Rickie Weeks so far this season

[brewmann04]

It the manager job to give him a rest and give someone else a start and sit the struggling Weeks down.

[longball04]

(Ultimately, I think most folks are fine with him having a day off, although I'm skeptical of whether it would actually do any better than just letting him try to play through his slump.)

 

At this point, any production is better than no production. If this was Gamel (pre-injury) battling like this, Ishikawa would be spot starting or someone else sure would be. Take away the name (Weeks). Pretend you were the manager. If you had a starter hitting .170 on the year and second in the Majors in strikeouts, and you had a competent backup on the bench, wouldn't you sit that guy for a game to clear his head, let him take a day off from everything, and perhaps kick start his offensive game? At what point do you start to worry about Weeks? Do you seriously want a guy pressing and getting nothing out of it, batting .170 and hittin gin the #1 or #2 slot in your order?

 

My idea. Move Hart up to #2 and drop Weeks down to #5. Give it a week and see how it goes. It really couldn't hurt. Neither guy is really hitting the ball well right now. I see Corey swinging and missing a lot. Why not get some runners on in front of the guys who are actually hitting right now? If you are going to be this stubborn, as a manager, and let a guy work out of this prolonged slump with no off days, then why not switch up the lineup.

 

And Lucroy needs to stay right where he is at.

[logan82]

If this was Gamel (pre-injury) battling like this, Ishikawa would be spot starting or someone else sure would be.

I think that would have been the wrong choice.

 

 

Move Hart up to #2 and drop Weeks down to #5. Give it a week and see how it goes. It really couldn't hurt. Neither guy is really hitting the ball well right now. I see Corey swinging and missing a lot. Why not get some runners on in front of the guys who are actually hitting right now?

But you just said Hart isn't hitting either. I honestly wouldn't move either.

 

Give Weeks a day off. I think Weeks should have had at least 2 days off by now anyway. I think he should be getting about a day off every other week.

[longball04]

My point was supposed to be, if anyone else was struggling like he was, they would be given a day off. When A-Ram's average was dropping, at least he was putting the ball in play and getting robbed. I don't recall being able to make that comment on any of Rickie's recent balls he has put in play.

 

I have been advocating for Weeks to get a day off. I am just saying, if you aren't going to give him a day off, then move him in the order so we can find some production at the top of the order for Ryan and Ramirez to drive in.

[monty57]

I was pretty surprised that Weeks didn't get yesterday off. That would've been two off days in a row (with no Brewer game today) to "clear his head." Oh well, I guess we'll just have to collectivly give it the old "C'mon Rickie, the team needs you" cheer and hope his bat heats up sooner rather than later.

[rluzinski]

I guess when I look at a guy, I don't look at what he HAS done in his career. I look at what he is doing NOW.

 

Preseason ZiPS Projection: .260/.350/.460

Current Line: .164/.302/.302

Updated ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.441

 

The updated projection takes into account his bad start to the season. Without having any knowledge of what is causing his bad start (if anything), we can only presume that his updated projection is our best guess for his production for Friday. I can see an argument that projections are based on the average guy and Weeks' start is very un-average. I recall reading a study that showed players in extreme hot and cold streaks showed a SLIGHT persistence effect. Still, you are putting too much emphasis on his most recent production in terms of projecting future production. History shows us that.

[longball04]

Again, as a manager, I don't care about PAST or FUTURE predictions. I would like to think that RR is looking at current production and realizing he isn't producing. I just don't understand the mentality of RR and NOT giving him a day off. I understand the type of player that Rickie is and has been. I know what he is capable of. But at this point in time, he is not producing. So how does it hurt him or the team to give someone else a shot at not producing? It's just one game right?

[monty57]

I think there's two things there. First, everyone except Prince Fielder needs a day off now and then, so giving him a day off seems like a good idea.

 

However as far as the "isn't producing now" thing, the questions are:

 

1) Is he a good player? That can best be described by what he's done in the past. Based on what he's done in the past, Rickie is a good player.

