Baseball History: Top 20 Pitchers of All-Time and does Halladay have a chance to make that list?

[3and2Fastball]

I'm wondering who you would consider to be the greatest starting pitchers in Baseball history, and also interested in your thoughts as to just how good Roy Halladay is and whether he will ever be considered a Top 20 pitcher. I think he is, here are my Top 20 (which I must admit my opinion on this stuff changes weekly)...interested in yours ... I didn't include Roger Clemons because of his steroid allegations but feel free to include him

 

1) Satchell Paige

2) Pedro Martinez

3) Walter Johnson

4) Christy Matthewson

5) Tom Seaver

6) Bob Gibson

7) Mordechi Brown

8) Greg Maddux

9) Bob Feller

10) Randy Johnson

11) Sandy Koufax

12) Lefty Grove

13) Cy Young

14) Jim Palmer

15) Warren Spahn

16) Steve Carlton

17) Grover Alexander

18) Roy Halladay

19) ?

20) ?

 

edited : I accidentally included Mariano Rivera....this is supposed to be about starting pitchers

[RockCoCougars]

I'd go as follows for the Top 5:

 

Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Warren Spahn, Mathewson/Gibson/Feller/Carlton if you ask me. To me, Halladay has a ways to go (5 more decent years) before he hits the Top 20. He's closer to Mike Mussina than All Time Great at this point, if you ask me.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd go as follows for the Top 5:

 

Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Warren Spahn, Mathewson/Gibson/Feller/Carlton if you ask me. To me, Halladay has a ways to go (5 more decent years) before he hits the Top 20. He's closer to Mike Mussina than All Time Great at this point, if you ask me.

 

Thank you very much for your reply. Mike Mussina had a 3.68 career ERA and a 123 career OPS+ with 0 Cy Youngs

 

Halladay has a career 3.21 ERA and a 139 career ERA+ right now (of course we don't know how a possible decline at the end of his career might effect his numbers) and 2 Cy Youngs.

 

Halladay's career 139 ERA+ ranks him #16 All-Time at the present moment

 

I like your Top 5, Feller is a fascinating one for me to consider because he was arguably the greatest RHP ever before his injury and missed time due to the war. I think you could arguably rank Feller in the top 3 or arguably put him somewhere around 15-20

[Funketown]

If he puts up three or more elite seasons I see no reason why Halladay shouldn't at least be in the discussion as a Top 20 pitcher.

 

This thread got me browsing the records page on baseball-reference, and I found this gem of a season from Old Ross Radbourn:

678.2 IP, 59-12, 1.38 ERA (207 ERA+), 19.8 bWAR

 

Gotta love 1880's baseball!

[TURBO]

Nolan Ryan?

[3and2Fastball]

I was doing some more research of LHP's today and I changed my rankings around:

 

1) Satchell Paige

2) Pedro Martinez

3) Walter Johnson

4) Christy Matthewson

5) Tom Seaver

6) Bob Gibson

7) Mordechi Brown

8) Greg Maddux

9) Bob Feller

10) Lefty Grove

11) Warren Spahn

12) Randy Johnson

13) Cy Young

14) Jim Palmer

15) Sandy Koufax

16) Steve Carlton

17) Grover Alexander

18) Roy Halladay

19) ?

20) ?

 

Koufax' home/away splits were pretty dramatic

[HiAndTight]

It's just impossible for me to throw Paige into the equation. Same with all the negro league players.

 

And I think Halladay, in the steroid era, what he's accomplished, and then pitching in a sandbox like Philly, his Perfect game, playoff no-hitter....I think he's clearly a top 20 all time starting pitcher.

 

I also think Clemens is. It's a shame that all time greats like Bonds and Clemens ruined the end of their career by cheating as they were both on all time great trajectories.

[rwa12]

The argument against Clemens is that we don't know when the Roids started. He looked about done when he left Boston the first time, and had a monster resurgence. Too many unknowns.

[3and2Fastball]

It's just impossible for me to throw Paige into the equation. Same with all the negro league players.

 

I can understand that. The reason I rank Paige so high is that he had a 3.29 ERA and 125 ERA+ in over 700 innings in MLB even though he was a rookie at age 41! The rest is mostly just anecdotal evidence, I recognize that.

[JimH5]

For me, there's enough anecdotal evidence on Paige's career to say he belongs in the top 20 of all time.

 

What's unknown to me is whether Martin Dihigo, Smokey Joe Williams or Hilton Smith might not also be in the discussion.

 

As for Halladay, it's way too soon for me to even consider if he's good enough to make it. He's 224th in career innings. If he goes another 700, he'll reach the top 100, and then I'd say let's take a look.

