Possible SS Replacements

[3and2Fastball]

wow Jurickson Profar for Greinke and K-Rod would be an incredible deal for the Brewers. I would be absolutely thrilled with that.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Greinke/k-rod/half of k-rods salary for profar and barret loux

[RWeeksFan23]

Texas looks like the real deal this season and I wonder if they'd be interested in an upgrade from Matt Harrison. Is there any chance Jurickson Profar could be had for Greinke? Elvis Andrus is still under contract for 2 more years so it's not like they are hurting at shortstop. Milwaukee desperately needs a shortstop and Profar would be a huge upgrade over anyone in their entire system. He probably won't be ready until 2014 but he is top 10 prospect. Is this a fair deal? Maybe we could even include KRod in the deal considering their closer has an ERA over 11? Then of course we'd have to ask for more. But assuming the Brewers are still struggling at the break is Texas a team we can strike a deal with and finally walk away with a shortstop?

That trade makes sense for both teams, but lord knows the Brewers front office won't make a trade like that/be sellers.

[Funketown]

Can Fontenot play a decent defensive SS? He could probably hold his own at the plate and would certainly be a big offensive upgrade over anything we throw out there.

[monty57]

Texas looks like the real deal this season and I wonder if they'd be interested in an upgrade from Matt Harrison. Is there any chance Jurickson Profar could be had for Greinke? Elvis Andrus is still under contract for 2 more years so it's not like they are hurting at shortstop. Milwaukee desperately needs a shortstop and Profar would be a huge upgrade over anyone in their entire system. He probably won't be ready until 2014 but he is top 10 prospect. Is this a fair deal? Maybe we could even include KRod in the deal considering their closer has an ERA over 11? Then of course we'd have to ask for more. But assuming the Brewers are still struggling at the break is Texas a team we can strike a deal with and finally walk away with a shortstop?

That trade makes sense for both teams, but lord knows the Brewers front office won't make a trade like that/be sellers.

 

This is exactly the type of trade I'd love to see if the Brewers are still out of it in a month or so. I too have doubts that Attanasio/Melvin will do this, but it would really brighten the outlook for the Brewers through 2020 or so. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think "average" Brewer fans are as dumb as they're sometimes portrayed. They didn't like being lied to by Selig, but they started showing up in droves once the team started showing that they were doing what they could to build a winning franchise, including trading Sexson and signing their high draft picks. The moves were explained to the fans, and they bought into it - it wasn't just about what was happening on the MLB field. They would understand trading someone who was going to leave at the end of the season for a top-notch prospect, as long as it's not about the owners pocketing money, but about getting better for the future.

 

Make the trade, sell it as "We sat down with Greinke and he said he wanted to test free agency and we respect that. We want to win as much as the fans want us to win, but we couldn't pass up the opportunity to pick up a young player who we think will become one of the best shortstops in the league." Many fans are down on Greinke anyways because his ERA isn't where they'd like it and "he can't win on the road," so when Greinke signs a $100+MM deal this offseason, they'll be happy the Brewers got something for him and will continue buying tickets to Brewer games.

[3and2Fastball]

One would think that if the Brewers traded Greinke & K-Rod for Profar (and I doubt the Rangers would be foolish enough to do that, but maybe, it would certainly help the Rangers' chances to win the World Series this year), then I have no doubt that Melvin/Mark A would turn around in the off-season and spend the Greinke/K-Rod $$$ on a fairly big name free agent, so it wouldn't necessarily hurt the Brewers too much in terms of fan reaction.... certainly not longterm

[RockCoCougars]

If I'm trading Greinke for this Profar guy this early in the season, he had better turn into the next ARod, Ripken or Yount. Realistically, odds are he will be probably be the next Royce Clayton- if he's lucky. I'd be the first to show up tonight at Miller Park with a burning pitchfork if they gave up on the season (and likely started a rebuild) to acquire a 19 year old AA shortstop.

[CheezWizHed]

Believe it or not all these injuries may end up being a good thing.

 

Getting some picks by trading away players might be an ok consolation prize, but its never a "good thing" to miss a decent shot at the playoffs...

[monty57]

If I'm trading Greinke for this Profar guy this early in the season, he had better turn into the next ARod, Ripken or Yount. Realistically, odds are he will be probably be the next Royce Clayton- if he's lucky. I'd be the first to show up tonight at Miller Park with a burning pitchfork if they gave up on the season (and likely started a rebuild) to acquire a 19 year old AA shortstop.

