Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[Baldkin]

Every time one of those articles gets printed, it makes me think they aren't talking to Zack about an extension.

[Hitman_Hart]

Greinke has the potential to be a very dominant NL pitcher. With his baseball smarts he must understand the value of pitching in a league where the #9 is a pitcher versus having to face lineups stacked with hitters. He lived that in KC. I still think that his anxiety issues would preclude him from pitching in New York, Boston, or LA. Unless that has been cleared up, I guess I can't really pretend to know his emotional state.

 

Milwaukee is the best option for him short of, say, Atlanta. I have to believe that he knows this.

 

Does this mean he'll take a discount? Depends on what other moves Milwaukee makes, but having Braun and now Lucroy locked up long term it might convince him to stay and leave money on the table to improve the rest of the team a' la Tom Brady's contracts with New England.

[monty57]

$100 mil for 5 years is a fair deal for the Brewers.

 

The article I linked above mentions 5 years / $80MM as a bogey. I'd guess something a little north of that.

 

Physically he's been so been healthy that the odds are beginning to stack heavily against him making it through this next contract without a significant arm injury. With pitching it's not of a matter of "if" a pitcher is going to get hurt, it's "when".

 

Crew07, I know you do a lot of reading on the subject. Are there studies specifically for players who have made it to a certain age without injury? This seems to be a case where a specific subset makes sense, even if the subset may not seem large enough to be statistically significant. In other words, taking a subset of hard-throwing pitchers with a certain frame / throwing motion who have made it to age 28 without injury and following them to see if they ended up with significant injury seems to make more sense than saying something like "x% of all pitchers have an injury by the time they reach 31."

[TooLiveBrew]

Greinke has the potential to be a very dominant NL pitcher.

After his first two months last regular season, he was -- to the tune of a 2.80 ERA. Semi-coincidentally, everything after June was right past the 60 IP mark, which was used as a benchmark in an interview by Jimmy Nelson last season as the point where he said he typically feels like he's really at full form. ST usually accounts for about 25 IP or so, so I think we're going to see the Greinke we thought we were getting in 2011 all season long this year.

[Warning Track Power]

Greinke has the potential to be a very dominant NL pitcher. With his baseball smarts he must understand the value of pitching in a league where the #9 is a pitcher versus having to face lineups stacked with hitters. He lived that in KC. I still think that his anxiety issues would preclude him from pitching in New York, Boston, or LA. Unless that has been cleared up, I guess I can't really pretend to know his emotional state.

 

I think we as Brewers fans overstate this immensely because it serves our argument and makes Greinke more likely to stay in Milwaukee. While none of us can really speak to his state of mind, I still have to believe that there are two things that will matter to Greinke that will determine where he signs:

 

1. Money

2. Likelihood of winning

 

I am of the opinion that there is an agreed to number between the Brewers and Greinke at this very moment and that Greinke is simply waiting to determine how competitive the Brewers will be sans Fielder. Additionally, I think Greinke is waiting to determine how successful the Brewers will be able to be this season when they are paying Braun, Weeks, Gallardo and himself all salaries north of $10 million. While Greinke will have to take a leap of faith there, I can see him waiting to determine if the Brewers can or will remain competitive given those four players will eat almost half of the payroll.

 

Honestly, there is no pressure to win in LA right now. Even when the Dodgers were in their heyday, the writers in the local papers and on local radio are nowhere near as vicious as New York, Boston or Chicago. In fact they aren't vicious at all. Given the Dodgers new ownership, this is my most likely place for Greinke to land absent an extension with Milwaukee given they will have the money, are in the NL so Greinke can continue to bat and will likely be competitive for the forseeable future given the current economic structure in baseball.

[Hitman_Hart]

Honestly, there is no pressure to win in LA right now. Even when the Dodgers were in their heyday, the writers in the local papers and on local radio are nowhere near as vicious as New York, Boston or Chicago. In fact they aren't vicious at all.

 

I understand precisely what you're saying about the Dodgers, I guess I should have been more clear when specifying which team in LA I was referencing. While the Dodgers don't have a "win now" attitude, the Angels absolutely do, and I can see Arte Moreno going hard after Zack regardless of how the Angels do this year as he continues to turn LA in to Yankees West.

 

This, again, is where I think Milwaukee has an advantage. The National League is far and away more friendly to pitchers, and thus I truly feel that the only real competition for Greinke is going to come from other NL teams.

[Baldkin]

The billionaire owner in Detroit could also do the same thing.

[Hitman_Hart]

Very true. Iilich has made it clear he wants a WS title before he dies, and doesn't care who he sticks with the bill after that.

[fondybrewfan]

Grienke has been crazy good this spring; if he keeps this up during the season it would be very wise to get this extension done sooner rather than later. 2 months of sub 3.0 ERA could increase that contract by a couple million a year I imagine. Let him get to free agency and the Brewers don't have a chance; just like with Fielder.

