Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[Madtown343]

I hope you positive thinkers are right. I too still feel like Zach will sign at 5 years just under 100m

[Oldcity]

Right now off the top of my head I can think of 3 pitchers pushing 30 that are in upper echelon and haven't had a major injury, Sabathia, Greinke, and Cain. Will any of those guys make it to 40 like Smoltz before suffering their first catastrophic injury? I have no idea, and neither do you, the question is how much risk are you willing to take on to find out? Is it worth having to eat a year or 2 of a contract, at 20 mil per, even 1 year is almost twice the dead money as the entire Lucroy extension and there were people that didn't like that contract. 2 years is more dead money than the entire Hall debacle...

 

You do a good job of illustrating the large risk involved. Unfortunately, the Brewers have a limited number of ways of acquiring elite talent: drafting, trading, or extending a contract before free agency. The latter is the most expensive way, but it's still much cheaper than bidding for elite talent in free agency, which is not an option for them.

 

If they want to remain a good team, they need a significant talent to replace Greinke. They won't find that in free agency, and they don't have the chips to trade that they did when they traded for Greinke. That leaves two options: re-sign Greinke, or take your shot by signing/trading for a few lesser players. The first option definitely more likely to work, so much so that the Brewers will likely spend more than they'd ever want to. Would you rather have Zack Greinke, or Shawn Marcum+Joe Blanton?

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm encouraged by the report from Jon Heyman that Greinke doesn't wanna leave Milwaukee. He'll still get paid, but I'm hoping that it's not for more than 5 year $100 million. That's about the limit for me.

[monty57]

I think that we have to get out of the small market mentality here.

 

And that, my friends is how people / businesses go bankrupt. Forget about financial responsibility... we want it, so we're going to get it.

 

We traded our best prospect for a decent pitcher with two years left. We then traded the rest of our farm for a great pitcher with two years left. We've extended everyone who would extend to keep our window open, and then we signed a back-end-loaded deal for an aging slugger at 3B who should help us win this year. We've seriously limited our financial flexibilty going forward in order to win last year and this yera, and eventually that comes back to bite you.

 

The Dodger rumors that they want to go big after some big free agents in the near future led to Cain and Votto signing monster extensions, and raised the price tag on Greinke. It is still possible we extend Greinke, but I doubt it's possible we extend him and hold on to our other "core" players. If we extend Greinke for over $20MM a year, in a few years he & Braun will make around $40MM a year between them!! We would need to trade off most of the rest of our higher priced players and basically make Greinke and Braun (and maybe Yo) our core and build around that. Since Ramirez will be basically untradeable after this season, I think this would mean that at least Hart and Weeks would be gone quickly and maybe the talent they would bring back (if we'd trade for young guys) would help us get our payroll in order.

[GormanHarvey]

Just saw this on Rotoworld.com...

 

According to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, Zack Greinke has hired Casey Close as his agent.

Greinke downplayed on Monday whether he was close to choosing an agent, but he was obviously pretty far along in the process. The 28-year-old right-hander is due to hit free agency five days after the 2012 World Series and figures to land a contract in the neighborhood of Matt Cain's new five-year, $112.5 million deal with the Giants.

Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter

[Madtown343]

I would be fine with moving Hart if it means resigning Grienke. I have hope that gindl will continue to grow into a decent RF option.

[Crew2323]

This really makes you wonder if an extension is close. I certainly don't want to get my hopes up, but I'm pretty sure Greinke said that he'd sign an agent when/if a deal was close. Perhaps someone can help me on that. I'm on the side that this is a positive development for the Brewers.

[adambr2]

Wish I could find the link, but I swear I read a quote from Greinke a few weeks ago or a month ago where he said he wouldn't hire an agent until there was an actual contract he was about to sign

 

Not saying this isn't true, but if so it doesn't make much sense to me. Do all the negotiating yourself and then just bring an agent in for the part where he needs to cough up a commission?

 

Seems like he could hire a lawyer for a few hundred bucks an hour to look over the contract and save a few million dollars.

[jmeks23]

I wouldn't even think Cain would be worth 125M and now that the Giants have thrown that money at him unnecessarily, Greinke is going to be overpriced as well. I personally don't think Greinke is worth 100+ M even if he is a great pitcher. There's far too much risk for any pitcher long term, and 100M deals rarely work out for the team.

[Warning Track Power]

https://twitter.com/#!/Haudricourt/status/187239876092112896

 

Pure speculation:

Haudricourt seems to think it means negotiations are advancing if Greinke has indeed hired Close.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think TH's speculation is pretty reasonable there. Things could get pretty interesting this week.

[3and2Fastball]

The Dodger rumors that they want to go big after some big free agents in the near future led to Cain and Votto signing monster extensions...

