Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....

[TheCrew07]

Young guys typically can't throw 200+ innings or even close during their first year in the big leagues. Losing guys like Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with youngsters will leave a lot of innings to cover and put strain on a bullpen.

 

While I understand your point of view, what pitcher do we have that consistently pitches into the 7th? So from that point of view does it matter what starting pitcher we put out there from a bullpen standpoint? Fiers isn't exactly young, he's 27, he's reached physical maturity. Peralta and Thornburg are right at that point where they are physically peaking, both are 23 this year.

 

It is impossible for a minor league to season to completely prepare pitchers for the rigors of a 200+ inning season, but all 3 pitchers should be on track for an easy 185-190 innings next year. Peralta will put up his 3rd consecutive 1501P+ season, Fiers and Thornburg will reach that plateau this year. It just extremely difficult to get more than 160 innings in a minor league season.

[RWeeksFan23]

What a brilliant start tonight by the guy who most people on here think should be brought back for big bucks next season (When he'll be another year older at that)

[PrinceEatMeat]

What a brilliant start tonight by the guy who most people on here think should be brought back for big bucks next season (When he'll be another year older at that)

 

Calm down. This happened last year and he went on to have a good season. Everyone has a bad start from time to time. He'll bounce back and be solid again. Even so, me and the other people saying that are based on assuming he has another good year this year. If he doesn't, we obviously wouldn't want him back. That's pretty obvious. I'm so sick of people judging our pitchers one week into the season. It's ridiculous.

[CheezWizHed]

What a brilliant start tonight by the guy who most people on here think should be brought back for big bucks next season (When he'll be another year older at that)

 

[sarcasm]As will Gallardo, Marcum and Grienke. Lets get rid of all the bums due to one bad night! (which they've all had)[/sarcasm]

[RWeeksFan23]

Are Gallardo, Marcum, and Greinke in their mid-30s? And typically have a better ERA than peripheral stats indicating a little bit of luck?

[3and2Fastball]

I still think it all comes down to Zack wondering how good this team is going to be over the next few years. He likes Milwaukee and organization. That's a big plus. But winning is crucial to Zack. He doesn't want to get stuck in rebuilding mode. We need the team to have a good year. We need Gamel to do well. We need to stay relatively healthy. We need some prospects to step forward.

.

 

The prospects stepping forward thing might prove difficult with Melvin/Roenicke in charge. Prospects have to actually play in order to step forward. Why exactly is Travis Ishikawa on the roster? I guess Aoki is technically a rookie.

[Oldcity]

Are Gallardo, Marcum, and Greinke in their mid-30s? And typically have a better ERA than peripheral stats indicating a little bit of luck?

I actually do not understand where you're going with this.

[HiAndTight]

Absolutely. Expecting Peralta to replace Greinke in the first place is HIGHLY unlikely.

 

But I think if the Brewers want to keep their window open for the next 4-5 years, they have to sign Greinke and then use all their young pitchers to supplement their #1/#2 combo in Yo and Greinke.

 

Those two topping the rotation with Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers, Narveson, Bradley, Jungman in the next 2-3 years all being either ready, or knocking on the door could help us fill out a dominant rotation. In this scenario you're not asking these guys to step in early in their career and be #2 starters, you're simply asking them to step in and fill out the rotation.

 

And while Mark Attanasio continues to suggest that the Brewers COULD lose money, Forbes reported their 2011 income at 19.2 million dollars. That, the fact that they're ahead of last years pace for ticket sales, and they've raised ticket prices almost 10 pct AND they have 20 million dollars coming in additional TV revenue on top of a new radio deal that adds revenue(no idea how much though) and the Brewers seem to be doing just fine right now.

 

So to take a player like Greinke and raise his salary from 13.5 to lets say 21.5 has to be done IMO in order to keep a competitive team on the field.

 

Let Wolf and Marcum walk, replace them with Peralta and Fiers and possibly Thornburg if he continues to ascend. Bottom line, we have a farm system to round out a roster, we need to keep in place a core of players for them to round out. By the way, I also believe Mat Gamel will be a part of that core. Gallardo, Greinke, Braun, Weeks, Gamel, Hart and Axford. Luckily two of them will be cheap for a long time. Also luckily we've got a plethora of potential viable starting pitching options and fillers around them.

 

Basically, I think 1 Greinke+a Peralta is worth more than two Wolf type pitchers, and in more than just WAR. One has the potential to dominate the best when he's on, to win big post-season games, to be consistently counted on to save the pen, etc..etc...