2) Is there a physical reason he isn't performing? I don't know, but Roenicke should. I doubt he's putting him out there everyday if he's hurt.

3) When is he going to start hitting? No one knows, but since he is a good player, and all players go through hot and cold streaks, the only way to know when he's going to turn it around is to keep playing him. At some point, he's going to "start seeing the ball," and no one will be able to get him out.

 

So yes, I'd give him a day off, but I'd still put him out there almost every day, and since there's no one on the team other than Braun hitting the ball right now, I'd stick with Rickie in the #2 hole.

[longball04]

I'd stick with Rickie too, on an every day basis. I wasn't referring otherwise. But a day off isn't going to hurt the guy. Gotta try something to kick start him.

[Dollarbill13]

Again, as a manager, I don't care about PAST or FUTURE predictions. I would like to think that RR is looking at current production and realizing he isn't producing. I just don't understand the mentality of RR and NOT giving him a day off. I understand the type of player that Rickie is and has been. I know what he is capable of. But at this point in time, he is not producing. So how does it hurt him or the team to give someone else a shot at not producing? It's just one game right?

 

 

RR is probably looking at the schedule that they had both last Thursday and this Thursday off. He's probably figuring that it will do more good to give him a day off when they have a long stretch of games with no day off. He clearly thinks that Weeks needs to just work his way through his slump rather than clear his head. I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with giving him a day off right now, nor do I think there is anything wrong with letting him play through it. I'm sure there are many examples where a player snapped out of a slump after a day off. I'm equally sure that there are many examples where guys didn't break out of their slump after a day off. I would be curious to see if there is any evidence that a day off provides any benefit in breaking out of a slump.

[Ennder]

Again, as a manager, I don't care about PAST or FUTURE predictions. I would like to think that RR is looking at current production and realizing he isn't producing

 

I would think you would be fired pretty quickly if you did this. At the very least you would be a terrible manager.

[The stache]

I guess when I look at a guy, I don't look at what he HAS done in his career. I look at what he is doing NOW.

 

Metrics like BABIP are interesting, and can be very useful. But they should not be the be all end all, and I think too often people rely on them too heavily.

 

When someone are saying that Lucroy "should not be moved up in the order because he's going to fall back to his .260 average of last year"....really? If his AVG does fall to .260, isn't that a lot better than the .164 average Weeks has, and the .192 average Morgan has right now? Lucroy has had a lot of clutch hits this season. How many clutch hits have Morgan and Weeks had combined? They may come around, and I pray to God they do (or we're in for a long season). But they may not. How long do we wait before we try something new?

 

In a perfect world, we could point to past statistics, and use them as the justification for everything. But reading between the lines tells us that Jonathan Lucroy is only in his second year as a starter. He has less than 800 career at bats. Young hitters mature, just as veterans eventually tail off. Right now, Lucroy is the team's second best hitter. If his BABIP is up, can we really say that "he's only getting lucky, and that he's hitting the same number of ground balls, they're just going through" Or, is he getting better at controlling where the batted ball goes?

 

 

Maybe if Lucroy is moved up to the two spot, he flops. The way I look at it, he's been hot, and while that may or may not continue, we can't be any worse off with Lucroy near the top of the order, and we may be better. We just don't know how he'd respond to being moved up so much. Many Brewer fans might be surprised by just how good a hitter he becomes. He makes contact, and if it means Luc batting #2 gives us a few extra runners on base and in scoring position for Ryan Braun and A Ram...why not give it a go? He can always be moved back.

[Baldkin]

How long do we wait before we try something new?

 

The answer, of course, is all season, until you get a perfect in house replacement in AAA and a perfect in house replacement on the MLB roster. Only then is it okay to make any sort of a change.

 

Rickie is 2nd in the league in walks. He's more likely to keep on doing that than Lucroy is to continue with a .370 BABIP.