 

I just want to go on record that I've always stated "in a month or so..." or "...in late June/early July," and I've usually included something along the lines of "...if things go right and we're at or near the top of the division at that time we'll look to upgrade." There's no way we're going to sell on May 10, and I don't think any poster on this site is suggesting we start a selloff now.

 

However, if things don't turn around and if we have more injuries or poor play, and we're still scraping the bottom of the division in late June/early July, then I sure would like to get some good prospects back in trade rather than watching Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod throwing meaningless innings prior to bolting for free agency.

 

If we tried to trade for any useful player right now, the other team would ask the world in return, as (just like the Brewers) no one is giving up on the season this early. That would mean the even someone like Yuni would require us giving up someone like Taylor Green. I would be the first to show up with a pitchfork (okay, I'd actually probably just spend less time watching the Brewers over the next few summers) if we traded away any of our few decent prospects for Yuni Betancourt or some 36-year-old band-aid upgrade right now. It's going to be hard enough to field a decent team next year after losing Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod (and probably Narveson). I'd hate to lose any of our young guys who could help the team over the next few years just to increase the playoff odds this year by a smidge.

[RockCoCougars]

I just want to go on record that I've always stated "in a month or so..." or "...in late June/early July," and I've usually included something along the lines of "...if things go right and we're at or near the top of the division at that time we'll look to upgrade." There's no way we're going to sell on May 10, and I don't think any poster on this site is suggesting we start a selloff now.

 

This makes more sense. If the team is out of the race in July, I'd look into some deals. I want to get half a season under the belt before I think about that though.

[TheCrew07]

If I'm trading Greinke for this Profar guy this early in the season, he had better turn into the next ARod, Ripken or Yount. Realistically, odds are he will be probably be the next Royce Clayton- if he's lucky. I'd be the first to show up tonight at Miller Park with a burning pitchfork if they gave up on the season (and likely started a rebuild) to acquire a 19 year old AA shortstop.

 

Every prospect doesn't have better odds of being a bust than he does being a success, I grow weary of this continual argument being used in any number of situations. If you have a legitimate concern about a particular player then by all means bring it, but generic over generalizations don't add anything to the discussion at all.

 

I'm not sure "this Profar guy" is a realistic target, but you clearly don't know anything about him by your statement, unless of course you were being excessively hateful without cause. It's an interesting discussion and he's exactly the type of young player the Brewers should be looking to acquire via trade. For the record this whom is being discussed, he profiles nothing like Royce Clayton:

 

2. Jurickson Profar, ss Born: Feb. 20, 1993 B-T: B-R Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 165

Signed: Curacao, 2009. Signed by: Mike Daly/Chu Halabi/Jose Felomina.

Jurickson ProfarBackground: Signed for a then-franchise international record $1.55 million out of Curacao in 2009, Profar has been on the prospect radar since he was 11 and starred on the 2004 Little League World Series championship team from Curacao. In his first taste of full-season ball in 2011, he won MVP honors in the low Class A South Atlantic League at age 18.

 

Scouting Report: Profar offers a rare combination of present five-tool ability and additional projection. A natural righthanded hitter, he didn't start switch-hitting until after he signed, but he has a smooth swing and great bat speed from both sides. His swing has more leverage and loft from the right side, and some scouts see only gap power while others predict 20-plus homers annually once he fills out. He's a pure hitter with exceptional strike-zone awareness for his age. Profar has average speed that plays up on the bases and in the field because of his elite instincts. He's electrifying defensively, with plus range and arm strength to go along with soft hands and a quick release.

 

The Future: One scout compared him to Hanley Ramirez with Dustin Pedroia's makeup. Profar will open 2012 at high Class A Myrtle Beach at age 19. With Elvis Andrus entrenched at shortstop in Texas, Profar probably won't break in with the Rangers at that position, but he has all the ingredients to be a future superstar no matter where he plays.

 

He's the #2 prospect in a very deep Texas system and BA has him as the #7 prospect in all of baseball at age 19. This Profar guy is also playing in AA as 19 year old, his current hit streak stands at 19 games, and he is currently sporting a .785 OPS. He'll develop more power as he ages and if he were in most any other organization he'd be in the majors sometime next season. I've read as much if not more about him this season than any prospect not named Taveras or Harper. He'll be the #1 prospect in baseball after the 2012 if Dylan Bundy doesn't supplant him.

