The Reds(!) $200 Million Man: Joey Votto (Latest: Phillips to get extension)

[Baldkin]

Votto's deal was justifiable. He's been 1B to Pujols the last 3 years.

 

Soriano, on the otherhand, was a guy with a career .320 OBP who had a monster year in a contract year.

 

They may regret it, but they won't regret it nearly as much as the Phillies will regret Ryan Howard.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Rosenthal commented on MLB.tv that he was surprised by the deal because the Reds don't draw like the Brewers and they don't have a very good TV deal so he isn't sure the Reds can support a competitive team to put around him. I'm guessing those two have had some sort of disagreement on this or something, seems odd that they both decided to reference the Brewers in opposite ways~.

 

If the Reds GM proves that he is unable to field a competitive team around Votto then this is a bad move for the Reds. I like this move for the Reds very much for the next 5 seasons, but after that it starts to go down hill. It will be interesting to follow the Reds attendance over the next few seasons. I believe that the Reds TV contract is up in 2016 and they will be able to negotiate a new one between now and then, so it will be interesting to see how much that increases.

[Ennder]

Rosenthal commented on MLB.tv that he was surprised by the deal because the Reds don't draw like the Brewers and they don't have a very good TV deal so he isn't sure the Reds can support a competitive team to put around him. I'm guessing those two have had some sort of disagreement on this or something, seems odd that they both decided to reference the Brewers in opposite ways~.

 

If the Reds GM proves that he is unable to field a competitive team around Votto then this is a bad move for the Reds. I like this move for the Reds very much for the next 5 seasons, but after that it starts to go down hill. It will be interesting to follow the Reds attendance over the next few seasons. I believe that the Reds TV contract is up in 2016 and they will be able to negotiate a new one between now and then, so it will be interesting to see how much that increases.

 

i agree but on the other hand the Reds have one of the weakest draws in baseball so itis really easy to see how signing Vott could screw them long term.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Ennder,

 

I agree. I could see them regretting this move for the second half of his contract and when were talking a 12 year deal, that's a lot of years. However, this was a risk that the Reds were willing to take. The Reds already have Bruce, Leake, Chapman, Latos, Stubbs, and Marshall under contract through 2015 (or later). They have a few notable prospects in their system that should be up either this year or next or could become trade chips. In my opinion, the Reds are going for it and they think they will be relevant the next 5 seasons, which I think is their window of opportunity, because that is what their core is signed till.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It really doesn't surprise me that the Reds jumped to sign Votto to this deal. I honestly believe that this and the Cain signing were triggered by the ownership change for the Dodgers. Both teams felt they needed to do something or they'd lose their stars. I think they may regret the contract down the road though. The have more money than the Brewers, but this will still cost them a few key players in the coming years. Starting with Brandon Phillips.

[Ennder]

All this for a player who plays a position that is by far the easiest to replace in terms of offense(the top 10 1B in baseball have OPS above .830, the top 7 all above .900. 3 years ago the top 14 had OPS above .900)

 

This used to be true but there are a ton of really crappy 1B in the league right now. It is nowhere near as strong a position as it used to be. I don't think it is easy to replace 1B at all in a league where Kotchman and LaHaire are starting.

[brettac1]

Yeah all you need to do is play fantasy baseball to find out how quick the talent pool runs dry at 1B.

[monty57]

In my opinion, the Reds are going for it and they think they will be relevant the next 5 seasons, which I think is their window of opportunity, because that is what their core is signed till.

 

That has to be it. Teams seem to do these deals knowing they'll regret them in the final years, but they feel the move needs to be made now in order to win in their "window." The Cubs signed Soriano and re-worked Zambrano & Ramirez's deals (opt out clauses) in order to try to win before the sale, and they're now working through all those bad contracts. The Phillies signed Howard when they knew they had a World Series caliber team, and they're now in their final year(s) of being good as their core is all in their early-to-mid thirties (except Hamels who has Boras as an agent and will probably walk).

 

The Reds probably see blood. The Brewers will lose a lot of talent after this season, and may need to rebuild. The Cardinals main threats (Carpenter, Wainwright, Berkman, Beltran) are all old. The Cubs are at least a few years away from being good and the Astros are leaving. With some good young pitchers and position players, the Reds probably feel they can win the division a few times over the next five years or so, and have a shot at the World Series.

 

Does it seem weird that the Reds and Pirates could be set up to be the teams to beat in the division after this season? It's still a horrifically bad deal, but at least PrinceFielderx1's point makes some sense of it.

[Ennder]

Baseball as a whole is getting smarter about defense and that includes 1B. Good but not great hitters with horrible defense just aren't finding jobs like they used to. Elite hitters with horrible defense like Fielder are still getting over payed though.

[pretendastronaut]

Jon Heyman calls it 'one of the nuttiest deals ever'.

 

Here's what one competing GM had to say about the deal that really is for $225 million in new money, as USA Today first reported: "The Reds look like they have no plan. They always say they have no money for deals. Then they spend $30 million on Aroldis Chapman. They say they have no money. And now this.''

