Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[JohnBriggs12]

Granted we are a long way from November. But I thought I'd throw this out there for discussion anyway.

 

What do we know about Josh Hamilton? He'll be a FA after this year assuming Texas doesn't sign him. He's extremely close to Brewer hitting coach Johnny Narron. Given his age, past issues, and injuries, he's not expected to command quite what his numbers/age combo could expect though who knows given his monster numbers so far this season. The Brewers potentially have money to spend if they part with at least 2 of Greinke, Wolf and Marcum along with K-Rod.

[Baldkin]

Can he play SS?

 

Someone will pay him 20M a year, he's averaged something like 110 games per year for his career. I'd rather the Brewers spend that money on Greinke.

[3and2Fastball]

I think that the very close friendship with Johnny Narron does indeed give the Brewers a slight chance to land Hamilton.

 

Hamilton gave a (somewhat) intriguing interview with the MLB Network yesterday in which he eluded to the fact that the support system with the Rangers won't necessarily be a deciding factor in terms of who he signs with. He went on to say that the biggest part of his support system (his wife, his Father-in-Law, his religious ties) will go with him to wherever he signs with. So the connection with Narron would certainly help the Brewers' chances but likely won't help them get a discount.

[jerichoholicninja]

He's a great player but Milwaukee can't afford to pay him what he'll get when he regularly misses months at a time.

 

Also, this might be blue-worthy but probably not, would he play for a team called the Brewers and for a city and state that is so heavily linked to beer and alcohol?

[JohnBriggs12]

So we pay guys like Aram instead? Seriously all these arguments against signing him are given by pundits as to why he won't get the super big bucks.

 

In 3 of the last 4 years, he's had at least 538 plate appearances and he's a difference maker when he's on the field. Are you kidding me about the team being called the Brewers being a problem? Have you ever been to Dallas? The night life there is pretty darn enticing to young athletes.

 

Yes he'd come with risks, but also with a ton of upside too.

[Outlander]

I'm sure there will be teams like the Dodger willing to overpay at 20 million plus a year so I would guess the chances are around zero.

[Baldkin]

Because what the Brewers need is more outfielders....

 

If he's signing here for 10-15M a year, of course you'd want him, but when he signs a 6 year 130M deal, you really think the Brewers should sign him for that?

 

He's played the majority of his games in LF, I don't think he'd hold up playing CF for a full season.

 

Again, be realistic. What would you have the Brewers pay to sign him?

[PrinceEatMeat]

The Brewers would never pay to sign him. If they were looking to shell out big bucks they would've just kept Prince and been done with it. I personally don't think anyone should risk signing him to the type of deal he'll command, and especially not the Brewers.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd prefer to retain Greinke because it seems easier to find offense relatively cheap. I think that Hamilton will come a bit cheaper than Pujols//Fielder, but not much. I bet someone will throw him 6 years in the $120-$150 million range, far too rich for the Brewers' blood. Probably that someone will be Texas.

[monty57]

Barring further moves, going into this offseason the Brewers will have four center fielders (Morgan, Gomez, Aoki, Schafer) under their control, an MVP left fielder and All-Star right fielder. They will not have a shortstop and will only have one MLB starting pitcher, with an option on another and a big injury question mark on a third. Hamilton is a great player, and his comback is worthy of a Hollywood movie, but the Brewers will have to use their monetary resources on an area of greater need.

 

Now, if we go on a big selling binge and end up with a bunch of good, young pre-arby players all over the field, then maybe he'd be an option. But even then, it's probably not a good idea for a mid-market team like the Brewers to pay 1/4 to 1/3 of their payroll on a guy who never plays more than 120 games a year. People are throwing the $30MM/year number around with Hamilton... no thanks.

 

So we pay guys like Aram instead?

 

You're right, they shouldn't have made that deal. If they hadn't, they'd have greater flexibility to add better players in future years. However, they did sign that deal, so yes, instead of Greinke or someone else, we pay guys like Aram instead.

[TheCrew07]

You're right, they shouldn't have made that deal. If they hadn't, they'd have greater flexibility to add better players in future years. However, they did sign that deal, so yes, instead of Greinke or someone else, we pay guys like Aram instead.

 

Wonderfully put, every contract effects all the rest.

[brettac1]

The Dodgers are a really good guess, I think.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The Dodgers will be throwing money at everyone this offseason. I would imagine that'll include Hamilton. Probably Greinke too. And Hamels.

[endaround]

Ramirez and Hamilton had the same offensive season last year. Stupid Melvin and his contracts!

[TheCrew07]

Ramirez and Hamilton had the same offensive season last year. Stupid Melvin and his contracts!