[3and2Fastball]

yeah Profar looks a lot more like a Barry Larkin type than a Royce Clayton type.... I think Greinke & K-Rod for Profar would be a great trade for both sides, but I'd be absolutely shocked if Melvin pulled that off.

 

At any rate, if we are sellers at the deadline we should be looking for a highly rated SS prospect, someone we can keep for 6 years... and absolutely Profar would be at the top of the list of a guy who could conceivably be available

[paul253]

Getting some picks by trading away players might be an ok consolation prize, but its never a "good thing" to miss a decent shot at the playoffs...

 

What I meant was that the injuries may make it more likely to trade away the guys that are going to walk away anyway. I only say it because the team, while they may have the potential, look nothing like a playoff team. And that's not just because of the injuries. Lack of depth is a huge part of it.

 

It's nice to get comp picks but let's be realistic which would you rather have? The 27th and 38th picks (like you got for Fielder) or a shortstop who is already in AA and is considered a top prospect? The Brewers need a lot of help. I understand that nobody wants to go into a rebuilding mode but trading these guys may actually prevent the rebuilding mode, or certainly help make it go by quicker.

[RockCoCougars]

Every prospect doesn't have better odds of being a bust than he does being a success, I grow weary of this continual argument being used in any number of situations. If you have a legitimate concern about a particular player then by all means bring it, but generic over generalizations don't add anything to the discussion at all.

 

Well according to baseballreference, Royce was the #6 prospect by Baseball America in 1992 (behind Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Chipper Jones and Arthur Rhodes.... just ahead of Wil Cordero). Clayton had a similar frame (small). The only major difference that I see is that Profar is a SH and has shown a smidge of power at his age.

 

I plead guilty to viewing prospects with a jaded eye.... but I think that there is another extreme with people who get carried away with Baseball America prospect ratings to the point where they want trade as many veterans as possible to stockpile these guys, sight unseen. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but I guarantee you if you go back 20 years and look, more of the Top 25 prospects have been busts than stars.

[3and2Fastball]

Absolutely there are plenty of busts among Top Prospects, however despite the fact that I'm not a math genius I know that Zero Top Prospects equals 100% busts. And we have Zero Top Prospects ("ZTP") in our entire organization at the premium position of SS.

 

It makes sense to me to try to parlay as many trade chips who are just going to leave via free agency anyways into as many Top Prospects as possible. Marcum, Greinke, K-Rod, Corey Hart... there is real trade value in those 4 players, maybe especially Hart because he won't be a free agent until after 2013.

 

If it looks like, in June, that we aren't going to win the World Series this year no matter what, then we'd be foolish to not make a lot of trades

[MJLiverock]

I just want to add seeing the names Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor brought back memories of rookie baseball card busts for me.

[Baldkin]

I just want to add seeing the names Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor brought back memories of rookie baseball card busts for me.

 

I remember seeing TVP's first pro start for the Madison Muskies.

[RockCoCougars]

I just want to add seeing the names Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor brought back memories of rookie baseball card busts for me.

 

I remember seeing TVP's first pro start for the Madison Muskies.

 

I remember the hype when he was sent to Madison. The Braves are extremely lucky that they went for Van Poppel's smokescreen that he was going to college at Texas and wouldn't sign a deal. They ended up with Chipper Jones instead.

[TheCrew07]

he truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but I guarantee you if you go back 20 years and look, more of the Top 25 prospects have been busts than stars.

 

This has already been done numerous times, THT or BP did study on it about 5 years ago which is the most recent study I recall, top position player prospects have a success right around 50% while pitchers were something like 30%. The difference isn't talent, it's in the criteria used to judge the end result. Pitchers fail more often than not because of injury since they tend to be pushed too far before their bodies are mature, not because they can't throw strikes or get people out. If Prior had a been a Ray instead of a Cub, he might still be pitching today, we just don't know.

[RockCoCougars]

he truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but I guarantee you if you go back 20 years and look, more of the Top 25 prospects have been busts than stars.

 

This has already been done numerous times, THT or BP did study on it about 5 years ago which is the most recent study I recall, top position player prospects have a success right around 50% while pitchers were something like 30%. The difference isn't talent, it's in the criteria used to judge the end result. Pitchers fail more often than not because of injury since they tend to be pushed too far before their bodies are mature, not because they can't throw strikes or get people out. If Prior had a been a Ray instead of a Cub, he might still be pitching today, we just don't know.

