Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[HiAndTight]

Whether a player looks good in 54 PA or has had good results in 54 PA, there is no real difference. I have seen many terrible hitters look pretty good for the first month of the season, as has anyone who watches a lot of baseball. The instinct is to get pretty excited if he plays for your team, but the majority of the time, reality hits soon enough,

 

Gomez is a great defender and a decent base runner... that is it right now. He has value but it has nothing to do with his stick. I agree that he is young enough to still make some strides offensively but the notion he could be a 5 WAR player... sorry.

 

 

I couldn't possibly disagree more. I'm not any more encouraged about Kottaras as a catcher as I was coming into the season.

 

And it has nothing to do with him being on my team, it has to do with a fundamental change in a short period of time as to how he approaches the ball.

 

I do appreciate your definitive declaration that he can't possibly turn into a 5 war player. [sarcasm]I'm quite certain a 26 year old player with incredible pure tools has never been a late bloomer and put it together later on than expected.[/sarcasm]

 

The, "sorry," part is beyond condescending.

 

I'm guessing a few years ago you'd have "informed me," with the same condescension that Nelson Cruz(after being put on waivers) would never become a 5 WAR player. Which he did in just 108 games.

 

And it wouldn't take much for Gomez. Again, I'm guessing if he was an everyday player and put up a .285/.330 line with his power potential and SB ability to go on top of his elite CF play, that would place him at a 4-5 WAR player....sorry.

 

I honestly wasn't trying to be condescending nor was I suggesting it is absolutely impossible that Gomez develops into a 5 WAR guy. Almost nothing has a 0% chance of occurring, after all. Despite his young age, it simply remains extremely unlikely. Again, around mid May, we read SO many stories about how previously bad hitters have made a fundamental change in their approach, only to find most go right back to being bad. I hope Gomez is the exception but I doubt it. You can search for anecdotal evidence to the contrary but that doesn't make it any more likely.

 

And your example of Cruz isn't a very good example, anyway (IMO, of course). He put up a 5 WAR season in 2010, sure. It was a great year. But there is a big difference between putting up a 5 WAR season and being a 5 WAR player. He followed that up his great 2010 season with an average 2011 season and hasn't done a whole lot this year, yet, either. He's an above average player no doubt but I don't know if anyone is projecting him to be a 5 WAR guy going forward. There simply aren't that many players out there that do.

 

I've always felt that Gomez had value to the Brewers but it has never had anything to do with his bat. This is the third year in a row that I've heard he may have turned the corner offensively, though. I just don't think pure athleticism translates into good hitting as much as people think it should.

 

You have to admit, "the notion that he could turn into a 5 war player....sorry," comes off as condescending.

 

And again, we're getting off base here, so I'll answer this and then respond to the next post and lets get back to Grienke.

 

My suggestion was he still has the potential to be an 5 WAR player if he can turn him into just a decent hitter. And I don't think .275 or so and .330 or so is really that unrealistic. Should he be able to reach those numbers, I'd assume with his pure power, he'd be able to hit 12-15 and steal a whole lot of bases.

 

 

 

I also think it's unlikely. I've started there, and I'll end there. I'm not predicting this will happen. It's entirely possible Gomez goes right back to being the guy who'll swing at the 1st pitch every at bat no matter where it is.

 

The ONLY-THING I'm saying is that this season Gomez has looked different. He's had a different approach and changed the way he approaches his at bats. And if-IF-IF-IF he can continue to do that, he's going to be an extremely valuable player just hitting .275 or so with even a below average or average OBP because of everything else he brings.

[monty57]

But my point is why sign Greinke long term now? Call it what you wiill, but this is rebuilding time. Not that the brewers can't field a competitive team while they're rebuilding, but even with Greinke I don't consider them to be a WS contender for a couple years.

 

Bottom line, it's pretty defeatist to concede that you cannot compete to keep your own talent.

 

You call it defeatist, I call it reality. The Brewers can't compete to keep their own talent. Was it defeatist not to make a legitimate effort to re-sign Sabathia or Fielder? Because we both know a serious offer was not made in either case.

 

It is defeatist to me. This team is currently fielding a payroll in the range of $100 million, a good chunk of which has been fueled by the attendance boom. There is no way that they are losing money either. If that's the case, and they are getting more TV money next year, there is no reason whatsoever that they should not be able to make a realistic offer to Greinke. I get the feeling that they have lowballed him thus far. Greinke is not going to get a contract in the Pujols/Fielder range. No one will give a pitcher more than 6 years. At most, he will get something like Cain got- maybe 20% or so more at the extreme, the Brewers can afford that.

 

Bottom line, if the Brewers have two ace quality pitchers, they should be in the mix for the next several years. If they let Greinke walk and then resign Marcum for much cheaper, I'm not going to be sold the bill of goods that their PR machine churns out over the winter, because it's a profit maximizing move, not a solid baseball one. In that event, Attanasio had better get his bean counters out doing a marginal revenue analysis based on an attendance drop in the event of a 65 win season.

 

The Brewers' extra TV money is rumored to be around an additional $20MM/year. Larger markets are also getting extra TV money to the tune of $130MM/year. What happens when everyone gets a sudden inflow of new money without a move in supply or demand (there are still the same players out there and each team still needs 25 of them to field a team) is that prices go up. Sometimes dramatically. This is why Fielder, Pujols, Votto, Cain, etc got their huge deals, and it is likely to continue for a while.

 

If the prices move "x" and the Brewers increase in revenues is less than "x" because other teams' revenues went up at a much more rapid pace than the Brewers', then the Brewers will have less "real" money to spend relative to other teams. In other words, they may have a $100MM+ payroll, but it will buy less talent because the talent is much more expensive.

