If the Brewers lose Greinke, rebuild or re-load?

[JohnBriggs12]

longball,

 

You are correct in theory but the facts don't back you up. The pitching just isn't that good. From the perspective of Brewer fans that suffered with some awful staffs oveer the years, it looks good, but even last year the starters had the 6th best ERA in the NL even with some 50 games against the Cubs, Astros and Pirates. You are willing to pay an unlimited price for at best the 6th best rotation? That's foolish.

 

If Greinke gets a Cain-like deal it could cripple the franchise for a decade. Even if he stays healthy and has a good solid 5-6 years, does that guaranty anything? Of course not. If he gets hurt or turns into a John Lackey, the money on his deal is dead money There's no guaranty that a Thornburg or Bradley couldn't do just as well for a lot less too.

 

As for Weeks, frankly I've seen enough. Of all the guys drafted high in the wave that included Braun, Fielder, and Hart, Weeks is the one guy that really never reached his potential which was the highest of all those guys. As he approaches his 30th birthday, he continues to strike out at an alarming rate. He has the talent to hit .320 with 25-30 HR per year. Yet he can't crack .270. He will draw some walks, but now isn't even a threat to steal and many of those walks are because he can't put balls in play and eventually gets deep in counts.

 

Fans aren't going to abandon this team if a Weeks is replaced by a Gennett. Fans love exciting new players. If they haven't yet realized it they soon will that we've seen the best of what Weeks has and he's never going to be that elite player.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't think it's likely at all that Gennett & Gindl can fully replace what Corey & Rickie have done as hitters. The system completely lacks any big-time hitting prospect.

 

Gindl has put up better numbers than Corey Hart at every level of the minor leagues at a younger age. Gindl is a OBP wonder, something we sorely lack...

 

Gennett will never put up Weeks' power numbers but could duplicate his OBP numbers and play much better defense than Weeks

[logan82]

I would go with rebuild if Greinke doesn't sign only after seeing if you could get another front-line starter. I don't think Marcum is back unless he accepts arbitration and I think Wolf's option gets picked up unless he completely falls off a cliff. I think Marcum to one of our minor leaguers is a relatively small drop-off, maybe a couple games. Greinke to the next guy after Marcum's replacement would be a bit more than that. Add the 2 together and I think you probably drop about 5 wins plus natural decline from Hart and Weeks. A competitive team sure but only for the next couple years and then I think we would see a pretty big dropoff. Our minors really don't have much hitting talent.

[RockCoCougars]

Last year was the best pitching staff up and down that the Brewers have had since '92. In '93 the Brewers returned 4/5 of the starting rotation and overhauled the middle guys in the pen quite a bit. They went from first in the A.L. in E.R.A. to tenth.

 

I don't know why, but last year's team along with this past off-season remind me a lot of '92/'93. I hope that we don't see the same results, but if we do, it may be prudent to start dumping guys at the trade deadline.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think it's likely at all that Gennett & Gindl can fully replace what Corey & Rickie have done as hitters. The system completely lacks any big-time hitting prospect.

Gindl has put up better numbers than Corey Hart at every level of the minor leagues at a younger age. Gindl is a OBP wonder, something we sorely lack...

 

Gennett will never put up Weeks' power numbers but could duplicate his OBP numbers and play much better defense than Weeks

Gennett really still has questions in terms of his defense, I have little doubt he'll continue to hit for AVG though.

 

Gindl also has done nothing but hit, but he's probably going to have a hard time against big-league LHP. I think he could roughly match what Hart does v. RHP, and like you said, w/a higher OBP. I just don't think he can match Hart overall as a hitter. With that said, I think overall Gindl will be closer to Hart than Gennett will to Weeks, because Gindl has a significant edge on defense over Hart.

 

I realize that both Weeks & Hart are not elite big-leaguers, but neither one is too far away from that category. I just don't see guys in the minor league system who I think have similar upside to them. I think overall we have a lot of C/C+ grade prospect bats... probably enough that one or two of them could pan out and wind up proving a C grade too conservative.

[logan82]

I hope that we don't see the same results, but if we do, it may be prudent to start dumping guys at the trade deadline.

Depends what you are going to get. Greinke and Marcum would not net a pick for the team trading for them so that will suppress their value a bit. I would have no problem offering both Greinke and Marcum arbitration provided both end the year healthy. Greinke and Marcum on year to year deals would be pretty ideal in my opinion. Weeks and Hart would probably have a good bit of value at the deadline since they are both have more than just this year left. I don't see Ramirez getting traded. I think they should have resigned Hariston and used him with Green at 3B.

