Roster construction problems with this team

[fondybrewfan]

Gallardo is the only legitimate SP we have drafted since Ben Sheets. Pretty sad. And before Sheets it was ?

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers just haven't developed many pitchers period. Who is the last full time closer that they have drafted? Doug Henry (or maybe Doug Jones if you want to get technical). The bottom line is if you take away Sheets and Gallardo, this organization's record on developing pitching has been pretty abysmal for the last 20 years. Regarding the bullpen, they have been very fortuitous in picking up scrap heap guys from other teams. None of these guys have had any long term success with the team, but most have been lights out for a short time.

[TooLiveBrew]

We got Axford 3 years after he was drafted, hard to say we developed him. That is like saying the Rangers developed Nelson Cruz. Ok to rephrase it how can a team be so bad at drafting and then developing RP arms, it is something most teams do on a consistent basis yet we have somehow completely failed at it. I'm not just talking elite guys either, we just have been terrible at it all around.

No, it's nothing like Cruz at all.

 

Axford was released by the Yankees in 2007, & the Brewers signed him in 2008. He'd had TJ surgery in college, and his lack of velocity (& success) was basically why he got released; his velocity was in the low 90s at that point iirc. Lee Tunnel helped Axford refine his mechanics & turned him into the flamethrower he is now. The only thing the Brewers did with Axford was develop him.

 

 

EDIT: Here's an excerpt from a story SI did on Axford in '11:

 

Recalls Axford: "The first thing [Tunnell] said to me was, 'We want to work on something. Do you know who Roy Halladay is?' I'm like, 'Uh, yeah.' He had worked with Halladay [in the Arizona Fall League], and he says to me, 'I want you to throw like him right now. Try to think about how he throws and emulate his mechanics.' So I did a little bit of a turn -- my back was always very straight up and down, so I just kind of had a little bit more of a knee turn, and my back immediately went down and my arm slot lowered. Obviously, I didn't look anything like Roy Halladay, but in my mind I guess I kind of did. I kept on throwing and I threw a couple two seamers that actually moved, which had never happened before.

 

"I used to throw 89 and as high as 92, 93 on my fastball. But my next outting, which was the next day, I don't think I had a fastball that was lower than 93 or 94, and I was topping out at 96. The way the coaches put it was this: I needed to stay more athletic. I was just too mechanical, too up and down, focusing too much on trying to throw strikes. I needed to stay more athletic out there and throwing strikes. And everything kind of changed after that."

[Ennder]

Ok well pretend I said drafted and developed them, trying to argue semantics of things like this just derails the discussion completely and it really isn't important at all.

 

A lot of teams have struggled to develop SP so while it stinks that we haven't had much success it is at least a little normal. I can't think of another team that has failed as miserably as we have wtih RP though.

[monty57]

I think lot of RPs teams have developed started out as SP. When they fell down the SP depth chart and it became obvious they weren't going to make the MLB team as a starter, they moved to the bullpen. So while I agree with Ennder's point, I think our former scouts/drafters did a horrific all-around job of evaluating pitching talent. Jack Z's willingness in Seattle to move young pitchers for young hitters, combined with his inability to find pitching for the Brewers makes me wonder how much value he places on pitching vs hitting.

 

That said, it will be very nice when some of our pitchers start to make it out of the minors and onto the MLB squad. Rivas will hopefully soon be a good example of a bullpen arm we drafted and projected as a starter who ends up being a valuable part of our bullpen for a number of years. There will be more in the future, as guys like Thornberg, Jungman and Bradley elevate through the ranks and older or less talented guys realize their path to the majors is in the 'pen.

[TheCrew07]

We got Axford 3 years after he was drafted, hard to say we developed him. That is like saying the Rangers developed Nelson Cruz. Ok to rephrase it how can a team be so bad at drafting and then developing RP arms, it is something most teams do on a consistent basis yet we have somehow completely failed at it. I'm not just talking elite guys either, we just have been terrible at it all around.

 

Well Axford was a 91-92 MPH at max pitcher before Lee Tunnell tweaked his mechanics and he added 5 MPH basically overnight, that effect cannot be overstated. He flew through the system after his delivery change as his command and velocity were greatly improved.

 

I think the answer to your question lies in who the relievers in the Brewers' system have been and how the Brewers chose to develop those players. If you don't have hardly anyone of MLB quality starting in your minor league system, then chances are you aren't going to develop many quality relief prospects in addition to the problem you'll have developing starters. In general the best relievers are going to be failed starting pitchers who could flourish when they only had to face a line-up one time pitching with greater velocity (more max effort).

 

We had guys like Pena and Sarfate that had big arms but never any control moving from starting to relief role, McClendon's who also made that transition but who have averagish stuff to start with. Braddock was doing fine until he lost his velocity and then spiraled out of control. Tim Dillard threw a ton harder as an overhand pitcher, he actually threw a complete game on something like 85 pitches once in the minors, he was a ground ball machine, I still struggle with the junk-baller side arm concept for him and that transition. I think Amuary Rivas could be a decent reliever or maybe I'm more just being hopeful. I have no idea how to peg Mark Rogers who's BB rate is atrocious or a Cody Scarpetta who sits around a 4.7.