 

The talent which is not getting more expensive is the pre-arby talent, which makes this talent much more valueable on a relative basis. The trend of extending pre-arby guys to "buy out" some free agent years can also work in the Brewers' favor. The problem is that we have been trading away or blocking our young talent recently, so we don't have a lot of pre-arby guys hanging around. Trading some of the guys we're losing anyway could be a way to increase our supply of what is rapidly becoming the most valueable commodity in baseball.

[HiAndTight]

His OPS dropped 270 points in a weeks worth of games. Is it really hard to fathom that he was just hot?

 

 

 

Yes, it is, because if you've read ANYTHING I've said on the subject it hasn't had a single thing to do with his numbers this year, it's had to do with his approach to the game.

 

Similar to if Marcum would have come out of the off-season with all his talk about trying to gain velocity by using his legs more and gotten his fastball up to 92-93 from 88.

 

I wouldn't even bother looking at his numbers over 4 weeks of time.....that's going to show you next to nothing.

 

I'm not concerned with Weeks thus far because of his numbers and I'm not encouraged because of the numbers Gomez has put up. I'm simply looking at his adjustments. And AGAIN-they maybe short lived. There hasn't been any question about that whatsoever.

 

 

 

 

LITERALLY-all I'm saying is that we're dismissing Gomez as a future piece for the Brewers a little bit too soon-AND that he's looked much better after changing his approach thus far this year.

[HiAndTight]

 

You call it defeatist, I call it reality. The Brewers can't compete to keep their own talent. Was it defeatist not to make a legitimate effort to re-sign Sabathia or Fielder? Because we both know a serious offer was not made in either case.

 

It is defeatist to me. This team is currently fielding a payroll in the range of $100 million, a good chunk of which has been fueled by the attendance boom. There is no way that they are losing money either. If that's the case, and they are getting more TV money next year, there is no reason whatsoever that they should not be able to make a realistic offer to Greinke. I get the feeling that they have lowballed him thus far. Greinke is not going to get a contract in the Pujols/Fielder range. No one will give a pitcher more than 6 years. At most, he will get something like Cain got- maybe 20% or so more at the extreme, the Brewers can afford that.

 

Bottom line, if the Brewers have two ace quality pitchers, they should be in the mix for the next several years. If they let Greinke walk and then resign Marcum for much cheaper, I'm not going to be sold the bill of goods that their PR machine churns out over the winter, because it's a profit maximizing move, not a solid baseball one. In that event, Attanasio had better get his bean counters out doing a marginal revenue analysis based on an attendance drop in the event of a 65 win season.

 

The Brewers' extra TV money is rumored to be around an additional $20MM/year. Larger markets are also getting extra TV money to the tune of $130MM/year. What happens when everyone gets a sudden inflow of new money without a move in supply or demand (there are still the same players out there and each team still needs 25 of them to field a team) is that prices go up. Sometimes dramatically. This is why Fielder, Pujols, Votto, Cain, etc got their huge deals, and it is likely to continue for a while.

 

If the prices move "x" and the Brewers increase in revenues is less than "x" because other teams' revenues went up at a much more rapid pace than the Brewers', then the Brewers will have less "real" money to spend relative to other teams. In other words, they may have a $100MM+ payroll, but it will buy less talent because the talent is much more expensive.

 

The talent which is not getting more expensive is the pre-arby talent, which makes this talent much more valueable on a relative basis. The trend of extending pre-arby guys to "buy out" some free agent years can also work in the Brewers' favor. The problem is that we have been trading away or blocking our young talent recently, so we don't have a lot of pre-arby guys hanging around. Trading some of the guys we're losing anyway could be a way to increase our supply of what is rapidly becoming the most valueable commodity in baseball.

 

 

 

First of all, these teams getting 130 million per year in TV money aren't the norm, they're the minority. The Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Sox, Rangers...very few teams. And the Brewers are going from the worst TV deal in baseball to an obviously much better one. And you're also comparing 20 million...which is how much ADDITIONAL revenue this will add to our existing TV deal to the 130 which is the total other teams are getting. This TV deal in total is worth a helluva lot more than 20 million in total.

 

And it couldn't be more defeatist to just declare that we're in rebuilding mode. No, we're NOT. Not WITH Greinke. With Greinke, we're the same team for the most part we are right now with better health and time to allow our young arms to supplement our big league talent. Schafer, Green, Gamel, Gindl, Gennett are all guys who can make an impact at the big league level and could do so in the next couple months and over the next 6 years.

 

Our pitching continues to improve in the minor leagues a great deal.

 

And moving forward, we should be able to sustain a 110 million dollar payroll at least. We're at about 103 right now, and again, without listing the reasons, after making a lot of money last year(a lot relative to the "we could lose money argument Mark A put forth) and drawing that much better this year, and after higher ticket prices along with that, TV money and the new Radio contract, 115+ wouldn't surprise me in the short term.

 

Now these things seldom continue at this rate. Look at the Indians. They sold out how many games for how long? There is going to come a time when fans lose a little interest unless we're one of the top teams in the NFL every year and our attendance will decline. So I don't think ranking as high as we do in payroll is just the way things are now, but I DO believe they're the way things will be for the near future. And with Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, and other high priced players on the roster, if we do start to see steep declines in payroll, we can adjust accordingly.

 

But I don't understand why we'd be waving the white flag WITH Greinke. Again, Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Narveson and Peralta could very well make for a very good rotation next year. Extrada and Fiers also get thrown into the mix with Bradley, Jungman, and Nelson as rotation options the following year or two.

 

What's more, signing Greinke doesn't preclude any additional upgrades anywhere else. I personally would feel comfortable going back with Gonzalez next year at SS and certainly hope that Gamel gets the gig at 1st base again as I think he's still the future there despite the whole freaking line of crap he's had to suffer through.

