Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[RockCoCougars]

I like the thought of Gallardo / Greinke at the top of the rotation for years to come, but I think it's being idealized a bit in that if we sign Greinke we are a World Series team, but without him we're bottom feeders. What realistically would be the difference (record-wise) if we signed Marcum to 3/$33MM vs Greinke for 6/$120? Since his surgery, Marcum has pitched 195.1 innings with a 3.64 ERA, 165K/43BB in 2010 and 200.2 innings with a 3.54 ERA 158K/57BB last season. In seven starts this season, he's got 44IP, 3.07 ERA and 39K/16BB. For his career, he's a 3.73 ERA pitcher.

 

Greinke is a better pitcher, I get that, but it's not like there's that much difference between having Greinke and not Marcum vs having Marcum and not Greinke, all else remaining the same. I'd guess that over a season if they each pitched to their "norms," we might win an extra game or two with Greinke than we would with Marcum. Plus, with Marcum, we'd have a shorter-term deal (less risk) and have extra money to upgrade elsewhere. Maybe that extra win would be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but I don't think it's worth "breaking the bank" and potentially crippling the franchise over if he gets hurt or stinks. It's certainly not the difference between being a World Series contender vs breaking up the entire team and starting over.

 

You make a valid point, but it's not like Marcum is going to get peanuts either. As a likely Top 5 pitcher on the market, he's going to command eight figures at a minimum of 3 years (probably 4/5). Greinke will probably top out at 6/150 at the extreme, likely closer to 5/120. In my book, Greinke has the type of stuff that should age well, and the opposite is the case with Marcum. Marcum is also nearly two years older. Toss in the injury history that Marcum has and giving him a big money deal as the consolation prize could end up being a major mistake. Going further, let's say that Marcum is $12 million per year cheaper than Greinke. What do you do with that money, sign another Ramirez or something? So far this season, the gap between Greinke and Marcum has been much greater than the gap between Ramirez and Random Guy making $1-$2 million would be.

 

Bottom line, I'd rather take the chance of overpaying Greinke than risking money that Marcum will be effective until he turns 35. If Greinke walks, I'd prefer to let Marcum do so as well and see how good these prospects are for a few years.

[topper09er]

 

Again, I'm still LOVING the way people talk down and declare that something "NEVER," will happen with a 26 year old.

 

Thank you Obi-won for your undeniable look into the future. But again, lets just wonder if it's POSSIBLE that I'm not talking about the walks(which I don't believe I've brought up once) and that I'm simply talking about him not swinging at terrible pitchers early on in the count, working himself into an 1-2 count or whatever it may be and then flailing away at the next pitch.

 

He HAS improved a great deal at that, and while I've been adamant about not using stats thus far THIS season, you seem inclined to do so.

 

Clearly, no one actually can see into the future. If you cant tell that all I am doing is predicting that he will never stop being a free swinger in the same way that you are predicting he will stop being one then I don't know what to say. His age doesnt really matter, what matters is his 1700+ PAs with a 5% walk rate. How many examples can you find of players like this who then upped their walk rate to 8-9% for the rest of their career?

 

You think he has improved, I think he is just having a hot streak. He has improved slightly in his 2 weeks worth of PAs this season, swinging at 8% fewer pitches outside of the zone with an 8% higher overall contact rate. However, he also has seen about5% more fastballs this season and 6% fewer curveballs compared to his career average. His walk rate is very important, if he never takes his walks he will never get enough hittable pitches to keep up his current pace.

[TheCrew07]

I understand that people see the payroll going up, the new local TV deal, the rumored MLB tv deal, and think that the Brewers have a shot to sign Greinke. However, I think some economic realities are being glossed over or simply overlooked.

 

The Brewers new local TV contract is better than what they had which was the worst in the league, but I'd venture a guess it's still in the bottom third league wide. Some teams, especially the large market teams are signing monster local contracts and there's still no equality in local revenue. The LAA contract dwarfed any upgrade in revenue the Brewers are receiving, and it will be similar for any large market team. From a local media contract perspective the gulf is only widening between the haves and the have nots, Milwaukee is actually losing ground.

