Matt Cain signs extension - 6 years / $127.5 million

[JohnBriggs12]

Those are crazy numbers for any pitcher especially one (Greinke) who's had one outstanding season, a few solid seasons and a couple that are mediocre. If you invest that kind of money and he turns into John Lackey, or gets hurt like Jake Peavy, or Johan Santana, you cripple the franchise for 5-7 years minimum. Want the Brewers to turn into the Mets? I don't. The Mets paid Santana $21.7 million last year to rehab. His contract precluded them keeping Reyes too. Because of the Madoff thing, the Mets became like a small market team. Big contracts going bad kill small market teams. Yeah it might be tough to see Greinke walk if he's great this year (not a sure thing by any means), but it's not going to cripple you long term. The money you save, if wisely spent, elsewhere can make up for it and you continue to get extra high draft picks to stock your system.

 

Save that money. Put it into the farm system. Pay everyday performers. Just don't overpay for starting pitching. They got Greinke because they had the prospects to get him. Get more prospects. Develop your own pitching, then deal from strength for guys if need be.

[Ennder]

I tend to agree JB12 though I think the team has kind of put themselves into a weird position where they feel they need to keep Greinke to stay competitive until the next wave of prospects reach AA/AAA. Since they have pulled 3M in attendance I think they are going to try to keep a winning team on the field as long as they can to keep that number up. I'd much rather pay big money for Greinke rather than extend Marcum.

[Warning Track Power]

I tend to agree JB12 though I think the team has kind of put themselves into a weird position where they feel they need to keep Greinke to stay competitive until the next wave of prospects reach AA/AAA. Since they have pulled 3M in attendance I think they are going to try to keep a winning team on the field as long as they can to keep that number up. I'd much rather pay big money for Greinke rather than extend Marcum.

 

After sleeping on it last night, I think this is the most likely scenario. While I am not saying I agree and the Brewers basically shut down contract extension talks with marcum in Spring Training, I think if Greinke proves to be too expensive then we will see a Marcum extension (provided he pitches like 1st half Marcum and not September/October Marcum).

[PrinceEatMeat]

Basically what will happen if Greinke walks if we'll re-sign Marcum to contract for more than he's worth, and exercise Wolf's option. I'd much rather just have Greinke long-term, and go with Peralta and Fiers in the two open spots.

[Warning Track Power]

Agreed PEM.

 

I'd rather have a rotation with Yo and Greinke at the top. Filled out with Narveson at #3 and minimum players at #4 and #5 Peralta, Fiers, Bradley, Jungmann. Additionally, Axford is really the only arm in the pen who might get expensive. Braddock, Kintzler, Dillard, McClendon etc...could serve as a serviceable and inexpensive pen. Same with the lineup. Keep Braun and Weeks as the main guys and fill in with minimum guys as well such as Lucroy (to an extent) Gamel, Schafer, Gindl & Green.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yep, I think that's what the plan has to be to stay cost effective. Can't overdue it with the big contracts. Should be fine though with just 2 high paid pitchers and 2 high paid position players. At least long-term that is. Short-term there's still Ramirez and Hart.

[RockCoCougars]

Basically what will happen if Greinke walks if we'll re-sign Marcum to contract for more than he's worth, and exercise Wolf's option.

 

Exactly. I think that you have to overpay a bit to retain Greinke. Otherwise, you will be overpaying anyway- ponying up to the table for risky contracts (Suppan/Wolf) or for mediocrity- the Braden Loopers and Doug Davises (2010 version) of the world. $4-$5 million here or there adds up as well. Penny wise, pound foolish. I'd rather have them skimp on the bullpen, if need be, as it seems to be easier to mine 'nuggets' there. Next year, K-Rod will (barring another arby fiasco) be off the books. Take what Greinke is making now and what K-Rod will be making and combine it, that's probably going to be a starting point after Cain's deal.

[reillymcshane]

I'm torn on Greinke. Briggs has some excellent points. It's tough to tie up so much in one pitcher.

 

But, I fall on the side of making the signing.

 

The reason is that there's virtually no way we can develop an elite pitcher for at least three years. And what we have - Bradley, Jungmann, Peralta, Thornburg - are no guarantees to be top of the rotation guys. They have potential, but there are so many things that could sidetrack any of them. And even if they work out well, Peralta is probably not due until 2013. Bradley and Jungmann in 2014 or 15. And to expect them to be great to start is asking a lot.

 

Therefore, I think you go with Greinke if you can get him. I don't want to do a five year deal, but it's probably the minimum length we can do to retain him.

