The Reds(!) $200 Million Man: Joey Votto (Latest: Phillips to get extension)

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/reds-to-extend-joey-votto.html

 

Um...what?!?! Cincinnati can afford a $200 million dollar contract?

[chuckiehacks]

Other than the bad Deadspin press, Dan Lozano has had a pretty nice off-season. Pujols and Votto, that's some serious commission.

[RockCoCougars]

Good for them. It's nice to see a small market keep their stars. At the same time, I'm not sure if Votto is worth that kind of contract.

[Baldkin]

I would've taken him over the other two 200M contracts signed this off season.

[fondybrewfan]

$200 Million is still a lot for guy not yet in free agency. It is one thing to get a Fielder contract while having a couple teams bidding; its quite another to get a $200 Million contract with no competition. The Reds almost certainly overpaid; definitely in comparison to Braun's most recent extension. Not the most comparable of situations but it is worth looking at. This better be a 10 year extension to justify that kind of financial investment

[Warning Track Power]

Interesting tweet from Heyman:

 

Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS

Votto told me earlier he felt reds were not the same as #brewers in terms of market and could afford it. I guess they can.

 

That is a fascinating statement from Votto. I never really considered Cincinnati a passionate market. They only drew 2,060,550 (average of 25,439) in 2010 when they won the NL Central. That ranked 12th of the 16 NL teams. I wonder what exactly he meant by that statement.

[Ennder]

The Brewers could have afforded it for Votto, he is just a better player than Fielder especially for an NL team.

[monty57]

Interesting tweet from Heyman:

 

Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS

Votto told me earlier he felt reds were not the same as #brewers in terms of market and could afford it. I guess they can.

 

That is a fascinating statement from Votto. I never really considered Cincinnati a passionate market. They only drew 2,060,550 (average of 25,439) in 2010 when they won the NL Central. That ranked 12th of the 16 NL teams. I wonder what exactly he meant by that statement.

 

I wouldn't read too much into it. My guess is Heyman said something like "there's no way you'll stay in Cincy... look at Fielder." To which Votto responded something like "I don't play in Milwaukee, I play in Cincinnati."

 

As far as the deal, if it is indeed a $200MM deal, and we assume that any player is worth that, I'd say it's likely that Votto will put up better numbers nine years from now than Fielder or Pujols. Of course nine years is a long time, and anything can happen in that amount of time, which is why there is immense risk to any team to sign a deal like that. It doesn't break my heart to hear Cub fans wishing Soriano's contract would end, and it won't break my heart a few years down the road hearing Reds, Angels and Tigers fans wishing the Votto, Pujols and Fielder contracts would end. I do hope Brewers fans aren't praying for Braun's contract to end five or six years from now.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Well, the Reds can kiss all of the other top free agents they'll have in the next few years goodbye.

[RockCoCougars]

Interesting tweet from Heyman:

 

Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS

Votto told me earlier he felt reds were not the same as #brewers in terms of market and could afford it. I guess they can.

 

That is a fascinating statement from Votto. I never really considered Cincinnati a passionate market. They only drew 2,060,550 (average of 25,439) in 2010 when they won the NL Central. That ranked 12th of the 16 NL teams. I wonder what exactly he meant by that statement.

 

A few years back, I seem to remember reading that Cincy and Milwaukee were neck and neck for 'smallest media market' in baseball. I still think that it's foolish to give Votto $200 million for his over 30 years when he is two years from free agency though.

[bullox]

 

Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS

Votto told me earlier he felt reds were not the same as #brewers in terms of market and could afford it. I guess they can.

 

This had me a little curious, so I looked for some numbers.

 

TV Market Size 2011

 

Milwaukee 34th, Cincinnati 35th.

 

Radio Market Rankings

 

Cincinnati 29th, Milwaukee 38th.

 

Other population rank sites have both cities very close to their radio market rankings.

 

While this doesn't tell the full story about money available to the team to spend on players, it does show that Cincinnati isn't really all that much bigger than Milwaukee as far as market is concerned. I don't think the ability to throw $200M at someone was based as much on market size as it was on future obligations and projections. The Brewers locked up several of their core players leaving Prince with no option but to get more money elsewhere.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's owed $26.5 million over the next 2 seasons. I suppose if the extension is 8 years, $175 million, they can say it's a $200 million deal in total. That's still a home team discount. Fielder and Boras never really negotiated with the Brewers. The Brewers could have offered Fielder $200 million two years ago and Boras would have turned them down as his thinking is that if the Brewers could offer that, someone else could offer more. These are totally different scenarios. Keep in mind to that Votto's had some issues not unlike Greinke, and he was comfortable in Cincy so they were in a much better situation.

