Gamel's Injury (Torn ACL, needs surgery, likely done for year)

[Invader3K]

It's one thing to take a picture and post it of the player...another when he's with his family, especially his children. That's a little invasive for my tastes.

 

Yeah, I agree. Tad on the stalker-ish side.

[djoctagone]

since there's talk of putting mat gamel in the arizona fall league (which starts 9 october), is there a chance of gamel being activated before the regular season ends on 3 october?

[djoctagone]

as reported here, mat gamel will not be able to return before the end of the regular season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It'll be interesting to see if Gamel switches positions in the AFL, or at least sees time somewhere besides 1B.

[reillymcshane]

I'm thinking the team will go with Hart at 1B in 2013. That leaves Mat out of a starting spot.

 

But I hope he can still make the team - playing 1B, 3B, DH, corner OF spots and PH. A quality lefthanded bat would be welcome on the bench. He could still get some significant ABs - figure 10-15 starts at 3B, another 10 at 1B, a few in the OF, 10 more at DH - that's 30-40 starts. And then there's pinch hitting. He could easily get 200 ABs.

 

And don't forget injuries. He could get more PT if someone goes down for an extended time.

 

Taylor Green could fill this role as well - but I like Mat's bat better.

 

I think we could have a pretty decent bench next year if we go with the following:

 

- Maldonado - right handed ©

- Gamel - left handed (back up 3B, 1B, DH)

- Bianchi - right handed (middle infield) - this is assuming Segura - someone else - starts

- Schafer - left handed (OF)

- Reed Johnson - right handed (OF) - I'd sign a guy like Johnson - a right handed hitting OF who can play at least the corners (preferably CF in a pinch as well).

 

I think it's a nice, balanced bench with a little bit of pop.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I'd be really happy with that bench. It's far better than the majority of benches we've had in recent years.

[torts]

I'm thinking the team will go with Hart at 1B in 2013. That leaves Mat out of a starting spot.

 

But I hope he can still make the team - playing 1B, 3B, DH, corner OF spots and PH. A quality lefthanded bat would be welcome on the bench. He could still get some significant ABs - figure 10-15 starts at 3B, another 10 at 1B, a few in the OF, 10 more at DH - that's 30-40 starts. And then there's pinch hitting. He could easily get 200 ABs.

 

And don't forget injuries. He could get more PT if someone goes down for an extended time.

 

Taylor Green could fill this role as well - but I like Mat's bat better.

 

I think we could have a pretty decent bench next year if we go with the following:

 

- Maldonado - right handed ©

- Gamel - left handed (back up 3B, 1B, DH)

- Bianchi - right handed (middle infield) - this is assuming Segura - someone else - starts

- Schafer - left handed (OF)

- Reed Johnson - right handed (OF) - I'd sign a guy like Johnson - a right handed hitting OF who can play at least the corners (preferably CF in a pinch as well).

 

I think it's a nice, balanced bench with a little bit of pop.

 

even taking Johnson off that bench and leaving Ishikawa on it (he's still got all of his Arb years left) would be pretty solid.

[DHonks]

I'd definitely move Mat to RF for next year. OF should be low stress on the knee. Aoki can play CF for a season or two

[The stache]

Where do you play Gomez then? Unless you want to platoon Gamel and Aoki in Right, and Gomez and Schaffer in center. I'd be good with that.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd definitely move Mat to RF for next year. OF should be low stress on the knee. Aoki can play CF for a season or two

 

Outfield would be more stressful on the knee. At first base you stand and make short jogs for the most part. The outfield requires all out sprints.

[Nottso]

Where do you play Gomez then? Unless you want to platoon Gamel and Aoki in Right, and Gomez and Schaffer in center. I'd be good with that.

