Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[fondybrewfan]

I really want Grienke back, not so much that I just love the guy but that Melvin is going to be forced to overpay for Marcum, Wolf, or a different FA pitcher. I suppose picking up Wolf's option wouldn't be the end of the world but I would hate to see him as the #2. I like Peralta, Thornburg, Bradley, Fiers, and Jungmann just as much as everyone else but you can't have 2-3 rookies in the starting rotation in 2013 and expect to compete.

[RockCoCougars]

Three years ago, Soup was the #2 starter. This year, there is probably the talent level for an 85-90 win team. Remove Greinke and replace him with a Suppan (even at the back end of the rotation) and you are looking at a team that will top out in the high 70 wins.

[Roderick]

Yes they will be fine of course, but the right move to make if he leaves is to trade Hart and Weeks and reload/rebuild/whatever you want to call it. It shouldn't take several years if they hit on those trades.

If Grienke leaves and the Brewers look to "rebuild" it would only take a year, so I don't think they trade Weeks. Hart may go, but how much do they get for him in the last year of contract? They spend 2013 finding out which young pitchers will be good and then for 2014 they would have money (Grienke, Marcum, Wolf, Krod gone less ARam increases) to spend to plug the holes and are back to competing for a playoff spot.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm not sure if everyone here understands the concept of WAR. Greinke is a very good pitcher but he is a career 3.80 ERA guy (wouldn't be surprised if he has a great year this year).

 

Last year Greinke was a 1.7 WAR guy. Even in his Cy Young year he was 9 WAR guy. Losing Greinke does not take us from 90 wins to 77 wins or whatever. It would likely take us from 90 wins to 87 wins or so....

 

The difference between Greinke and Marco Estrada last season was about 1.3 Wins (Using Baseball Reference dot Com's WAR stats)

[3and2Fastball]

Another way to look at it is this: if Greinke puts up a Cy Young caliber season this year, then we are (barring any major injuries) likely a 95 win team and Greinke will be an 8 WAR guy (wins above replacement). If we lost Greinke and replaced him with Marco Estrada (I have a feeling Melvin would go out and trade for or sign someone bertter, but just for the sake of example, replacing Greinke with Estrada) we are then an 85-88 win team....

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sure if everyone here understands the concept of WAR. Greinke is a very good pitcher but he is a career 3.80 ERA guy (wouldn't be surprised if he has a great year this year).

 

Last year Greinke was a 1.7 WAR guy. Even in his Cy Young year he was 9 WAR guy. Losing Greinke does not take us from 90 wins to 77 wins or whatever. It would likely take us from 90 wins to 87 wins or so....

 

The difference between Greinke and Marco Estrada last season was about 1.3 Wins (Using Baseball Reference dot Com's WAR stats)

 

1.7 seems pretty low to me, even considering that Greinke missed a month. He had a few bad starts that really dinged his overall stats. Also, it's far from a lock to assume that the Brewers would get the 2011 version of Estrada as a replacement for Greinke. I know that he exceeded my expectations for last year big time. You also have to consider the fact that both Wolf and Marcum's spots are in flux as well.

 

At any rate losing any wins off a potential 90 win team is huge. Very few 85 win teams make the playoffs, but I'd guess with the extra wild card that almost every 90 win team will moving forward.

[thebruce44]

Bye Zack and bye competing.

 

I don't believe a thing DM says to the media. For all we know, he is just angling for an extra million a year in savings with this comment.

[Warning Track Power]

I just don't see the point here when I think about it. If the Brewers can't re-sign Greinke, I am guessing Marcum will be resigned to a Suppan-esque type deal. 4 years $42 million-ish or something that averages $10-11ish million per year. Additionally, I see them exercising Wolf's option at $10 million for 2013. That is $20ish million locked into those two pitchers for 2013 or approximately what Greinke will likely get, give or take a few million.

 

Given this scenario, I am guessing Yo #1, Marcum #2, Wolf #3, Narveson #5 and breaking Peralta in at #4. That's not a terrible rotation but that Marcum deal would have the chance to go south. I guess I would much rather have the two aces in Gallardo and Greinke, Narveson at #3, Peralta at #4 and Estrada at #5.

 

Your choices essentially break down to Greinke/Estrada vs. Marcum/Wolf for approximately the same cost.

[Fear The Chorizo]

After Cain signed that large extension, what's the need to rush giving Greinke an extension right now? The market's essentially been set assuming Greinke stays healthy, so why not let more of this season play out to see if Greinke in fact is deserving of that pricetag longterm? A small-mid market team shouldn't be overly willing to throw 100+ million dollar contracts to pitchers, especially when they have the guy under contract for this regular season.