 

Hopefully we can sign Greinke and then the Dodgers can overpay for Hamels in the off-season

 

Lincecum after the 2013 season will be the big fish to land, if he stays healthy

[PrinceFielderx1]

I really thought things could get interesting pretty quickly and here we go. If I'm the Brewers my number 1 goal is to get Greinke extended by opening day.

[MJLiverock]

I'd rather be paying someone like Grienke $20MM per than locking up 2 $10MM per year talent guys like Wolf, Suppan, Marcum (looking forward), Lohse, Westbrook, especially knowing there will be additional young cost controlled pitching coming. Letting the elite talent guys go in favor of multiple average guys seems a good way to get to average.

[monty57]

I'd rather be paying someone like Grienke $20MM per than locking up 2 $10MM per year talent guys like Wolf, Suppan, Marcum (looking forward), Lohse, Westbrook, especially knowing there will be additional young cost controlled pitching coming. Letting the elite talent guys go in favor of multiple average guys seems a good way to get to average.

 

I agree, but you're assuming that we'll have $20MM+ to spend. As WTP mentioned earlier, here is the obligation for 2015:

 

2015: $50.50m

Braun: $12m

Weeks: $11.5m (option)

Ramirez: $14m (option)

Gallardo: $13m (option)

 

That doesn't take into account Lucroy for a few million, Axford well into arby, etc. After 2015, Braun starts getting really expensive, and he & Greinke alone would cost around $40MM/year.

 

I think that a Greinke extension means that at least one of the guys in the list above will have to be gone. Ramirez will be vitrually untradeable, so my guess is that a Greinke extension means that Weeks will be traded either after this season or next, and we will see Green and/or Gennett manning 2B. If we also figure that Morgan and Gomez will be replaced with Schafer, Hart with Gindl, Wolf and Marcum with some of our minor leaguers, etc, then it is possible that we could afford a Greinke extension. We'd just have to hope that all of our "B/C" level minor leaguers pan out into everyday major leaguers.

[thebruce44]

We've had around $45 mil committed to our top 4 players for the last few years and should be getting a yearly influx of $20 mil from the new tv deal. Its not impossible, but we will need to introduce new cost controlled players over the next 3 years.

[MJLiverock]

Monty, I agree it gets expensive but team will have to decide where to spend the money - -locking in a few elite level players or keeping more average guys around.

 

Someone else summed it up well in the Cain thread (reillymcshane). The team doesn't have any elite pitchers on the immediate horizon nor do they have a lot of young talent left to trade for pitching. I think it is easier to fill in for letting guys like Hart walk or trade a Weeks or Axford than it is to find a top of the line starter. I don't want to go back to the days of the rotation of Sheets at the top and 2 or 3 old vets getting paid $20MM to be servicable at best. If we don't want to rely onthe B/C level hitters then we end up relying on the C/D level starting pitchers. I'd run the gamble on the hitters given the organization's track record with developing offense and free agent market vagaries vs. pitching.

 

I also liked an earlier comment that the team had to know Grienke's contract was looming when they signed Ramirez. If the Ramirez signing keeps them from signing Grienke then the front office made a huge mistake in my mind.

[logan82]

I'd rather be paying someone like Grienke $20MM per than locking up 2 $10MM per year talent guys like Wolf, Suppan, Marcum (looking forward), Lohse, Westbrook, especially knowing there will be additional young cost controlled pitching coming. Letting the elite talent guys go in favor of multiple average guys seems a good way to get to average.

 

I agree, but you're assuming that we'll have $20MM+ to spend. As WTP mentioned earlier, here is the obligation for 2015:

 

2015: $50.50m

Braun: $12m

Weeks: $11.5m (option)

Ramirez: $14m (option)

Gallardo: $13m (option)

Braun will be paid $14.5m in 2015($12m base plus $2.5m bonus money) and he is never paid more than $15m in any given year because of deferred money.

 

16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, $18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031)

[RockCoCougars]

I think that we have to get out of the small market mentality here.

 

And that, my friends is how people / businesses go bankrupt. Forget about financial responsibility... we want it, so we're going to get it.

 

We traded our best prospect for a decent pitcher with two years left. We then traded the rest of our farm for a great pitcher with two years left. We've extended everyone who would extend to keep our window open, and then we signed a back-end-loaded deal for an aging slugger at 3B who should help us win this year. We've seriously limited our financial flexibilty going forward in order to win last year and this yera, and eventually that comes back to bite you.

 

The Dodger rumors that they want to go big after some big free agents in the near future led to Cain and Votto signing monster extensions, and raised the price tag on Greinke. It is still possible we extend Greinke, but I doubt it's possible we extend him and hold on to our other "core" players. If we extend Greinke for over $20MM a year, in a few years he & Braun will make around $40MM a year between them!! We would need to trade off most of the rest of our higher priced players and basically make Greinke and Braun (and maybe Yo) our core and build around that. Since Ramirez will be basically untradeable after this season, I think this would mean that at least Hart and Weeks would be gone quickly and maybe the talent they would bring back (if we'd trade for young guys) would help us get our payroll in order.