 

Why would you platoon Gamel with Aoki? Since they both hit left handed how would you decide which one plays on which day? I looked at both of their career platoon splits and came up with:

 

Aoki vs LHP = .258 avg. .309 OBP .669 OPS

Aoki vs RHP = .304 avg. .380 OBP .810 OPS

 

Gamel vs LHP = .267 avg. .313 OBP .690 OPS

Gamel vs RHP = .221 avg. .303 OBP .667 OPS

 

I realize these are both small samples, but over their careers Gamel has been only slightly better than Aoki vs LHP while Aoki has been much better than Gamel vs RHP. Is Gamel's .021 higher OPS against LHP reason to play him over Aoki against LHP, or would it be better to just play Aoki every day and keep Gamel on the bench? I'm asking because I don't know what I might be missing here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Now with the expected departure of Morgan, I suppose there is an opportunity for a 4th OF spot if he were to prove capable of playing RF. And his ability to also play 1b could also render Ishikawa type expendable too as a ph/backup to Hart. I do think Gomez has nailed down the CF job, though he'll have enough slumps that he'll be sat from time to time. That should give him the potential for 250-300 AB's over the course of a season. His future in the big leagues will depend greatly on how he'd do over those opportunities.

 

But he's got a lot of proving to do in a very short time coming off a lost season at a time which for most guys is mid career. Not only was it a lost season for him, he really wasn't missed all that much either. In fact, it could have been a plus as Aoki was found to be a more than adequate leadoff hitter. We don't know if he can handle part time work (he's never shown over time he can start or come off the bench with any great success). Defensively he's a novice in RF. What are the Brewers other options for that role? I'm sure they will look into other available guys to compete with him. Schafer could still figure in as well.

[Baldkin]

 

Aoki vs LHP = .258 avg. .309 OBP .669 OPS

Aoki vs RHP = .304 avg. .380 OBP .810 OPS

 

Gamel vs LHP = .267 avg. .313 OBP .690 OPS

Gamel vs RHP = .221 avg. .303 OBP .667 OPS

 

 

Shhh. Don't bring actual stats into the discussion. Aoki hits lefties better! RRR told us so! Many times!

[rluzinski]

I looked at both of their career platoon splits and came up with:

 

Aoki vs LHP = .258 avg. .309 OBP .669 OPS

Aoki vs RHP = .304 avg. .380 OBP .810 OPS

 

Gamel vs LHP = .267 avg. .313 OBP .690 OPS

Gamel vs RHP = .221 avg. .303 OBP .667 OPS

 

I realize these are both small samples...

 

These samples are so small that they are 100% worthless. We probably have to assume that both players have career average LH/RH splits for one. Gamel has 269 career MLB PA's, including 48 against LHP's.

 

And where did you get Aoki's splits? Do they include his Japanese stats because they don't match up with his major league splits:

 

posting.php?mode=quote&f=63&p=815352

 

My guess for Aoki as a full time starter next year is something like .290/.340/.400. That is not bad for a RF making peanuts but it's nothing to get excited about either. I would expect Gamel to give us more power than that, although that is nothing more than an educated guess (mostly based on minor league numbers).

[reillymcshane]

I think the team goes with Corey at 1B, Aoki in RF and Gomez in CF next year. Gomez and Aoki might not start 150 games - maybe 130 or 140 - but you have Schafer to get some starts in CF, and a right hander - like Reed Johnson - in right.

 

That means Mat's job is to back up 1B and 3B, plus play some DH and PH. It's up to him to be ready for that job. If he does well, opportunities will arise. Guys get injured (as he learned). From 2009-11, A-Ram missed 80, 38 and 13 games, respectively. Corey missed 47, 17 and 32 games in that same time span. Also, guys play poorly and get benched. If Mat does well in his role, he should be ready to play more when he's needed.

[Nottso]

I looked at both of their career platoon splits and came up with:

 

Aoki vs LHP = .258 avg. .309 OBP .669 OPS

Aoki vs RHP = .304 avg. .380 OBP .810 OPS

 

Gamel vs LHP = .267 avg. .313 OBP .690 OPS

Gamel vs RHP = .221 avg. .303 OBP .667 OPS

 

I realize these are both small samples...

 

These samples are so small that they are 100% worthless. We probably have to assume that both players have career average LH/RH splits for one. Gamel has 269 career MLB PA's, including 48 against LHP's.

 

And where did you get Aoki's splits? Do they include his Japanese stats because they don't match up with his major league splits:

 

posting.php?mode=quote&f=63&p=815352

 

My guess for Aoki as a full time starter next year is something like .290/.340/.400. That is not bad for a RF making peanuts but it's nothing to get excited about either. I would expect Gamel to give us more power than that, although that is nothing more than an educated guess (mostly based on minor league numbers).