 

Of course you neglect to mention the age difference, the fact that Hamilton is a better athlete, that Hamilton has the much higher ceiling, that Hamilton has the ability to play premium a defensive position, and then you based the comparison on a single season.

 

There are plenty of reasons I wouldn't sign Hamilton for this team at this moment but none of that has anything to do with Ramirez' backloaded contract which lasts into his later 30s and contains a huge buyout for his age 37 season.

 

The 2 situations and players are completely dissimilar in every way.

[monty57]

Could it be that a couple million "dumb Cub fans" are correct? We'll get 30 HR out of Ramirez, but 20 of them will come after we've already given up on the season and traded away Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and Hart?

[RockCoCougars]

If he's gonna hit 30, he had better get on his horse. I'd be thrilled with anything over 20 at this point.

[monty57]

Well, he could get ten from Opening Day to trade deadline (end of July) and then get ten in August and ten in September :-)

 

In his three-year splits, he's hit for a .777 OPS pre-All-Star game and .892 after the All-Star game. April and May are far-and-away his worst months (.707 & .658 OPS). Sept is the next lowest at .856. This year, he's at .645 in April and .673 in May, .652 overall.

 

He'll heat up, but the frustration we're feeling to start this season is the reason all of my Cub fan friends were always frustrated with him, and were happy to see him go. When you put a guy in the cleanup spot, and he hits like Cesar Izturis for the first two months of the season, it's hard to get off to a good start.

[3and2Fastball]

There are times when I get way too far into numbers...but it seems to me when you have a player like Ramirez who never hits well in the beginning of the season, you should hit him 7th to start out the season and then move him to cleanup in June. Otherwise it is like beating your head against the wall. (The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over & over again and expecting a different result)

 

Back to Hamilton (and numbers). Right now in 29 games played Hamilton has 15 HR's, 38 RBI's, and is batting .395 with a 1.274 OPS. *If* he can stay healthy, and granted with Hamilton that is always a big "if", playing in that ballpark surrounded by that lineup he'll have a very good shot at the Triple Crown.

 

I have no doubt at all that a team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Dodgers will absolutely break the bank for him, even with all the risk factors, if that happens

[RockCoCougars]

Turning this into an OT thread, but the thing with Ramirez is that he's not been abysmal throughout his career in the early season, it's mostly been the past few seasons. Maybe it's a fluke, maybe it has something to do with age but it's going to be tough for him to keep getting hot later in the season to save his overall numbers. I think that he's going to turn it around yet this season, but I don't expect him to do what he did last year.

[monty57]

I have no doubt at all that a team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Dodgers will absolutely break the bank for him, even with all the risk factors, if that happens

 

This will probably come down to the same situation as Pujols and Fielder. He will end up staying in the AL, because a team will offer him 9-10 years and no NL team will touch that since they don't have the option of moving him to DH later in his career. The Dodgers get thrown in because they were just bought for so much money, but Stan Kasten has been in baseball a long time, and I doubt he'd offer a 30-year old OF a 10 year deal, because as part owner he doesn't want to be paying a 40-year-old pinch hitter $30MM / year in the future.

[3and2Fastball]

Oh, I bet a 40 year old Josh Hamilton could handle playing 1B

[monty57]

Being 40, it's hard to admit this, but in the "post-steroid era," it's hard for anyone over 40 to handle anything. Here is a list of the current players over 40:

 

Jamie Moyer 11-18-1962 Colorado

Omar Vizquel 4-24-1967 Toronto

Mariano Rivera 11-29-1969 New York (AL)

Takashi Saito 2-14-1970 Arizona

Jim Thome 8-27-1970 Philadelphia

Darren Oliver 10-6-1970 Toronto

Jason Giambi 1-8-1971 Colorado

Miguel Batista 2-19-1971 New York (NL)

Henry Blanco 8-29-1971 Arizona

Jose Contreras 12-6-1971 Philadelphia

 

Of course Rivera is now hurt, and with him gone, I wouldn't want to be paying any of these guys anywhere near $20+MM/year right now. With the current trend of huge long-term deals, we could very well see a lot of $20MM bench players down the road. I just hope none of them are on the Brewers. I understand inflation, and maybe a decade from now $20MM in "basball money" will be like $10-15MM today, but it's still a tremendous risk.

[brettac1]

Oh, I bet a 40 year old Josh Hamilton could handle playing 1B

Hamilton is going to break down completely long before 40. He's a walking injury.

[mothershipconnection]

Hamilton's a risk for the guys with deep pockets to take, not for a team that would be destroyed by paying 25% of its payroll to hobble around on crutches.