 

B-R's list of top 10 similarity scores for Halladay doesn't have a single guy who is a top 20 career pitcher, so he's going to have to have a lot of good baseball in him to reach the list.

[dlk9s]

As for Halladay, it's way too soon for me to even consider if he's good enough to make it. He's 224th in career innings. If he goes another 700, he'll reach the top 100, and then I'd say let's take a look.

 

He has more innings than Koufax.

[topper09er]

Remember WAR is a counting stat, the older guys threw many more innings and were able to accumulate more WAR.

 

Here are the leaders in WAR/1000 batters faced, min 54.5 WAR (Sandy Koufax)

 

6.66 Pedro Martinez

6.34 Roger Clemens

5.92 Roy Halladay

5.91 Lefty Grove

5.74 Sandy Koufax

5.46 Walter Johnson

5.44 Tom Seaver

5.38 Randy Johnson

5.33 Bob Gibson

5.25 Bret Saberhagen

5.25 Curt Schilling

5.13 Mike Mussina

5.02 Pete Alexander

4.97 Cy Young

4.80 Ed Walsh

4.79 Kevin Brown

4.74 Greg Maddux

4.72 Christy Mathewson

4.72 David Cone

4.66 Don Drysdale

4.56 Dazzy Vance

4.52 Mordecai Brown

4.50 Juan Marichal

4.48 John Smoltz

4.45 Rick Reuschel

4.45 Hal Newhouser

4.42 Fergie Jenkins

4.40 Bert Blyleven

4.39 Gaylord Perry

4.35 Carl Hubbell

4.33 Warren Spahn

4.29 Eddie Plank

4.27 Phil Niekro

4.24 Whitey Ford

4.22 Robin Roberts

4.18 Luis Tiant

4.09 Larry Jackson

4.08 Bob Feller

4.03 Chuck Finley

3.94 Jim Palmer

3.89 Steve Carlton

3.85 Jim Bunning

3.76 Nolan Ryan

3.68 Jerry Koosman

3.60 Tom Glavine

3.52 Vic Willis

3.30 Ted Lyons

3.27 Don Sutton

3.23 Red Faber

3.12 Frank Tanana

3.00 Tommy John

 

WAR isn't the only thing to consider,

I would list my top 5 as

 

Pedro Martinez

Walter Johnson

Lefty Grove

Bob Gibson

Roger Clemens

[RockCoCougars]

Thanks for that list. That said, I have to take it with a grain of salt because they have Bret Saberhagen so high. Maybe in odd numbered years he was an all time great. I think that throwing more innings to accumulate stats is part of the deal. The amount of innings that these guys were able to log is amazing. They took the ball every third or fourth day and completely took the bullpen out of the equation. For almost all the modern guys, they had closers to come finish things out when they tired. You have to consider that some of the old timers were pitching with sore/tired arms in the late innings of games, which may have hurt their stats.

 

I would like to put Pedro higher on my list due to his dominance in 'Roid-Ball', but to me, he didn't get it done long enough. I'd put him more in a class with Sandy Koufax than Walter Johnson.

[Baldkin]

I don't like putting Pedro up there. He never had a downside to his career.

He threw 300 innings after his age 33 season, while Maddux (for example) threw 1900!

 

I don't like rewarding a guy's greatness because he couldn't stay healthy to play longer.

[topper09er]

Here are the WAR/1000 batters only in pitchers' first 12 seasons, an attempt to include their primes. This is not a perfect measure obviously and it hurts guys like Halladay (this includes none of his Phily years) and Randy Johnson (only includes one of his AZ years)

 