 

There are two sides to this coin. I'm sure this was the line of thinking that Sal Bando had for 1993. 'If we give Molitor $3 million per, he and Yount will be making over 1/4 of our payroll. With that money, we could go out and get Dickie Thon, Tom Brunansky AND Billy Doran. After all, Molitor is just a DH, and we have replaced his production with Kevin Reimer.'

 

We have differing views here. In my opinion, you cannot win without proven, star quality players. To retain these types of players, you will eventually have to pay bucu dollars. As far as the core, they are all locked in for two more years at the least. Why not make a run at it while the window is still open? It's obviously a risk, but I don't buy into the notion that the Brewers can be perpetual contenders by always making moves with an eye three years down the road.

[monty57]

But adding Greinke would mean over $70MM to our top 5 in 2015, and after that $40MM to our top 2!!

 

Plus, we've had young, cheap talent helping out the MLB roster, but now all of that talent has become expensive, and we haven't put much faith in young guys recently, so we don't have too many league-minimum guys filling in around the core talent. Essentially, we'll have Yo, Greinke and three "non-top" prospects for the rotation, Braun and two "non-top" prospects in the OF, 35-year-old Ramirez, 33-year-old Weeks and "B talent" Lucroy and Gamel and "F talent" SS prospects with a mid-30's closer and journeyman relievers. I like Schafer, Gindl, Peralta, etc, but we don't have any Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, etc coming up through the system.

 

Without extending Greinke, we are going to be in a mess next year, but our recent spending habits have made extending Greinke pretty difficult, and our fanbase now seems to demand "name players" at every position. We shouldn't have signed Ramirez to the back-end-loaded deal, but we did, and now we're stuck in a financial mess. I hope I'm wrong, and I hope they have a lot more money than I think. Melvin said his payroll this year was supposed to be between $80-90MM, and we're over $100MM, and now we're looking at tying $70+MM into five players a few years down the road without "superstar prospects" to play for league minimum.

 

My wife has told me to stop thinking about this and just enjoy the season, so I think I will. Go Brewers, win the World Series, and I'll try not to worry about the financial purgatory you'll be in soon.

[monty57]

Monty, I agree it gets expensive but team will have to decide where to spend the money - -locking in a few elite level players or keeping more average guys around.

 

Someone else summed it up well in the Cain thread (reillymcshane). The team doesn't have any elite pitchers on the immediate horizon nor do they have a lot of young talent left to trade for pitching. I think it is easier to fill in for letting guys like Hart walk or trade a Weeks or Axford than it is to find a top of the line starter. I don't want to go back to the days of the rotation of Sheets at the top and 2 or 3 old vets getting paid $20MM to be servicable at best. If we don't want to rely onthe B/C level hitters then we end up relying on the C/D level starting pitchers. I'd run the gamble on the hitters given the organization's track record with developing offense and free agent market vagaries vs. pitching.

 

I also liked an earlier comment that the team had to know Grienke's contract was looming when they signed Ramirez. If the Ramirez signing keeps them from signing Grienke then the front office made a huge mistake in my mind.

 

If I had to bet right now, I'd say Greinke will be extended, Hart will be traded after this season and Weeks will be traded after either this season or next. Morgan and Gomez will either be traded or not offered arby after this season. Schafer will play CF, Gindl will play RF and Green and/or Gennett will play 2B. If Gamel has a good year, we'll extend him to a team-friendly deal buying out 1-2 FA seasons, and from one of the Hart/Weeks trades we'll finally find a good, young SS and maybe another young option for our rotation.

 

My faith lies in the hope that Melvin will remember that veterans can be traded before reaching free agency, and we don't have to block every prospect with an expensive FA. I'm generally optimistic, but my mind is tuned to looking at financial situations. The Brewers should be good this year, and we can make it through the next few years, but Melvin will have to shift gears and pull his best George Costanza "do the opposite" when he sees future Aramis Ramirez / Taylor Green situations.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd rather be paying someone like Grienke $20MM per than locking up 2 $10MM per year talent guys like Wolf, Suppan, Marcum (looking forward), Lohse, Westbrook, especially knowing there will be additional young cost controlled pitching coming. Letting the elite talent guys go in favor of multiple average guys seems a good way to get to average.

 

Agreed. The 2009 and 2010 Brewers are a good example of that. Lots of home runs, no playoffs.

[Warning Track Power]

Monty, I agree it gets expensive but team will have to decide where to spend the money - -locking in a few elite level players or keeping more average guys around.

