Narveson to DL- Latest: Officially Out for the Year (Reply 81)

[monty57]

I'd have to think service time has as much to do with this as anything. They probably brought Peralta up because they wanted to get his initial appearance out of the way, and hoped it would be in a non-stressful situation. Estrada is on the team to step in as an injury-replacement, and I'd guess that barring another injury, Peralta will go back to AAA when Loe's back to continue to get his reps as a starter for a couple of months in AAA so the Brewers can get another year's service out of him. In a couple months, we'll re-evaluate the situation, and if Estrada's been light's-out, then he could remain as the starter. If not, then we'll probably see Peralta replace him. As long as Peralta doesn't stay with the team as a middle reliever, I'm not upset about how they're handling this.

 

It is a bummer about Narveson. Hopefully, he can miss a few starts and come back strong in a couple of weeks. Maybe it's just my pessimistic side coming out, but I doubt that's the case. He'll probably need surgery, and my hope is that he'll be able to come back at 100% when he's healed. If he can't, then I share DHonks' concerns about the rotation going forward. In discussing future rotations, we've always been able to preface it with "We've got Yo & Narveson." I hope he's okay, but if Narveson isn't part of the equation to start next year in the rotation, I'm kind of worried.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ok, if that's the plan I guess I'm ok with it. Only because I'll trust the organization to know more than I do concerning whther or not Peralta is ready to join the rotation for the rest of the season.

 

I guess I saw this as an opportunity to get Peralta's rookie season out of the way, and give them a better idea on how he will fit in next year, and long term for that matter. Only one position in the rotation is "set" for next year, so it seemed to make sense to kick Peralta's tires this year.

[Invader3K]

Have there been any updates on Narveson? Last I heard, he was getting another opinion, but surgery wasn't set in stone yet.

[thebruce44]

Why would you bring Peralta up to piggy-back behind Estrada? Then you may as well bring up Rivas instead. Peralta is a starter, why would you bring him up and use him out of the pen? Plus, he is supposed to be a part of the future rotation. I'm glad Estrada struck gold in a few starts last year, I just don't believe he can do it again. Sure, Peralta may not do much better as a rookie, but that's the point. Let him get that rookie year out of the way now that the door is open.

 

 

Way behind on this thread and I agreed with you 100 pct at the time. But Estrada's just proving to be one of those rare commodities that's simply better as a starter than a reliever.

 

I think its more likely he has unsustainable numbers with BABIP and LOB% as a starter while having more normal numbers as a reliever. I don't expect him to keep this up, though I would love to be completely wrong.

[Madtown343]

He was throwing strikes though and that always helps. His third pitch will be key for him as teams start to see him more frequently.

 

That said 93 on the fastball was pretty impressive.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2012/04/24/narveson-to-have-season-ending-surgery/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Season-ending surgery is now confirmed for Narveson. Very unfortunate to see, but no unexpected. Hope he can recover well enough to get back to the pitcher he was. Not optimistic though.

[longball04]

I have had the surgery 3 times. Not good for Chris. Will be interesting to see if Estrada is given the shot all year, and if he begins to falter, who from AAA or AA they give a shot first. Assuming Wily if he uses his changeup, but could be very interesting. Sad day for Chris. I am sure he will work hard to come back strong next year.

[monty57]

There are several storylines out of this:

 

1) The obvious "human" story about Narveson, and for his sake I hope like heck he can work through this and return at 100%

 

2) The ramifications on this year's pitching staff. I expect Estrada to be given "first shot," and Peralta to return to AAA to retain service time from him. I hope the team allows Peralta to join the rotation at some point this year because of the next point.

 

3) The ramifications on future years' rotations. Narveson has been a good #5 starter, but if he can't come back at 100%, he may not be an MLB-caliber pitcher anymore. This isn't like someone who threw 95 coming back and throwing 91. Even though Narveson has never been a star, he has been a solid part of the rotation, and we are relying pretty heavily on him being part of our rotation in the future. If (big if) Narveson can't come back, then what do the Brewers do going forward? Getting Peralta some starts this season can help, but we will still have another big hole to fill, so again I hope Narveson will be okay.