 

I do think many of that middle tier of our starting pitching prospects will ultimately make fine relievers if necessary. Player's like Merklinger, Heckathorn, Fiers, and so on.

 

Of the players developed as relievers Santo Manzanillo looked to have found something before his car accident. Rob Wooten never had a great fastball and got injured but is back and pitching well in AA, Omar Aguillar completely dominated BC but couldn't do anything at Huntsville, probably because he never figured out how to throw enough strikes. Dan Meadows is as steady as it gets and will get a MLB opportunity at some point. I just find it hard to get excited about relief prospects in the minors because so few actually turn out. I'm not opposed to drafting college closers to see if they can be fast tracked to the MLB bullpen but so far that theory hasn't borne any fruit for the Brewers, though we have some guys pretty close.

 

I'd rather any legitimate MLB caliber pitching prospect (starting or relieving) start until AA, just so they get the innings necessary to refine their stuff, most of our youngsters who relieve in the minors don't get much if any bullpen work done on the side. Putting those pitchers into the rotation allows them to work on specific concepts outside of actual competition. If a player proves he can't handle the workload then you're forced to move him to the pen but in general I'm not sure how pitchers get better (refining delivery, command, movement, etc) throwing less innings with less practice time.

[Funketown]

Mike Adams probably also merits a mention, although he wasn't very successful when in Milwaukee. He put up a 1.42 ERA from 2009-2011 in 177 innings. Funny how he always seems to go under the radar.

 

Joe Thatcher also had a couple of very good LOOGY years out in San Diego.

 

I'm not sure if there are any more guys that they developed and shipped off only to find success with their new organizations, but Adams certainly fits into the category of elite relief pitchers. Just for reference, when you consider all relievers with over 100 innings pitched from 2009-2011, Adams' ERA is best (1.42 vs. Rivera's 1.82), his FIP (2.24) is second to Sergio Romo.

 

Are there any more of these guys? They obviously haven't done a great job of developing relievers, but there are at least a couple guys who were developed in Milwaukee who would become elite pitchers (counting Axford).

 

Edit: Of course, it's worth mentioning that Adams spent a lot of time in different organizations before finding his success. I'm not sure if he was completely re-tooled like Axford.

[3and2Fastball]

I really think a lot of the Brewers' troubles in developing starting pitching has just been bad luck with injuries. Mike Jones had great stuff, (a 2.40 ERA at age 20 in AA ball). Mark Rogers is another one.

[FVBrewerFan]

I really think a lot of the Brewers' troubles in developing starting pitching has just been bad luck with injuries. Mike Jones had great stuff, (a 2.40 ERA at age 20 in AA ball). Mark Rogers is another one.

 

That's a long list. And I believe that has (or at least had) something to do with development over the years. Injuries happen, but when they SEEM to happen more often on average to one organization, I have to ask myself if they are haven't been developing pitchers properly.

[3and2Fastball]

That's a long list. And I believe that has (or at least had) something to do with development over the years. Injuries happen, but when they SEEM to happen more often on average to one organization, I have to ask myself if they are haven't been developing pitchers properly.

 

It might be more of an organizational philosophy of going with high risk/high reward high school pitchers in the past (Jones, Rogers, Jeffress), pitchers that had a few known mechanical flaws that could (and did) lead to injury but also had amazing stuff. More that they rolled the dice on risky phenoms as opposed to some sort of flaw in the Brewers development system

 

They seem to have switched gears recently going with mostly college pitchers.

 

Ben Sheets should be added to the short list along with Gallardo of home grown pitchers who were a success

[JohnBriggs12]

I really think a lot of the Brewers' troubles in developing starting pitching has just been bad luck with injuries. Mike Jones had great stuff, (a 2.40 ERA at age 20 in AA ball). Mark Rogers is another one.

 

That's a long list. And I believe that has (or at least had) something to do with development over the years. Injuries happen, but when they SEEM to happen more often on average to one organization, I have to ask myself if they are haven't been developing pitchers properly.

 

Agreed. There's been a development issue. Sure you can point to injuries, but guys like Jones, Rogers, etc, were all first rounders. Where's the 8th rounder that was developed? Or the 15th rounder?

[adambr2]

This is not to say the season is over, it's not.

 

But here's what scares me the most. If things aren't looking up by June, it's probably just not going to be a successful season. At that point, the thing I will probably be most excited about is our young arms in the minors. However, Doug and Mark have an extremely aggressive philosophy where they're going to go for it in just about any possible scenario and sell in just about no scenario, so the idea of them gutting the farm completely to go trade for a rented ace in July when we're 5 games under .500 and really in no position to buy, isn't that farfetched.

 

Sounds insane, but it's the exact same thing we tried to do in 2009, and would have done if Halladay didn't void the deal to come here.