 

Thanks, this sounds about what I had guessed. My original post was in the context of trading ZG sooner rather than later (like the CC trade around the 4th of July). Bottom line, Greinke is a bonafide ace... 100% (unless he gets hurt). In my view, you don't trade someone like that for basically a coinflip, unless you are hopelessly out of the race AND have no chance at extending Grienke. I fail to see a legit reason that the Brewers can't do the latter.

 

Now, if the Brewers are 9.5 games out in mid July and Grienke demands a trade or something, I'll do that deal yesterday.

[monty57]

I fail to see a legit reason that the Brewers can't do the latter.

 

I was excited at the prospect of extending Greinke, but Brewer brass sat at the table with him and the sides pretty much immediately broke off talks. To me that either means the Brewers offered him a laughable contract, which doesn't seem to fit the Melvin/Attanasio m.o., or it means that Greinke is asking for a monster contract, which the Brewers would probably be best to pass on. This was pretty much the same thing that happened with Fielder, so I would be surprised to see Greinke in a Brewer uniform beyond this season.

 

Therefore, it comes down to whether the value of Greinke as a Brewer this year plus the comp picks we'd receive would be greater than what we could get in trade. As long as we have a legitiamte playoff shot, the value of Greinke as a Brewer remains high, but the longer we stay near the bottom, those starts get less and less valueable to us. Thankfully, they would be extremely valueable to a team in the playoff hunt, so we have an "out" if the season goes the wrong way.

[TheCrew07]

For those that are curious about prospect success rates:

 

I went looking for the article and found this post, which has the previous studies I remembered linked.

 

One thing to remember is that the result of these studies is largely determined by the sample size and criteria used. This particular one looks at prospects from 1990 to 2003, regardless this type of analysis is why I'm constantly arguing for more prospects, not less, as they are the only way to control cost and maintain success for an MLB team like Milwaukee.

 

Also, many fringe 100 players like a Corey Hart (he was included as he topped out at 91 but using him as an example) aren't taken into consideration even though they go on to have productive MLB careers. Essentially this is just a snapshot of the 3 best prospects in every organization each year so your players that top out in that 100-110 range are not considered.

[paul253]

Bottom line, Greinke is a bonafide ace... 100% (unless he gets hurt). In my view, you don't trade someone like that for basically a coinflip, unless you are hopelessly out of the race AND have no chance at extending Grienke. I fail to see a legit reason that the Brewers can't do the latter.

So instead they let him walk so they can win what, 4 more games this year? If those 4 games are the difference between the playoffs and no playoffs then you keep him. But with the injuries and the lack of production we're seeing....something is going to have to majorly change for me to believe this team is a playoff team. I like Greinke as much as the next guy and really wish he'd re-sign, but at some point you need to be real. If he is going to leave, and Melvin will have a better idea about that than anyone of us, and you aren't going to make the playoffs then you'd be dumb not to trade him. Milwaukee has got to start maximizing the value of the some of their players. If Milwaukee doesn't make these trades then it is likely that over a two year period Milwaukee will have lost Fielder, Greinke, Marcum, and KRod and gotten nothing more than 4 draft picks in return. You can't sustain a franchise like that.

Now, if the Brewers are 9.5 games out in mid July and Grienke demands a trade or something, I'll do that deal yesterday.

 

I don't think anyone really disagrees with this. I'd use the more official all-star break which is early-mid July but it's essentially the same thing. I'd say if Milwaukee is 8 or more games out by the all-star break we start listening to offers for Greinke, Marcum, KRod, Weeks, and Hart. Not saying you trade all of them, just listen to offers and take the good deals.

[Bombers]

Is Renteria at all an option? I am done watching Izturis. We need to do something at this position. It seems like the outfielders play at about 250 feet from him when he bats. (Next time he comes to the plate take a look at how far they move up. It's ridiculous.)

[JohnBriggs12]

Is Renteria at all an option? I am done watching Izturis. We need to do something at this position. It seems like the outfielders play at about 250 feet from him when he bats. (Next time he comes to the plate take a look at how far they move up. It's ridiculous.)

 

While I agree with you assessment but be careful what you wish for. Remember when everyone wanted Clint Barmes instead of Yuni last year and in this offseason? His offense so far this year is Weeks without the walks or the power. Speaking of Weeks, if he were hitting, the lack of offense at SS wouldn't be so damaging.

 

Honestly, what have they got to lose bringing up Bianchi and giving him the job for 2 months? They can always go back to Izturis.