Would the Brewers trade KRod?

[TooLiveBrew]

Well sorry. I honestly didn't think it was condescending. I think the dollar value placed on one-inning RPs is astronomically high... not even close to what the position produces.

 

I apologize to you & anyone else I have offended. The context was meant to be that all (or the vast, vast majority) here are well informed & most seem to agree closers are way overvalued.

[RockCoCougars]

The problem is that there is no selling high on K-Rod in my view.

 

In the OP, the idea was broached because of the Red Sox's closer getting injured. Thus, need creates demand. I don't think anyone thinks we should be "shopping" K-Rod.

 

But if someone comes knocking...

 

Of course, but don't you have to get MLB talent for him at this point? I don't see any glaring need as things stand for the Brewers. Let's say that Gonzalez was going to be out for a long period of time and the Red Sox had an MLB ready shortstop who was blocked... then we may be on to something. At this point, I don't see a match. Let's face it, the Brewers have been selling the whole K-Rod/Axford combo hard. Wouldn't they come out of things with egg on their face if they traded him for an A/AA prospect or two right now?

[TooLiveBrew]

Of course, but don't you have to get MLB talent for him at this point?

 

No. To me, that would be the whole point -- getting a prospect who could potentially serve as a fulltime starter at some point, rather than moving him for some role player for the current roster.

 

 

Let's say that Gonzalez was going to be out for a long period of time and the Red Sox had an MLB ready shortstop who was blocked

 

Well, they have a SS who's basically MLB ready (with questions about the bat) in Jose Iglesias. Why should the Brewers wait to see if Gonzalez gets hurt? They're going to need a longterm solution for SS at some point who's cheap & under team control for a long time. That would be Iglesias (assuming in this hypothetical that the BoSox would agree to that deal, not sure they really would). If the Brewers could get him, he would have up to two full seasons to work on his swing at AAA, given Gonzalez's presence.

[CheezWizHed]

Wouldn't they come out of things with egg on their face if they traded him for an A/AA prospect or two right now?

 

Of course they would. And if they traded him for Trout, they would look brilliant. No one is advocating that they make a trade, just to get rid of him. They still have to make a "good" trade...

 

But if someone had a need for a closer and came knocking with a deal that fills a long term need (like at SS as TLB suggested), I wouldn't have an issue flipping K-Rod.

 

These type of trades rarely happen this early in the season anyway. If the Red Sox start to struggle closing games and their closer is going to be out for a while and NYY is pulling away from them... then they might come knocking.

[RockCoCougars]

Of course, but don't you have to get MLB talent for him at this point?

 

No. To me, that would be the whole point -- getting a prospect who could potentially serve as a fulltime starter at some point, rather than moving him for some role player for the current roster.

 

 

Let's say that Gonzalez was going to be out for a long period of time and the Red Sox had an MLB ready shortstop who was blocked

 

Well, they have a SS who's basically MLB ready (with questions about the bat) in Jose Iglesias. Why should the Brewers wait to see if Gonzalez gets hurt? They're going to need a longterm solution for SS at some point who's cheap & under team control for a long time. That would be Iglesias (assuming in this hypothetical that the BoSox would agree to that deal, not sure they really would). If the Brewers could get him, he would have up to two full seasons to work on his swing at AAA, given Gonzalez's presence.

 

I see the point, but wouldn't such a move severely weaken the bullpen this season with an eye on 2014? K-Rod accepting arbitration probably cost the team Saito and possibly Hawkins as well. If K-Rod were to be traded and God forbid, Axford went down with an injury, what then? This doesn't even consider the fact that Loe would go back to the role that he had last year at this time.... Bottom line, I feel that (like Morgan) K-Rod has more value to the Brewers as it stands now then he does on the trade market. If we were looking at a team without playoff aspirations, maybe you could convince me of such a move, but I want to win again this year.

[monty57]

If we were looking at a team without playoff aspirations, maybe you could convince me of such a move, but I want to win again this year.