[Warning Track Power]

Honestly, there is no pressure to win in LA right now. Even when the Dodgers were in their heyday, the writers in the local papers and on local radio are nowhere near as vicious as New York, Boston or Chicago. In fact they aren't vicious at all.

 

I understand precisely what you're saying about the Dodgers, I guess I should have been more clear when specifying which team in LA I was referencing. While the Dodgers don't have a "win now" attitude, the Angels absolutely do, and I can see Arte Moreno going hard after Zack regardless of how the Angels do this year as he continues to turn LA in to Yankees West.

 

This, again, is where I think Milwaukee has an advantage. The National League is far and away more friendly to pitchers, and thus I truly feel that the only real competition for Greinke is going to come from other NL teams.

 

I don't think an AL team has a legit shot at Greinke unless they totally go above and beyond with a contract offer. Greinke wants to hit and this will keep him in the NL. Right now, the teams I see as most likely to land Greinke if the Brewers don't extend are the Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs and Cardinals. Every other team in the NL either is locked into long term deals with pitchers already (Giants, Marlins, Phillies & Nationals), have studs coming (Diamondbacks & Braves) or won't be able to afford him (Reds, Mets, Padres & Pirates).

[PrinceEatMeat]

Reports are that Matt Cain is getting a 5 years $110 million deal from SF before Opening Day. That's bad news for the Brewers. Price for Greinke will only go up after that deal.

[Warning Track Power]

Reports are that Matt Cain is getting a 5 years $110 million deal from SF before Opening Day. That's bad news for the Brewers. Price for Greinke will only go up after that deal.

 

Well that officially depressed me.

 

Greinke isn't worth the same as Cain but if Cain signs this then I think Greinke will get more than this. Supply dwindles, demand and cost goes up. Great...

[Oldcity]

Greinke is better than Cain.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Offer Greinke what we offered CC Sabathia 100-115 million over 5-6 years and go from there.

 

Anybody think Greinke will demand a full no trade clause in his next contract?

[Warning Track Power]

And for what it's worth...

 

Bye Zack. Thanks for being a Brewer. There is no way I see Attanasio giving Grienke $100 million over 5 years.

[Invader3K]

There is no way I see Attanasio giving Grienke $100 million over 5 years.

 

Based on what?

[Warning Track Power]

Based on my opinion. No way "I" see it:

 

The first 3 years of a Greinke $20m per year, 5 year extension

 

2013: $36.25m

Braun: $8.5m

Weeks: $10m

Ramirez: $10m

Gallardo: $7.75m

 

Greinke at $20m puts them at $56.25m locked into 5 players in 2013

 

2014: $48.25m

Braun: $10m

Weeks: $11m

Ramirez: $16m

Gallardo: $11.25m

 

Greinke at $20m puts them at $68.25m locked into 5 players in 2014

 

2015: $50.50m

Braun: $12m

Weeks: $11.5m (option)

Ramirez: $14m (option)

Gallardo: $13m (option)

 

Greinke at $20m puts them at $70.70m locked into 5 players in 2015

 

2015 I think Ramirez will be gone but that only saves $10m, as there is a $4m buyout. Weeks and Yo would likely have their options picked up.

 

Given the Brewers are at the threshold of $100 million already, it would take some significant manuevering to make this work. Look I hope I am wrong but I don't think I am.

[patrickgpe]

i can see it, i am sure the brewers are going to want to keep either marcum or greinke, so the team doesn't give up a ton of top prospects for 1 or 2 NL central championships and a couple of draft picks.

 

they have gallardo locked up for 2 more seasons, and have a 1st baseman on the cheap for a few years when they were used to paying prince a large salary.

 

I think Attanasio is obsessed with the brewers not falling off and the best way to do that is to retain a 2nd ace.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, if Attanasio was willing to shell out the cash for CC, he'll do it for Greinke. 5 years $100 million is very possible.

[TooLiveBrew]

If I'm Greinke, my starting point is the Cain extension -- 5 yrs./$115 or so. Because ZG would likely get at least that much offered to him on the first day of free agency after this season. If he goes to FA, he might be looking at more like $125M.

 

I just hope the Brewers were prepared for this type of price range, & are able to plan accordingly.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Doug Melvin commented on the Matt Cain contract in relation to Greinke,

"There will be an impact, I'm sure," said Melvin. "Any signing impacts other players who haven't signed."

 

Melvin has been dealing directly with Greinke,

 

"I talk with Zack personally," said Melvin. "He hasn't said anything about hiring an agent.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/145838165.html

[TheCrew07]

So would you rather sign a guy who's had injuries because he's "used up his share of injuries, so he's more likely to be healthy?"

