Matt Cain signs extension - 6 years / $127.5 million

[reillymcshane]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/giants-to-extend-matt-cain.html

 

$20 million a year for six years. Option for $21 million or a $7.5 million buyout.

 

I'm sure Greinke is taking note of things.

 

EDIT: Edited the years and value

[Warning Track Power]

Well, like I said in the Greinke thread, Cain is worth more than Greinke. He's been the better pitcher by far in my opinion. However, I doubt Greinke will come in at anything less than 5 years $100 million now.

[Glennron]

Well, that's far from encouraging.

[reillymcshane]

Gotta give Cain his due. The guy is consistent. Delivers the goods year after year.

 

He probably is more valuable than Greinke, but Zach has that 2009 season to tease everyone about how amazing he can be.

 

I'm thinking Greinke is looking at 5 years and $100 million.

[owbc]

This is an extension, so Cain is signed for 6/$127.5 guaranteed, with a player option to make it 7 years/$141 million. Largest ever deal for a RH pitcher.

[RockCoCougars]

Personally, I think Greinke is a tad better than Cain. Take Cain out of that ballpark and that division, and he doesn't post the same numbers. No matter what, this does not bode well for the Brewers/Greinke situation as Greinke now should be the number one arm on the market next winter.

[Oldcity]

Greinke has been better than Cain every year except last season. Would have likely been the same last year if not for Greinke's injury at the start of the year.

[Warning Track Power]

Respectfully disagree Old City.

 

Greinke had by far the best season of both of their careers in 2009, but Cain has been the better overall pitcher when you look at the numbers. Cain is a year younger, has almost a half run lower ERA over his career, lower WHIP. I don't think Cain is necessarily substantially better, but I do think he is the better and more consistent pitcher.

[Oldcity]

I posted this in the other Greinke thread, but it's worth another look after this contract.

 

Greinke WAR

2008: 4.9

2009: 9.3

2010: 5.1

2011: 3.9 (Would have been right around 5 again without the basketball injury)

Total: 23.2

 

Weaver WAR

2008: 3.4

2009: 3.8

2010: 5.8

2011: 5.6

Total: 18.6

 

Verlander WAR

2008: 3.4

2009: 8.3

2010: 6.4

2011: 7.0

Total: 25.1

 

Hernandez WAR

2008: 3.7

2009: 6.8

2010: 6.2

2011: 5.5

Total: 22.2

 

And just for kicks and giggles, here are two more set to reach free agency with Greinke

 

Cole Hamels WAR

2008: 4.4

2009: 3.6

2010: 3.7

2011: 4.9

Total: 16.6

 

Matt Cain WAR

2008: 3.7

2009: 3.3

2010: 3.7

2011: 5.2

Total: 15.9

[Warning Track Power]

You are only taking into 2008 forward. According Baseball Reference, Greinke's career WAR is 24.4 in 1279.2. Cain's is 25.0 in 1317.1 IP.

 

This apparently shows Greinke is a good comp to Cain but is not significantly better or worse. Given the two choices, I would choose Cain.

[reillymcshane]

Baseball-reference's WAR on Greinke reads:

 

2007: 2.7

2008: 4.2

2009: 9.0 (holy crap!)

2010: 2.3

2011: 1.7

[Oldcity]

I'm sure I used fangraphs when I made that list, which is where the discrepancy comes from. Still Warning Track Power, what's wrong with looking at 2008 and forward? Is either pitcher's performance in pre-2008 seasons all that relevant now?

[Warning Track Power]

Not necessarily wrong, but it isn't taking the whole picture into account. Additionally, Zack has had one other worldly season (2009) which accounts for a substantial part of his WAR. Cain had a higher WAR than Greinke in 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011. 2008 was about a push as well with Greinke at 4.2 and Cain at 4.0.

 

Like I said, it is really arguing the details as they are both fantastic, elite pitchers. Greinke probably has the higher upside, while Cain is more consistent. If this were dating, Greinke is the 10 with some baggage whereas Cain is the 8 girl next door type.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow. I think this is ultimately bad news for the Brewers, but I guess we just have to wait & see.

[Oldcity]

 

Like I said, it is really arguing the details as they are both fantastic, elite pitchers. Greinke probably has the higher upside, while Cain is more consistent. If this were dating, Greinke is the 10 with some baggage whereas Cain is the 8 girl next door type.

Awesome

[umphrey]

There is a big difference in their playoff success which will probably play a big role here

[TooLiveBrew]

 

Like I said, it is really arguing the details as they are both fantastic, elite pitchers. Greinke probably has the higher upside, while Cain is more consistent. If this were dating, Greinke is the 10 with some baggage whereas Cain is the 8 girl next door type.

Awesome

I thought so too, nicely done WTP. I look forward to more of your player valuations as the season goes on.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I believe that Cain is ranked in the top 20 from 2008-present (NL, +100 IP) in terms of runs prevented. Greinke was ranked #40 (I believe?) in 2011 alone.

[TooLiveBrew]

And he was dealing with an injury, which hugely affected his production. From July on, his ERA was well below 3.

[3and2Fastball]

When comparing Cain & Greinke it is very tough to calculate (for me at least) how much defense and ballpark have aided Cain in that comparison.

 

Greinke has the higher upside, I believe that sincerely.

 

I do think the best chance the Brewers will have to sign Greinke is right now, because Greinke could be poised to have a fantastic season in 2012

[thebruce44]

Not necessarily wrong, but it isn't taking the whole picture into account. Additionally, Zack has had one other worldly season (2009) which accounts for a substantial part of his WAR. Cain had a higher WAR than Greinke in 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011. 2008 was about a push as well with Greinke at 4.2 and Cain at 4.0.

 

Like I said, it is really arguing the details as they are both fantastic, elite pitchers. Greinke probably has the higher upside, while Cain is more consistent. If this were dating, Greinke is the 10 with some baggage whereas Cain is the 8 girl next door type.

 

What if Greinke is a different pitcher now than before 2008? I know you aren't supposed to just throw out data, but as is typical with Zack, he seems to be the exception to almost every rule.

[Ennder]

Greinke is the better pitcher, Cain has had better results. Just depends on which thing you go for. Cain has played in one of the better pitcher parks in baseball, in the weakest hitting division in baseball and with pretty decent defenses behind him. Greinke pitched most of his games in the AL and all of them with one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him.

[MVP2110]

Frankly, I would probably be willing to give Zack the same contract. If your willing to give him 5/100 I would be willing to do the extra 2.5 mil a year rather than losing him

[PrinceEatMeat]

Frankly, I would probably be willing to give Zack the same contract. If your willing to give him 5/100 I would be willing to do the extra 2.5 mil a year rather than losing him

 

That's a good point. Might as well go all the way if they are willing to shell out that amount of cash. They might be able to get Greinke for slightly less than Cain though, but the price has definitely gone up.

[Ennder]

The price will go through the roof if they don't do the deal now though. When he comes out with Cy Young stats again this year he is going to get a huge paycheck for it.