Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[HiAndTight]

H&T - using the pitchFX numbers, his O-Swing% is only 22.6 this season (35.7 career) and his z-swing% is 76.3% this season compared to 67.7% career. So, it seems that so far he has been swinging at better pitches.

 

 

Thank you. That's interesting to know, but I do also realize it's statistically irrelevant at this point.

 

I understand that. It aligns with what I've seen, but the bottom line is that he's simply looked better. If you were scouting a player, and all you had to go on was this year, you wouldn't say he's got great plate discipline, but you wouldn't say it's a joke like it's been in the past.

 

 

And while I again realize I'm probably alone on this board or in the vast minority, I'm not saying he's turned any corner or he will be anything. Just that I'm somewhat confident he could still develop and not because of a hot streak, but because of how he's actually playing the game. That's all. Nice to see stats back that up, but it's obviously the middle of May and he's platooned for a good part of that.

 

But even vs righties, he's LOOKED much better.

 

And lets face it, he has the bat speed, he has all 5 tools...well, 4 at least. Cannon for an arm, best speed in the league, great bat speed, a huge arm, and if he shows any sort that 5th tool...again, 5 war potential still IMO.

[HiAndTight]

With our depth at CF, I don't see the point in spending money to re-sign Gomez (or Nyjer Morgan, for that matter).

 

Well, I'm not talking about giving him Hart or Weeks type money. I'd say if he can put together a decent year this year, I'd give him maybe 4 years 16 million or something. And nobody will promise him a starting job.

 

He'll always have value defensively. And we've got him for a little while longer.

 

If he does become a 5 war player, yeah, I wouldn't re-sign him, but he's not right now. Again, he's still worth a couple million the player he's been.

[HiAndTight]

We need to resign Greinke. He's our #1, and if we want to compete, we need a #1. He's pitching much better on the road.

 

 

 

Absolutely. Not just the #1 priority the Brewers face this year, this is the top priority they've faced in about 10 years.

[DHonks]

Gomez and Morgan are nice players, neither is the kind you build around. I'm not as excited about Schafer as many, as I preferred Komatsu's skill set.

 

While I'm intrigued by Gennett, I'm also equally intrigued by Nick Shaw. Scooter has more power, but Shaw has the OBP skills. I also assume he has more defensive value since he's played a bunch of times at SS this year.

 

I really hope Caleb Gindl returns to his usual numbers or improves on them, because he could be a great option in CF or RF.

[HiAndTight]

Once again, nobody is talking about building AROUND Gomez. I'm talking about building around Greinke, Yo, Braun, Lucroy and then the plethora of young pitchers we've got and guys like Gamel, Green, Schafer, and I'm simply saying lets not write Gomez off quite yet as a guy who can't be a key player.

[rluzinski]

Whether a player looks good in 54 PA or has had good results in 54 PA, there is no real difference. I have seen many terrible hitters look pretty good for the first month of the season, as has anyone who watches a lot of baseball. The instinct is to get pretty excited if he plays for your team, but the majority of the time, reality hits soon enough,

 

Gomez is a great defender and a decent base runner... that is it right now. He has value but it has nothing to do with his stick. I agree that he is young enough to still make some strides offensively but the notion he could be a 5 WAR player... sorry.

[HiAndTight]

Whether a player looks good in 54 PA or has had good results in 54 PA, there is no real difference. I have seen many terrible hitters look pretty good for the first month of the season, as has anyone who watches a lot of baseball. The instinct is to get pretty excited if he plays for your team, but the majority of the time, reality hits soon enough,

 

Gomez is a great defender and a decent base runner... that is it right now. He has value but it has nothing to do with his stick. I agree that he is young enough to still make some strides offensively but the notion he could be a 5 WAR player... sorry.

 

 

I couldn't possibly disagree more. I'm not any more encouraged about Kottaras as a catcher as I was coming into the season.

 

And it has nothing to do with him being on my team, it has to do with a fundamental change in a short period of time as to how he approaches the ball.

 

I do appreciate your definitive declaration that he can't possibly turn into a 5 war player. [sarcasm]I'm quite certain a 26 year old player with incredible pure tools has never been a late bloomer and put it together later on than expected.[/sarcasm]

 

The, "sorry," part is beyond condescending.

 

I'm guessing a few years ago you'd have "informed me," with the same condescension that Nelson Cruz(after being put on waivers) would never become a 5 WAR player. Which he did in just 108 games.

 

And it wouldn't take much for Gomez. Again, I'm guessing if he was an everyday player and put up a .285/.330 line with his power potential and SB ability to go on top of his elite CF play, that would place him at a 4-5 WAR player....sorry.