 

I'm sure the two sides have gotten to the point where they know each other's current contract proposals. As this season plays out, both sides will be able to determine whether the Brewers & Greinke can be a longterm fit.

[rluzinski]

Greinke's 2012 Zips projection is basically 200 IP @ 3.0 ERA. Assuming a free available starting pitcher puts up around a 5.3 ERA, that's 51 less earned runs that Greinke gives up. Using the rule of thumb of 10 runs = 1 win, that's 5 wins. If Melvin replaced Greinke with an average starting pitcer, we might be talking about around a 3 win drop.

 

I have no problem paying Greinke $20-$22 mil in 2013. He's easily worth that. The problem is the whole long term contract and health. I'd give him an extension of 2/$44 or maybe 3/$66 but that's it. Otherwise, you assume a even a 10% chance of a substantial injury and he's just not worth it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes they will be fine of course, but the right move to make if he leaves is to trade Hart and Weeks and reload/rebuild/whatever you want to call it. It shouldn't take several years if they hit on those trades.

 

Of course, we're probably getting ahead of ourselves, because there's still hope that they can sign him.

Oh I completely agree that the best move, if Greinke walks, is to look to deal Rickie & Corey. I almost included that in my post just prior to yours, but since Melvin would never do it I decided to leave that out.

 

And beyond the WAR/regular season arguments being made, one main reason I think it'd be important to lock up Greinke is the shortened postseason rotations. Surviving the attrition of a 162-game season is one thing, but once you get to the postseason, if you only have one ace-caliber pitcher, the chances of you advancing deep or at all are not good. Having a 1-2 punch of Yo & Greinke is even more important once you get to the playoffs. Now is it worth spending north of $100M on Greinke to keep that 1-2? I guess that's the real question.

[Warning Track Power]

Having a 1-2 punch of Yo & Greinke is even more important once you get to the playoffs. Now is it worth spending north of $100M on Greinke to keep that 1-2? I guess that's the real question.

 

Yes is the answer. Give me Braun, Yo, Greinke, Weeks, Lucroy, Gamel as the core and I will gladly fill in around them with whatever cheap talent the farm system can produce. Most of the posters on this forum seem to believe we have a cheap replacements at CF Scahfer, 3B Green, RF Gindl to piece around Braun, Rickie, Lucroy and Gamel. Additionally, with SP Peralta, Jungmann, Bradley, Thornburg, to add to Yo, Greinke and Narveson we have some cheap pieces to fill in our gaps.

 

I truly believe this is the best way the Brewers can remain competitive in the future.

[3and2Fastball]

Surviving the attrition of a 162-game season is one thing, but once you get to the postseason, if you only have one ace-caliber pitcher, the chances of you advancing deep or at all are not good. Having a 1-2 punch of Yo & Greinke is even more important once you get to the playoffs. Now is it worth spending north of $100M on Greinke to keep that 1-2? I guess that's the real question.

 

Very very good point and you are absolutely correct. A team really needs 2 aces to advance in the playoffs, at least usually

[TheCrew07]

I agree that you need impact pitching to advance in the playoffs, that's one of the key points I've argued in the past.

 

I don't think losing Greinke necessarily means we resign Marcum or pick-up Wolf's option. I said previously that I'd rather not break in 3 prospects to the bigs in a single season but that's the way Melvin lined it up. I'm not sure losing Greinke would be the death blow people anticipate it to be either and while it's impossible to project how young players will do in their first full season, I feel pretty good about Fiers and Thornburg (if he's an option). Peralta would instill great confidence in me as well if he repeats last season's success in AAA this year.

 

Peralta and Thornburg are vastly more talented than Marcum and Wolf, the initial results may not be better, but they have top of the rotation stuff. Fiers has just located so efficiently the couple of times I've gotten to see him pitch that I feel good about him as well even though he doesn't have stuff that will blow you away.

 

Of course this all hinges on the prospects remaining healthy and continuing their progression towards MLB. There's a pretty good chance that one of the 3 will see MLB action this season as well, I'd be shocked if the Brewer's starting pitching remains as healthy as it did last season. It's nice to have legitimate options again in both AA and AAA.

[Invader3K]

I'd give him an extension of 2/$44 or maybe 3/$66 but that's it.

 

Of course Casey Close would laugh at either of those offers and hang up on Melvin, though.

[logan82]

Zack Greinke said he would wait until Thursday to address news that his agent and the Brewers had tabled talks about a contract extension for the right-hander. Greinke is scheduled to start Thursday's series finale against the Cubs.