 

WITH Greinke, the Brewers just need a couple tweeks and health and they should be a contender for the duration of his contract with he and Gallardo fronting the rotation, Braun, Lucroy, Gamel, Weeks, Hart, good OF rotation, regardless of who it is, Schafer, Gomez, Gindl, Morgan(likely gone IMO) and Aoki(who I think could and should be getting a lot more PT).

 

I just don't see why we'd be in a rebuilding mode WITH Greinke.

 

 

I also agree that trying to compare Greinke to either Prince, OR CC is ridiculous. The situation here is entirely different. The Yankees were going to sign CC and made that clear well before that season even started.

 

There seems to continue to be this delusion out there that these are the same Brewers of old that can't compete financially in any situation. I'm not sure what more the Brewers have to do in order to dispel that myth.

[jerichoholicninja]

There seems to continue to be this delusion out there that these are the same Brewers of old that can't compete financially in any situation. I'm not sure what more the Brewers have to do in order to dispel that myth.

 

Actually spending some money on someone would help.

 

The Yankees were going to give CC whatever he asked for so I can't blame them for not signing him. It was pretty clear there was not much of a market for Fielder last year, no matter what your feelings about signing him, that was an opportunity to open the bank and spend some money. Co-Co went to Cincy for an extra $1M, that would have been a terrible contact for the Brewers but it seems that was pretty easy to match or best. If I remember correctly the Brewers outbid the Yankees for Cameron, so they've done that. Otherwise Doug and Co. have shown me nothing that they're willing to compete financially with the rich teams. Sure they've signed Aramis and Wolf but I don't think they competed with anybody for those guys.

 

Now they have Greinke who is a great pitcher. He's young and has a history of health. I see no reason why they shouldn't break the bank for him.

[monty57]

I was merely stating that the new inflows of money (from TV deals and other sources) have created a huge increase in price for free agents, particularly for top-tier talent. Therefore, a $100MM payroll won't buy as much talent as it would've bought a few years ago. I think the Brewers will be able to sustain a higher nominal payroll than in previous years, but the $ higher will likely be lower than the $ higher for some other teams, and that mixed with inflated salaries means their "real" payroll could be lower than the nominal number may have you believe.

 

Our biggest hope was signing him when we had exclusive rights, and he had the worry of sustaining a long-term injury while he was under his current contract. I don't have an inside scoop, but from all reports Greinke seems to have decided to play to free agency, where there will be a lot of teams bidding on him. I could easily see him surpassing Cain's contract, as Cain signed prior to other teams having the ability to get involved to start a bidding war. Just like Pujols was swiped from the Cardinals, all it takes is one team with more money than the Brewers to really want Greinke and he'll be gone.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him fronting the rotation for the next few seasons. A couple of months ago I thought it would happen, but when the two sides sat down at the table and he quickly walked away, I started to prepare myself for a future without Greinke. Now I'm just waiting to see if we're going to improve on the field, where we'll "go for it" before losing a lot of free agents and probably having to rebuild, or if we'll continue to falter to the point that we "sell," allowing us to get some really good young players to hopefully keep us good going forward. I'm not trying to be defeatist... I want them to win, but most of all I want what's best for the franchise as a whole, since I plan on watching the Brewers for many years to come. If they can afford to pay Greinke and put a winning team around him, then go for it, but if his price tag's too high, we will be better off building without him. If the latter holds true, then we could probably build quicker if we trade him for a good, young player or two who can step in and help us for the next five or six years.

[HiAndTight]

And I agree with that philosophy. I was leading the charge to trade Hart for Bumgarner when it was rumored to be on the table a couple years ago when it was coming up and Hart was having a great 1st half.

 

I wanted the Brewers to completely rebuild a few years ago when Prince was two years away from his walk year using Lawrie among others are our core pieces(I still think that Lawrie trade will haunt us for YEARS to come).

 

But when we ended up getting Greinke, a guy that I openly pined for when we ended up getting CC(simply because I thought he would allow us a much wider window and the Royals were openly shopping him at the time).

 

Greinke to me is the biggest move the Brewers have made the last 25 years and will make over the next decade. We all know how hard it is to crawl out of that habitual cycle of being the bottom feeder. We went through it for the better part of..what, 26 years with a decent year here or there?

 

I just think Greinke's got a Cy Young or two left in him and he is such a dominant pitcher that with the young arms we have coming up, we can be a team similar to the Rays if we can hold onto Greinke. Just a guy I think will cripple this franchise if we lose.

 

AND I think we're going to just blow Braun's prime years without Greinke.

WITH Greinke...again, I've thrown this out there a dozen times, but could you imagine the potential in 2 years? Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley as your starting 5? With Fiers, Jungman(who frankly could knock out either of the last two) and still having a number of impressive arms coming up. Of course there will be Tommy John's in there and other issues, but the truth is, we've got the pieces to build AROUND Gallardo and Greinke and put forth a GREAT dominant, potential league best rotation. Take Greinke out and we could have an above average rotation without any real outstanding position players on their way.

 

It'll be the worst day in Milwaukee since Molitor left if Greinke leaves as a FA as well.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think it has a lot to do with money.

 

The Brewers know where the market is for Zack. So does he.

 

It all comes down to Greinke not wanting to get caught up with a bad team.

 

He knows Hart is gone after 2013 (barring an extension). He knows we don't have a SS. Or 1B. He knows Marcum and Wolf are FAs after this year. He knows Narvy is coming off major surgery.

 

He knows Ramirez is aging and a bad fielder.

 

He knows most of our impact talent (Jungmann, Bradley, Thornburg, etc.) is a 2-3 years away.

 

He knows the system lacks impact bats.

 

What's the offense like in 2014?

 

C - Lucroy

1B - ? - Gamel? Morris?