 

This is why it won't happen, but it doesn't mean that it shouldn't happen.

 

Melvin has built this team to win last year and this year, and I doubt he does anything that would in any way jeopardize the chance of winning this year, even if it would greatly increase the chance of the team winning in future years.

 

Once again I'll say it... I really hope the Brewers win the World Series this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I see the point, but wouldn't such a move severely weaken the bullpen this season with an eye on 2014?

 

*If* there's a deal like the hypothetical we've been discussing in this thread, then I would argue the Brewers would be weakening 2013-2018 at the expense of 2012.

 

I want to see the Brewers win & contend this season too, but I'm far more concerned about longer-term planning. I think [replacement setup RP]+[hypothetical SS via trade] >>> K-Rod for 2012 at $8M.

 

Morgan may well have more value to the Brewers on the field than on the trade market (partially because he's still under team salary control through 2014), but I disagree about K-Rod. I think an elite RP/closer has a decent amount of value at this point of the season when there are teams with legitimate needs for those positions.

[TURBO]

Let's face it, the Brewers have been selling the whole K-Rod/Axford combo hard. Wouldn't they come out of things with egg on their face if they traded him for an A/AA prospect or two right now?

 

Yet they couldn't give us a K-Rod bobblehead this year?

 

That still angers me...

[jjfanec]

I dont know why people think there is a lot of teams out there willing to give up much of a prospect for K-Rod. He checked the market for closers and no one really wanted him that much then. Why would they give up a prospect now? The teams with hurt closers are the Reds and Red Sox. The Reds have Marshall to close and they seem happy with that and the Red Sox will get Bailey back in a couple months.

[GormanHarvey]

Bailey won't be back til after the all star break, at the earliest.

[jjfanec]

Bailey won't be back til after the all star break, at the earliest.

 

Just saw the length of time on him. So the Red Sox could be a fit but there is zero indication they have any interest and we will never know what type of player they would be willing to give up even if they are interested. The Brewers should definitely listen but I would doubt this will happen

[jerichoholicninja]

I dont know why people think there is a lot of teams out there willing to give up much of a prospect for K-Rod. He checked the market for closers and no one really wanted him that much then. Why would they give up a prospect now? The teams with hurt closers are the Reds and Red Sox. The Reds have Marshall to close and they seem happy with that and the Red Sox will get Bailey back in a couple months.

 

Pitchers generally don't get injured during the offseason, they do in Spring Training. Last time K-Rod was "out there" GM's were happy with what they had. Since then players have gotten hurt or not performed as expected. Oakland, Tampa, Washington, Boston, Kansas City all lost their closers during spring training. I would guess that Boston will call if their bullpen struggles.

[RockCoCougars]

Again, what does Boston have that makes the Brewers better this year? As I said above, I'm not worried about 2014, I want to win this year.

 

If Buchholz didn't have the broken back thing, I guess that I'd do Marcum/K-Rod for him, but I highly doubt that they would. K-Rod is the type of player that would probably have more value at the trade deadline. Right now, teams see their 'closers in waiting' through rose-colored glasses. It's likely going to take a bunch of blown saves to get that to change.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't know what Boston has that the Brewers would want but if their bullpen struggles and their sitting behind New York, Tampa Bay and Toronto in the middle of May they will want to make moves. Hopefully, desperate ones.

[TheCrew07]

Again, what does Boston have that makes the Brewers better this year? As I said above, I'm not worried about 2014, I want to win this year.

 

Well I'd like to win every year and you don't do that by squandering opportunities to make your organization stronger. Why is K-Rod so irreplaceable? He's just an 8th inning guy... how do you know there isn't someone in the organization who pitch as well as he does this season? Relievers just don't carry much value and if there is someone out there who overvalues why not take advantage of the situation.