 

4) This may be a little off-track, but this is another in a long line of examples of why players take long-term, team friendly deals when offered to them while they're in arbitration. Again, I hope Narveson comes back strong, but to this point, he has earned (pre-tax, pre-agent percentage), $416,000 in 2010, $441,000 in 2011 and is making $500,000 this season. He was a 2nd round pick in 2000, so he probably got $100k or so in signing bonus. He is probably not "set for life," and he's not promised anything next year. If the Narveson isn't fully healthy by next Spring Training, do the Brewers pay him $1MM or so, which is probably what arby would say he should get? I don't necessarily like using Narveson to make this case, as he could come back and have a long career, and to the best of my knowledge Narveson has never been offered an extension, but for those who don't understand why someone would "leave money on the table" by signing a team-friendly deal early, sustaining a major injury prior to becoming "set for life" is the reason why.

 

Bad news for Narveson and bad news for the Brewers. Hopefully we'll hear good news in 6-9 months.

[tstads20]

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2012/04/24/narveson-to-have-season-ending-surgery/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Season-ending surgery is now confirmed for Narveson. Very unfortunate to see, but no unexpected. Hope he can recover well enough to get back to the pitcher he was. Not optimistic though.

 

You're right to be skeptical. http://disciplesofuecker.com/brewers-lose-narveson-for-rest-of-season/4428

 

Not a good list of pitchers on there, only Pedro really made it back as a starter, and that's because a diminished Pedro was still a good one.

 

Good luck to Chris, won't be an easy road back.

[rluzinski]

Lance Lynn doesn't seem to be hindered too much by spending last year in the bullpen. Didn't seem to hurt CJ Wilson's career either.

 

Johan Santana pre-injury is probably the poster boy for this strategy. I want to say that he was in middle relief for at least a year and a half before dominating the AL. I think it is the best approach for most playoff caliber teams.quote]

 

If a team can afford to lose out on hundreds of pre arby innings, sure.

[FVBrewerFan]

There are several storylines out of this:

 

 

4) This may be a little off-track, but this is another in a long line of examples of why players take long-term, team friendly deals when offered to them while they're in arbitration. Again, I hope Narveson comes back strong, but to this point, he has earned (pre-tax, pre-agent percentage), $416,000 in 2010, $441,000 in 2011 and is making $500,000 this season. He was a 2nd round pick in 2000, so he probably got $100k or so in signing bonus. He is probably not "set for life," and he's not promised anything next year. If the Narveson isn't fully healthy by next Spring Training, do the Brewers pay him $1MM or so, which is probably what arby would say he should get? I don't necessarily like using Narveson to make this case, as he could come back and have a long career, and to the best of my knowledge Narveson has never been offered an extension, but for those who don't understand why someone would "leave money on the table" by signing a team-friendly deal early, sustaining a major injury prior to becoming "set for life" is the reason why.

 

 

 

I think this is a good context to make this point. This is especially true for pitchers, as this could happen to virtually any pitcher- and it's not like the odds are even incredibly low. As you said, I doubt the Brewers offered an extension to Narvy at all. But what about Greinke and Marcum? It is a gamble for them to go through the year without any arm issues.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just feel terrible for Narveson. Goes from being exposed to all of MLB on waivers by the Cardinals to earning a rotation spot with the Brewers, and being a big part of the historic season in 2011... and I'd have to guess that so far this season, he must've felt a certain degree of 'I've made it, and I'm here to say in the bigs'. And then this. Just shows you how careers in MLB (esp. pitchers') can change in the blink of an eye. Best of luck getting back, Chris -- you have every Brewers fan in your corner.

[thebruce44]

Lance Lynn doesn't seem to be hindered too much by spending last year in the bullpen. Didn't seem to hurt CJ Wilson's career either.

 

Johan Santana pre-injury is probably the poster boy for this strategy. I want to say that he was in middle relief for at least a year and a half before dominating the AL. I think it is the best approach for most playoff caliber teams.quote]

 

If a team can afford to lose out on hundreds of pre arby innings, sure.

 

Didn't the Twins do the same thing with Liriano? You wouldn't want him as the poster boy too.

[DHonks]

Also, don't forget the roughly 45% in taxes he paid those years. Those nice earnings aren't nearly as they seem. I hope he can come back. It helps that he's lefty.

[Invader3K]

Also, don't forget the roughly 45% in taxes he paid those years. Those nice earnings aren't nearly as they seem. I hope he can come back. It helps that he's lefty.

 

People forget that. After agent cut and taxes, those salaries aren't as high as they would seem.

[GormanHarvey]

Rotator cuff AND labrum damage...

 

http://m.jsonline.com/more/sports/blogs/brewers/149673755.htm

[PrinceEatMeat]

There's no way he'll be ready for next season now that there's labrum damage also. I doubt he'll throw much, if at all, before February. He'll probably end up recovering in the minors for a good part of next season. If it stayed at a 6-9 month recovery there was probably hope of him being ready. Now I think that's gone. Either way, it's tough to come back from this injury at all. At least at a similar level. With Narveson being a 5 starter to begin with, I don't see making it back into the rotation. Very sad that this happened to him. I hope he can come back and at least be a reliever or something like Parra.

