Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[Oldcity]

If Greinke goes, I'd rather let Marcum and Wolf go as well and blow the whole thing up. Could get a bunch of picks plus whatever you get in trades for guys like Weeks and Hart. Shouldn't take too long to get back in the picture. Mark A most likely won't sign off on that, though.

[Warning Track Power]

If Greinke goes, I'd rather let Marcum and Wolf go as well and blow the whole thing up. Could get a bunch of picks plus whatever you get in trades for guys like Weeks and Hart. Shouldn't take too long to get back in the picture. Mark A most likely won't sign off on that, though.

 

Nor would I. I don't think we need to go into full rebuild mode. While I would prefer Greinke/Estrada over Marcum/Wolf I don't think that the Brewers would necessarily need to deal off Weeks and Hart. That team could still compete and if it caught a lot of the breaks could still be an 85-92 win team. I just believe that the dual ace potential of Gallardo and Greinke is worth the financial risks. Now if the team is making the financial decision of who they can afford to pay, Gallardo or Greinke, then I am 100% behind Gallardo.

[RightFieldCoder]

We would only get picks if we offered the player 11-13M in arbitration and the player declines. I'm sure Wolf (and maybe Marcum) would accept arby and not net us any picks.

[Invader3K]

I could see if it was a reasonable option, but 10 mil? Forget that..

 

For a pitcher of Wolf's caliber, that actually is fairly reasonable these days. Not saying I think the Brewers should automatically pick up Wolf's option, but the price isn't out of line with the market.

[RockCoCougars]

The only way that Marcum would accept arbitration would be either if his arm falls off between now and December and/or he pitches like he did last post season for the rest of this season. I think that people will be surprised what he gets in free agency if he has a year anywhere close to what he did last season. That said, I hope the Brewers don't bite and give him a four year deal.

 

If Wolf stays healthy and fairly effective, my guess is that the odds of him being a Brewer next season are higher than both Greinke and Marcum.

[Nottso]

I just don't get the Wolf hatred/dislike (as far as performance goes). He's pitched very well for the team at what has turned out to be very reasonable dollars relatively speaking. I think he's maybe a little full of himself and is the root cause of the situation with Lucroy, but performance-wise I'm perfectly happy. Looking back, I'd make that deal 10 times out of 10.

[brwrsfan]

The comments from Greinke don't give us much hope do they. I wonder if that Cain deal really put a wrench in things or if they really were far apart the whole time or if it's all just a smoke screen. Greinke called it a "longshot from the beginning". That doesn't even sound remotely good.

[chadomac]

Two years ago I wouldn't have said they'd pick up Wolf's option... but I'm pretty sure they will if he pitches anything close to his 2011 stats this season. He's been worth every dollar of his contract... not sure why some people still think he's "Suppan 2.0"

[Raw Biz]

It's been pointed out but Wolf would actually cost 8.5 mil since he has a buyout of 1.5 mil. I'd rather have him at that than sign some other crappy 5th starter for 5 mil. I also wouldn't want both of Peralta/Fiers in the rotation. Depth is a good thing.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It's been pointed out but Wolf would actually cost 8.5 mil since he has a buyout of 1.5 mil. I'd rather have him at that than sign some other crappy 5th starter for 5 mil. I also wouldn't want both of Peralta/Fiers in the rotation. Depth is a good thing.

 

Exactly. The plan has to be to keep Marcum and Wolf if Greinke isn't re-signed. If Greinke comes back Peralta and Fiers would both likely be in the rotation, which is somewhat scary. I think it'd be more likely that we'd go out and sign some crappy #5 as you said. $8.5 million for Wolf is a bargain in my opinion. He's a quality pitcher. As I said before, I'd be fine with a rotation of Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Peralta/Fiers, Narveson next season if Greinke is gone.

[monty57]

Can anyone think of some recent comps for Marcum? (i.e. starters of his caliber who have signed FA deals)

 

The FA trend this offseason seemed to be to pay over-the-top prices for elite talent while mid-tier talent couldn't find a job and ended up settling for less than expected, but I can't think of any FA starting pitchers off the top of my head who would correlate with Marcum.