 

On the other hand I think that talking about doing anything other than picking up guys at the trading deadline is a moot discussion. We are not going to be bad enough to even consider unloading guys baring multiple horrendous injuries.

 

Of course if Gindl continues to hit "I" would bring him up and trade Hart.

 

Morgan is of course redundant with Aoki and Schaefer in the fold. Maybe trade Morgan and bring up Gindl for some power off the bench.

[TheCrew07]

It's not really arbitration anymore, don't you have to offer a contract worth more than $11 million? Isn't it offering a contract over the average of the top whatever number of players (I want to say 150) which determines compensation or not?

[PrinceFielderx1]

I hope the Brewers are really paying attention to the pitching in the minors league system right now. Especially after tonight. If Thornburg and Peralta keep this up they both could be apart of the Brewers rotation in 2013. I wouldn't be opposed to having the Brewers letting Greinke and Marcum both go after this season and sign someone like Edwin Jackson, pick up Wolf's option, and giving Peralta a starting spot in the rotation right out of the gate in 2013 like what they are doing with Gamel. The Brewers can still be competitive with this rotation and they will be saving at least 10 million in 2013 by doing this. I'm hoping that the Brewers upper management doesn't see Peralta and Thornburg as trade chips, but as possible future home grown stars for the Brewers that they can control for 5+ years instead of 2.

 

A rotation of,

Gallardo

Jackson

Wolf

Peralta

Narveson

 

If Thornburg continues to pitch well from now to June of 2013 call him up then, which will push back his FA eligibility.

[Dollarbill13]

With all the question marks surrounding Utley, Weeks is arguably the best 2B in the NL right now. I'm shocked that anyone would want to trade him when our only replacement is someone whose upside is probably a dropoff of 100 OPS points.

[1992casey]

It's not really arbitration anymore, don't you have to offer a contract worth more than $11 million? Isn't it offering a contract over the average of the top whatever number of players (I want to say 150) which determines compensation or not?

 

Yeah, it's something like that. Arby has no bearing on compensation anymore, and that's the important part.

 

I believe that arby could still come into play if the player and team commit to the player returning for a year.

[PrinceFielderx1]

With all the question marks surrounding Utley, Weeks is arguably the best 2B in the NL right now. I'm shocked that anyone would want to trade him when our only replacement is someone whose upside is probably a dropoff of 100 OPS points.

 

I wouldn't consider trading Weeks till after the 2013 season. If there is a way to keep Hart after 2013 I'd do it. I think that Hart is capable of hitting 40 hr's this season and is going to have a very good year. I think he's the better hitter. I think that people are saying that Weeks can be traded because it's looking like the Brewers will have a cheaper, younger viable alternative in Gennett. If that's the case then it makes sense to consider trading Week's. I'm ok with whatever as long as Weeks proves to be healthy over the rest of the contract from here on out. I'm also pretty sure that Week's contract is contingent on him being healthy or his 2015 option wont vest (Based on PA).

[endaround]

Gennett is not on Week's level. Maybe he'll develop power but right now he's a hitter for average with a low walk rate with questions about his defense.

[Ennder]

You are correct in theory but the facts don't back you up. The pitching just isn't that good. From the perspective of Brewer fans that suffered with some awful staffs oveer the years, it looks good, but even last year the starters had the 6th best ERA in the NL even with some 50 games against the Cubs, Astros and Pirates. You are willing to pay an unlimited price for at best the 6th best rotation? That's foolish

 

You are just using the wrong stats to judge pitching by. It is a bad defensive team in a hitters park in a hitting division. If we had swapped entire pitching staffs with the Cardinals team last year their ERA would go down and ours would go up. The Brewers had the 4th best FIP and 3rd best xFIP last year, there were only 5 or 6 teams in baseball last year with better pitching than the Brewers.

[monty57]

If Greinke is not extended after this season (note that all of these assume healthy, productive seasons from the players discussed):

 

-Of course we offer Greinke arby (or whatever you call it now) to net us an additional first rounder.

 

-I would offer arby to Marcum. If he accepts, we have him for one year, which is ideal for easing our young pitchers into the rotation. If he declines we'd get an extra first rounder.

 

-I would exercise Wolf's option. As with Marcum above, having Wolf for one year will give us a quality SP and allow us to ease our youngsters into the rotation.

 

-I would look to trade Hart. He is a good player, but will only have one year left on his contract. A team looking to contend would likely offer us a decent return for him, and at some point we need to get something in return for one of our players rather than letting all of them walk in free agency. HiandTight's initial post discussed getting a young SS in a deal for Hart, and I think that would be ideal, as we would trade one year of an All Star RF for 5-6 years of a young SS, a position we lack in the minors.