 

And I still think we see the 2009 Greinke this season and moving forward(not quite as good obviously, but a guy who can consistently be under 3.00 ERA).

[MJLiverock]

Young guys typically can't throw 200+ innings or even close during their first year in the big leagues. Losing guys like Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with youngsters will leave a lot of innings to cover and put strain on a bullpen.

 

While I understand your point of view, what pitcher do we have that consistently pitches into the 7th? So from that point of view does it matter what starting pitcher we put out there from a bullpen standpoint? Fiers isn't exactly young, he's 27, he's reached physical maturity. Peralta and Thornburg are right at that point where they are physically peaking, both are 23 this year.

 

It is impossible for a minor league to season to completely prepare pitchers for the rigors of a 200+ inning season, but all 3 pitchers should be on track for an easy 185-190 innings next year. Peralta will put up his 3rd consecutive 1501P+ season, Fiers and Thornburg will reach that plateau this year. It just extremely difficult to get more than 160 innings in a minor league season.

 

I don't disagree with the difficulties in getting to 200 innings in the minors, nor would I even expect a guy to toss that many during the build up years. I was thinking back to teams shutting down guys like Jamie Garcia, Mike Leake, Phil Hughes, etc. as the seasons wore on an the innings built up.

 

Further tempering my expectations is the rememberance of the poo pooing that went on by some fans when the Brewers lost Sheets and Sabathia. (not saying you were one of those) It is really hard to replace above average pitching and to find guys that can pitch into the 7th or 8th. The cascade effect of having Looper, Davis, type pitchers on top of guys like Narveson, Wolf does impact the pen when 4/5 starters are lucking to get through 6 on many nights. I disagree with the opinion that pops up that losing Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with the types of guys the Brewers get in free agency for $10 MM and under per year will only result in a few games difference. The debacle pitching staffs of 2009 and 2010 are too fresh in my memory.

[TheCrew07]

I disagree with the opinion that pops up that losing Grienke and Marcum and replacing them with the types of guys the Brewers get in free agency for $10 MM and under per year will only result in a few games difference. The debacle pitching staffs of 2009 and 2010 are too fresh in my memory.

 

I agree that there is a cumulative effect on the bullpen, but people seem to think Greinke is Sheets, which he isn't. Greinke and Gallardo are pretty close to the same guy from an innings standpoint, both are high pitch count pitchers which rarely pitch through the 7th. Sheets was pretty good about giving the pen a night off here and there, or maybe only use a single reliever. That's just not the reality of our rotation, we have a bunch of 6-7 inning pitchers, which isn't bad given the quality of those innings. However if you can replace 6-7 with similar quality, then you haven't really lost anything.

 

I didn't exactly poo poo on losing those guys, but I don't sweat losing that kind of talent either because the Brewers will never be able to compete on years with the big boys. They can maybe match money on a short term contract but never years. I view it as forgone conclusion that those guys are going to walk and need to be replaced.

 

I've also never been an advocate of signing middling FA pitchers either, I'm just trying to say that we have some nice young arms coming and while some may fail like Parra, others will succeed like Yo and there's no reason to overstate the effect that losing Greinke would have. Our pitching may drop off some, maybe for as long as a year, but it will quickly rebound as the young players get experience. Most of TB's young pitchers were up and down as rookies and then blossomed in that second year (David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson), Wade Davis who was bumped to the pen by another young stud Matt Moore is the only guy who was pretty much just a 4.0 ERA type guy every year, and that's still awfully valuable. I think results along those lines with our top 4-5 pitchers is a pretty reasonable expectation. A Mike Fiers isn't on that same level talent wise, but I have a feeling he'll do okay in the rotation as a #4 or #5 until he hopefully gets bumped to the pen.

[MJLiverock]

I agree Crew that the team has some nice young arms coming up. I'll try not to get too much into the other thread of reload or blow up the team if Grienke and Marcum walk. I am hopeful of guys like Thornburg and the emergence of Nelson with the high draft picks and Peralta. I had never been real impressed with Nelson but he can develop into a ML starter even a back of the rotation guy he will have exceeded my expectations. I think my expectations are that if Grienke and Marcum walk I wouldn't think the team would be a playoff contender in 2013 and maybe not in 2014 if they go the young guy route with the pitching staff. Even stud guys like the Braves and Rays young pitchers have needed a year or two of seasoning before they really blossomed or could be counted on to anchor a rotation. I am not a fan of signing middling aging FA pitchers either, maybe one on a very short term deal if possible for the back end of the rotation but when Melvin starts thinking about these types being the #2 and #3 I get concerned.