 

Every team shares the MLB TV national contract equally... as such there's no competitive advantage for the Brewers vs the other teams in the league. What this will do is artificially inflate player salaries, the demand will remain the same, but since there is more money to go around, the salaries for the top players will rise significantly which will have a trickle down effect for all players on the 25 man roster.

 

While the increase in revenue for Milwaukee means that a $100 million payroll is likely sustainable at least in the short term, it doesn't mean the Brewers have any more buying power than before. A windfall of cash for every team simply means that while the Brewers will have more money to spend, the cost to acquire the talent will also rise significantly. Despite obtaining more revenue the Brewers will not gain any kind of competitive advantage which would make us significant players in free agency. It will have an effect on the Yankees as they lose some of their spending advantage as other large markets close the gap on their revenue, they just won't be able to outspend everyone else all the time. However the teams at the bottom won't be any better off than they were before. Some horrible contracts won't look as bad as the average cost per win rises, some contracts like Lucroy's will look like extreme bargains, but in the end the Brewers relative buying power will stay the same.

 

Greinke will get more money than Cain, not because he necessarily deserves it, but because there will be more money in the pool to be spent. The Brewers can probably match dollars short term, but the difference will always be the years. Can the Brewers afford the risk of giving Greinke a 7 year (or more) contract? I wouldn't do it, not for any FA pitcher. I would certainly do it for younger players locking them up until their early 30s but after that I'll pass, I'll take the risk on core type (impact talent, no McGehee types) pre-arby almost 100% of the time. This isn't the NFL where you can just cut a guy if he stinks late in his career, once that contract is signed, it's guaranteed money for the player regardless what happens. Who here is willing to risk having to eat $20 million for a season or more? For all the talk of what risky propositions prospects are, what about the significant risk of FA contracts, especially for the top pitchers?

 

Personally, I'd rather take my risks on talented prospects and Gallardo type contracts where the long-term financial ramifications are rather minor, nothing done in the shallow end of the pool is going to cripple the franchise. Rather than playing on the deep end of the pool where the significant risk of signing players who are downside of their careers from a production standpoint and the upside from an injury perspective for big money has the potential to cripple a franchise like Milwaukee. I might want to take an occasional dip over there on a hitter, but I've never wanted to be there for a pitcher. It's not so much about year or 1 or 2 or 3, it's what you're paying for at the end of the deal which is the issue. Will Ramirez be an $8 million player this season? Probably. Will he be a $16 million dollar player in 2014? I highly doubt it. Likewise will any pitcher be worth $20 million per year in their late 30s? Possibly, it's an awfully short list.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think that Greinke is going to get a seven year deal. Probably six. At any rate, it's time for Mark A. to step up to the plate and keep one of the stars on board. For all the crap people give Selig about hiding behind the small market excuse, he never let one of the Brewers stars leave through free agency for about 17 years until Molitor left. Yes, the economics are different these days but Greinke will not get more than mid $20's per. Probably about a $10 million bump from what he is making now, let Randy Wolf walk and there you go.... The arby Braun/Yo, etc. increases can be absorbed by shedding K-Rod, Marcum and Gonzalez from the payroll. As I said, if you let Greinke walk, assuming that money is spent, where will you get value? $10 million per doesn't buy much these days, unless you want to go back to the days where you spend a million or so a piece on the Todd Richies and John Vander Wals of the world.

[ninja33]

I think on the FA market Greinke gets a 6 year $140 million deal (similar to Santana's deal or CC's minus the 7th year). The way contracts have been handed out lately though, I guess there's a chance it balloons up into that $150 million (or 7+ years, or both) range. But I think the market value is about 6 yr/$140M. without REALLY knowing anything about Greinke but just taking a look at his personality/interviews and all that, I think he would stay in Milwaukee for the Matt Cain contract. That's not much of a discount (well, $2M a year is a bit of money), but hometown discounts can only go so far. That's where a new discussion would have to start between Zack and Milwaukee.