7.784 Pedro Martinez

6.482 Roger Clemens

6.450 Tom Seaver

6.190 Walter Johnson

5.950 Johan Santana

5.949 Lefty Grove

5.883 Bob Gibson

5.878 Greg Maddux

5.739 Sandy Koufax

5.621 Roy Halladay

5.554 Pete Alexander

5.512 Mike Mussina

5.414 Bret Saberhagen

5.411 Cy Young

5.398 David Cone

5.348 Christy Mathewson

5.304 Kevin Appier

5.234 Randy Johnson

5.210 Roy Oswalt

5.109 Bert Blyleven

5.093 Juan Marichal

5.079 Dazzy Vance

5.063 Fergie Jenkins

5.036 Warren Spahn

5.026 Bob Feller

5.006 Kid Nichols

4.983 CC Sabathia

4.973 Carl Hubbell

4.879 Ed Walsh

4.855 Gaylord Perry

4.851 Tim Hudson

4.829 Rick Reuschel

4.767 Phil Niekro

4.712 Dave Stieb

4.710 Robin Roberts

4.695 Hal Newhouser

4.660 Don Drysdale

4.660 Mordecai Brown

4.568 Dwight Gooden

4.566 Luis Tiant

4.517 Mark Buehrle

4.445 Jim Bunning

4.429 Billy Pierce

4.400 Stan Coveleski

4.371 Rube Waddell

4.333 Jim Palmer

4.309 Eddie Plank

4.234 Steve Carlton

4.214 Urban Shocker

4.180 Whitey Ford

4.111 Mark Langston

4.098 Larry Jackson

4.018 Steve Rogers

3.816 Frank Viola

3.800 Joe McGinnity

3.737 Vic Willis

3.674 Clark Griffith

3.586 Don Sutton

[splitterpfj]

Compiling a definitive list on a subject like this is impossible, but that's what makes it fun.

 

Some guys weren't allowed into MLB, others had military service, others retired early, etc, so I know I can't ever really compare guys the way it should be done. With the information we have, here's my shot at it...

 

1. Walter Johnson

2. Cy Young

3. Christy Mathewson

4. Roger Clemens

5. Pete Alexander

6. Warren Spahn

7. Greg Maddux

8. Randy Johnson

9. Lefty Grove

10.Steve Carlton

11.Tom Seaver

12.Nolan Ryan

13.Pedro Martinez

14.Bob Feller

15.Sandy Koufax

16.Carl Hubbell

17.Jim Palmer

18.Gaylord Perry

19.Robin Roberts

20.Juan Marichal

[3and2Fastball]

I very much appreciate all of your responses. This is a fun topic (to me at least) to try to sort through.

 

I remember reading an interesting article about Walter Johnson, in which 2 baseball historians were debating just how great he was. (I wish I could find it online so I could link to it)

 

Essentially one writer was saying that Walter Johnson was the "Babe Ruth of pitching" statistically greater than any other pitcher ever. The other writer was saying that Johnson basically just had one incredible pitch, a 95-100 MPH fastball in an era when the next fastest pitcher was probably throwing 85 MPH (of course there were no radar guns back then so those are estimates) and that there weren't hitters back then who could deal with that fastball.

 

The 2nd writer was saying that if you put Walter Johnson in today's game, that hitters like Braun and Pujols and Fielder etc would rake on a 100 MPH fastball if they knew it was coming and a starting pitcher with just one or 2 pitches in the modern era wouldn't suffice as an "all-time great" certainly not the greatest of all-time.

 

Another thing he pointed out was that after Walter Johnson's injury he wasn't as effective, that he wasn't able to adapt his game to a more finesse game the way that a Greg Maddux was able to in the last 7 years of his career or so

 

Anyways, I thought it was interesting... Johnson's stats from 1920-1927 were not as mind-blowingly great and dominating as they were previous to his injury.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnswa01.shtml

 

Johnson's career ERA+ of 147 puts him behind Pedro Martinez and Lefty Grove

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml

[RightFieldCoder]

The 2nd writer was saying that if you put Walter Johnson in today's game, that hitters like Braun and Pujols and Fielder etc would rake on a 100 MPH fastball if they knew it was coming and a starting pitcher with just one or 2 pitches in the modern era wouldn't suffice as an "all-time great" certainly not the greatest of all-time.

Using the same logic, because Ruth, Speaker, and DiMaggio, etc would not be able to hit modern pitchers like Halladay and Verlander they are not "all-time greats". You have to judge players by their contemporaries.

[3and2Fastball]

The 2nd writer was saying that if you put Walter Johnson in today's game, that hitters like Braun and Pujols and Fielder etc would rake on a 100 MPH fastball if they knew it was coming and a starting pitcher with just one or 2 pitches in the modern era wouldn't suffice as an "all-time great" certainly not the greatest of all-time.

Using the same logic, because Ruth, Speaker, and DiMaggio, etc would not be able to hit modern pitchers like Halladay and Verlander they are not "all-time greats". You have to judge players by their contemporaries.

 

No quite following you there. Ruth, Speaker, Cobb, etc all faced many pitchers with fastball/curve/changeup combinations. Walter Johnson just wasn't really one of them

[3and2Fastball]

Having said that, I do very much wonder how Babe Ruth or Ted Williams would have looked at the plate vs someone like Randy Johnson. A 6-11 pitcher with a 99 MPH fastball and knee-buckling curve didn't exist in their day.

 

Of course we can also wonder how Albert Pujols would do with 15 hour train rides, no batting gloves and 5 minutes of batting practice (if that) before a game