 

-I would trade Morgan, as we will still have Gomez, Aoki and Schafer for CF. Morgan should net some return, we'll save a few million and he's redundant on our roster.

 

-If a ridiculous offer came in for Weeks, I would trade him and let Green/Gennett play 2B. I think the more likely scenario is for Weeks to stay at least until after next season, but if the value you get in return is greater than his value, then you make the trade.

 

-I don't think Ramirez will be very tradeable after this season, as he'll be owed 2 years/$30MM. He's getting old and probably shouldn't be playing 3B now. Green may be a better option now, likely will be a better option next year, and almost assuredly will be a better option in two years, but I think Ramirez will be our 3B through the contract. If we have a bunch of extra money next offseason and use $10MM or so to allow us to get something back in return for Ramirez, I'm all for it, but I doubt it'll happen.

 

-I would look at extending Gamel while he's still in pre-arby years, buying out 1-2 years of free agency. I would continue this in future years as the young pitchers enter their MLB careers.

 

I like the concept of building around a "core," but I think it's important to realize that the core evolves. It can't be the same guys forever. As some of the core players age, leave for free agency, or get traded when their "control years" are coming to an end, we need to have other pre-arby guys become members of the evolving core. We could see this evolution move from a core centered around hitters (Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart) to a core centered around pitchers. Also, the core can be bigger if we do more team-friendly deals in players' pre-arby years rather than market-priced deals to guys nearing free agency. If we continue to get 7-8 years out of our young players (or lock them up and trade them when they've got a year or two left), we can build a sustainably good team.

 

Our farm system has some depth, but not a lot of players who project as star players, especially on the hitting side. Getting more talent in the system is necessary for continued success. This can be through the draft, or it could be from trading off MLB players who are either replaceable or nearing the end of their contract. I don't think a complete rebuild is in order, but we do need to get away from the process of over-reliance on aging veterans and lack of faith in young players.

[3and2Fastball]

One of the things I would like to see as far as a different approach by Melvin is to put a higher priority on guys with OBP. A great example is Jamey Carroll. Now there is a guy with a career .356 OBP and instead we hire a SS with better D than Carroll in Alex Gonzalez with a .291 career OBP

 

I know Carroll is 38 years old but he has started every game at SS for the Twins this season with flawless D and he has a .349 OBP this year

 

Not to get all "Moneyball" on everyone but I truly believe that a strong OBP among several players makes a huge difference in a team's success. We still seem to be built with the "Earl Weaver" philosophy of strong pitching and a 3 run HR and at some point that is going to catch up with you, especially with Fielder out of the lineup

[PrinceEatMeat]

One of the things I would like to see as far as a different approach by Melvin is to put a higher priority on guys with OBP. A great example is Jamey Carroll. Now there is a guy with a career .356 OBP and instead we hire a SS with better D than Carroll in Alex Gonzalez with a .291 career OBP

 

I know Carroll is 38 years old but he has started every game at SS for the Twins this season with flawless D and he has a .349 OBP this year

 

Not to get all "Moneyball" on everyone but I truly believe that a strong OBP among several players makes a huge difference in a team's success. We still seem to be built with the "Earl Weaver" philosophy of strong pitching and a 3 run HR and at some point that is going to catch up with you, especially with Fielder out of the lineup

 

Melvin showed interest in Carroll at the trade deadline and in the offseason. He chose to sign with the Twins. Gonzalez was king of the last resort it seemed. At least he plays good D, and that's most important.

[RockCoCougars]

One of the things I would like to see as far as a different approach by Melvin is to put a higher priority on guys with OBP. A great example is Jamey Carroll. Now there is a guy with a career .356 OBP and instead we hire a SS with better D than Carroll in Alex Gonzalez with a .291 career OBP

 

The Twins overpaid Carroll. He just got his batting average above .200 last night and has one extra base hit this season. Gonzalez is who he is, but I'd take him any day over Carroll. The Brewers are only giving him an extra few hundred thousand or so this season, and didn't have to lock in for next year.

[RightFieldCoder]

Earl Weaver was all about the OBP. You had to have people getting on base all the time to get those 3 run homers.

 

The "Moneyball" approach would not currently mean getting high OBP guys. Moneyball was about getting guys that were undervalued by other teams. If teams value a player as a 0 win player but you think he's worth 3 wins, you can offer him the contract of a 1 win player and outbid all the other teams yet still be cheap. OBP is not something currently undervalued. If anything, we have gone the Moneyball way. Everyone's preaching OBP and defense. We went with power guys that other teams don't want (because of the low OBP and bad defense).

