Statistical Evidence That Brewer Defensive Shifts Had Huge Impact Last Year?

[rluzinski]

John Dewan is the author of the Fielding Bible and creater of DRS statistic. Like MGL's UZR metric, it utilizes batted ball trajectory and speed to estimate the odds of a particular ball being turned into an out. He had an interesting quote in a New York Times article pertaining to the Brewers:

 

"Dewan said that heading into 2011, the Milwaukee Brewers “may have had the absolute worst infield you could have put together,” but by increasing from 22 defensive shifts in 2010 to 170 shifts in 2011, they saved themselves 56 runs."

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/sports/baseball/rays-manager-joe-maddon-is-the-king-of-shifts.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all

 

56 runs is absolutely huge, obviously. That's 5-6 extra wins. That would cost you around $25 mil in terms of player talent to buy on the open market! I am a little skeptical of such a large number but it is certainly interesting.

 

EDIT: Looks like my skepticism was justifiable. The 56 runs was the Brewers improvement for the infield overall, compared to 2010:

 

https://twitter.com/#!/BenJedlovec/status/199938924947316736

 

More discussions here:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rays_shifts/#comments

[jerichoholicninja]

I think it has been pretty obvious that the shift works but I would be interested in seeing how often it doesn't. How often was a ball hit where a guy would normally be playing but wasn't because of the shift. That would tell you how effective it is overall.

[monty57]

I think the Brewers were kind of the guinea pig, and since it worked for them last year more teams are using it this season. Your even starting to see some RH sluggers getting the "LH slugger shift" utilized against them. I wouldn't be surprised to see the shifts become standard operating procedure in MLB in a few seasons.

[brettac1]

I would say the Rays were the guinea pig that really started the dramatic shifting. I love Joe Maddon.

[DHonks]

actually, I like to consider myself the king of shifting! As Santa Clara University we participated in the Sunday afternoon intramurals mens softball league. We hardly ever had our full squad there, and this Law School squad had a couple of former HS jocks (they were the one team to show up with their own bats, spikes on, etc). This one lefty would always crush the softball. I played first base usually, and I decided that I was tired of giving up home runs to the guy so instead of positioning all the soccer player fast guys in our OF I just jogged out there to a spot. So to summarize, we played with no one on the right side of the infield. The SS stayed on the bag to field a throw from the OF, and we used 5 OFs, with the 1b playing the deep RF position. His next 5 AB's against us wound up being flyouts to me in the longest F-3 putouts I've ever seen. So yeah, I take credit!

[rluzinski]

I don't think there's any doubt that shifting can work, the question is the why, when and how. In that New York Times article, Dewan was quoted as saying that there are 100 guys who are worth shifting against. That's around about three guys a team. If we start seeing the Brewers employing big shifts against half a dozen guys a game, they are probably getting a little out of control.

 

Also, I suspect the actual run prevention effect is not huge but I have nothing to back that hunch up with, without knowing how drastic shifting can suppress a batter's BABIP.