Minor league Pitching

[narwhalattack]

As of right now the Brewers would likely have a top 10 pick in next year's draft. I really hope they go for high ceiling guys, not guys who are gonna contribute quickly as #5 starters. No more Jungmann's, no more Arnett's. How about guys like Fernandez, Guerrieri, and Barnes? I lament over how the Brewers went for quick to the major #4 starters in a VERY deep draft in 2011. I hope and I wish they go for a high ceiling guy, even if he would take a while to develop. Yet I have a terrible gut feeling that they are still gonna go with another Jungmann, if they decide to go with pitching. They seem to have an obsession with #3/4 workhorse starters.

[sfl2hnq17]

Bieder, I just wanted to point that Gagnon just turned 22. He's not "23-24."

Also wanted to say that Bradley and Jungmann haven't even been signed in our system for one calendar year and some are already writing them off. I don't really understand that. As for upside picks last year, they picked a pretty good one in Jorge Lopez but people tend to put blinders on things that don't fit their argument.

[paul253]

I don't think it's really fair to knock the Jungmann and Bradley. We are talking about guys who are both top 10 picks in most drafts and quite honestly I think we were lucky to get them. Taylor Guerrieri was a guy I liked too but I couldn't have complained too much about taking a left handed college pitcher with pretty decent upside. Alex Meyer I wanted nothing to do with. And remember at the time our pitching ranks didn't even compare to how it does now. Jimmy Nelson had yet to step up. Burgos had yet to step up. There was no Lopez or Gagnon. We needed help bad and Jungmann and Bradley were both huge upgrades over everything we had other than Thornburg and Peralta. And at the time most people ranked them as better prospects than Thornburg. I have no idea why they are struggling so much this season but it's their first professional season so give it some time.

 

By the way, he doesn't get much attention because he isn't a starter, but Tommy Toledo is putting up some solid numbers in Wisconsin. But it leads me to another problem i have with Melvin. He seems to take WAY too long to promote his guys. I understand why you let the younger guys like Lopez sit at a level for a while, but I get extremely frustrated sometimes with his attitude that players HAVE TO spend at least half a season at a level even if they are dominating. Tommy Toledo, for instance. He was a college pitcher and is old for Low A ball. Why is he still down there? Why did it take so long for Drew Gagnon to move up? I remember being ridiculously frustrated with how long it took Tyler Thornburg to be promoted to Huntsville last year. And even with how long it took him to move up to Nashville this year. Guys get attention by shooting through the system. This methodical, at least half a season at every level no matter how old you are attitude is a reason why a lot of these guys aren't getting the national recognition they should be.

[TheCrew07]

The only promotions Melvin has anything to do with are the promotions to MLB. Reid Nichols and his staff control the rest and if i had to guess to Lee Tunnell is in charge of the pitching promotions and he's such a wonderful resource for our pitchers I'm willing to defer to his judgement.

[biedergb]

Yeah, missed that on Gagnon. I must have been thinking about someone else when writing in terms of age. And as I wrote my post this was somewhat of a vent - I just miss the days of reading the minor league reports and having a handful of players to follow who were really exciting. Now we have some nice players, and several potentially exciting guys mostly in the lower minors. I hope Nelson and Gagnon continue on the success this year, and here's hoping that Jungman and Bradley reach their potential.

[paul253]

The only promotions Melvin has anything to do with are the promotions to MLB. Reid Nichols and his staff control the rest and if i had to guess to Lee Tunnell is in charge of the pitching promotions and he's such a wonderful resource for our pitchers I'm willing to defer to his judgement.

I would assume that Doug Melvin could easily say "be more aggressive with promotions, especially with the older guys" and it would be done. And of course they know more about it than I do, but again, perception just seems to be that promotions are slow to come even when warranted.

[TheCrew07]

Not sure if I linked this earlier when I started linking more articles, but here it is again just in case, I just reread it today.

 

Teams Take Widely Varied Approaches To Developing Top Young Arms

[paul253]

Mark Rogers has had two good starts in a row. 14 innings pitched 1 run 7 hits 1 walk and 13Ks. I continue to get frustrated by his inconsistency but starts like this keep me hopeful he can contribute. If both Marcum and Greinke end up getting traded I'd like to see him get some starts at the big league level.

[jjfanec]

With Peralta and Rogers looking better lately we have 4 guys with little MLB experience who will be fighting for up to 3 spots. Gallardo and Estrada are locks. I have no idea what to expect from Narveson. That leaves up to 3 spots for Fiers (seems like a lock), Thornburg (highly likely) and then Peralta/Rogers. Rogers will be in the pen if he isnt starting.