[HiAndTight]

 

Again, I'm still LOVING the way people talk down and declare that something "NEVER," will happen with a 26 year old.

 

Thank you Obi-won for your undeniable look into the future. But again, lets just wonder if it's POSSIBLE that I'm not talking about the walks(which I don't believe I've brought up once) and that I'm simply talking about him not swinging at terrible pitchers early on in the count, working himself into an 1-2 count or whatever it may be and then flailing away at the next pitch.

 

He HAS improved a great deal at that, and while I've been adamant about not using stats thus far THIS season, you seem inclined to do so.

 

Clearly, no one actually can see into the future. If you cant tell that all I am doing is predicting that he will never stop being a free swinger in the same way that you are predicting he will stop being one then I don't know what to say. His age doesnt really matter, what matters is his 1700+ PAs with a 5% walk rate. How many examples can you find of players like this who then upped their walk rate to 8-9% for the rest of their career?

 

You think he has improved, I think he is just having a hot streak. He has improved slightly in his 2 weeks worth of PAs this season, swinging at 8% fewer pitches outside of the zone with an 8% higher overall contact rate. However, he also has seen about5% more fastballs this season and 6% fewer curveballs compared to his career average. His walk rate is very important, if he never takes his walks he will never get enough hittable pitches to keep up his current pace.

 

 

Another small but simple example of what I've been harping on.

 

1st pitch slider on the black that he can't do anything with. He lays off.

 

Next pitch is a fastball he can do something with and drills it into center.

 

 

You see, some people honestly think this game doen't even require watching, only reading box scores and then using advanced metrics to make definitive statements on what a player is or isn't.

 

What I'm saying, is if you actually WATCH the guy play, screw the numbers, he's coming up to the plate and approaching his at bats differently. Not a hot streak as he wasn't "hot," before he went on the DL. And I know it's mind bending for someone to actually WATCH a player(I refer to Estrada last year when his velocity jumped and everyone said he was a fluke for about 2 months). No, he was a different player.

 

Numbers are HUGE when trying to decide what player to sign, to predict what a player is going to do over the course of a season, etc..etc..but talent has been found in this game for 130 years without them. Watching a player's a lot more important than being able to rattle off why he won't keep it up because he hasn't in the past.

 

And he VERY well may not keep it up. I'm just saying if he continues to have at bats like he has, which hasn't got a thing to do with him being "hot," and I'm sorry if I haven't articulated clearly enough yet that's not what I'm talking about, but I don't know how else to make it clearer, then he's going to be a much more effective big league hitter.

[HiAndTight]

I understand that people see the payroll going up, the new local TV deal, the rumored MLB tv deal, and think that the Brewers have a shot to sign Greinke. However, I think some economic realities are being glossed over or simply overlooked.

 

The Brewers new local TV contract is better than what they had which was the worst in the league, but I'd venture a guess it's still in the bottom third league wide. Some teams, especially the large market teams are signing monster local contracts and there's still no equality in local revenue. The LAA contract dwarfed any upgrade in revenue the Brewers are receiving, and it will be similar for any large market team. From a local media contract perspective the gulf is only widening between the haves and the have nots, Milwaukee is actually losing ground.

 

Every team shares the MLB TV national contract equally... as such there's no competitive advantage for the Brewers vs the other teams in the league. What this will do is artificially inflate player salaries, the demand will remain the same, but since there is more money to go around, the salaries for the top players will rise significantly which will have a trickle down effect for all players on the 25 man roster.