[logan82]

I would look at extending Gamel while he's still in pre-arby years, buying out 1-2 years of free agency

I am not so sure I would want to do that. Depends on the money but we have Gamel through 2016 which is his age 31 season. I wouldn't want to pay much for his age 32-33 years. I think he is a good player who may age well but I wouldn't look at a long term contract for him yet.

[Warning Track Power]

I would look at extending Gamel while he's still in pre-arby years, buying out 1-2 years of free agency

I am not so sure I would want to do that. Depends on the money but we have Gamel through 2016 which is his age 31 season. I wouldn't want to pay much for his age 32-33 years. I think he is a good player who may age well but I wouldn't look at a long term contract for him yet.

 

Honestly, if you are the Brewers and are reasonably confident Gamel will be the 1B for the next 5-6 seasons, I think you explore the possibility for the sake of cost certainty. Knowing what the costs are for half of your everyday players LF Braun, 2B Weeks, C Lucroy and 1B Gamel into at least 2015 may allow them to forecast their budget enough to make big signings like Greinke possible. The risk is if Gamel and or Lucroy regress or underachieve. I like this idea if it allows for the Brewers to extend elite talent like Greinke elsewhere.

[monty57]

I would look at extending Gamel while he's still in pre-arby years, buying out 1-2 years of free agency

I am not so sure I would want to do that. Depends on the money but we have Gamel through 2016 which is his age 31 season. I wouldn't want to pay much for his age 32-33 years. I think he is a good player who may age well but I wouldn't look at a long term contract for him yet.

 

That's a good point. I guess I was thinking that he has one pre-arby year left and could probably be signed for a pretty inexpensive deal, something like Lucroy's 5 years, $11MM deal with an option for a 6th year. Gamel's getting older and would probably like the "guaranteed set for life" deal, it wouldn't hurt the franchise too much if he falters, and the low price tag would make him tradeable should the need arise. If we wait until he's a year or two into arbitration, then we risk him demanding a lot more money, while there's not that much risk, as it's likely that veteran bench players will be making that much money in five years.

 

In general, I'm more interested in doing these type of deals to people the front office decides are core pieces of the future than I am in specifically giving one to one particular player. If they decide to go year-to-year with Gamel because they want to lock up guys like Peralta, Thornberg, Jungman, Bradley, etc, then I'm fine with that. We could miss on four of these deals for the same cost of missing on one Suppan deal (not adjusting for inflation...it's probably more like five).

 

In an ideal world, every year we'd have a prospect or two forcing their way onto the team. We'd lock up the "core" ones so that we'd have 7-8 of their best years, and we'd let the "non-core" ones go year-to-year, trading players when necessary and letting others play to free agency and getting draft picks. We'd only use free agency to fill in the gaps around our young, relatively inexpensive core. Very rarely (in the case of a probable Hall of Famer like Braun) would we "break the bank" for a huge deal. Maybe that's not realistic in the real world, but it appeared to be the path we were pursuing until a few years ago, when we decided we were all in, all the time, and now we're discussing whether we should blow up the team for a complete rebuild.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wouldn't lock up Gamel for an extended period. I like him at his cost controlled price, but he's also a guy with a checkered work ethic in the minors. I like that he's found his motivation this year, but I'd be worried putting a bunch of dough in his pocket would lose his focus. He'd also be replaceable at the levels they'd need to pay him in his FA years.

[MJLiverock]

No kidding, how about we wait and see if Gamel can put up oh I don't know, 1 month of good production at the ML level before trying to extend his contract or buy out free agency years. I know he is supposed to be a decent hitter but he doesn't even have 250 ML PA's yet and it's not like those sporadic AB's have put him on the the cover of magazines and inspired the naming of children.

[monty57]

No kidding, how about we wait and see if Gamel can put up oh I don't know, 1 month of good production at the ML level before trying to extend his contract or buy out free agency years. I know he is supposed to be a decent hitter but he doesn't even have 250 ML PA's yet and it's not like those sporadic AB's have put him on the the cover of magazines and inspired the naming of children.

 

That's why I tried to protect myself in the initial post by saying my moves assumed the players were healthy and productive this season :-)

 

If Gamel sucks this year, I certainly wouldn't want to extend him. Of course, if Greinke posts a 9.50 ERA or blows out his shoulder, I probably wouldn't offer him arbitration and if Morgan hits .200 and gets suspended for attacking a fan he probably won't be tradeable and we'll just cut ties with him. Any discussion about what moves we should make next offseason has to come with a big disclaimer of "we don't know what this season will bring."