 

If they moved Lucroy up vs LHP, I could be okay with that, but he's been terrible in his career vs RHP, and he's been nothing special vs them so far this year (.704 OPS.... compared to a 1.210 OPS vs LHP)

 

BABIP shows if a guy has been lucky or not. Players of a certain skill set may carry a higher BABIP than most people (usually fast, ground ball hitting lefties), but for the most part, players keep a remarkably consistent BABIP over their career. .370 season long babips by slow right handed catchers just don't happen.

[jerichoholicninja]

When someone are saying that Lucroy "should not be moved up in the order because he's going to fall back to his .260 average of last year"....really? If his AVG does fall to .260, isn't that a lot better than the .164 average Weeks has, and the .192 average Morgan has right now?

 

For his average to fall to .260 he would have to hit very, very poorly. So yes, Weeks' or Morgan's poor averages would be better.

[RockCoCougars]

Rickie is 2nd in the league in walks.

 

I'm not going to open up the great 'Walk Debate' again, but with all due respect, he should be. The amount of plate appearances that he has coupled with his lack of aggressiveness at the plate should lend itself to a ton of walks. This has boosted his OBP to a level that is somewhat surprising (though still not good), considering how abysmal he has been with the bat.

[markedman5]

I'll take the under on Rickie's Zips projection.

 

zips is wrong just as often as its right.....guys have bad years and good years.

 

Until Weeks shows signs of breaking out of this funk (that goes all the way back to last year) I'd move him down and give him a few days off from time to time.

[monty57]

Until Weeks shows signs of breaking out of this funk (that goes all the way back to last year) I'd move him down and give him a few days off from time to time.

 

It's easy to say "I'd move him down," but less easy to find anyone on the Brewers who is hitting well enough to replace him. Lucroy/Kottaras and Braun are the only players in the Brewers' lineup who are hitting at the moment. Ramirez may be showing some life, but he's not moving to leadoff/#2, and Hart started out strong, but has really cooled off.

 

For his average to fall to .260 he would have to hit very, very poorly. So yes, Weeks' or Morgan's poor averages would be better.

 

To expand on that, not only would Lucroy have to hit far worse than .260 going forward to fall to .260 on the season, but Weeks and Morgan will have to hit well over .240-.250 to get to .240-.250 on the season. I don't have a crystal ball to predict what anyone will do, but it is probably likely that Weeks and Morgan will end the season over the Mendoza line, so they are going to have some stretches where they are going to hit everything, and it's also not likely that Lucroy will hit .370 for the season, so he's going to have stretches where he hits under .200.

 

Expecting Roenicke (or anyone) to predict when those hot and cold stretches will occur is like asking someone to go to Vegas and only pull the levers on the slot machines that are going to pay out - do you pull the lever on the one that's been paying out or on the one that hasn't paid out in a while?

[3and2Fastball]

Rickie Weeks has a history of being somewhat of a streaky hitter: in 2010 (probably his best full season) he had an on-base percentage of just .310 for the month of May and then had a June where he had a BA of .311 with a .417 OBP and followed that up with a July where he hit 9 HR's that month with a .392 OBP (and promptly went back to a .326 OBP in August)

 

Last season he started off real hot (.304/.379 with 6 HR's in the first month) and in July of last year he hit just .230/.330

 

In 2008 Weeks hit just .202 in April and .211 in May and in Sept of that season he hit .283 with a .944 OPS

 

Obviously the start to this season has been very very bad (historically bad for Weeks) but there is still reason to believe that he'll have a month or two coming up where he will flat out rake

[RockCoCougars]

I'm no MLB hitting coach, but once again I'll say that in my view Rickie needs to alter his approach. First of all, he has been far too passive up there... you don't break out of a slump by taking pitches. When is the last time he offered at the first pitch? Over his career (as is the case with probably every MLB hitter) his career average is way down when falling behind 0-1 (25 points). I think that he should take the hacker mindset for a while, what's the worse that can happen, striking out? He's already on a JoseKian pace in that aspect. Now, I'm not saying that he should try to jerk everything out of the park either. He should just concentrate on making contact. See the ball, hit the ball.... let those fast hands and resulting bat speed do the work. I'd actually have him swing straight down on the ball in an effort to take pitches the other way.