 

While the increase in revenue for Milwaukee means that a $100 million payroll is likely sustainable at least in the short term, it doesn't mean the Brewers have any more buying power than before. A windfall of cash for every team simply means that while the Brewers will have more money to spend, the cost to acquire the talent will also rise significantly. Despite obtaining more revenue the Brewers will not gain any kind of competitive advantage which would make us significant players in free agency. It will have an effect on the Yankees as they lose some of their spending advantage as other large markets close the gap on their revenue, they just won't be able to outspend everyone else all the time. However the teams at the bottom won't be any better off than they were before. Some horrible contracts won't look as bad as the average cost per win rises, some contracts like Lucroy's will look like extreme bargains, but in the end the Brewers relative buying power will stay the same.

 

Greinke will get more money than Cain, not because he necessarily deserves it, but because there will be more money in the pool to be spent. The Brewers can probably match dollars short term, but the difference will always be the years. Can the Brewers afford the risk of giving Greinke a 7 year (or more) contract? I wouldn't do it, not for any FA pitcher. I would certainly do it for younger players locking them up until their early 30s but after that I'll pass, I'll take the risk on core type (impact talent, no McGehee types) pre-arby almost 100% of the time. This isn't the NFL where you can just cut a guy if he stinks late in his career, once that contract is signed, it's guaranteed money for the player regardless what happens. Who here is willing to risk having to eat $20 million for a season or more? For all the talk of what risky propositions prospects are, what about the significant risk of FA contracts, especially for the top pitchers?

 

Personally, I'd rather take my risks on talented prospects and Gallardo type contracts where the long-term financial ramifications are rather minor, nothing done in the shallow end of the pool is going to cripple the franchise. Rather than playing on the deep end of the pool where the significant risk of signing players who are downside of their careers from a production standpoint and the upside from an injury perspective for big money has the potential to cripple a franchise like Milwaukee. I might want to take an occasional dip over there on a hitter, but I've never wanted to be there for a pitcher. It's not so much about year or 1 or 2 or 3, it's what you're paying for at the end of the deal which is the issue. Will Ramirez be an $8 million player this season? Probably. Will he be a $16 million dollar player in 2014? I highly doubt it. Likewise will any pitcher be worth $20 million per year in their late 30s? Possibly, it's an awfully short list.

 

 

We all understand baseball economics and how large market teams are going to have more money. There's a lot of words to explain what we already know.

 

 

However these aren't things that are all the sudden changing. The Yankees have had the "YES," Network, Boston's had HUGE TV deals, as have the Cubs and other teams. You're talking about the LA teams and the Rangers, all three teams that have recently signed new deals, but two of the teams have MASSIVE, MASSIVE debt, especially the Dodgers who paid 2 billion plus, and didn't even get all the parking rights, and the Rangers who have a good amount of debt.

 

And those teams have spent a ton of money in the last couple years.

 

 

So I don't know why you're constantly trying to diminish what the Brewers have done in being able to generate revenue. The thought the Brewers would be able to draw 3-3.5 million people, even AFTER raising payroll and carry a payroll of at least 110 million dollars 5 years ago was impossible to think of.

That's got very little to do with the overall baseball trend which I believe you exaggerate.

 

 

Bottom line, the Brewers rank a whole helluva lot higher in revenue than they have any right to for a team of their market size, and we don't always have to look for doom coming down the road or how little that means. That means a lot. It means the Brewers have done a great job at putting together a team, and not a thing has changed, and if he DOES sign a Santana like type deal that will just further point to the fact that things aren't trending nearly the way you seem to think.

 

We haven't had out of control salaries and they've been relatively stagnent for the very top contracts for the last decade plus. You have outliers like the Pujols deal. One of the greatest hitters of all time, or Prince who's 28 and was signed by a billionaire owner who is old and just wants to win ONE contract.

 

But it's like we forget about the Mike Hampton deals, the Mo Vaughn deals, Albert Belle deals.

 

 

This isn't like when a quarter used to buy you a soda. Inflation isn't that extreme. Even Yu didn't get that much more than Dice-K and everyone was pretty much in agreement Yu was the much better prospect.

 

 

 

And really, if you DO want to stay up there and compete financially with the big boys, you'd better re-sign Greinke, because if you don't, this team's future looks pretty bleak and there isn't going to be a whole lot of people going to the park to watch a 90 loss team.