 

I wouldn't do a four year deal with Marcum, but a reasonably priced 2-3 year deal (maybe with options) could easily be better long-term for the Brewers than signing Greinke to a very expensive long-term deal. I like the concept of Gallardo/Greinke at the top of the rotation, but hate the thought of $20+MM going to the guy on the bench with his shoulder in a sling while we pick up half our team off the scrap heap because we can't afford to pay for Major League talent to surround all of our high-priced vets.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Greinke goes, I'd rather let Marcum and Wolf go as well and blow the whole thing up. Could get a bunch of picks plus whatever you get in trades for guys like Weeks and Hart. Shouldn't take too long to get back in the picture. Mark A most likely won't sign off on that, though.

I agree about letting Greinke (if it's inevitable) & Marcum go. I'd keep Wolf around, just since it's only a one-year deal. I'm not sure I'd look to deal Weeks or Hart, but I'd certainly listen if other teams wanted to offer. There's really not much to "blow up", since you'd still obviously keep Braun, Yo, Luc, and all the salary-controlled dudes.

 

The Brewers have a chance this offseason to walk away from the strategy of spending big money on veterans, and I really, really hope they do walk away from it. I'm not sure they will as long as Melvin is GM, but I definitely hope so.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If Greinke goes, I'd rather let Marcum and Wolf go as well and blow the whole thing up. Could get a bunch of picks plus whatever you get in trades for guys like Weeks and Hart. Shouldn't take too long to get back in the picture. Mark A most likely won't sign off on that, though.

I agree about letting Greinke (if it's inevitable) & Marcum go. I'd keep Wolf around, just since it's only a one-year deal. I'm not sure I'd look to deal Weeks or Hart, but I'd certainly listen if other teams wanted to offer. There's really not much to "blow up", since you'd still obviously keep Braun, Yo, Luc, and all the salary-controlled dudes.

 

The Brewers have a chance this offseason to walk away from the strategy of spending big money on veterans, and I really, really hope they do walk away from it. I'm not sure they will as long as Melvin is GM, but I definitely hope so.

 

I really think the spending recently has more to do with Mark A than it does with Melvin. Attanasio really wants to win, so he's willing to shell out the cash to do it. Not that that's the only way to build a winner though. I highly doubt Melvin and Attanasio would keep Greinke if the price got too high. They went 5 years $100 million on CC, but I really doubt they'll even go that high for Greinke. It's just not a smart move. They both know that. Now keeping Marcum on a short term deal isn't as bad. That's conceivable, and I would do it. If it goes 4 years or above though without options, I'd walk away from that too.

[3and2Fastball]

The more I read about Wily Peralta (and I admit I wasn't initially that high on him) the more I think he could be a 3.80 ERA 114 ERA+ 1.200 WHIP guy, replacing Greinke pretty easily at $450,000 a season

[TooLiveBrew]

I really think the spending recently has more to do with Mark A than it does with Melvin. Attanasio really wants to win, so he's willing to shell out the cash to do it. Not that that's the only way to build a winner though. I highly doubt Melvin and Attanasio would keep Greinke if the price got too high. They went 5 years $100 million on CC, but I really doubt they'll even go that high for Greinke. It's just not a smart move. They both know that. Now keeping Marcum on a short term deal isn't as bad. That's conceivable, and I would do it. If it goes 4 years or above though without options, I'd walk away from that too.

I think it's probably a good point to not focus blame exclusively on Melvin when it comes to the expensive FA signings. I think you're spot-on in looking at Mark A. as well (if not even moreso).

[logan82]

I really think the spending recently has more to do with Mark A than it does with Melvin. Attanasio really wants to win, so he's willing to shell out the cash to do it. Not that that's the only way to build a winner though. I highly doubt Melvin and Attanasio would keep Greinke if the price got too high. They went 5 years $100 million on CC, but I really doubt they'll even go that high for Greinke. It's just not a smart move. They both know that. Now keeping Marcum on a short term deal isn't as bad. That's conceivable, and I would do it. If it goes 4 years or above though without options, I'd walk away from that too.

I think it's probably a good point to not focus blame exclusively on Melvin when it comes to the expensive FA signings. I think you're spot-on in looking at Mark A. as well (if not even moreso).

The Suppan deal and how it went down comes immediately to mind.