[HiAndTight]

Anyway, the point of this thread isn't about Gomez. I wasn't advocating building around Gomez, and I wasn't declaring he WOULD be a 5 war player. Simply pointing out his improved approach this year which has been rather profound to me, not just a hot streak as I'm not looking at his numbers this early in the year, but rather his approach and the way he's actually waiting to get his pitches.

 

 

What's far more important is the Greinke discussion. So lets steer it back that way. It'll take quite a few major surprises in order for us to make up for his loss. Even if TT ends up being as good as Greinke, highly unlikely, but even if he does, you still need another guy to replace Marcum's production and then a third guy to replace Wolf's.

 

I feel much better about our young guys replacing Marcum and Wolf obviously and building a staff around two guys who are better bets than most to stay healthy and become very good pitchers for a long time than most.

 

I'd rather bet the house and give Greinke twice as much as Marcum than make that smaller, safer bet and give Marcum 4 years 50 million or whatever it is he may get. Marcum doesn't have the stuff obviously, and he is a much higher injury risk.

[rluzinski]

Whether a player looks good in 54 PA or has had good results in 54 PA, there is no real difference. I have seen many terrible hitters look pretty good for the first month of the season, as has anyone who watches a lot of baseball. The instinct is to get pretty excited if he plays for your team, but the majority of the time, reality hits soon enough,

 

Gomez is a great defender and a decent base runner... that is it right now. He has value but it has nothing to do with his stick. I agree that he is young enough to still make some strides offensively but the notion he could be a 5 WAR player... sorry.

 

 

I couldn't possibly disagree more. I'm not any more encouraged about Kottaras as a catcher as I was coming into the season.

 

And it has nothing to do with him being on my team, it has to do with a fundamental change in a short period of time as to how he approaches the ball.

 

I do appreciate your definitive declaration that he can't possibly turn into a 5 war player. [sarcasm]I'm quite certain a 26 year old player with incredible pure tools has never been a late bloomer and put it together later on than expected.[/sarcasm]

 

The, "sorry," part is beyond condescending.

 

I'm guessing a few years ago you'd have "informed me," with the same condescension that Nelson Cruz(after being put on waivers) would never become a 5 WAR player. Which he did in just 108 games.

 

And it wouldn't take much for Gomez. Again, I'm guessing if he was an everyday player and put up a .285/.330 line with his power potential and SB ability to go on top of his elite CF play, that would place him at a 4-5 WAR player....sorry.

 

I honestly wasn't trying to be condescending nor was I suggesting it is absolutely impossible that Gomez develops into a 5 WAR guy. Almost nothing has a 0% chance of occurring, after all. Despite his young age, it simply remains extremely unlikely. Again, around mid May, we read SO many stories about how previously bad hitters have made a fundamental change in their approach, only to find most go right back to being bad. I hope Gomez is the exception but I doubt it. You can search for anecdotal evidence to the contrary but that doesn't make it any more likely.

 

And your example of Cruz isn't a very good example, anyway (IMO, of course). He put up a 5 WAR season in 2010, sure. It was a great year. But there is a big difference between putting up a 5 WAR season and being a 5 WAR player. He followed that up his great 2010 season with an average 2011 season and hasn't done a whole lot this year, yet, either. He's an above average player no doubt but I don't know if anyone is projecting him to be a 5 WAR guy going forward. There simply aren't that many players out there that do.

 

I've always felt that Gomez had value to the Brewers but it has never had anything to do with his bat. This is the third year in a row that I've heard he may have turned the corner offensively, though. I just don't think pure athleticism translates into good hitting as much as people think it should.

[Baldkin]

His OPS dropped 270 points in a weeks worth of games. Is it really hard to fathom that he was just hot?

[Ennder]

It takes more than a full season of stats to make most baseball stats meaningful, there is no way to know what we have with any player based on this pathetically small sample of 2012.

[Invader3K]

Jon Heyman has a new piece up about Greinke and the Brewers this morning:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19057818/brewers-and-greinke-love-each-other-but-itll-be-tough-to-keep-him-in-milwaukee

 

"It's a good organization,'' Greinke said. "Good owner. Good guys in management. Good guys in the clubhouse. Really good, really good.''

 

Everyone's good here.

 

The Brewers' people are great. So is Grienke.

 

They're all fine people. I just wouldn't bet too much on all these fine people getting together on a new $100-million-plus contract.

[monty57]

I kind of look at the Greinke situation this way:

 

Imagine you just got a 20% raise and decide that you want to spend that money on a piece of art you saw at an auction. However, when you get to the auction, you see Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Mark Zuckerberg there, and they all want the same piece of art as you. It's great that you got a 20% raise, but you still have no chance of buying that piece of art when the billionaires start their bidding.