[RockCoCougars]

Personally I think that the ability to draw walks is somewhat overblown, but Carlos looks like Frank Thomas compared to Taylor Green at this point in his career. The guy has 1 career walk. I didn't want to send this thread completely careening off the OT cliff, but I saw this stat today for the first time and it blew me away.

[endaround]

If only there was somewhere else we could see the Green tends to walk 10% of the time...

[PrinceEatMeat]

How did a Greinke thread turn into a Gomez vs. Green discussion?

[Funketown]

How did a Greinke thread turn into a Gomez vs. Green discussion?

 

Because Turnblow SUXXORS!!!

 

Greinke has been great this season. It's a bit too bad the team couldn't score its 16 in an Estrada start.

 

If the Brewers continue to struggle, they will get a good haul for him. I think we have to accept that his performance will price him out of Milwaukee at this point. I'll miss watching him.

[HiAndTight]

I think on the FA market Greinke gets a 6 year $140 million deal (similar to Santana's deal or CC's minus the 7th year). The way contracts have been handed out lately though, I guess there's a chance it balloons up into that $150 million (or 7+ years, or both) range. But I think the market value is about 6 yr/$140M. without REALLY knowing anything about Greinke but just taking a look at his personality/interviews and all that, I think he would stay in Milwaukee for the Matt Cain contract. That's not much of a discount (well, $2M a year is a bit of money), but hometown discounts can only go so far. That's where a new discussion would have to start between Zack and Milwaukee.

 

 

 

And Greinke's in the midst of putting together a historical season for the Milwaukee Brewers right now IMO. It's early, so those 8 ER's in 1 2/3 innings vs the Cubs are still greatly inflating his numbers, but if you take them out, he's got to be among the top couple for early Cy Young candidates.

 

 

And again, the Brewers won't make a more important decision for a very-very long time, and I don't think they've made such an important decision for a LONG time. Perhaps dating back to the Fingers trade.

 

To sign Greinke could POTENTIALLY give us an elite staff as our young pitchers are eased into their roles and allowed to perform as young, extremely talented pitchers often do. Dominate for stretches, get rattled here and there and blow a game. But as our #3/4/5 pitchers, that is more than acceptable.

 

To get that out of your #2/3/4/5 pitchers, or to sign a pitchers to an inflated contract(with the exception of Edwin Jackson...there's a guy I'd LOVE to see in Milwaukee for 4 years and 40 million with or without Greinke next year) puts too much pressure on a team that looks now like it can only hope to be above average offensively and defensively in the near future. Meaning they have to be great on the mound.

 

The POTENTIAL of Greinke/Gallardo/Thornburg/Peralta/Fiers gives us that while leaving Rogers, Manzanillo when healthy, Wooten, Ax and the rest of the list giving the bullpen a big boost.

[HiAndTight]

I realize I probably sound like a political fanatic babbling on a message board in which nobody on the board can actually do anything about it, so I have probably gone WAY overboard in my Greinke demands, I just think it would be Molitor-esque in the damage it would cause the Brewers.

 

ESPECIALLY if the Brewers have a 80-85 win season this year. Couple that with the loss of any hope for the near future and I think 2.5 would be a great draw next year. At least with Greinke you have the excitement that you have some guys coming up like Gennett, your guys bouncing back(if they don't this year like Weeks) and then all the pitching that even the average Brewers fan knows about.

[The stache]

A starting staff of with Greinke, Gallardo, Peralta, Thornburg, Jungman and Bradley to choose from.....wow. I wouldn't want to be the other team.

[HiAndTight]

A starting staff of with Greinke, Gallardo, Peralta, Thornburg, Jungman and Bradley to choose from.....wow. I wouldn't want to be the other team.

 

 

I agree. And when you consider what we normally spend on a rotation. Heck, what we're spending this year, that staff wouldn't cost much more than what we're already paying.