 

Adding Zack solidifies the top of the rotation for the next few years (with Yo). It requires those young guys to emerge starting next year - because, we won't have a lot of money to fill other positions.

 

It likely means the following:

 

- Hart won't be resigned after 2013

- Marcum is gone after 2012

- Wolf's option isn't picked up next year

- Gomez is gone, unless he resigns for cheap

- Loe is likely gone

- K-Rod is gone

- Kottaras is potentially gone

- Morgan could go if we think we have solid replacements in Aoki and Schafer

- You'd have to rely on at least one of Peralta or Fiers to go into the rotation in 2013. Maybe both.

- You'd have to count on several young players to step up and fill roles, guys like Schafer, Green, Maldanado, etc.

 

It's not perfect, but it would work. I think the exceptional pitchers are so tough to find, and I don't see any in our system at this time.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Honestly, I think all of those things you listed will happen whether Greinke signs or not. The only thing I could see is maybe Hart is retained if we end up with Marcum instead of Greinke. Wolf's option would be picked up, but he'd be off the books after 2013 anyway. I think Schafer will take over CF, and Peralta and Fiers will get their shots. I'm not sure how sold they are on Gindl, which is what would determine is Hart is retained or not. Although, I guess Gamel's success would also be a factor. This team will have to rely on young players stepping up no matter what happens. It's what small market teams have to do. A lot of young players will need to step up big time for this team to stay in contention for 2013 and beyond. That's just how it is. Only so many big contracts can be afforded, and Greinke would be the last one.

[Warning Track Power]

It likely means the following:

 

- Hart won't be resigned after 2013

Stinks as I like Hart and think he is undervalued here but I think the core is Braun, Gallardo, Greinke and Weeks/Hart. I'd rather keep Weeks and I think that is the choice. Weeks or Hart.

 

- Marcum is gone after 2012

I like Marcum but not at a 4 year, $10+ million/year deal which is what I think it will cost

 

- Wolf's option isn't picked up next year

With Gallardo and Greinke and still having Narveson, I will be ok with Peralta and possibly Estrada in the back end of the rotation.

 

- Gomez is gone, unless he resigns for cheap

Spare part. Great D. No O. I think Aoki and Schafer will cover us in the OF.

 

- Loe is likely gone

By no means irreplaceable in my eyes. Good pitcher but I think we could replace him tomorrow with Kintzler or McClendon

 

- K-Rod is gone

I think he is gone regardless of Greinke re-signing. $8 million for a setup man is a luxury we can afford in 2012 but not annually.

 

- Kottaras is potentially gone

Maldonado is the backup C of the future anyways. I'd be more concerned if he was the starter.

 

- Morgan could go if we think we have solid replacements in Aoki and Schafer

See Gomez. Cheaper alternatives that could bring close to the same production already on the team or in Triple AAA.

 

I'm on board with this plan if it means Greinke is part of the team moving forward. I'll take my chances with Greinke at $20m/per than having both Wolf and Marcum resigned for $15-$20m/per.

[monty57]

- Hart won't be resigned after 2013

- Marcum is gone after 2012

- Wolf's option isn't picked up next year

- Gomez is gone, unless he resigns for cheap

- Loe is likely gone

- K-Rod is gone

- Kottaras is potentially gone

- Morgan could go if we think we have solid replacements in Aoki and Schafer

- You'd have to rely on at least one of Peralta or Fiers to go into the rotation in 2013. Maybe both.

- You'd have to count on several young players to step up and fill roles, guys like Schafer, Green, Maldanado, etc.

 

...and none of this affects the fact that we will have somewhere over $70MM tied up in five players in 2015 if Greinke is extended. We were supposed to be around a low-$80MM payroll team this year, so even if we get an additional $20MM from the new TV deal and throw in some inflation, we'd only have around $20-some million to pay the remaining 20 players on the roster, which includes several million each to Lucroy, Gamel and Axford. Are we really going to have 17 pre-arby guys on the roster in 2015?

[MJLiverock]

Edit: I deleted the post and moved to the Grienke hires agent conversation.

[TheCrew07]

- Hart won't be resigned after 2013

 

...and none of this affects the fact that we will have somewhere over $70MM tied up in five players in 2015 if Greinke is extended. We were supposed to be around a low-$80MM payroll team this year, so even if we get an additional $20MM from the new TV deal and throw in some inflation, we'd only have around $20-some million to pay the remaining 20 players on the roster, which includes several million each to Lucroy, Gamel and Axford. Are we really going to have 17 pre-arby guys on the roster in 2015?