[JohnBriggs12]

With Peralta and Rogers looking better lately we have 4 guys with little MLB experience who will be fighting for up to 3 spots. Gallardo and Estrada are locks. I have no idea what to expect from Narveson. That leaves up to 3 spots for Fiers (seems like a lock), Thornburg (highly likely) and then Peralta/Rogers. Rogers will be in the pen if he isnt starting.

 

I'd throw Burgos into the mix as well though it might be next July before we see him. We've seen from the results Fiers is having that you can't completely toss out great results in the minors as a predictor of success, and nobody is getting better results this year than Hiram.

[paul253]

I'm just wondering if Burgos can keep it up next season. He didn't have good numbers in 2011 or 2010 so it'll be interesting to see if he continues to progress or falls back into that 4.50 ERA range.

[HiAndTight]

As of right now the Brewers would likely have a top 10 pick in next year's draft. I really hope they go for high ceiling guys, not guys who are gonna contribute quickly as #5 starters. No more Jungmann's, no more Arnett's. How about guys like Fernandez, Guerrieri, and Barnes? I lament over how the Brewers went for quick to the major #4 starters in a VERY deep draft in 2011. I hope and I wish they go for a high ceiling guy, even if he would take a while to develop. Yet I have a terrible gut feeling that they are still gonna go with another Jungmann, if they decide to go with pitching. They seem to have an obsession with #3/4 workhorse starters.

 

 

This nonsense about us picking guys with the ceilings to be #4 starters is just getting old and it's uninformed.

 

Bradley coming out of the Cape Cod league was projected to be a potential top 5 pick who was hitting 97. Taylor Jungman has an assortment of pitches and a live arm, and his ball moves.

 

In no way did the Brewers go "safe," with these picks hoping to get middle of the rotation or in your argument, back of the rotation starters. That's just ridiculous. They were drafted to be #1 or #2 type starters with the worst case scenario, assuming they become regular major league pitchers, avoid injury and make it to the big leagues(which is always a big assumption given pitchers) to be middle of the rotation innings eaters.

 

But now in the middle of July, we're writing them off as guys with the celing of a #4 because they're not dominating..and instead you list only the guys who are dominating. There were a couple others that were being called for on this board who are struggling worse.

 

For a pitcher in his first year, teams often develop a plan to help that pitcher not to dominate in his particular level(which is always great), but rather to refine and work on their pitches they need work on. So where Jungman may get a strikeout on a 1-2 count by throwing his slider, they want him to throw his change so it develops, thus improving the pitcher overall, but diminishing his numbers. I don't know what exactly the case is with either Bradley or Jungman, both of whom have dazzled at times this year and both of whom have flamed out. I do know for a GB hitter to give up 13 hits in a game, all singles, you're simply suffering from bad luck there.

[HiAndTight]

With Peralta and Rogers looking better lately we have 4 guys with little MLB experience who will be fighting for up to 3 spots. Gallardo and Estrada are locks. I have no idea what to expect from Narveson. That leaves up to 3 spots for Fiers (seems like a lock), Thornburg (highly likely) and then Peralta/Rogers. Rogers will be in the pen if he isnt starting.

 

I'd throw Burgos into the mix as well though it might be next July before we see him. We've seen from the results Fiers is having that you can't completely toss out great results in the minors as a predictor of success, and nobody is getting better results this year than Hiram.

 

It might be this July before we see him. There is Mr. Burgos, please thank Mr. Fiers. We all get caught up in velocity(which don't get me wrong is huge), but as a hitter, as someone else was explaining on a broadcast, or on MLB TV, wherever I heard it, it's about the hitters swing and how they look vs you. Hitters look behind Fiers and his 90 MPH fastball all day. And then he's capable of just carving up both sides of the plate with his off-speed stuff.

 

Burgos looks as though he may be another pitcher similar to Fiers. I'm still baffled they were even considering taking him out of the rotation, but anyway. He's dominated pretty well now from BC to Huntsville racking up the strikeouts without that elite velocity.

 

Of course next July is more likely, I'm simply saying as well as he's pitching now, if the Brewers got back into it, and Axford did his job to really help ensure that didn't happen last night, he could be up this year even.

[HiAndTight]

I'm just wondering if Burgos can keep it up next season. He didn't have good numbers in 2011 or 2010 so it'll be interesting to see if he continues to progress or falls back into that 4.50 ERA range.

 

 

He was pretty dominant in Helena as a rookie in 2010. Not as good in Wisconsin in 2010 however.

[paul253]

2010 was his second go around in Helena. In 2009 he posted a 5.62 ERA through 14 games.

 

I'm as excited about his breakout season as anyone but maybe we should hold off proclaiming him major league ready based on one season of success in A and AA ball. Mike Fiers dominated every level he was in over a three year period. Burgos had a good 6 games in Rookie ball in 2009 and is having a good 2012. In between he wasn't all that impressive. I'd be fine keeping him in Huntsville the rest of the season and bumping him up to Nashville next year.