 

You take Greinke out of that however, Thornburg god forbid gets TJ surgery, and someone doesn't quite pan out and you have a very average rotation.

 

Even if that happens WITH Greinke we still have a very good rotation with the hopes for a GREAT one. Only time will tell I suppose.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm really having a hard time figuring out what side of the fence I'm on with ZG right now. Obviously I'd be very excited if they signed him, but now with the team in trouble for this year, I'm having the trade thoughts again. I know it would suck to lose him, but if we can get 3-4 prospects, one being a SS, man that's tough to pass up. I really believe that pitchers make the world turn in baseball right now, and if you can cash in on a guy like Zack, sometimes you have to do it and get the prospects. I really like him so it's hard for me to say which side I'm on.

[brwrsfan]

They have to fall way, way out of it to consider trading him. And even then, they might not, as they will offer him the arbitration (even with the new rules) to get the compensation for it. Any chance they have to resign him I think is likely contingent on him staying here all year and loving it.

 

As awful as we've played, we're only 5.5 games back....this season isn't totally lost. Yet.

[crewcrazy]

One thing to remember about possibly trading Greinke, though, are the new free agent compensation rules. In order to get comp picks, you need to make a qualifying offer on that player, and you can only make a qualifying offer if the player was on your team for the entire season. Any team that would trade for Greinke would be unable to get compensation picks for him, meaning the return for Greinke likely wouldn't be as great as it would have been under the old rules.

 

In other words, they won't be getting the equivalent of what they gave the Royals to get him. If they wanted that, they would have had to deal him over the winter. Midseason blockbusters are pretty much dead, unless the team trading for the star player thinks they have a good chance at keeping him or you deal with a GM who isn't very sane.

[jjfanec]

One thing to remember about possibly trading Greinke, though, are the new free agent compensation rules. In order to get comp picks, you need to make a qualifying offer on that player, and you can only make a qualifying offer if the player was on your team for the entire season. Any team that would trade for Greinke would be unable to get compensation picks for him, meaning the return for Greinke likely wouldn't be as great as it would have been under the old rules.

 

In other words, they won't be getting the equivalent of what they gave the Royals to get him. If they wanted that, they would have had to deal him over the winter. Midseason blockbusters are pretty much dead, unless the team trading for the star player thinks they have a good chance at keeping him or you deal with a GM who isn't very sane.

 

There is probably some truth to that but I dont think some of the big market teams worry quite as much about the first round pick they could get back. Also a team could trade for Greinke hoping to sign him to an extension. Of course we are not going to get what we gave up for Greinke. We were getting him for 2 years not 3 months. I dont think anyone should expect that type of return, but the possibility of a young impact arm or bat is definitely there

[Baldkin]

Does the new CBA allow an "extension window" much like when the Mets traded for Santana?

[thebruce44]

 

Again, I'm still LOVING the way people talk down and declare that something "NEVER," will happen with a 26 year old.

 

Thank you Obi-won for your undeniable look into the future. But again, lets just wonder if it's POSSIBLE that I'm not talking about the walks(which I don't believe I've brought up once) and that I'm simply talking about him not swinging at terrible pitchers early on in the count, working himself into an 1-2 count or whatever it may be and then flailing away at the next pitch.

 

He HAS improved a great deal at that, and while I've been adamant about not using stats thus far THIS season, you seem inclined to do so.

 

Clearly, no one actually can see into the future. If you cant tell that all I am doing is predicting that he will never stop being a free swinger in the same way that you are predicting he will stop being one then I don't know what to say. His age doesnt really matter, what matters is his 1700+ PAs with a 5% walk rate. How many examples can you find of players like this who then upped their walk rate to 8-9% for the rest of their career?

 

You think he has improved, I think he is just having a hot streak. He has improved slightly in his 2 weeks worth of PAs this season, swinging at 8% fewer pitches outside of the zone with an 8% higher overall contact rate. However, he also has seen about5% more fastballs this season and 6% fewer curveballs compared to his career average. His walk rate is very important, if he never takes his walks he will never get enough hittable pitches to keep up his current pace.

