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2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]

pretendastronaut

By pretendastronaut,
in Archived Game Threads

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
The run expectancy table

Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010

BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS

___ 0.539 0.289 0.111

1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240

_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342

__3 1.444 0.984 0.373

12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464

1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512

_23 2.047 1.438 0.604

123 2.381 1.620 0.798

 

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.

 

Remember there are other considerations which this does not take into consideration such as the hitter's skill

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Oxy ACL Brewers

Oxy

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
The run expectancy table

Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010

BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS

___ 0.539 0.289 0.111

1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240

_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342

__3 1.444 0.984 0.373

12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464

1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512

_23 2.047 1.438 0.604

123 2.381 1.620 0.798

 

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.

 

What does this show? That you score .092 more runs with guys on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs rather than 1st and 3rd with 2 outs? And that is if the contact play NEVER works? If I would have actually checked this table first I'd be even more adamant in my support for the contact play. If it DOES work, now you've already scored one run and if you forced a play at the plate you've got guys on the corners with one out, so you'd score another 1.204 runs if every batter and pitcher are robots and the situation has no other variables.

 

This is practically a no-brainer.

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PrinceFielderx1 First Round Pick

PrinceFielderx1

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I'm willing to give Gomez more playing time now against RH and LH pitching. He's earned it and he seems different dating back to second half of last season.
Robin Yount - “But what I'd really like to tell you is I never dreamed of being in the Hall of Fame. Standing here with all these great players was beyond any of my dreams.”
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pebadger First Round Pick

pebadger

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When is the last time the Crew has been this far ahead? They had one good-sized win over AZ in the playoffs, but I honestly can't specifically remember watching the last Brewer game when they were up this much, given the pitching woes near the end of last season and in the playoffs. I guess the win over the Cards when Greinke pitched was the same margin, but this just seems like something of an anomaly.
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dlk9s Carolina Mudcats

dlk9s

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Glad to see the wave was started this inning!

 

When I was at the Braves home opener against the Brewers, the wave got going. After it died, a fan in the section to my left stood up in the front of the concourse tunnel (I was just to the right of the tunnel) tried to start it up again. I don't particularly mind the wave, but I found it hilarious that two senior women started yelling at him to sit down. He did.

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Glennron First Round Pick

Glennron

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Posted
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Wily Peralta is up, correct? Did RR mention in what sort of situation he might use Perlata? Like in a tie game in the 6th inning or maybe a 6 run game in the 8th inning?

 

Hopefully we'll see him in the ninth.

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