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2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]

pretendastronaut

By pretendastronaut,
in Archived Game Threads

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Oxy ACL Brewers

Oxy

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Contact play! With the infield in!

 

As well as with a guy on 2nd and one out. The contact play should always be on in that situation. What did they lose exactly? After the out at the plate, there were guys on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs. Had the runners held, there would be guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs. Not much difference. You make the defense make the play and the tag at the plate every single time there.

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hawing MVP

hawing

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On the positive side it's hard to complain about 5 innings of 9K and 1 run baseball from your long man on an emergency start.

Oh, yeah. Kudos to Marco. /hoping against hope that Manny doesn't reverse the good

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.
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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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Contact play! With the infield in!

 

As well as with a guy on 2nd and one out. The contact play should always be on in that situation. What did they lose exactly? After the out at the plate, there were guys on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs. Had the runners held, there would be guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs. Not much difference. You make the defense make the play and the tag at the plate every single time there.

 

They lost the ability to score 2 runs with a single. Its a losing play. Either a guy gets the ball and you're out at home or he doesn't and you can walk home anyway. There is no advantage to it.

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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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I'm ready for the Manny Parra experiment to end. He's had plenty of chances and hasn't shown a thing in any of them.

He has an FIP of 3.00 as a reliever. Hardly outstanding but to pretend that is not worth it as a #6 guy is wrong

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Oxy ACL Brewers

Oxy

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Contact play! With the infield in!

 

The contact play is pointless with the infield in, so dumb. If the fielder gets to it you are out, just wait and see if it gets through

 

Part of the contact play is getting a large lead and secondary lead at 3rd. There are plenty of times that the contact play will work even when the infield is in, and when there is a guy on 2nd there really isn't a good reason not to go for it.

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Contact play! With the infield in!

 

The contact play is pointless with the infield in, so dumb. If the fielder gets to it you are out, just wait and see if it gets through

 

Part of the contact play is getting a large lead and secondary lead at 3rd. There are plenty of times that the contact play will work even when the infield is in, and when there is a guy on 2nd there really isn't a good reason not to go for it.

 

There are not plenty of times when it will work with the infield unless Carlos Gomez is running

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Oxy ACL Brewers

Oxy

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Contact play! With the infield in!

 

As well as with a guy on 2nd and one out. The contact play should always be on in that situation. What did they lose exactly? After the out at the plate, there were guys on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs. Had the runners held, there would be guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs. Not much difference. You make the defense make the play and the tag at the plate every single time there.

 

They lost the ability to score 2 runs with a single. Its a losing play. Either a guy gets the ball and you're out at home or he doesn't and you can walk home anyway. There is no advantage to it.

 

There are lots of times the contact play will work even if the infield is in, more often than the single run you would lose if the next guy singles, and then the 3rd out is made the batter after that. If the next guy does anything else, there is no difference. if there is a walk and a single, no difference. If there are back to back singles, no difference. The only instance it would help to hold the runners is if there is a single, and then the third out is immediately made. That is a pretty specific pair of circumstances that need to happen in order to have a benefit of holding the runners.

 

Meanwhile, If you score the run on the contact play and they had to throw home, now you also saved an out, and still have 2 guys on base. There are more benefits to having the contact play on there than by holding the runners.

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Polish Falcons College Ball

Polish Falcons

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Even though they only gave up 2 runs that was such an ugly and stressful inning. High leverage situation and we are using these terrible relief pitchers. How about Peralta? Take a risk and stretch Estrada in for an extra inning? Break out of the routine and bring in Veras an inning early? This is brutal to watch.
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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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The run expectancy table

Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010

BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS

___ 0.539 0.289 0.111

1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240

_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342

__3 1.444 0.984 0.373

12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464

1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512

_23 2.047 1.438 0.604

123 2.381 1.620 0.798

 

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.

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