[TooLiveBrew]

That seems pretty standard from Greinke. Doesn't want to be interviewed unless it's on a day he's pitched.

[RockCoCougars]

As a long time Brewer fan, I have it in my blood to be skeptical regarding minor league pitching. For whatever reason, this franchise has been very snakebitten over the years in regards to drafting/signing and developing young pitchers. More specifically, they have turned out 2 above average MLB starting pitchers in the last 20 years. Even going back further than that the list is very short.

 

My point here is that I would be happy if one of the prospect pitchers panned out. It follows that I see resigning Greinke as a high priority.

[homer]

More specifically, they have turned out 2 above average MLB starting pitchers in the last 20 years. Even going back further than that the list is very short. .

 

Sheets, Gallardo, maybe Higuera? I can't think of any other homegrown guys that had decent careers. And Higuera hardly had a career. Guess you could argue the same for Sheets.

[RockCoCougars]

Here is my list.

 

Gallardo '07

Sheets '01

Eldred '91

Navarro '89

Bosio '86

Wegman '85

Higuera '85

Haas '78

Slaton '71

 

Off the top of my head, that is all that I can come up with as far as the organization developing starting pitchers who sustained more than a year or two of above average pitching. Though I may be missing a few, nine pitchers in 42 years is not very good, and a few of these guys are a stretch. There are some guys I thought of who I'd put at about MLB average, but there weren't many of those guys either (D'Amico, Karl, Woodard, Sorenson, Augustine to name a few).

 

Bottom line, I know that past occurrences don't correlate with future events, but still. For whatever reason, this organization has been absolutely horrible at developing pitching.

[Funketown]

RockCo, I never realized how bad it has been until I looked it up after you mentioned it. Since joining the NL in 1998, the Brewers have had three (3!) pitchers post >10 fWAR with the team: Sheets (31), Gallardo (12.9), and Davis (11.2). Given the six years of team control, that's really only two drafted players to be average/average+ for a significant period of time in recent years. I had almost forgotten just how horrendous this franchise had been before the Prince/Rickie/Hart/JJ class came up, probably because I only started seriously following the team in 2004 (the 42-35 start, 67-94 end team).

 

(I was surprised to note that it seems to be quite rare for pitchers to put up 10+ WAR with one team over that time period, Astros had 7, Cubs 7, Cardinals 4, Pirates 3, and Reds just 2, and clicking around it looks like having 5-6 is pretty typical)

[bylo tesi me]

I choose to be in denial and believe Doug Melvin only released a statement that contract talks have been shelved because Casey close and Doug are finalizing the details and don't want the media bothering them about it over the next few weeks.

[RockCoCougars]

I would be interested to see a study on how well organizations have done developing starting pitching (for themselves) since the amateur draft was instituted in '65(?). No matter what metric is used, I have to imagine that the Brewers would be toward the bottom, if not at the bottom of the list.

[Warning Track Power]

I choose to be in denial and believe Doug Melvin only released a statement that contract talks have been shelved because Casey close and Doug are finalizing the details and don't want the media bothering them about it over the next few weeks.

 

This got me thinking. Why would they release a statement like this? Here is what we know...

 

-Greinke hired an agent earlier than most anticipated

-Melvin stated last week that he was going to talk to Close on Thursday, then again Monday

-Tuesday says contract talks have been tabled and could be open again later

 

None of these pieces fit in a nice neat box in my opinion so I am apt to believe SOMETHING is happening here. A nice neat box would consist of Greinke not hiring an agent. He stated in Spring Training as seeing no need for one yet all of a sudden hires one. There also would have been no leak of any discussions between Melvin and Greinke and then Melvin and Close.

 

Why would Greinke hire Close if things weren't down the road to an extension? Similarly, why would Melvin discuss meeting with Close and then say talks have been tabled? The only rational thing in my mind is that Melvin and Greinke don't want to constantly be asked about the ongoing negotiation and Greinke wants to keep questions from the media to the field. Wishful thinking maybe, but I don't believe Attanasio and Melvin were oblivious to what Greinke would be looking for in an extension and this is a ploy to allow negotiations to continue without constant questions from the media.

[mothershipconnection]

I don't think losing Greinke necessarily means we resign Marcum or pick-up Wolf's option.

 

If he's healthy and any good this year, I don't see them declining Wolf's option unless they just plain run out of money due to large extensions for other players. He'll essentially cost $8.5MM for one year - which is pretty decent for a 200IP/sub 4.00 ERA pitcher. If one of Greinke or Marcum are gone, which seems very likely, I think you've gotta pick up Wolf's option to maintain a competent rotation while they wait for the next in line behind Peralta.