The Brewers are Leading the League in Runs Allowed...(and beginning to pull away)

[splitterpfj]

For those who think the Brewers' offense is mostly to blame for their choppy start to the season...this team is in the top half of the league in runs scored.

 

The issue, it seems, is the 119 runs allowed in 22 games.

 

It's THIS bad...notice something please about the teams the Brewers have played so far. The Cardinals and the Braves are currently tied for the league lead in runs scored. The third-place team is Colorado...the 4th is Houston...ALL teams who have played the Brewers in April.

 

I don't know if the Brewers have been unfortunate enough to face the best hitting teams in the league all at once, or if the Brewers have CREATED the best hitting teams in the league all at once. What I do know is, the current pitching numbers spell absolute disaster.

 

No one in the press box, or the loge level should be pointing fingers at the Brewer bats, if they continue to pitch the way they have, this show is already over.

[3and2Fastball]

It is a legitimate cause for concern. The Brewers really need Greinke & Gallardo to pitch like Aces, not 3.75-4.00 ERA 1.300+ WHIP guys (along with Marcum pitching very strong) in order to contend, and that isn't even addressing the bullpen issues outside of K-Rod & Axford

 

They will get better, I am sure of that: Wolf isn't an 7.17 ERA guy, Galardo isn't going to have his ERA over 6 etc etc

 

The question is: will they get better enough?

[Baldkin]

It is a legitimate cause for concern. The Brewers really need Greinke & Gallardo to pitch like Aces, not 3.75-4.00 ERA 1.300+ WHIP guys (along with Marcum pitching very strong) in order to contend, and that isn't even addressing the bullpen issues outside of K-Rod & Axford

 

They will get better, I am sure of that: Wolf isn't an 7.17 ERA guy, Galardo isn't going to have his ERA over 6 etc etc

 

The question is: will they get better enough?

 

Well, the Cards, Atlanta, and the Rockies will have three of the better hitting lineups in the NL this year for sure. What scares me, though, is that they gave up 18 runs in the 3 games to Houston.

 

Axford's ERA is nearly 5, K-Rod's is over 6. They are a part of the problem as well. The bullpen right now has allowed 46% of inherited runners to score. That is horrible. By far the worst in the league -- league average is 29%. This has both inflated bullpen ERA's as well as SP ERAs.

[3and2Fastball]

I haven't looked at any league wide averages, are runs up in general across MLB? Seems like there have been a lot of HR's in the early going

 

Yes Axford & K-Rod are part of the current problem, but I don't suspect they'll implode so I'm not as concerned about them as I am about the rest of the bullpen. Although maybe I should be concerned, closers tend to fall apart from year to year.

 

I've never really loved K-Rod just because it seems like he gets himself in jams too much, but his stats are very good career wise, maybe a WHIP that is a little too high, but a 167 career OPS+, 2.57 career ERA, 11.1 career K/9 are all pretty elite historically.... for whatever reason I always think of K-Rod as "the most likely player in MLB to have a steep decline"

[3and2Fastball]

More re: K-Rod and his 167 career ERA+. Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame and won a Cy Young and has a 136 career ERA+. Sutter had only 3 seasons where his ERA+ was over 167

[Funketown]

No, we should be pointing fingers at the offense. Without the threat of a Prince Fielder dugout whoopin' they just can't keep their focus. Perhaps they could acquire Russell Branyan to stand on the top step of the dugout and look tough.

 

Edit: FWIW, they're "leading" the league in BABIP at .343. Just for reference, the highest team BABIP over the course of a season from 2009-2011 was .311. No matter how bad this defense is (I for one don't think they'll be too bad), there's almost no way they post over a .320 over the entire season. As a Brewers fan I'm probably prone to feeling like every time an opponent hits a dribbler it finds a hole, so hopefully that's some of it too this early in the season.

 

But yeah, any way you slice it they've struggled, and it's reason to be concerned. I still think this starting staff is above average in the ML, but it's beginning to get very frustrating. Hopefully trips to places like San Diego and Pittsburgh help.

[logan82]

The Brewers have given up quite a few runs. You see all kinds of goofy stuff even a month into the season.