[Mass Haas]

Narveson injury must give Greinke pause, right? Hard to fathom not locking up $90-$100M when you can. Take Weaver $, don't worry about Cain

[PrinceEatMeat]

Narveson injury must give Greinke pause, right? Hard to fathom not locking up $90-$100M when you can. Take Weaver $, don't worry about Cain

 

Yeah no kidding. Injuries with pitchers are pretty common. Not that that has been the case for Greinke, but still any pitcher has to look at Narveson's injury and say hey that could just as easily happen to me. If that happened to Greinke he'd lose a ton of money. Some guys just don't go the financial security route though. They just hold out for the big bucks.

[Dollarbill13]

Narveson injury must give Greinke pause, right? Hard to fathom not locking up $90-$100M when you can. Take Weaver $, don't worry about Cain

 

Yeah no kidding. Injuries with pitchers are pretty common. Not that that has been the case for Greinke, but still any pitcher has to look at Narveson's injury and say hey that could just as easily happen to me. If that happened to Greinke he'd lose a ton of money. Some guys just don't go the financial security route though. They just hold out for the big bucks.

 

Well he's already made about $40 million in his career so he should already have financial security.

[brettac1]

Athletes go broke all of the time. Just in the past few months, Mark Brunell and Warren Sapp come to mind. Antoine Walker just retired from the D-League after trying to keep playing after going broke. Every player should try and get every red cent they can, while they can.

[B2k1121]

Athletes go broke all of the time. Just in the past few months, Mark Brunell and Warren Sapp come to mind. Antoine Walker just retired from the D-League after trying to keep playing after going broke. Every player should try and get every red cent they can, while they can.

Or, spend/save like a reasonable human being making that much money should. They don't magically become broke.

[Team Canada]

Exactly, the problem isn't that they didn't make $5M or $20M more or whatever, it's that they were financially incompetent.

[brettac1]

A lot of guys go broke on "investments", not just by the stereotypical way of supporting their friends and families.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

The Brewers should not overpay for Greinke. There was a time when the Brewers had to overpay for quality players to play in Milwaukee, but now is not that time. Melvin should sign Greinke for below market value or move on. He's a higher maintenence player, and if he wants big market money then let him walk.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's a higher maintenence player

 

I don't believe this at all. I think this is closer to "100% myth" than "truth".

[MJLiverock]

A lot of guys go broke on "investments", not just by the stereotypical way of supporting their friends and families.

 

Because the feel the need to "invest" nightclubs, restaurants, which are notoriously bad choices with very high fail rates or because they invest in business run by old friends who really have no clue about what they are doing but hey anyone can be a real estate developer. Often times it seems they would be better off just not being greedy and make normal, liquid, investments with a plan and a reputable firm but instead they take high risks, use shady or unqualified people and get burned.

[PKBadger]

Because the feel the need to "invest" nightclubs, restaurants, which are notoriously bad choices with very high fail rates or because they invest in business run by old friends who really have no clue about what they are doing but hey anyone can be a real estate developer. Often times it seems they would be better off just not being greedy and make normal, liquid, investments with a plan and a reputable firm but instead they take high risks, use shady or unqualified people and get burned.

 

 

Agreed. These athletes that went broke obviously didn't go to Wu-Tang Financial, because GZA would have told them to "diversify yo bonds".

[MJLiverock]

Old Chappelle's Show reference, nice touch.

[adambr2]

Athletes go broke all of the time. Just in the past few months, Mark Brunell and Warren Sapp come to mind. Antoine Walker just retired from the D-League after trying to keep playing after going broke. Every player should try and get every red cent they can, while they can.

 

I don't think the lack of getting every red cent is why those athletes go bankrupt.

 

$50M in the hands of a wise individual who knows how to manage money will probably buy indefinite financial security for his entire family for generations.

 

$100M in the hands of someone who has no clue how to manage money will result in bankruptcy.

[RockCoCougars]

$100M in the hands of someone who has no clue how to manage money will result in bankruptcy.

 

Exactly. What I've never understood is why these guys feel the need to make 'business investments' anyway even though they should be already set for life. Isn't signing an eight figure contract enough? Why would you want the hassle of running a business or managing property after you retire when you could diversify with low risk investments and then just sit back and count your money while you are on your 365-day vacation?