[reillymcshane]

I'm happy for Votto and the Reds. I think it's good for baseball that smaller markets can keep their superstars.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

In terms of MSA's...Cincy is #27, Milwaukee is #39.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas

[Baldkin]

All that really matters is TV money, and we all know the Brewers are dead last in that sense.

 

I'd imagine the Reds grew a pretty loyal fanbase in the 70's with the Big Red Machine.

 

Also, looks like their MSA is 40% bigger. Wow. Why can't they sell tickets?

[Ennder]

Rosenthal commented on MLB.tv that he was surprised by the deal because the Reds don't draw like the Brewers and they don't have a very good TV deal so he isn't sure the Reds can support a competitive team to put around him. I'm guessing those two have had some sort of disagreement on this or something, seems odd that they both decided to reference the Brewers in opposite ways~.

[Funketown]

The extension is for 10 years, $225 million, for a total of 12 years and $251.5 million.

 

Votto has been phenomenal over the last few years, but I'm just not sure these types of deals are ever worth it for clubs like Cincinnati. If he isn't an elite player over the next ten years, that franchise might be in serious trouble.

[craigharmann]

As long as Dusty is the manager, they will need to have quality bats. God knows they won't have quality pitching!

[MVP2110]

The extension is for 10 years, $225 million, for a total of 12 years and $251.5 million.

 

Votto has been phenomenal over the last few years, but I'm just not sure these types of deals are ever worth it for clubs like Cincinnati. If he isn't an elite player over the next ten years, that franchise might be in serious trouble.

 

Are you sure? I thought i saw reading that it was an 8 year extension for a total of 10 years. could be wrong though. Either way I think this is good short term but could cripple them long term

[monty57]

The extension is for 10 years, $225 million, for a total of 12 years and $251.5 million.

 

Votto has been phenomenal over the last few years, but I'm just not sure these types of deals are ever worth it for clubs like Cincinnati. If he isn't an elite player over the next ten years, that franchise might be in serious trouble.

 

Are you sure? I thought i saw reading that it was an 8 year extension for a total of 10 years. could be wrong though. Either way I think this is good short term but could cripple them long term

 

According to MLBtraderumors, he's right, it's 12 years en toto. The Reds will pay $20-something million to Votto until he's 40. There's no way this contract ends well.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I can't believe the Reds just did that and gave him a full-no trade clause on top of it.

[brains and braun]

Maybe in 12 years 20M/per is what Craig Counsell Jr. makes?

[Warning Track Power]

I still can't believe this signing...

 

HOWEVER, given the three 1B who got over $200 million this offseason, I would say that the Reds will get the most bang for the buck. I think Votto already is better than Pujols and Fielder. No one scares me more in the NL currently than Joey Votto.

[homer]

Jeez are they going to regret this in 7 years.

[berniebrewer4life]

Votto's projected WAR over the length of this contract:

 

2012: +6 WAR

2013: +6 WAR

2014: +5.5 WAR

2015: +5.0 WAR

2016: +4.5 WAR

2017: +4.0 WAR

2018: +3.5 WAR

2019: +2.8 WAR

2020: +2.1 WAR

2021: +1.4 WAR

2022: +0.7 WAR

2023: +0.0 WAR

 

That's over 90 million in the 2020-2023 seasons, with a total WAR of 4.2. YIKES

 

All this for a player who plays a position that is by far the easiest to replace in terms of offense(the top 10 1B in baseball have OPS above .830, the top 7 all above .900. 3 years ago the top 14 had OPS above .900).

 

I just don't see this as a good deal for the reds. If you could make it an 6 year deal(at the same yearly avg salary), it looks great. Heck, even 8 would be ok. But this deal is at least 4 years too long. I have a feeling the reds will regret this the same way the cubs now regret the Soriano signing. Just not smart, especially when you still had him under control for the next two years(which you would expect would have netted them a discount of some sort, apparently not).