 

If we were going to extend him, our chance would have been the moment we traded for him. He is now less than a season from free agency, he's seeing huge contracts being thrown around, and he's apparently willing to play out the season to free agency, when he will probably get a contract bigger than Cain's. If the Brewers say, "We're willing to offer 5 years / $116MM," someone like the Yankees will say "Okay, we'll do 6 years, $140MM." Greinke knows he'll be the only fish in the FA SP pond this offseason, and he knows he will make out like a bandit.

 

I'd love to have Greinke and Gallardo as our #1/2 guys for the next few seasons, but the odds of it happening seem pretty slim. We can do like we did with Sabathia and sit around hoping that he'll choose us, leaving us scrambling for answers when he goes elsewhere, or (since he's already "walked away from the table") we can start working on "Plan B" now. If Marcum was being honest that he really would like to stay, I'd try to extend him 2-3 years, so at least we'd have Yo, Marcum and Wolf under control next year, with Narveson as a big question mark. If we're still down in the standings in a month, and Greinke hasn't had a big change of heart about extending with us, we could get a big haul back in trade for Greinke if he continues pitching the way he has so far this season.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't see them being able/willing to sign Greinke. Not that different from Sabathia and Fielder, just hard for the Brewers to spend 25% of their salary on one player.

 

Frankly, if they are willing to do this they should have paid Sabathia. Then they could have still swung the same trade for either Marcum or Greinke. For a couple years they could have had Sabathia/Greinke/Yo. (Plus still have Lawrie.) They would have been a legit WS contender with those guys at the top. We always hear about Mark A. going "all in" when he never really has. He's gone "all in" as much as he's able/willing to spend.

 

I know it's OT a bit thinking of what could have been. But my point is why sign Greinke long term now? Call it what you wiill, but this is rebuilding time. Not that the brewers can't field a competitive team while they're rebuilding, but even with Greinke I don't consider them to be a WS contender for a couple years.

 

I would sign Marcum and Wolf, and use the rest of the money elsewhere. Then cross your fingers that TT, Peralta, Bradley...somebody...anybody can be a top of the rotation type starter within the next 2-3 years. THEN you can go out and buy another stud pitcher and make a run.

[pete]

I can't point to actual copy and really all he is doing is stating the obvious, but I get the feeling Heyman is hoping for a juicy off season drama.

 

Maybe its my imagination, but his first story seemed like "you're as good as Cain, don't sign with the Brewers." This one seems like, "forget about them Zach - you're going to be RICH... VERY RICH."

 

I love Prince, but speaking only for myself, I am glad they didn't sign him for 6/120.

[RockCoCougars]

But my point is why sign Greinke long term now? Call it what you wiill, but this is rebuilding time. Not that the brewers can't field a competitive team while they're rebuilding, but even with Greinke I don't consider them to be a WS contender for a couple years.

 

They are currently 5 games back in a bad division so I'm not sure that I would concede the season just yet. As for being a WS contender, the Cards were steaming garbage for about 4 and a half months last season, yet they won it all. Get hot at the right time and you can make a big time run, especially with pitching.

 

Bottom line, it's pretty defeatist to concede that you cannot compete to keep your own talent. Especially with the attendance boom that the Brewers have enjoyed for the past several seasons. To me if the Brewers don't sign Grienke and give us the same excuses, why bother? It's trendy to like the Brewers now, but one really bad season, or a few that are mediocre and the bandwagon fans will all jump off. In the 80's, it took only a few years for attendance to bottom out after the boom of 82/83, same thing during the mid/late 90's. This is not an aging team, and most of the pieces are already in place to compete. Attanasio would be best served to make an honest effort to keep those pieces in place.

[owbc]

Greinke's gone after 2012. No point in getting into the Prince Fielder mentality when reality is staring us right in the face. The Brewers would have to offer a Cain-like extension and Greinke may do even better than that on the open market. There are lots of losers in the Fielder/Pujols auction that are going to drive up the price. We all know the value of a #1 starter, but how many years of a #1 starter would we be paying for? You never know which starters will continue to have success after they start losing velocity.

 

The more pertinent question is whether you trade him in July or let him walk. I think this is a perfect year to make the deadline deal if they can pick up some decent prospects. It's a perfect year to do it because of the high volume of tickets already sold and the legitimate excuse that injuries have made it impossible to compete. In 2011 it made sense to go for it since that roster had a legitimate shot at the World Series. This year, even a NLCS repeat is a long shot at best. These are not the 2011 Cardinals. It would be nice to get some high-A to AA hitters to go along with those promising young pitchers.

[FVBrewerFan]

But my point is why sign Greinke long term now? Call it what you wiill, but this is rebuilding time. Not that the brewers can't field a competitive team while they're rebuilding, but even with Greinke I don't consider them to be a WS contender for a couple years.

 

Bottom line, it's pretty defeatist to concede that you cannot compete to keep your own talent.