 

 

Another small but simple example of what I've been harping on.

 

1st pitch slider on the black that he can't do anything with. He lays off.

 

Next pitch is a fastball he can do something with and drills it into center.

 

 

You see, some people honestly think this game doen't even require watching, only reading box scores and then using advanced metrics to make definitive statements on what a player is or isn't.

 

What I'm saying, is if you actually WATCH the guy play, screw the numbers, he's coming up to the plate and approaching his at bats differently. Not a hot streak as he wasn't "hot," before he went on the DL. And I know it's mind bending for someone to actually WATCH a player(I refer to Estrada last year when his velocity jumped and everyone said he was a fluke for about 2 months). No, he was a different player.

 

Numbers are HUGE when trying to decide what player to sign, to predict what a player is going to do over the course of a season, etc..etc..but talent has been found in this game for 130 years without them. Watching a player's a lot more important than being able to rattle off why he won't keep it up because he hasn't in the past.

 

And he VERY well may not keep it up. I'm just saying if he continues to have at bats like he has, which hasn't got a thing to do with him being "hot," and I'm sorry if I haven't articulated clearly enough yet that's not what I'm talking about, but I don't know how else to make it clearer, then he's going to be a much more effective big league hitter.

 

I think part of the reason people are "talking down" to you isn't that they aren't watching the games, its that we have seen Gomez get his head right before and fix his approach, then go back to being himself a few weeks later.

 

And BTW, its talking down to other posters when you assume they are just reading box scores and looking at metrics just because they disagree with you.

[topper09er]

Carlos Gomez is 3-3 pinch hitting this season.

 

As a CF this season: 53 PA, .245/.288/.367

[TooLiveBrew]

I really believe Greinke will get a contract around $150M this offseason. Even though I absolutely love him as a player, I don't want to see the Brewers commit that much money to him. I don't think the Cain deal ($112M iirc) will get it done with the Brewers. In fact, my not-supported-by-any-facts take is that the Brewers probably offered him something around the Cain deal earlier this season just before talks broke down. My guess is they offered (appx.) the Cain deal, Close countered with something around $140-150M, & the Brewers said no thanks.

[logan82]

I really believe Greinke will get a contract around $150M this offseason. Even though I absolutely love him as a player, I don't want to see the Brewers commit that much money to him. I don't think the Cain deal ($112M iirc) will get it done with the Brewers. In fact, my not-supported-by-any-facts take is that the Brewers probably offered him something around the Cain deal earlier this season just before talks broke down. My guess is they offered (appx.) the Cain deal, Close countered with something around $140-150M, & the Brewers said no thanks.

If that is the case forget it. I am not sure if I would even be comfortable with a deal close to the Cain deal. Not having Greinke will certainly make things interesting for the next few years. We will see what Melvin is made of.

[ninja33]

I really believe Greinke will get a contract around $150M this offseason. Even though I absolutely love him as a player, I don't want to see the Brewers commit that much money to him. I don't think the Cain deal ($112M iirc) will get it done with the Brewers. In fact, my not-supported-by-any-facts take is that the Brewers probably offered him something around the Cain deal earlier this season just before talks broke down. My guess is they offered (appx.) the Cain deal, Close countered with something around $140-150M, & the Brewers said no thanks.

 

Cain's deal is 6 yr/$127.5M. I agree with you that Greinke will get $140M on the open market (maybe more), and I think milwaukee could get Greinke to stick around for the Cain deal (maybe bump it up to $130M). That may be more than they want to (or should) spend. It's very debatable.

 

If I had to guess they probably initially offered a contract around what you thought Cain got ($112M over 6 years) or similar to what Weaver got (5 yrs $85-90M). More likely the 5 year deal. Then Cain got his contract, that set a bar, Greinke said "we need at least this" and talks broke down.

 

Total guess, but makes sense to me.