2B - Weeks

SS - ?

3B - Ramirez

LF - Braun

CF - Schafer? Plush? Aoki? Gomez?

RF - Gindl?

 

Sure, we can make some deals. But Zack can't count on deals that 'might' happen. Deals that will forfeit 2013 for the future.

 

I think the only way we keep Greinke is if we do well in 2012. The Aoki/Morgan/Gomez hydra has to improve. Ramirez has got to get WAY better. Weeks has got to become Rickie of the past. Ishikawa has to keep improving. Estrada has to prove he's a solid starter. Maybe Peralta can come up and help in the pen in a big way, thus making him primed for a starting spot in 2013.

 

The club has to do well in 2012 and appear to have a chance in the next few years. I think that's the key to keeping Zack.

[HiAndTight]

Actually spending some money on someone would help. [/b

[sarcasm]Yeah, it's not like the Brewers have a 103 million dollar payroll this year when we had a 27 million dollar payroll about 7 years ago....[/sarcasm]

[reillymcshane]

 

WITH Greinke...again, I've thrown this out there a dozen times, but could you imagine the potential in 2 years? Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley as your starting 5? With Fiers, Jungman(who frankly could knock out either of the last two) and still having a number of impressive arms coming up.

 

This is a nice thing to watch for - sort of like when we had Hardy, Braun, Prince and Rickie all coming up together. And there are other guys that could develop as well. Makes for a decent future if even 1/2 of them turn out to be serviceable guys.

 

But having Greinke is really important, as you pointed. None of our other guys have the 'ace' potential like he does. At least not yet. I just hope he's interested in being part of it.

[HiAndTight]

He knows most of our impact talent (Jungmann, Bradley, Thornburg, etc.) is a 2-3 years away.

 

How do you argue that Thornburg is 2 maybe 3 years away? He's dominating in AA right now. Players regularily jump from AA to the big leagues, so to suggest he's even 2, much less 3 years away is absurd.

 

And Jungman and Bradley could both easily end up in AA this year putting them in play for next year.

 

Which is also ignoring that we've got out TOP pitching prospect in Peralta ready to go and waiting for the next phone call, a pitcher with upper 90's stuff who gets GO's.

 

Overall I just think you're superimposing your own belief system for his. "He knows that these players are this far away,"(something that absolutely nobody knows) and that we don't have any impact players(I doubt he decides where he's going based on the top 100 prospect list) and we do have some very good offensive players.

 

 

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly people forget about a player and write them off after a short period of time of struggles such as Weeks and company.

 

But if Greinke IS this guru of the minor leagues he professes, he'll see we've got some pretty good young OF'ers, and defensive upgrades in the minors. It's YOUR view that Aram isn't a good player moving forward when he's shown almost no signs over the last several years that he's a viable middle of the order hitter,and he's not exactly 40 years old. Weeks is in the midst of the worst slump of his career and still has an OBP around .300. If Greinke is in tune with everything as you seem to think, I'm guessing that'll play a role.

 

Not to mention, Greinke's also made it known(actually made it known, not us gleaning his opinion from almost nothing) that he prefers the smaller market at times throughout the trading process. So where are the small market teams that have the upside the Brewers do with Greinke on other teams?

 

The Pirates? The Royals? They're possible I suppose, they should have some money to spend. I don't doubt there will be a lot of teams that will show interest, but I think in the end the Brewers will have the money to sign him and have to get it done, and I suspect Mark A will also want to. I don't care if we're paying him 1 million a year until he's 72 like we need to sign him above all other moves we've made or are likely to make in the near future.

 

 

 

This is all aside from the fact that I don't understand why exactly you think Greinke has all this insight into the downside of the Brewers, but none of the upside, including increasing revenues and a team coming off a NLCS game 6 loss to the Cardinals just one year ago.

 

So I doubt he looks at the Brewers as a team that can't win considering that he was IN contract talks until Matt Cain signed(suggesting you're 180 degrees off here), and we have won, they won last year after starting off in a similar fashion.

[jjfanec]

And I agree with that philosophy. I was leading the charge to trade Hart for Bumgarner when it was rumored to be on the table a couple years ago when it was coming up and Hart was having a great 1st half.

 

I wanted the Brewers to completely rebuild a few years ago when Prince was two years away from his walk year using Lawrie among others are our core pieces(I still think that Lawrie trade will haunt us for YEARS to come).

 

 

I am sorry but there is NO WAY Hart for Bumgarner was ever on the table. Bumgarner was a top 10 prospect in the game. SF wasnt trading him for a good not great corner OF. I was all for trading Hart for a pitching prospect but some of the names tossed around on this board have been ridiculous - Cain and Bumgarner. Now we may have been able to get one of the Atlanta guys and that would have been very nice.

 

Lawrie could be a player that haunts us but his start to this year is looking much similar to his minor league numbers outside of last year. He has a solid average but not nearly the power he displayed last year. Also if we didnt have Marcum we werent getting Greinke. It sounds like Prince was on the market for a while but no good offers came so we decided to make a run for it. Not sure if that is true. However, does Greinke come here without Prince? I doubt it.

 

I understand that we need to build through the draft and trading guys away before their prime years but the problem has been a completely bare cupboard for minor league pitching and no impact bats to replace the big names we could trade. Lawrie was the one impact bat in our system and I guess La Porta but he hasnt amounted to anything

[HiAndTight]

 

WITH Greinke...again, I've thrown this out there a dozen times, but could you imagine the potential in 2 years? Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley as your starting 5? With Fiers, Jungman(who frankly could knock out either of the last two) and still having a number of impressive arms coming up.

 

This is a nice thing to watch for - sort of like when we had Hardy, Braun, Prince and Rickie all coming up together. And there are other guys that could develop as well. Makes for a decent future if even 1/2 of them turn out to be serviceable guys.