 

This is the point that people keep glossing over. Sure you can ditch K-Rod, Wolf, and Marcum but you also have contracts already handed out to players that will be escalating. We'll move on without those regardless... I understand that many of us get attached to players but the problem here is that the team is already on the hook for too many largish contracts. It hurts but there is no way we can simply resign or retain every player that we develop who turns out to be valuable.

 

We don't need Greinke to remain competitive anymore than Seattle needed Griffey, or ARod, or Randy Johnson to stay relevant. Every time one of their players walked that was supposed to be the end of the Mariners, but they managed to actually improve from a win/loss perspective after those guys moved on. The only thing the organizations needs to ensure the winning continues is fresh impact talent being cycled into Milwaukee. That's it. We don't need a name player, we don't need veterans, we just need talent. If we can't afford to buy it then we'd better trade for it and develop it, but these short term solutions need to cease as a primary means of upgrading the team. Short term deals have their place, but certainly not every season since 2007 like has been case here in Milwaukee.

 

The problem with all of the trades that have been made and signings that have happened since 2007, which for the most part have been championed by the majority of fans on this site, is that eventually the well runs dry. There aren't enough prospects and there isn't enough money for the Brewers to operate the way they have and sustain it for any significant length of time.

 

The potential situation for 2013 (letting maybe as many as 4 key contributors walk) is exactly where we end up with the payroll situation a couple of posters including Monty have laid out and the fact we essentially traded an entire wave of prospects away. I would rather not break in Fiers, Peralta, and Thornburg all in one season, but if all 3 dominate in the minors this season we just might have to.

 

There's just no such thing as being in "win now" mode every year when you have limited resources, those resources need to be protected and maximized. Every year people seem find different reasons why this is the last year to go for it. When, if ever, is it going to be okay to break in a couple of young players every year like we should have been doing all along? When do stop being "all in" and start looking towards a plan which is sustainable?

 

I wish Melvin would ride off into the sunset as someone mentioned earlier, but I think he's more likely to be extended than he is walking because Mark A doesn't have seem to have much patience and is just as culpable as Melvin is for many of the FA blunders. He's done very good things for the Brewers since his ownership group took over, but he's just as responsible as Melvin is for the state of the organization, and in some cases he may have actually been the catalyst for certain moves.

 

I really wish the Brewers had to open their books like the Packers do. I'd like to know if the Brewers were in the black in '09. '10. and '11 and if there is any way they can possibly be in the black with a $100 million payroll.

[Oldcity]

It hurts but there is no way we can simply resign or retain every player that we develop who turns out to be valuable.

 

We don't need Greinke to remain competitive anymore than Seattle needed Griffey, or ARod, or Randy Johnson to stay relevant. Every time one of their players walked that was supposed to be the end of the Mariners, but they managed to actually improve from a win/loss perspective after those guys moved on. The only thing the organizations needs to ensure the winning continues is fresh impact talent being cycled into Milwaukee. That's it. We don't need a name player, we don't need veterans, we just need talent. If we can't afford to buy it then we'd better trade for it and develop it, but these short term solutions need to cease as a primary means of upgrading the team. Short term deals have their place, but certainly not every season since 2007 like has been case here in Milwaukee.

 

Then the Brewers need to trade Greinke right now, if that's how you're looking at it. Otherwise, where are you going to get the talent you're talking about? They sure don't have a Greinke-level talent in the minors.

 

If the Brewers move on from K-Rod, Morgan, Hart, Marcum, Wolf next year, that is a significant amount of money. Those are all solid players for sure, but they also appear to be replaceable by cost effective players in the Brewers' system: Gindl, Schafer, Peralta, Fiers, Kintzler, Thornburg, whomever. And they'll probably sign a free agent or two and a modest, shorter-term deal.

 

The one deal that screws everything up is Ramirez, but they should still be able to stay competitive. Guys like K-Rod, Morgan, Wolf, even Marcum and Hart are replaceable. Guys like Greinke are not, at least not without more resources (money or high level prospects as trade bait) that the Brewers do not have.

 

Excuse the analogy, but it makes me think of the fantasy baseball auction draft I had recently. Many teams were so concerned at the beginning with not overspending on players that all of a sudden toward the end of the draft, teams realized they had all this money but not the talent to spend it on. Mediocre players were then going for as much as the high level players from earlier in the draft. Don't you think those teams wished they could re-draft and spend more on the elite players?

 

Elite starting pitchers have value that is extremely difficult to replace.

 

Also... is there any way we can merge this thread with the Greinke one? I feel like they are essentially the same conversation at this point.