[Madtown343]

Thing is I dont think he has any value as a reliever. He does not have parra's stuff and has struggled out of the pen. I am starting to think he may be done which is is a shame and really makes signing Grienke even more vital to 2013.

[monty57]

There's no way he'll be ready for next season now that there's labrum damage also. I doubt he'll throw much, if at all, before February. He'll probably end up recovering in the minors for a good part of next season.

 

...and if that's true, there's no chance the Brewers would offer him arby, so unless they cut him and sign him back as a free agent, his days as a Brewer could be over. That makes next year's rotation Gallardo, ?, ?, ?, ? to go along with a lot of our payroll budget already tied up in some big, guaranteed contracts for the next few seasons, and not a lot of pre-arby players on the roster.

[TheCrew07]

I'm curious about the 9 months recovery window... does that mean he'll be fully recovered in 9 months (which seems absurd) or that he'll be able to start throwing off of a mound within 9 months? After the Brewers sat on Green's wrist and Periard's shoulder an entire off season hoping rest would do the trick I have no confidence at all in any rehab schedule that comes out of the organization. I was extremely skeptical about Manzanillo's rehab without surgery given the severity of the accident and he was supposedly going to be just fine to start the season as well. He only lasted through a total of 3 uninspiring appearances before being shutdown and there's been no word since.

 

As a pitching nerd, shoulder injuries scare the heck out of me, there's no TJ surgery for the shoulder that boasts a relatively high recovery rate. It's an extremely complicated joint and ligament system, I'm hoping for the best but 9 months seems awfully aggressive. At this point the Brewers should make plans to move on without him and if Narvy makes it back then they will have some additional depth. There's no guarantee he'll be the pitcher he was before the injury and obviously the fact this is his second shoulder surgery raises the odds against him significantly.

[TooLiveBrew]

That makes next year's rotation Gallardo, ?, ?, ?, ?

I think Estrada is all but a lock for one of those spots next season, & I think we're looking at Yo, Peralta, Estrada, Wolf, ? for 2013 at this point. My guess is that Melvin will trade for a(nother) veteran SP this coming offseason, unless a FA can be found at a bargain cost.

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Capuano situation is any indication, I would expect the Brewers to non-tender Narveson, and bring him back for a nominal major league contract as technically a FA. The Brewers tend to show a lot of loyalty to guys that have been productive and are good citizens and he certainly falls into that category. Then they'll evaluate where he's at from there.

 

He's not a hard thrower per se, but his fastball is decent enough to set up his out pitches and get on hitters if they are looking for something off speed. He could make it all the way back.

 

As for next season, there is one lock and that's Gallardo. Estrada's status will depend on how he does the rest of the year. I have a sneaking suspicion one guy not often mentioned who will be prominently in the mix is Fiers. Then they'll either re-sign one of their guys or sign another FA and one spot will go to any of several guys, Peralta, Thornburg, Bradley, Jungmann or some other young guy.

 

One thing we do know, it will look a lot different and that's not necessarily bad.

[monty57]

That makes next year's rotation Gallardo, ?, ?, ?, ?

I think Estrada is all but a lock for one of those spots next season, & I think we're looking at Yo, Peralta, Estrada, Wolf, ? for 2013 at this point. My guess is that Melvin will trade for a(nother) veteran SP this coming offseason, unless a FA can be found at a bargain cost.

 

I know there are a lot of options for each of those question marks, but we don't know for sure who will be in the rotation beyond Yo, so I hesitate to guess what will happen. We could go a lot of different directions, and much will depend on whether we're going to continue to push all-in to give us the absolute best chance to make the playoffs in that given year, and how our prospects look this year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

At this point, it's probably almost a foregone conclusion that Wolf's option will be exercised and Greinke will be gone. I think Marcum will likely be back though, and if not some other free agent will likely be brought in. Otherwise Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Peralta, Estrada isn't bad. Or maybe Fiers or Thornburg instead of Estrada.

[Roderick]

Big bump.

 

I bumped because I heard Brian Anderson on TV last night mention Narveson when they were talking about pitchers for next year. I saw Rosiak (JS) mention Narveson in a chat a week ago or so also (pending health).

 

I was wondering if something came out that I missed about his progress/prognosis or if they were just thinking that its an injury and everyone comes back in a year nowadays.