 

But having Greinke is really important, as you pointed. None of our other guys have the 'ace' potential like he does. At least not yet. I just hope he's interested in being part of it.

 

Well, I would argue that we do have pitchers that have ace like potential. I'd argue though that around MLB each system has several guys with "ace," like potential. I think Peralta, Thornburg, Bradley, Jorge Lopez, Brooks Hall and even Jungman who people say has the upside of a #2 has ace like potential.

 

We just all know how unlikely it is to reach that potential and most are more likely to be #2-#4 types. Higher end #2/3/4's.

 

 

You get to a point where you're ascending and it's as much fun to watch your team try to win as it is to watch your team bring up the future and watch these uber talented young core pieces get their first taste of the big leagues.

 

I can't think of anything more boring than an 80 win team without some superstar potential in the minors. So right now the most interesting thing about the organization to me are the Brooks Halls, the Arcia's, the Rivera's, Richardson's, Gennetts, and obviously the rest of the pitchers we've talked about.

 

I just want both. I want Greinke so we still have the potential to be a playoff team, and I want all the picks we've had and are likely to have coming up develop a couple of those superstar prospects.

 

 

NOTHING makes me more sick than to think that we could have Mike Trout right now if not for the terrible rules that gave the Angels the #1 pick of the Yankees over Sabathia and gave us their 2nd rounder, and Brett Lawrie.

 

Just close your eyes and imagine our pitching prospects with the potential to have a Trout/Lawrie/Braun/Hart/Weeks/Aram/Lucroy/-SS with Greinke/Gallardo/Wolf/Estrada and Peralta filling out the rotation.

 

But..hindsight being what it is...is...not fun at times.

[monty57]

I don't think it has a lot to do with money.

 

I agree with you that Greinke likely wants to play for a winner, but if someone blows the Brewers' offer away, like the Yankees did with CC and the Angels did with Pujols, then it will certainly have a lot to do with money. Plus the sad truth about baseball is that often the team with the most money also has the best chance of being a winner.

 

WITH Greinke...again, I've thrown this out there a dozen times, but could you imagine the potential in 2 years? Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley as your starting 5?

 

I agree that would be nice, but it's not the only nice option. Imagine if we were to trade some of our "chips" for a great young SS, and some top young SPs who could step right into the rotation this season and be ready to shine in the coming years. I'm just throwing names out here, and it may or may not be realistic, but what if we have something like Yo, Marcum, {Eovaldi/Delgado-type}, Wolf, Peralta in the rotation next year with Lucroy, Gamel, Weeks, {Profar/Machado-type}, Ramirez, Braun, Schafer/Gomez/Aoki, Gindl in the field?

 

There are a lot of ways to remain good. I just think the worst-case scenario this season is to trade prospects to "buy" this season, miss the playoffs and lose Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and maybe Wolf to free agency when the season's over.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think it has a lot to do with money.

 

I agree with you that Greinke likely wants to play for a winner, but if someone blows the Brewers' offer away, like the Yankees did with CC and the Angels did with Pujols, then it will certainly have a lot to do with money. Plus the sad truth about baseball is that often the team with the most money also has the best chance of being a winner.

 

WITH Greinke...again, I've thrown this out there a dozen times, but could you imagine the potential in 2 years? Greinke, Gallardo, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley as your starting 5?

 

I agree that would be nice, but it's not the only nice option. Imagine if we were to trade some of our "chips" for a great young SS, and some top young SPs who could step right into the rotation this season and be ready to shine in the coming years. I'm just throwing names out here, and it may or may not be realistic, but what if we have something like Yo, Marcum, {Eovaldi/Delgado-type}, Wolf, Peralta in the rotation next year with Lucroy, Gamel, Weeks, {Profar/Machado-type}, Ramirez, Braun, Schafer/Gomez/Aoki, Gindl in the field?

 

There are a lot of ways to remain good. I just think the worst-case scenario this season is to trade prospects to "buy" this season, miss the playoffs and lose Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and maybe Wolf to free agency when the season's over.

 

 

 

Well my opinion would certainly be changed if we could snag a guy like Profar or Machado(the top remaining prsopect I believe from the top 100 list) or Profar who has to be among the top 3-4 at worst, giving us a Castro type SS for the next 6 years.

 

I just don't believe that's realistic. I mean...I guess with the Rangers it's possible. They have the money to sign Greinke and they obviously had the biggest need we have. And we could expand the trade and trade away a Greinke/Hart and perhaps another arm like K-Rod while paying his salary for Profar and Martin Perez with the stipulation that the Rangers are allowed to get a 3 day negotiating window to sign Greinke.

 

But even there, how realistic is that? They've got Hamilton to worry about this off-season...though Hart could replace him with all the offense they've got. And I don't know who the Rangers backup Catcher is, but I'd even throw in Kottaras to get that type of haul in return.

 

But is Greinke/Hart/K-Rod(+6 million or whatever)+Kottaras enough to get Profar and Martin Perez back? Not sure. The Rangers are desperate to win and Greinke would move to the front of that rotation, but even with all the money they've got...there is a limit.

 

And I totally throw Machado out of the equation. Great idea, but you usually don't trade away a budding superstar when you're the O's. They have no reason to trade for the players we have other than Braun or Gallardo and why would we trade either? Maybe if Machado was off to a Starlin Castro start Braun could even be discussed, but even then you're talking(IMO) about a guy like Bundey and Machado or something absurd that's video game like.

 

 

 

I just want ONE extreme or the other. Not lose Greinke and keep spending 100+ million, likely 110-115 and still be a 80 win team. If we lose Greinke, I'd honestly make NO player untouchable. The haul you could get for a Braun could be franchise changing. Same with Gallardo. Blow it all up. Move Hart, Weeks(if he bounces back, otherwise wait till next year as I just don't believe he's NOT a good player anymore), Axford, and throw everyone out there. We could play our cards right and have as many as 10-12 top 100 prospects coming into next year and many of them would be in the top 25.