 

I'll ask a different question, why is every Brewer player someone suggests trading irreplaceable in the current season? Is it not possible to trade someone away and actually become a better team? How does every single trade of someone currently on the roster somehow weaken the team enough that they won't win? It's been the same argument around here forever. We can never trade any established MLB player unless we are out of it, but it's okay to dump loads of prospects and continually thin out the organization year after year? We can't move a player in the off season because we need for the upcoming year, and then we can't trade them during the season because we need them too much for the current playoff run. So the only time many of you are willing to trade a player is in the 2 months before his contract is up if it looks like we don't have shot at the playoffs? Why is there is such fear of the unknown? What prospect has failed more than a Suppan, Davis, Looper, etc?

 

That's such an incredibly narrow and limiting view of talent and roster management I just won't get behind it. Why limit yourself to such a finite set of criteria? Trading Hardy for a good young pitcher would have made the team better because Hardy + (whatever 0 WAR pitcher you choose) wasn't as valuable as Escobar + young starting pitcher... not even in the first season when both players would have been breaking in, and certainly not as valuable now. Maybe if you make that deal you don't have to acquire Greinke and we have Lo Cain roaming CF and Odorizzi in AA this year. Trading Hart for Matt Cain (rumored deal in 2007) would have made sense just like going after Niemann or Jackson when TB was shopping them (2008-2009) would have made sense. There is plenty of upside to trading established MLB talent, it's almost shocking how many posts are vehemently against the concept in any single thread.

 

I don't buy that Melvin didn't have other opportunities to acquire talent and how people defend him with the "what else was he supposed to do?" card. The dominoes didn't have to fall the way they did, that's just how the decisions he's made happened to shake out. However, if you open your mind to other ideas and avenues to acquire talent and build an organization then the possibilities start to become rather limitless. Of the 3 ways to acquire talent; via trade, via free agency, and via the draft, I just don't see why it's a good idea to continue place limits on what you're willing to do and max out the payroll every single year. Doing so simply causes one to miss out on opportunities that could provide better value in the end.

 

When you only make a certain type of trade, have limited financial resources, and aren't drafting extremely well then how are you going to sustain any kind of success? It really is that simple.

[PeaveyFury]

Crew07, you repeatedly mention deals that were 'rumored' or say what should have been done without actually knowing what was really discussed or what is simple internet rumor. For all you know, it was the Brewers proposing Hart for Cain, and the Giants walking away.

 

There isn't one and only one way to build a team. The one that Melvin has chosen seems to have worked out pretty well to this point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Crew07, I know you often refer to that rumored deal, but the rumor was Fielder for Cain, not Hart for Cain.

 

Trading Hardy for a good young pitcher would have made the team better because Hardy + (whatever 0 WAR pitcher you choose) wasn't as valuable as Escobar + young starting pitcher... not even in the first season when both players would have been breaking in, and certainly not as valuable now. Maybe if you make that deal you don't have to acquire Greinke and we have Lo Cain roaming CF and Odorizzi in AA this year.

This nails it, for me. Is it a hypothetical? Of course. But this is exactly the type of shift in philosophy the Brewers are going to need to sustain success.

 

I know 'buy low, sell high' is repeated so often with regards to baseball trading that the phrase loses a little of its literal meaning, but playing the stock market well is exactly the kind of approach the Brewers should adopt. Buy the asset before it's at its peak, not after. Will you miss on some? Absolutely. But by keeping Hardy, it turned out the Brewers missed just about as badly as was possible.

 

It's kind of painful how well 'buy high, sell low' describes Melvin's approach as GM.

[RockCoCougars]

Well I'd like to win every year and you don't do that by squandering opportunities to make your organization stronger. Why is K-Rod so irreplaceable? He's just an 8th inning guy... how do you know there isn't someone in the organization who pitch as well as he does this season? Relievers just don't carry much value and if there is someone out there who overvalues why not take advantage of the situation.