 

No what I'm saying is just because someone was healthy to age whatever, doesn't mean he's going to continue to be healthy in the future. Past health is not indicative of future health, but it's certainly better than the alternative. His age 21 and 22 seasons have helped him some with wear and tear because he didn't pitch as much those seasons because of his mental issues, basically nothing as 21 year old. So it's fair to say that his arm is in better shape than the average 28 year phenom who's been in the majors since he was 20, but there is still risk.

 

In some ways yes it is better if a player has something like TJ surgery before he hits FA because the team isn't eating a huge contract for a year or 2 if the worst case scenario happens. Many people just assume health and are willing to take the risk even through there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. For example going into the 2008 season did we expect that to be Sheets' last season in MLB? Did anyone really expect Peavy to get injured and become a shell of his former self? Some guys like Carpenter have made it through a double whammy of shoulder and elbow surgery, most guys just aren't that fortunate, and there's always a slight risk that any injury will be career ending.

 

The entire problem here is that baseball contracts are guaranteed, there's no out. Players will rarely take an injury settlement and retire, look at the Koskie situation (and no that wasn't his first concussion)... if it were football he would have taken an injury settlement and retired, but the Brewers had to pay him to sit at home.

 

Right now off the top of my head I can think of 3 pitchers pushing 30 that are in upper echelon and haven't had a major injury, Sabathia, Greinke, and Cain. Will any of those guys make it to 40 like Smoltz before suffering their first catastrophic injury? I have no idea, and neither do you, the question is how much risk are you willing to take on to find out? Is it worth having to eat a year or 2 of a contract, at 20 mil per, even 1 year is almost twice the dead money as the entire Lucroy extension and there were people that didn't like that contract. 2 years is more dead money than the entire Hall debacle...

 

Injury prevention isn't a skill, it's mostly genetics and mechanics, though good mechanics do not prevent injury because there is nothing ergonomic about throwing a pitch overhand off of a mound. Someone pitching a softball windmill can pitch everyday, the same is not true of a baseball. A very select few pitchers win the genetic lottery, the rest are going to go under the knife at some point.

 

There's plenty of information about the injury nexus available via a simple Google search. Sometimes I think the scope is a bit too broad, like including all players in MLB history when injury treatment and diagnosis was terrible almost through the 70s. However, there is plenty of interesting reading out there if people are so inclined.

[3and2Fastball]

Based on my opinion. No way "I" see it:

Greinke at $20m puts them at $56.25m locked into 5 players in 2013

Greinke at $20m puts them at $68.25m locked into 5 players in 2014

Greinke at $20m puts them at $70.70m locked into 5 players in 2015

 

2015 I think Ramirez will be gone but that only saves $10m, as there is a $4m buyout. Weeks and Yo would likely have their options picked up.

 

Given the Brewers are at the threshold of $100 million already, it would take some significant manuevering to make this work. Look I hope I am wrong but I don't think I am.

 

This is an excellent post and I hope you don't mind me cutting parts of it out in order to save space in my "quote"

 

My reply to this is that the Brewers front office are pros and had to have been planning ahead when they signed Ramirez, knowing that they were also going to make a serious effort to sign Greinke. If the Ramirez signing means that they cannot extend Greinke, then that proves that the Ramirez signing was extremely foolish and I really don't think that is the case....

[RockCoCougars]

I think that we have to get out of the small market mentality here. If Attanasio wants to continue winning, he has to look into doing a deal with Greinke. Yes, it may look like a big chunk of money tied into a few players, but you also have to consider the fact that salaries will almost certainly continue going up faster than inflation. I'd assume with the new TV deal, that revenues will as well as long as the team puts a decent product on the field for the next few years and attendance doesn't plummet. Having 60 or 70 million tied up in a handful of guys seems crazy now, but it may not be so in five years. After all, who could have predicted 5 years ago that the Brewers would be pushing $100 million in payroll for 2012?

[PrinceFielderx1]

I think that we have to get out of the small market mentality here. If Attanasio wants to continue winning, he has to look into doing a deal with Greinke. Yes, it may look like a big chunk of money tied into a few players, but you also have to consider the fact that salaries will almost certainly continue going up faster than inflation. I'd assume with the new TV deal, that revenues will as well as long as the team puts a decent product on the field for the next few years and attendance doesn't plummet. Having 60 or 70 million tied up in a handful of guys seems crazy now, but it may not be so in five years. After all, who could have predicted 5 years ago that the Brewers would be pushing $100 million in payroll for 2012?

 

I agree. I mean if the Brewers want to compete with the rest of the division beyond this season, then I really think they need to re-sign Greinke. They need that 1/2 punch at the top of their rotation.

 

I wanted to add this, That I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers are trying really hard right now to extend Greinke, and that the contract will be extended by opening day.