 

But of course the FO would never go for that and never even consider that as our attendance would dwindle to probably about 1.8-2.0 million. But at least we'd cash in at the height of many of our players worth. Though trading Braun would rip a big chunk of my heart out of me and it may lose a lot of Brewers fans for the long term future.

[Dollarbill13]

I just want ONE extreme or the other. Not lose Greinke and keep spending 100+ million, likely 110-115 and still be a 80 win team. If we lose Greinke, I'd honestly make NO player untouchable. The haul you could get for a Braun could be franchise changing. Same with Gallardo. Blow it all up. Move Hart, Weeks(if he bounces back, otherwise wait till next year as I just don't believe he's NOT a good player anymore), Axford, and throw everyone out there. We could play our cards right and have as many as 10-12 top 100 prospects coming into next year and many of them would be in the top 25.

 

But of course the FO would never go for that and never even consider that as our attendance would dwindle to probably about 1.8-2.0 million. But at least we'd cash in at the height of many of our players worth. Though trading Braun would rip a big chunk of my heart out of me and it may lose a lot of Brewers fans for the long term future.

 

Well I'd make Braun untouchable because having a guy like that locked up at a reasonable price makes his value more than any team could reasonably offer. At this point, I just want to build around Braun and Greinke. Greinke has shown himself to be durable as long as he doesn't get hurt. I'd be fine with giving him a Matt Cain contract right now and then rebuild by trading the rest of the guys. It might mean we have a down year in 2013 but with our SP depth in the minors and the haul that we'd get from Hart & Weeks, we should be back to competing in 2014.

[FVBrewerFan]

First, great discussion here. Really well thought out comments. I think you're overestimating Greinke if you want to completely blow-up the team if you lose him. He was good last year, not so good in the playoffs. Now he's looking like his Cy Young year. Could it be that it's his contract year? If you could guarantee he would pitch like this for the next 5 years, sure i may consider breaking the bank. Fact is, he hasn't consistently been a stud ace pitcher. And if he keeps pitching like it this year, he's going to be paid like one. With the added WC, you add teams willing to throw a ton of money around. Nationals, Orioles, Blue Jays to name a few. That's in addition to teams with deep pockets always looking to improve the rotation. Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, etc.

 

As we learned from Fielder, even without a lot of competition the price can sky-rocket. I really believe Greinke's deal will be substantially bigger than some of you are thinking. Brewers have a new TV contract? That's nice, but other teams do too, or will have their contract coming up soon. All that does is keep the Brewers where they are in the pecking order. Which is fine, but that's what it is.

 

So blow it up if Greinke leaves? Why? They could be just as competitive (if not more) without him. Look at what the Brewers gave up to get him. You would need to demand a top..and i mean TOP prospect at the AA/AAA level and a couple more guys that are true prospects. The top prospect would play in 2013. You can trade KRod late this year and get a solid prospect. Gamel and Gonzalez are back. You can afford a #2 type starter. You have tradeable pieces in Hart, Weeks, Ramirez, etc. Lots of ways to improve the overall roster.

 

I'm all in favor of the "all in" concept. I just don't think signing Greinke is all in. Now if Mark A woke up one day and decided to create a window of 4 years where he'll spend $150MM each year.....let's do it. But this "mostly in" approach isn't working anymore.

[endaround]

It's not just Greinke, it's Greinke and Marcum. Losing both could easily push the team to below .500 talent since rookies tend to take time to adjust. That means you should probably move Hart is his last year because no reason to keep him around on a 78 win team. Now you're at 75-76 wins and its pretty much move what players over 30 you can.

[reillymcshane]

 

How do you argue that Thornburg is 2 maybe 3 years away? He's dominating in AA right now. Players regularily jump from AA to the big leagues, so to suggest he's even 2, much less 3 years away is absurd.

 

And Jungman and Bradley could both easily end up in AA this year putting them in play for next year.

 

Yes, i'm 'absurd' believing a guy with 8 minor league starts in AA, and two guys at HiA ball are probably 2-3 years away from contributing at the major league level.

 

Could one or more secure a spot on next year's team? Sure. The Brewers often move pitchers directly from AA to the majors. Oh, wait... never mind.

 

Seriously, it could happen. But there are so many reasons it WON'T. From injuries, to the Brewers history of how they develop players, to the simple fact that guys struggle at some point.

 

And just because a guy makes the team doesn't make him any good. Every level is an adjustment - none bigger than MLB.

 

Which is also ignoring that we've got out TOP pitching prospect in Peralta ready to go and waiting for the next phone call, a pitcher with upper 90's stuff who gets GO's.

 

I guess the entire line where I pointed out Peralta could help us beginning this year equals ignoring him.

 

Overall I just think you're superimposing your own belief system for his.

 

No, I'm projecting what most scouting reports have portrayed our system to be like. I wish we had five top 20 prospects. I wish they were all at AAA. I wish no one had hosest concerns about any of our guys. But that isn't the case.

 

"He knows that these players are this far away,"(something that absolutely nobody knows) and that we don't have any impact players(I doubt he decides where he's going based on the top 100 prospect list) and we do have some very good offensive players.

 

I believe he'll base his decision very heavily on how well he thinks a team is going to do. People who have known him - players, coaches, writers - have stated how important winning is to him. He's an idiot to not look at the organization from top to bottom. Do I know that for sure? No. No one knows the exact things he'll do. But based on past actions (such as wanting to leave KC and rejecting the trade to the Nats), he's not interested in a rebuilding program.