 

First of all, I have to say that closers are so 'overrated', they're probably undervalued now. I'm sure that all the GM's in baseball are aware of this idea, and I highly doubt that the Red Sox would give up much more value for a reliever after trading for Bailey. That said, I think Brewers fans have been lucky that the team has basically been able to plug Option B or Option C into the closer role every few years since Plesac faltered in '91, and these fall backs have done quite well,(though the shelf life has varied...). That's not a common thing. Many teams with playoff aspirations have been foiled by an unsettled bullpen. As for K-Rod being overvalued as an eighth inning guy, what is the alternative? We've seen set up guys perform poorly in the past (recently Linebrink, Loe last May, etc.). Who is going to step in? I know that the clever answer is 'whoever fits the situation best', but that ain't happening. Roenicke and pretty much every manager these days uses situational relievers (rightly or wrongly). I actually am somewhat nervous about K-Rod's potential this season, but I certainly don't want Loe used as the primary set up guy again.

 

The second issue here is what does Boston have to offer the Brewers? The only name that I've seen in this thread is a shortstop who looks like a watered down Alcides Escobar (except this guy hasn't hit in the minors). I don't see how he would help any time in the near future. Is there anyone else?

[TooLiveBrew]

Many teams with playoff aspirations have been foiled by an unsettled bullpen.

 

This perfectly describes the Cards for most of the season last season, & then they traded for bullpen depth (sending away a very talented young player) & 'pen guys got hot, especially in the postseason. Just shows how unpredictable & volatile RP production can be over the course of a season/half-season/quarter-season.

 

 

Who is going to step in? I know that the clever answer is 'whoever fits the situation best', but that ain't happening.

 

I know you're a diehard Brewers fan, but I think you're really missing a lot of options here. If you're talking for just one season... Peralta, Fiers, Manzanillo, Rogers, & Braddock are all guys who could conceivably step in and throw well over 60-70 IP. (I personally wouldn't want to mess with Peralta as a SP, but he's an option if one would want to consider letting him grow against MLB hitters from the bullpen)

[monty57]

Crew07, you repeatedly mention deals that were 'rumored' or say what should have been done without actually knowing what was really discussed or what is simple internet rumor. For all you know, it was the Brewers proposing Hart for Cain, and the Giants walking away.

 

There isn't one and only one way to build a team. The one that Melvin has chosen seems to have worked out pretty well to this point.

 

Here's another to add to the list. MLBtraderumors reported that Seattle tried to trade Pineda to Toronto for Lawrie, but Toronto wouldn't do it. Had we traded Lawrie for a player like Pineda, we probably still would've won the division last year, and would be better into the future. I don't know if there was a deal like this out there last year, but I'd bet there was. If we're trading Lawrie, I would've preferred six years of a young, Pineda-type pitcher over two years of Marcum. But, since we're apparently only interested in "win now" Melvin chose two years of proven good over six years of potentially great.

[endaround]

Its Lawrie and another prospect. So no that deal did not exist. Getting pitching without giving up pitching is really hard to do.

[Eye Black]

With the Red Sox leading 10-7 entering the 9th inning, Aceves gave up 3 runs on 3 hits without recording an out and blowing the save for the Red Sox.....and then in the 11th Melancon blew a two run lead to lose 13-12.

 

Looks like they might be in the market for a closer.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm thinking that Melvin and Roenicke really love having K-Rod in the 8th inning all year and Boston would need to really overpay to get K-Rod, more than just a SS prospect

 

Not sure what Boston was thinking giving all that $$$ to Bailey, he's been injury prone much of his career

[brettac1]

I think it's quite early for them to think about looking for a closer. Those guys will be fine.

[Roderick]

I think it's quite early for them to think about looking for a closer. Those guys will be fine.

The extra wildcard may make them more patient (plus the Yankees @ 1-3 also), but I have to think that the Red Sox are under pressure to cleanse last year's memory and a slow start won't do that. Plus that division is so darn tough, I would hate to get too far behind any team.