[3and2Fastball]

I completely disagree with the notion that Weeks should start hacking. One of the biggest assets of Weeks is his OBP. His career OBP of .352 is not going to be HOF worthy but that is very helpful to a team. This season in an epic slump he still has an OBP a full 138 points above his BA. There is value there

[TheCrew07]

Weeks has always been a patient hitter, but he hasn't been a selective hitter, and those are 2 entirely different concepts.

 

From my perspective Weeks has been prone to letting the best in pitch in an AB go bye with the bat on his shoulder, and to me it doesn't make sense to take pitches for the sake of taking pitches. I want selective hitters that will attack a pitch if it's in their zone, regardless of count. If you always let the pitcher pitch ahead in the count, you're always going to be behind the 8 ball. Like the other day with Ish in the 9th, all I heard all day long was people calling and email radio shows about him swinging at the first pitch. If he's looking for a pitch in a certain spot and gets it, he should absolutely swing at it, you don't let your pitch go bye because you're trying to walk in a run, that's bad hitting. He didn't execute at all so he didn't come through, but swinging at the pitch was sound if it was exactly what he was looking for. It looked to me like Kottaras got unintentional intentional walk, not that the pitcher couldn't throw strikes.

 

In that respect I would like Weeks to quit taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches. There are guys you know you can give a strike away tp and still get a good pitch to hit and there are pitchers you'd better jump on the opportunity when it presents itself. Rickie has the same approach either way, take a strike. I thought he was making improvements in that regard over the last 2 years, he wasn't letting that "get me over FB" go through any more, but this year it seems he's back to be overly patient in my opinion.

[RockCoCougars]

I want selective hitters that will attack a pitch if it's in their zone, regardless of count. If you always let the pitcher pitch ahead in the count, you're always going to be behind the 8 ball. Like the other day with Ish in the 9th, all I heard all day long was people calling and email radio shows about him swinging at the first pitch. If he's looking for a pitch in a certain spot and gets it, he should absolutely swing at it, you don't let your pitch go bye because you're trying to walk in a run, that's bad hitting.

 

Exactly. These aren't 9 hole Little Leaguers looking to draw a walk, these guys are major leaguers. I watched Paul Molitor make a career of murdering first pitch fastballs. I'd like to see a stat, but to me, it seems almost every Brewer hitter this season lets the first pitch sail by (more often than not a strike). If I'm an opposing catcher, I see that and call for a first pitch fastball right down the middle. I don't know if this is some philosophy by the new hitting coach or if these guys want to get more TV time, but it's irritating. Sometimes I question if the goal is to get a hit or if it's to draw a walk (yes OBP people, I know the goal is to get on base......).

 

BTW, I thought the criticism of Ishikawa was off base as well.... it wasn't Corey Hart grounding into a bases loaded DP in the playoffs or anything.

[3and2Fastball]

Ramirez, Gonzales and to a lesser degree Braun are all players who will rip at 1st pitch fastballs, so I don't think it is a team-wide thing. Lucroy, Weeks & Gamel are known as players who will work a count more.

[brettac1]

There are different ways to skin a cat. The approach Weeks has employed earned him a contract that averages over $10 million a year, made him an all-star, the second pick of the draft, and placed him among the top five offensive position players in the NL according to WAR in 2010. There is zero good reason that he should just scrap the way he hits naturally because of a rough patch to start the season.

[RockCoCougars]

There are different ways to skin a cat. The approach Weeks has employed earned him a contract that averages over $10 million a year, made him an all-star, the second pick of the draft, and placed him among the top five offensive position players in the NL according to WAR in 2010. There is zero good reason that he should just scrap the way he hits naturally because of a rough patch to start the season.

 

That's the issue. His approach has changed if you ask me. According to Fangraphs, his swing percentage is down about 15 percent from his career norms.