[Raw Biz]

More re: K-Rod and his 167 career ERA+. Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame and won a Cy Young and has a 136 career ERA+. Sutter had only 3 seasons where his ERA+ was over 167

 

I don't think any of that is really relevant with KRod now. Just because he did something in the past doesn't mean he will repeat it in the future. Is he a good relief pitcher? Yes. Is he the same KRod that he was 4-5 years ago? No. I'm pretty sure he's lost a few MPH in velocity. He's always given up a lot of baserunners but he was able to minimize the damage because he was able to strike guys out. During his lights out years, his K/9 was 12-13. Now he's around 9.5-10. His K/BB ratio has improved but he's also giving up more H/9, going from 5.5-7 to 7-9. All that being said, I still think he's a valuable pitcher. But looking at his career ERA+ or career WHIP or etc. really don't mean anything because of lot of those numbers are skewed from his elite seasons 5+ years ago and he's simply not the same pitcher he was.

[3and2Fastball]

More re: K-Rod and his 167 career ERA+. Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame and won a Cy Young and has a 136 career ERA+. Sutter had only 3 seasons where his ERA+ was over 167

 

I don't think any of that is really relevant with KRod now. Just because he did something in the past doesn't mean he will repeat it in the future. Is he a good relief pitcher? Yes. Is he the same KRod that he was 4-5 years ago? No. I'm pretty sure he's lost a few MPH in velocity. He's always given up a lot of baserunners but he was able to minimize the damage because he was able to strike guys out. During his lights out years, his K/9 was 12-13. Now he's around 9.5-10. His K/BB ratio has improved but he's also giving up more H/9, going from 5.5-7 to 7-9. All that being said, I still think he's a valuable pitcher. But looking at his career ERA+ or career WHIP or etc. really don't mean anything because of lot of those numbers are skewed from his elite seasons 5+ years ago and he's simply not the same pitcher he was.

 

Well, yeah, I do tend to like to look at things in a historical context. But still K-Rod's ERA+ was 143 in 2011 (still higher than Sutter's average) and 179 in 2010. Small sample but K-Rod's ERA+ with the Brewers last season was 212! And K-Rod's WHIP was only slightly higher last season from when he had 62 saves in a season.... the point being, he is still a great talent....

[Ennder]

These teams have been hot against everyone, Dodgers as well. It is probably some part bad pitching and some part running into hot teams.

[monty57]

Well, the Cards, Atlanta, and the Rockies will have three of the better hitting lineups in the NL this year for sure. What scares me, though, is that they gave up 18 runs in the 3 games to Houston.

 

The Astros have looked pretty good offensively this year. Martinez, Altuve and Schafer all look like pretty good young players. With Lee at clean-up and Lowrie now back from injury they could have a decent offense this year. Of course, they could fall off a cliff, but they have some talent and have been hitting well against pretty much everyone. They don't have the pitching to compete this season, but we may be glad in a couple of years that they're no longer in the NL Central.

 

As to the Brewers, barring injury I can't imagine that Gallardo or Greinke will pitch poorly all season. They're both young and good. Marcum just had a so-so start, hurting his numbers some, but he's been decent so far, and Wolf looked decent last night (albeit in San Diego which can make most pitchers look good). The Narveson injury certainly hurts, but at least we have some options to replace him this season. I don't like how bad our starting pitching has been, but I think it'll even out over the course of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Some of the pitching woes can be traced to a hangover effect from last season. That being said, many of these guys got substantial raises and they need them to pitch to their investment. Gallardo worked 21% more innings in 2011 than he had in any previous season. Marcum wore down with a month to go last year. Greinke hasn't pitched like a true ace (ie: Cy Young contender) since 09. Wolf turns 36 in August and it's a bit much to expect another sub 4 ERA season. The rotation and middle relief is where the concern should be. I had read that Melvin wanted another veteran arm to bolster starting depth but couldn't get one at his price. That may come back to haunt them.

 

K-Rod and Axford will be fine. K-Rod is a tightrope walker even when he's at the top of his game. He's gotten burned some early but he's throwing it fine. When Axford's really needed it, he's been bringing it and then some. I see both of those guys pacing themselves a bit early. Veras' performance is a concern 79 appearances last year might have taken a toll.