 

You call it defeatist, I call it reality. The Brewers can't compete to keep their own talent. Was it defeatist not to make a legitimate effort to re-sign Sabathia or Fielder? Because we both know a serious offer was not made in either case.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think this is a perfect year to make the deadline deal if they can pick up some decent prospects.

 

Agree with everything you said, except for this. If they deal Greinke- especially if it's earlier (July) they better get more than "decent" prospects.

[RockCoCougars]

But my point is why sign Greinke long term now? Call it what you wiill, but this is rebuilding time. Not that the brewers can't field a competitive team while they're rebuilding, but even with Greinke I don't consider them to be a WS contender for a couple years.

 

Bottom line, it's pretty defeatist to concede that you cannot compete to keep your own talent.

 

You call it defeatist, I call it reality. The Brewers can't compete to keep their own talent. Was it defeatist not to make a legitimate effort to re-sign Sabathia or Fielder? Because we both know a serious offer was not made in either case.

 

It is defeatist to me. This team is currently fielding a payroll in the range of $100 million, a good chunk of which has been fueled by the attendance boom. There is no way that they are losing money either. If that's the case, and they are getting more TV money next year, there is no reason whatsoever that they should not be able to make a realistic offer to Greinke. I get the feeling that they have lowballed him thus far. Greinke is not going to get a contract in the Pujols/Fielder range. No one will give a pitcher more than 6 years. At most, he will get something like Cain got- maybe 20% or so more at the extreme, the Brewers can afford that.

 

Bottom line, if the Brewers have two ace quality pitchers, they should be in the mix for the next several years. If they let Greinke walk and then resign Marcum for much cheaper, I'm not going to be sold the bill of goods that their PR machine churns out over the winter, because it's a profit maximizing move, not a solid baseball one. In that event, Attanasio had better get his bean counters out doing a marginal revenue analysis based on an attendance drop in the event of a 65 win season.

[pete]

I pretty much agree with everthing that RCC said in post #295. I wish there was a way I could just give a thumbs up to a post - there isn't is there?

 

As to selling before the deadline - the team would have a chance to get a huge haul especially given they have a great pitcher and a closer in a year with all sorts of closer problems plus other parts. But realistically, if the team isn't further back than the Cards were last season, I'd say there is virtually no chance Melvin does it. I'd say its far more likely that he ships off prospects in an overpay for a mediocre veteran or two.

[FVBrewerFan]

You still seem to be careful with your wording. If the Brewers make a "reasonable" offer that won't be good enough. The offer to Sabathia was reasonable. So, the question really is do you think the Brewers should do whatever is necessary to sign Greinke or not?

 

Because talk about PR, it would be nothing but a PR move to rest on "we made a reasonable offer." It's a zero-sum game, either you do what it takes to sign him or you don't. We don't know what the price will be, but if he keeps pitching like this, he will get paid more than you think.

 

Finally, even if they could pull off this miracle they can't sign Marcum or Wolf. So your rotation to start the season is? Greinke, Yo, Estrada, Peralta, and Fiers? Or something close to that? Sign Marcum and you can still afford a middle of the rotation type of guy and still have a legit 1-5 rotation. Plus whatever you get for dealing Greinke, KRod, or anyone else you can deal. That leaves you with a more balanced roster, and not dependent on one guy staying healthy and dominant at the same time. I don't think that's PR at all, just a wise use of the limited dollars you have.

[Madtown343]

If I sign Grienke the first move is to trade Hart and hope better defense and an average bat in RF is what you get from gindl in 2012.

[pete]

Marcum isn't going to be cheap either. He wanted top dollar in arbitration. Wolf may be over the hill. Mid rotation guys aren't cheap. I'd guess Marcum plus the next Wolf will cost as much or more than Greinke.

 

 

I wonder if Marcum has gone through the computerized pitching mechanics evaluation, but his injury risk would have to be part of the formula.

 

Are they going to deal players at the deadline? That just seems highly unlikely unless they are waaaaay back. That would be a game (strategy) changer, but in all likelihood they stand pat or are buyers.

[phnxcrew]

IMO greinke is different from Sabathia or Prince. Everybody knew (or should have) that there was no hope in keeping prince from the point that he declined any extension talks a few years back. CC loved Milwaukee but again... he was clearly the best starting pitcher on the market for years and had no reservations about pitching on the big stage. Now at the same time you might suggest that Greinke's anxiety disorder is overplayed but bottom line is he is one strange dude. I would fully support a "whatever it takes" attitude like the Giants had with Cain and like the Phillies have had (well, with everybody it seems). As others have pointed out with greinke/ gallardo and our young guys developing we're a legit central contender for some time. Nobody looks to be a juggernaut in the near future.