 

To say we have 'very good offensive players' in our minor league system is simply wrong. We do not. We have some potential major league players. Are they 'very good'? No. Again, basing on how most scouts see our minor league hitters, we have role players. Maybe average starter types. Doesn't mean one can't develop, but right now, we don't have that.

 

At the major league level we have Braun, Weeks, A-Ram, Hart. Weeks and A-Ram are struggling. Hart is scheduled to leave after 2013. Maybe Lucroy continues to hit and we'll look at him as special. But that's it.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly people forget about a player and write them off after a short period of time of struggles such as Weeks and company.

 

Absolutely right here. There are lots of great reasons Rickie will be return to form. Totally agree.

 

But if Greinke IS this guru of the minor leagues he professes, he'll see we've got some pretty good young OF'ers, and defensive upgrades in the minors.

 

The Brewers, in my opinion, and I believe the opinion of most scouts, do not have any impact bats in the upper minors. I don't even know there's one in the lower minors. We have plenty of guys that can be role players. Perhaps even start. But I doubt there are many scouts who consider our guys anything more than average at best. It's not bad to produce role players. They are essential. But there's nothing beyond that.

 

It's YOUR view that Aram isn't a good player moving forward when he's shown almost no signs over the last several years that he's a viable middle of the order hitter,and he's not exactly 40 years old.

 

No, I did not say Aram isn't a good player. He is having a bad year so far. He will be 34 next month. Not old. But not young for a baseball player. He had a very good 2011, so it's unlikely he continues to hit like he has this year. But it's not unheard of for a player like him to decline - and decline quickly. Aram is a notorious slow starter. He's in a new city. Personally, I think with time that he'll rebound. He's on pace for almost 50 doubles (and only 8 or 9 HR). Some of those doubles are going to start turning into HR.

 

But if he has a bad year, it's pretty hard for any player not to look at him and wonder if he can rebound.

 

Weeks is in the midst of the worst slump of his career and still has an OBP around .300. If Greinke is in tune with everything as you seem to think, I'm guessing that'll play a role.

 

Yep.

 

Not to mention, Greinke's also made it known(actually made it known, not us gleaning his opinion from almost nothing) that he prefers the smaller market at times throughout the trading process. So where are the small market teams that have the upside the Brewers do with Greinke on other teams?

 

The Pirates? The Royals? They're possible I suppose, they should have some money to spend. I don't doubt there will be a lot of teams that will show interest, but I think in the end the Brewers will have the money to sign him and have to get it done, and I suspect Mark A will also want to. I don't care if we're paying him 1 million a year until he's 72 like we need to sign him above all other moves we've made or are likely to make in the near future.

 

I think Greinke is the linchpin for competing over the next few years. I'm just saying that it's not all about money. If things don't go right for the Crew, it will be tough.

 

As for Zack's preferences - I know he likes Milwaukee. He liked KC too - said he'd be open to going back there. He wants to be comfortable. Whether it's Milwaukee or wherever - he's going to make his money. We'll all pay him. It's just where he, ultimately, wants to be.

 

This is all aside from the fact that I don't understand why exactly you think Greinke has all this insight into the downside of the Brewers, but none of the upside, including increasing revenues and a team coming off a NLCS game 6 loss to the Cardinals just one year ago.

 

Again, read the entire post. For 2012 and 13, the upside available is from slumping players (A-Ram, Weeks, Nyjer, Ax, Veras, K-Rod) rebounding and producing like 2011. If those guys start producing, we are going to be pretty decent. We can get back into the playoff race. We do that and he's going to feel a lot better about 2013. Will and when we rebound is the question. I pray and hope it's soon.

 

So I doubt he looks at the Brewers as a team that can't win considering that he was IN contract talks until Matt Cain signed(suggesting you're 180 degrees off here), and we have won, they won last year after starting off in a similar fashion.

 

But will we win this year? I hope so. I think it's critical to keep Zack. But if things go poorly this year, it hurts us a lot because it makes 2013 pretty bleak to a guy who hates losing.

 

Perhaps we were 'in' discussions with Zack on a contract. How far along, no one really knows. How serious they were, no one but Zack knows.

 

Bottom line is that Zack Greinke wants to win. Our current team can do that, but guys have to start producing like they have done in the past. If we win in 2012, we can win in 2013 - even with losing guys like K-Rod, Wolf and Marcum. If we win in 2012, and 2013 looks more like a reload year than a rebuild year, I think that will help us get Zack to come back long term in Milwaukee.

 

That's just my absurd opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

I believe Greinke wants to win. In fact, I think most MLB players who have been around for at least a few years start thinking more about a ring. Thing is, there are a ton of teams that can make the claim they're in position to win, or are on the road there.

 

So then it comes down to money, as it almost always does. Would Greinke give the Brewers a home town discount? (And that's really the question I think you're addressing.) Or even stay with the Brewers if they match any offer? We obviously don't know, but I would guess yes.

 

I just don't know if the Brewers would match any offer (or come close enough) to keep him. And if the bidding war gets crazy (which I think it will) I think as much as it hurts, you have to bow out. For the same reasons they let Sabathia and Fielder walk. Yes, I understand his contract won't be in the Feilder range, but close enough that the same principles apply. That is, you can't tie up 25% of your salary with one player.

[topper09er]

The ONLY-THING I'm saying is that this season Gomez has looked different. He's had a different approach and changed the way he approaches his at bats.

 

No he hasn't, he has 1 walk in 54 PAs, he is the same player as ever who has had some hits fall early in the year. He was and is a free swinger who will never be above average with the bat. Saying, he does still have value

[HiAndTight]

The ONLY-THING I'm saying is that this season Gomez has looked different. He's had a different approach and changed the way he approaches his at bats.