 

"These samples are so small that they are 100% worthless."

If that's all the data Baseball Reference has, that's all the data Baseball Reference has (or all that I could find). If we can't use the data given, limited as it is, how would you evaluate, project, and/or compare these 2 guys?

 

"And where did you get Aoki's splits?"

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=aokino01&year=Career&t=b

[Katuluu]

Outfield would be more stressful on the knee. At first base you stand and make short jogs for the most part. The outfield requires all out sprints.

 

Running actually isn't very stressful on your knees (or at least your ACL), the cutting and planting done in the infield is far more stressful. When you rehab you are doing sprints far sooner than you are able to plan and cut.

[rluzinski]

If that's all the data Baseball Reference has, that's all the data Baseball Reference has (or all that I could find). If we can't use the data given, limited as it is, how would you evaluate, project, and/or compare these 2 guys?

 

Like I said, regarding RH/LH splits, you are forced to basically assume they both have league average splits. It takes a very large sample (1,000+) before an individual split tells you more than an average one. The Book studied the matter:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/c06.shtml

 

For a projection for Gamel, you have to rely on mostly his minor league numbers and scouting information. For Aoki, you can include his Japanese numbers but that is problematic as well. Basically, both players are difficult to project with a high degree of accuracy but my best guess would be to assume Gamel will be the better hitter next year. Of course, fielding and base running have to be considered as well. I just don't see Aoki being a very exciting option in RF next year but he wouldn't be bad either.

 

And the MLB splits you posted for Aoki appear to be wrong. That is why I questioned it.

[bork]

Haudricourt tweeted that Gamel is taking fly balls in RF during early workouts.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yep, Gamel in RF makes the most sense at this point. He could see a decent amount of starts out there, and still backup 1B, 3B, and also DH in interleague games. There will still be at-bats for him next year. It mostly hinges on how well Aoki and Gomez play though I guess. That will determine how many starts are available in the OF. Schafer will also factor in to some extent as well.

[Invader3K]

I really don't see how we have room for him in RF given how good Aoki has been this year.

[rluzinski]

I really don't see how we have room for him in RF given how good Aoki has been this year.

 

Aoki has a .284/.353/.415/.768 line. I'm not going to complain about that but it is nothing special for a RF, either. I also wouldn't project him to hit better than that next year.

 

I'm not suggesting that Gamel is a slam dunk to be more valuable there in 2013 but I think it's reasonable to assume he projects to be better with the stick. I'm not sure what is the best thing to do for 2013 with the current pieces. If Aoki is a reasonable option in CF, I would be tempted to just do a straight platoon in CF with him and Gomez. Give Hart 1B full time and Gamel will start at least against RHP in RF. Melvin needs to find a #4 RH OF with a little pop as well.

[Oxy]

Having Hart, Aoki, Gomez and Gamel to cover CF, RF, 1B, and DH seems pretty close to ideal. It would have been nice to give Gamel a chance at being an everyday player before needing him as a well used reserve/platoon player, but it's nice to have the flexibility of 4 starting caliber players for 3 positions. 2 from the left side, 2 from the right side, with a nice mix of speed, defense, contact and power.

[igor67]

Time is certainly not on Gamel's side, but there is plenty of room on the roster for him if he can be the hitter he has always projected to be. His ceiling has always looked a lot like the line that Aramis has put up this year, which would almost certainly more than make-up for any defensive advantage Aoki would have. Even more moderate expectations of say an .800 OPS that is still a great guy to be able to mix and match.

[logan82]

I'm not suggesting that Gamel is a slam dunk to be more valuable there in 2013 but I think it's reasonable to assume he projects to be better with the stick.

I would agree with that but I think Aoki may offset most of the offense with better defense, maybe. I personally think that Gamel would be good in RF. He is athletic and seems to have good defensive instincts unlike Braun. I only bring up Braun because Gamel has been compared to Braun at 3B.

 

Personally I would go with Gamel in RF and a platoon of Gomez and Aoki in CF next year. I think that they will go with Gamel as a bench player unless he hits really well off the bench.