[3and2Fastball]

Thornburg, Bradley & Peralta are off to fabulous starts this season. Jungmann is looking sharp, too....

 

Losing Greinke & Marcum does not mean the Brewers will be a 4th place team for the foreseeable future.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Thornburg, Bradley & Peralta are off to fabulous starts this season. Jungmann is looking sharp, too....

 

Losing Greinke & Marcum does not mean the Brewers will be a 4th place team for the foreseeable future.

 

Agreed. It would just be nice to be able to retain at least Marcum for a few years. Just to hold off until those guys are ready. But if not, you're right that it shouldn't be far off before our pitching rebounds.

[reillymcshane]

I still think it all comes down to Zack wondering how good this team is going to be over the next few years. He likes Milwaukee and organization. That's a big plus. But winning is crucial to Zack. He doesn't want to get stuck in rebuilding mode. We need the team to have a good year. We need Gamel to do well. We need to stay relatively healthy. We need some prospects to step forward.

 

If that happens - if we contend - and it looks like we'll contend for at least a few more years - then you probably have a decent chance with Zack.

 

I don't think contending this year will be strictly enough. Because even if you win this year, we are set to lose Wolf and Marcum next year. Then Hart after 2013. Greinke is probably going to want to feel as if the players that will replace those guys are going to keep us in contention. He's not a stupid guy. He knows what payroll is at, and what it's likely to be at in the next few years - and what the team will be able to do with regard to resigning key players or other free agents.

 

A lot of it means just playing out the season. See how things go. In the end, we probably benefit more by waiting and not overreacting.

[MJLiverock]

Young guys typically can't throw 200+ innings or even close during their first year in the big leagues. Losing guys like Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with youngsters will leave a lot of innings to cover and put strain on a bullpen.

[NievesNoNO]

The more I read about Wily Peralta (and I admit I wasn't initially that high on him) the more I think he could be a 3.80 ERA 114 ERA+ 1.200 WHIP guy, replacing Greinke pretty easily at $450,000 a season

 

I'm not disagreeing but I'd love to have him supplementing Greinke and Gallardo if it's possible. Good pitching has been so difficult to come by; I think the Brewers owe it to themselves to offer Greinke a fair contract, with a small overpay in dollar value if it's necessary. I wouldn't overpay in years and there couldn't be a no trade clause with any number of teams. Offer 4-5 years at a similar price to what's been given out to similar pitchers in recent weeks and see what happens.

[markedman5]

Payroll is already at 100 million....overpaying for Greinke is not the answer.

 

If he doesn't want to stay at reasonable contract it's Melvin's job to find somebody else.

 

Maybe Garza can be had?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Young guys typically can't throw 200+ innings or even close during their first year in the big leagues. Losing guys like Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with youngsters will leave a lot of innings to cover and put strain on a bullpen.

 

That's why you ease them in as I said before, and not go with all of them at once. Next year try to keep Marcum and Wolf if Greinke is gone, and go with one young pitcher. Then the year after when Wolf's gone add another. Then a few years late when Marcum leaves add another. And there's also the possibility of someone outperforming Narveson at some point.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Payroll is already at 100 million....overpaying for Greinke is not the answer.

 

If he doesn't want to stay at reasonable contract it's Melvin's job to find somebody else.

 

Maybe Garza can be had?

 

This year's payroll doesn't matter. The payroll committed money for next season won't be as high, with guys like K-Rod, Marcum, and possibly Wolf coming off the books. They could fit in Greinke if they wanted to. Is that advisable though? I'd say no as you said. I'd rather not keep Greinke if his price is outrageous either. I personally think it would be pretty stupid, but that doesn't mean they won't financially be able to handle it for the first few years. It's in the later years where it would be a killer. If the price is too high, signing Marcum and keeping Wolf for a year is a far better solution. It's not necessary to go after someone like Garza when they have those two as in-house options. Maybe it's not as great in the short-term, but it would be a fine alternative and leave us a lot better off in the long-term.

[Eye Black]

The abruptness of the talks seemingly ending makes me think that they may be apart on years in addition to money. It seems possible Greinke's agent wants him signed for more than 5 years, and the Brewers are in no position to offer that length of a deal to a pitcher. Even 5 years is obviously a risk for the Brewers.