[Mr Southpaw]

I'm just wondering if Burgos can keep it up next season. He didn't have good numbers in 2011 or 2010 so it'll be to see if he continues to progress or falls back into that 4.50 ERA range.

 

I am not sure,but it seems that he has developed an additional pitch or really mastered that pitch. Does anyone have any information?

 

On a different note, I see Maverick Lasker and Nick Bucci pitching in Arizona. Does anyone know anything about these two?

[jjfanec]

Biggest disappointment (pitching) of the year outside of the injured guys?

 

I would say it is easily Bradley. Most on this board really liked him compared to Jungmann but Bradley has been brutal lately

[jmeks23]

Biggest disappointment (pitching) of the year outside of the injured guys?

 

I would say it is easily Bradley. Most on this board really liked him compared to Jungmann but Bradley has been brutal lately

 

 

I agree, he's been awful lately. I was one of those who definitely loved his arm and I hope he can turn it around. The unfortunate thing is he's pitching in the most pitcher friendly league that he'll ever be in (assuming he stays with the Brewers) and he hasn't been good. I think his secondary pitches need A LOT of work.

[brewmann04]

I think Tyler needs a year at Triple A to gain some movement on his fastball as well refine his secondary Pitches. Seems like Tom H in some of his tweets sounded a bit down on Tyler.

I really hope Willy and Mark have turned the corner and can contribute in the starting rotation next year. I have to think if Fliers finshes out the year strong he should be a lock for a spot.

That be Yo,and the M&M boys as well as Rogers and Peralta and Narvy battling for spots if Marcum and Wolf and Grienke leave. I expect Doug to keep one of the Vets as well add a Fa if he can for the 2013 Rotation.

[LouisEly]

Nelson didn't look good his first year either. Usually in their first year or even first two years pitchers are working on specific things - mechanics and/or an additional pitch, and stats/results are secondary. Few guys come out of college with three polished plus pitches and have success right away; often college pitchers abandon certain pitches or rarely throw them because of the bats used at the college level, and have to learn or re-learn that pitch when they get to pro ball.

[TheCrew07]

I don't really have a problem with that idea Louis but that's not what the organization said about Bradley when they drafted him, nor did they say Jungmann would need additional development. After all shouldn't college pitchers be 3 years ahead on the development cycle vs high school pitchers? Isn't the high flame rate for high school draftees the same as it is for the number HS players that fail as college athletes in other sports? If you're a first round college pitcher you'd better be able to dominate A ball with just your FB and a so/so other pitch or you don't belong getting drafted in the first round. It's one thing to excuse away Lopez struggling AZ, it's another to make those same excuses for Bradley.

 

Both pitchers were billed as fast movers and the issue here is really why Bradley like Frederickson, Heckathorn, and a slew of other pitchers the Brewers drafted have experienced abrupt and significant velocity loss. The only person I recall off the top of my head who really despised the Bradley pick was X, but he hasn't been around in forever. I'm going to reserve judgement on a newly drafted and projectable LHP, especially when we didn't have any above rookie ball. However there were plenty of warning signs about Bradley, especially his lack of production coming into the draft and inconsistent velocity.

 

Hopefully he turns it around in a hurry, but it looks like he was placed too high and maybe should have started out in WI instead.

[homer]

As for the Brewers failures developing pitchers, I really wonder if they are unique in that regard. Seems to me there are only one or two teams that consistently turn out solid arms.

[MJLiverock]

To piggyback on the first part of TheCrew's post I wonder how much "development" training or focus college pitchers get while in college. The coaching staff's there are incentivized to win now and getting a guy ready for MLB is probably pretty low on the list of their priorities. If a college pitcher can get guys out with 1 or 2 pitches I doubt the coaches care to rock the boat and try to work in a 2nd or third or tell the guy to change his delivery. I see college coaches taking a "if it is working at this level don't change it" approach regardless of longer term issues like secondary pitches, mechanics issues, etc. Leave me thinking a lot of college pitchers probably have built up arm strength over HS guys, more comfort on the mound, got a little better coaching, but aren't light years ahead of the HS guys in terms of secondary pitches, mechanics, non pitching day routines, etc.

[Mr Southpaw]

On a different note, I see Maverick Lasker and Nick Bucci pitching in Arizona. Does anyone know anything about these two?

[Mass Haas]

On a different note, I see Maverick Lasker and Nick Bucci pitching in Arizona. Does anyone know anything about these two?

 

Strictly from an injury-aspect, Lasker is rehabbing a lower back injury, Bucci initially listed as biceps, had heard it had been more of a shoulder-based injury. Don't believe (not definite) that either was surgically addressed.