 

I can't say enough about what Mark A's done for the organization, and it's commendable that he's always willing to do whatever it takes to be a winner, but using the farm almost primarily now to buy major league pieces isn't a sustainable philosophy. You can keep trying it, and you might give yourself a chance a few years like we did in '08 and '11, but eventually we're going to be left with a nightmare scenario of a high payroll of very overpaid aging veterans with absolutely no viable future replacements at any position of any high upside, and that's the point where we won't have any choice left but to rebuild.

[MVP2110]

Honestly I don't have any major issues with the way Melvin and Co. went after it this winter. Imagine our lineup right now if our plan had been to play Green and Gamel at 3rd. We would be in serious danger. I believe we can atleast still compete

[monty57]

Imagine our lineup right now if our plan had been to play Green and Gamel at 3rd. We would be in serious danger.

 

We are in "serious danger" now. If we had went with Green at 3B and Gamel at 1B, we would have had additional funds to pay for better backup options and bullpen arms, so the loss of Gonzalez wouldn't hurt so much, and we may have a few more wins. Plus, we might have money to pick up a 1B like Derrick Lee if necessary. It's also quite possible that Green would've outplayed Ramirez to this point in the season, both offensively and defensively, and not having Ramirez's contract on the books may have allowed us to have already signed Greinke.

 

Of course, Melvin/Roenicke were never going to go with two "rookies" in Gamel & Green in this "all in" season, so if we hadn't picked up Ramirez, we would've signed someone like Carlos Pena. There are too many variables to know where we'd be if we hadn't signed Ramirez, so we may be in better or worse shape this year without the signing. I will say that we'd be better in a couple of years if Ramirez weren't on the roster making $16MM. If the signing doesn't help us win this year and hurts us in the next couple of years, then it will have been a really bad signing.

[MVP2110]

Frankly though this is an all in season, we are most likely losing greinke and marcum and krod and maybe wolf after the year. we werent going to win the next 2 years most likely anyways so why not go for it this season with someone you know will produce

[monty57]

Frankly though this is an all in season, we are most likely losing greinke and marcum and krod and maybe wolf after the year. we werent going to win the next 2 years most likely anyways so why not go for it this season with someone you know will produce

 

Yeah, Melvin designed this team to be contenders through 2012 and then fall off a cliff. I believe that was right when his contract was going to be over and he was going to retire, but then he "got the itch" and accepted an extension so he's going to be the one to figure out the mess.

 

Since he traded away much of the future for two pitchers who would both leave in the same year, and designed some contracts to get pretty expensive in pretty soon, he had a decision to make prior to this season. Not surprisingly, he decided to go all in rather than trading away guys with one year left for prospects. "Going for it" was probably the correct path to take, but I honestly can't remember when he last traded a "proven player" for a prospect. Now we're in the position we're in, which is why I think we should hold tight for a month or so, don't do anything rash, and see where we sit in late June/early July. If we're not near the top of the division, I would suggest selling, as we could get a pretty good return for guys like Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and Hart. That could ease the drop-off from this season to next, but we have to "know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em." The way this season's started, it's looking like it could be time to "fold 'em" in July, and I hope Melvin and Attanasio have the wherewithal to sell if that's the correct path.

[MVP2110]

Yea i would agree with that. If we fall off i have no issue with trading off pieces but I wouldn't quite yet.

[adambr2]

I think this season so far is a pretty good example that it's not as much about how big your payroll is at it is about how good your investments are.

 

This team has 25% of it's payroll tied up in a struggling setup man, a soft-tossing starter that is pitching like a bad #5, and an aging 3rd baseman. A combination of a bad farm system and a habit of trading away what's left in the farm in an effort to try to plug up the remaining holes has forced the team to overuse free agency to patch up the team, and it's just not a sustainable strategy.

[TooLiveBrew]

This team is bordering on unwatchable at this point, and for me it's exclusively due to the presence of Izturis, Ishikawa, & Conrad on the 25-man roster, along with a complete joke of a bullpen. Melvin & Roenicke are looking completely clueless this season; the roster moves are just god-awful.

[DHonks]

To be honest, this team should be good. Did we expect K-Rod to be among the worst setup men in baseball? Did we expect Veras to be a waste? Weeks was having a breakthrough last year in the 1st half...did anyone expect Weeks to be one of the worst hitters in MLB? Heck, Aoki rarely hits it out of the infield on fewer than 10 hops, and he's been more impressive than Weeks.

[Ennder]

Going into the season with Green and Gamel slotted to play every day would have been bad management. You can't assume a rookie is going to be able to play every day at the major league level, especially rookies who have never had full time play in the majors yet.

 

But yeah the back end of our roster is pretty ugly right now. We had injuries and ineffectiveness in the exact areas where we had no depth

[adambr2]

This bullpen is atrocious. One guy in the entire bullpen with an ERA under 4.18. Yikes.

 

With the really up and down years that Axford and K-Rod are having this year, it's a minor miracle that the streak of winning games when leading after 7 has stood as long as it has.