 

No he hasn't, he has 1 walk in 54 PAs, he is the same player as ever who has had some hits fall early in the year. He was and is a free swinger who will never be above average with the bat. Saying, he does still have value

 

 

Again, I'm still LOVING the way people talk down and declare that something "NEVER," will happen with a 26 year old.

 

Thank you Obi-won for your undeniable look into the future. But again, lets just wonder if it's POSSIBLE that I'm not talking about the walks(which I don't believe I've brought up once) and that I'm simply talking about him not swinging at terrible pitchers early on in the count, working himself into an 1-2 count or whatever it may be and then flailing away at the next pitch.

 

He HAS improved a great deal at that, and while I've been adamant about not using stats thus far THIS season, you seem inclined to do so.

 

At some point people need to realize that baseball game, at least baseball played over one month isn't told on a spreadsheet. If you compare his approach this year compared to last year when he was hitting the ball well for short stretches and it's different. He'll never walk a lot, nobody has said he will.

 

But if WE MUST use stats instead of watching the actual games and put forth an actual counter argument, I don't recall who it was, but he already showed how Gomez is swinging at balls out of the zone a lot better and making better contact within the zone. The exact point I'm making.

 

To expand on THAT, the point I'm almost making is that he doesn't need to be a good hitter. Just a league average hitter and with his base running and defense, and ability to hit with some power makes him a very valuable player.

 

But I see you've skipped over every single point that's been made, declared nothing will ever change and that in a 54 AB sample size think pointing out stats is useful. His numbers haven't even been of significant consequence to me at this point, it's been about how he's approaching his at bat.

 

 

And I realize it's tough with his incredibly terrible track record, and I'm in no way saying anything will or WON'T happen as an absolute fact(I wouldn't pretend to be so insightful as to be able to make a definitive statement as to what a 26 year old supremely talented kid WILL or will NOT do.)

[HiAndTight]

I just want ONE extreme or the other. Not lose Greinke and keep spending 100+ million, likely 110-115 and still be a 80 win team. If we lose Greinke, I'd honestly make NO player untouchable. The haul you could get for a Braun could be franchise changing. Same with Gallardo. Blow it all up. Move Hart, Weeks(if he bounces back, otherwise wait till next year as I just don't believe he's NOT a good player anymore), Axford, and throw everyone out there. We could play our cards right and have as many as 10-12 top 100 prospects coming into next year and many of them would be in the top 25.

 

But of course the FO would never go for that and never even consider that as our attendance would dwindle to probably about 1.8-2.0 million. But at least we'd cash in at the height of many of our players worth. Though trading Braun would rip a big chunk of my heart out of me and it may lose a lot of Brewers fans for the long term future.

 

Well I'd make Braun untouchable because having a guy like that locked up at a reasonable price makes his value more than any team could reasonably offer. At this point, I just want to build around Braun and Greinke. Greinke has shown himself to be durable as long as he doesn't get hurt. I'd be fine with giving him a Matt Cain contract right now and then rebuild by trading the rest of the guys. It might mean we have a down year in 2013 but with our SP depth in the minors and the haul that we'd get from Hart & Weeks, we should be back to competing in 2014.

 

 

Well in that case, I'd keep Gallardo. That doesn't sound like a bad idea either. But there needs to be a plan in place in which we are trying to legitimately WIN a World Series during Braun's prime years, and while that might sound obvious, the fact is, I think they're trying to stay as good as they can while still drawing as good as they can.

 

But paying what it takes to re-sign Greinke with Braun and Gallardo with the arms we have coming up and then tearing the rest down and rebuilding, more of a "remodeling," seems like maybe the best idea.

 

But I fear if they lose Greinke, Marcum will be signed, I don't trust his injury history or long term talent for that record and I think we'll slowly fall from a 90 win team(which I still think we're capable of being) to an 80 win team, to a 75 win team and so on before we have to cut salary because attendance has dropped.

[RockCoCougars]

Gomez is who he is. I don't see superstardom in his future, but based on his defensive prowess and speed alone he could be a very good everyday CF for a good team batting toward the bottom of the lineup. He's not a world beater at the plate, but he can do some good things and has a little pop. The problem as things stand with the Brewers is there are so many holes in the lineup right now, that his relative lack of development as a hitter is magnified. In large part, Gomez kind of represents the extreme of the type of hitters that the Brewers have (in a nutshell, feast or famine). The myriad of other options in CF along with his inability to stay healthy just throw more wrenches into the mix. Personally, I think that he still has more upside than any of the other options in CF, but I'm not sure if I want to give him a multi-year eight figure deal to find out if I'm right.

[monty57]

I like the thought of Gallardo / Greinke at the top of the rotation for years to come, but I think it's being idealized a bit in that if we sign Greinke we are a World Series team, but without him we're bottom feeders. What realistically would be the difference (record-wise) if we signed Marcum to 3/$33MM vs Greinke for 6/$120? Since his surgery, Marcum has pitched 195.1 innings with a 3.64 ERA, 165K/43BB in 2010 and 200.2 innings with a 3.54 ERA 158K/57BB last season. In seven starts this season, he's got 44IP, 3.07 ERA and 39K/16BB. For his career, he's a 3.73 ERA pitcher.

 

Greinke is a better pitcher, I get that, but it's not like there's that much difference between having Greinke and not Marcum vs having Marcum and not Greinke, all else remaining the same. I'd guess that over a season if they each pitched to their "norms," we might win an extra game or two with Greinke than we would with Marcum. Plus, with Marcum, we'd have a shorter-term deal (less risk) and have extra money to upgrade elsewhere. Maybe that extra win would be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but I don't think it's worth "breaking the bank" and potentially crippling the franchise over if he gets hurt or stinks. It's certainly not the difference between being a World Series contender vs breaking up the entire team and starting over.