 

This is one of the crazier seeming contracts in baseball history, a deal that keeps Votto in the National League where there's no DH into his 40s. Votto is one of the best offensive players in baseball, but he isn't Albert Pujols (no one is), he very likely wanted to stay, and frankly, he's a bad bet to play great baseball at age 40 (everyone is). You have to wonder: Couldn't an eight-year extension to make it 10 years under contract have gotten it done? That was the logical new deal for Votto, not this. And logic went out the window here.

 

Link

[RobDeer 45]

I have not had a chance to listen to the local media down here in cinci but am really curious what they think. I just really can't see a scenario where this works well for them.

[Invader3K]

I really do wonder if they simply panicked, thinking it would look bad for them to lose Votto to the Dodgers (or some other big market team). They're probably worried about declining attendance, so they wanted to "send a message" to the fans that they are trying to stay competitive. Just seems like one of those contracts that short term should be great, but long term could be a giant boat anchor.

[monty57]

I really do wonder if they simply panicked, thinking it would look bad for them to lose Votto to the Dodgers (or some other big market team). They're probably worried about declining attendance, so they wanted to "send a message" to the fans that they are trying to stay competitive. Just seems like one of those contracts that short term should be great, but long term could be a giant boat anchor.

 

I've heard that same reasoning used as to why we need to extend Greinke

[alwz4gbp]

I can't believe the Reds just did that and gave him a full-no trade clause on top of it.

 

 

I could not agree more. If you wanna give somebody that contract, you have to somehow find a way out of it. This will sink the Reds. Not complaining, just saying. haha. No way is that "dude" worth that contract. Good luck Cincy. Bye bye Dusty.

[Outlander]

According to Jim Bowden on Twitter, the Reds have offered Brandon Phillips a six year $72.5 million contract. Not sure where all of this money is coming from and if it is wise to give a 31 year old second baseman a contract like that.

[Warning Track Power]

I keep hearing about all these extensions (Votto, Niese, Kinsler, Cain, Phillips, Santana) and keep waiting for Greinke's

[pretendastronaut]

Phillips, more or less, confirming a deal is happening;

 

Twitter Link

[markedman5]

JIM BOWDEN ‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm

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FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details Deal now confirmed....Phillips and Reds 6-years $72.5m congrats both Reds and Phillips

[Oldcity]

Unreal

[TheCrew07]

There's a rumor that the new MLB national contract will be a huge revenue boost for all of the teams, in addition to their local media contract. If true, the Brewers might be okay at 100 mil as another 10-15 million in revenue per team per year would be nice. The obvious problem of course is that salary inflation will eat that up so the Brewers wouldn't have more buying power in the future, but it would make the payroll situation sustainable in the near term.

[reillymcshane]

There's a rumor that the new MLB national contract will be a huge revenue boost for all of the teams, in addition to their local media contract. If true, the Brewers might be okay at 100 mil as another 10-15 million in revenue per team per year would be nice. The obvious problem of course is that salary inflation will eat that up so the Brewers wouldn't have more buying power in the future, but it would make the payroll situation sustainable in the near term.

I heard this same thing as well. That teams are starting to spend these future earnings.

[Oldcity]

Even still. The Reds really love a nucleus that has them right around .500 over the past three years. Phillips will be good for a few more years, but for about have of this contract it will look pretty bad. They'll be paying an insane amount for Phillips and Votto into their late 30s.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Wow, they are committing a boat load of money to just two players. I'm more leery of the Phillips signing due to his age by the end of the deal. I don't care if it backfires on them obviously, which it probably will. They better hope some of their young players develop. One thing they'll have a tough time doing is keeping a good pitching staff together. Mainly because of where salaries for pitchers are going.

[monty57]

There's a rumor that the new MLB national contract will be a huge revenue boost for all of the teams, in addition to their local media contract. If true, the Brewers might be okay at 100 mil as another 10-15 million in revenue per team per year would be nice. The obvious problem of course is that salary inflation will eat that up so the Brewers wouldn't have more buying power in the future, but it would make the payroll situation sustainable in the near term.

 

That's a really quick lesson in how inflation works. Institute more money into a system without changing the underlying supply and demand, and the prices go up across the board. Do you want to give Ben Bernanke a call?

 

This does make sense, and hopefully will help the Brewers get through the next few years without having to make moves they don't want to make. I still hope more and more of the TV revenue starts to be done nationally, as that would be the best way MLB could even payroll for everyone without having to institute a salary cap that no one will ever agree on.

 

As far as both of these deals go for the Reds, they're certainly trying to win over the next few years, as they will be anchored by big contracts to old players by the time these deals are up. If you wouldn't trade for Soriano or Helton, then you probably should think twice about signing a contract which will pay a guy huge money into their late 30's or early 40's. One thing that seems constant in baseball is that teams like to disregard the future in order to open a window to win when they think they have the chance.

[GamelToe]

Wow, the Weeks deal is looking better and better with these Phillips and Kinsler signings.