 

Someone else summed it up well in the Cain thread (reillymcshane). The team doesn't have any elite pitchers on the immediate horizon nor do they have a lot of young talent left to trade for pitching. I think it is easier to fill in for letting guys like Hart walk or trade a Weeks or Axford than it is to find a top of the line starter. I don't want to go back to the days of the rotation of Sheets at the top and 2 or 3 old vets getting paid $20MM to be servicable at best. If we don't want to rely onthe B/C level hitters then we end up relying on the C/D level starting pitchers. I'd run the gamble on the hitters given the organization's track record with developing offense and free agent market vagaries vs. pitching.

 

I also liked an earlier comment that the team had to know Grienke's contract was looming when they signed Ramirez. If the Ramirez signing keeps them from signing Grienke then the front office made a huge mistake in my mind.

 

If I had to bet right now, I'd say Greinke will be extended, Hart will be traded after this season and Weeks will be traded after either this season or next. Morgan and Gomez will either be traded or not offered arby after this season. Schafer will play CF, Gindl will play RF and Green and/or Gennett will play 2B. If Gamel has a good year, we'll extend him to a team-friendly deal buying out 1-2 FA seasons, and from one of the Hart/Weeks trades we'll finally find a good, young SS and maybe another young option for our rotation.

 

My faith lies in the hope that Melvin will remember that veterans can be traded before reaching free agency, and we don't have to block every prospect with an expensive FA. I'm generally optimistic, but my mind is tuned to looking at financial situations. The Brewers should be good this year, and we can make it through the next few years, but Melvin will have to shift gears and pull his best George Costanza "do the opposite" when he sees future Aramis Ramirez / Taylor Green situations.

 

Monty...I hear you about all these trades. However, Weeks or Hart will be kept. We need to keep in mind that Greinke wants to win as well. A lineup with Braun and then a bunch of B-C status prospects will not win consistently in my opinion. Keeping a 3-4 combo together like Braun and Weeks will at least ensure some form of balance. Plugging in Gamel and Lucroy, who I believe are above average, will help ensure the lineup is decent. What will really determine how good the Brewers will be will be based almost entirely on Schafer, Gindl and Green and how they are able to perform as everyday players in the Majors when they get the opportunity.

[adamds22]

If the goal here is to win a WS, you need elite pitching at least out of your top two. When it comes down to the big games pitching trumps all. We have the chance to lock up our top two starters for awhile, when it comes to a big playoff series we won't get anywhere with Gallardo, B Pitcher, B Pitcher. No matter how good our offense is I don't see us getting very far if we even make the playoffs with Gallardo being our only true ace. Now you throw in Gallardo, Greinke, B pitcher. Our chances to advance in the playoffs go up quite a bit.

 

Like someone said above, I think it is a lot easier to fill in your gaps with your farm system (especially our farm system) with position players, I agree that I think one or more of the Ramirez, Hart, Weeks combo is probably gone next season (likely Hart) but we have a lot of OF depth right now. Granted not a lot of big name prospects but I'd rather take my chances that a Gindl, Schafer, Green have the ability to produce closer to who they are replacing over a Jungmann, Bradley, Peralta, Fiers being even close to what Greinke is capable of doing.

[MJLiverock]

If the team is around $90MM today, with only 3% inflation that gets you very close to $100MM in 2015. Assume another $20MM from TV in you post and the team should be able to run a payroll of $110MM to $120MM in 2015.

 

Braun at $12MM

Grienke at $20MM

Weeks at $12MM

Gallardo at $13MM

Lucroy at $3MM

Ramirez buyout $4MM

Narveson 3rd yr. arb $5MM

Gamel $4MM

Total $73MM for the core of the team leaving $37MM to $47MM. I don't know that Axford will be getting any big money from the Brewers in 2015, he may well be traded off by then rather than commit big money to a closer. Green or someone else will be brought in to play 3rd rather than pay Ramirez $14MM if he has deteriorated substantially. Schafer may be in CF by then. A couple of the young pre Arby pitchers to fill in the 4 & 5 spots in the rotation. SS and RF are unknowns at this point and bullpen filler. I don't think it becomes impossible in this scenario. The top 7 (I'll add in another $6MM guy on top of the $4MM paid to Ramirez to get a $10MM vet somewhere at 3B, SS, RF) would be around $80MM or 675 to 72% of payroll. The 2011 Brewers paid about 70% of payroll to their top 7 guys.

 

The Brewers are going to have to take some gambles, a team with limited resources can't just play it safe all the time and expect to reach the top, they may remain "competitive" but won't win anything if they always take a conservative approach. I think I'd rather gamble on locking up the very best talent I could and then hoping my filler guys only have to achieve averageness vs. getting a bunch of high floor average guys and hope a couple achieve greatness.