How are "so called experts" picking the Brewers for 3rd Place?

[logan82]

I'm not sure the Cardinals were a 90 win talent team either though, it took a heroic run late in the season to sneak up to that 90 wins and it seemed pretty flukey. Kind of like the Rockies a few years back who followed it up with a huge dip in wins the next season.

The Cards also had a pretty poor streak before that. Really I would put the Brewers at about 90 and the Cards at 88ish last year. Not a 6 game difference. I do think we may be better this year than last. I think our upgrades at SS and 3B more than offset our downgrade at 1B. It is easy to forget just how bad McGehee was last year.

[rluzinski]

I usually go off Vegas odds and they have brewers W/L over/under placing them in 2nd. (84.5) ... Reds are 86.5.

 

Also the odds are the same for brewers/cards/reds on a futures bet for winning the central.

 

Exactly. Listen to the people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is. Everyone else is just talking.

[RightFieldCoder]

Baseball Prospectus has their Playoff Odds Report out now that the season has started. The Brewers have the second best odds of making the playoffs in the NL. Only the Cardinals have better odds.

[Invader3K]

I still don't get how the Cardinals aren't expected to take a big step back without Pujols this year, and having a very shaky rotation in terms of health.

[Hitman_Hart]

I still don't get how the Cardinals aren't expected to take a big step back without Pujols this year, and having a very shaky rotation in terms of health.

 

Never mind the fact that Lance Berkman played out of his mind last year, which is not likely to be repeated, and it is more likely that the Carlos Beltran that showed up in San Francisco at the deadline last year is the same one who will be playing OF for the Cardinals this season.

[Warning Track Power]

I still don't get how the Cardinals aren't expected to take a big step back without Pujols this year, and having a very shaky rotation in terms of health.

 

And they have a manager who has never managed before and they don't have Dave Duncan. I understand the talent is there with Berkman, Beltran and Furcal but these guys aren't 30 and this isn't 2005. I could understand the idea of the Cardinals potentially running away with the division if this were the case, but it is not. I think it is just as likely these guys will break down, like Carpenter already has, then to regain the form that made these guys all stars in the past.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's got to be the fact that they're the current World Champs - never mind that this team isn't close to being as potent without Pujols, their manager and their pitching coach.

 

They have talent, but between the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals, they have the most question marks when it comes to durability and projectibility. The Cards' best talent is largely past its prime, so it becomes a crapshoot to project how they perform as a team based on their age and injury risks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Keep in mind that sports journalism has evolved just like mainstream journalism into an echo chamber. In the mainstream news media, certain catchphrases get repeated over and over. It doesn't matter which outlet you watch (exception is Fox of course) but they all sound the same.

 

None of the guys at ESPN has an original thought. The same is true at MLB network which is full of ex ESPN guys.

[bullox]

It doesn't matter which outlet you watch (exception is Fox of course) but they all sound the same.

 

[GhostofQuantrill]

I'm surprised a little by this idea that the Cardinals are going to take a step back.

 

How much of the roster do you guys know?

 

The Cardinals had no shortstop for most of the year in '11. Wainwright, Holliday, Berkman, Lynn, Pujols, Freese all spent time on the DL. They blew something like 10 games with 2 outs in the 9th. Just converting half of those saves early in the year when Franklin was blowing them everyday would have put us right there for the division title.

 

The bullpen is going to be solidified from the start of '12. The lefty Rzep that we picked up at the deadline is a big plus, and we just sent down Sanchez who has the best swing and miss stuff in the organization. He'll be back up at some point.

 

Westbrook lost 20 lbs, he went almost 20 innings this spring without giving up a run. He'll be improved in '12.

 

Allen Craig would have ranked in the top 10 in MLB outfielders in a lot of categories if he qualified with enough at bats. He'll be starting a lot giving Beltran and Berkman days off, or when Beltran shifts to CF against lefties.

 

Tyler Greene is going to explode in '12. Thats a bold prediction, but a lot of ppl think it will happen. He was a 1st round pick years ago, he hit .320 in AAA last year. And was 16 for 16 stealing bases when he was called up. He never really has been given an everyday opportunity under LaRussa, he will this year. Fastest white guy in MLB with pop in his bat. Very interesting player.

 

I don't know how more of you don't think higher of the Cardinals.

[jjfanec]

Why are people expecting the Cards to take a step back?

 

Carpenter is out and it sounds like it couple be a while. This is what espn said, " It looks like it'll be a couple of months - minimum - before he's pitching in a regular-season game."

 

Craig is already nicked up. Furcal is never healthy for a full season. Berkman will regress some. Beltran is already battling minor injuries.

 

The lost Pujols. They lost Dotel. They lost Edwin Jackson. They lost LaRussa. They lost Duncan.

 

They have some nice pieces for sure but there are reasons to expect them to fall back.

[umphrey]

For some reason I dont think the Cards will have a bench full of 300 hitters

[Fear The Chorizo]

How much of the roster do you guys know?

 

Enough to know that Albert Pujols isn't on it anymore. And Carpenter appears to be taking Wainwright's place in the annual #1 starter who won't contibute all season due to injury role.

 

Westbrook's lost 20 pounds? Last I checked he's still Westbrook, who is bad at pitching.

 

Furcal basically played 1/2 a regular season due to injuries (mostly after the Cards acquired him).

 

Yes, the Cards won the world series last year - largely because Carpenter was awesome during the postseason, Pujols anchored the team during all the injury issues, everyone on the team caught fire offensively from September on, and the bullpen pulled a rabbit out of its arse and dominated in the playoffs. The Cards are one of the best 3 teams in the NL Central, but they are more likely to take a step back in the standings than the Reds or Brewers for precisely all the reasons mentioned earlier in this thread.

[MJLiverock]

I don't know that anyone thinks the Cardinals will be terrible or anything but the idea that they somehow have no questions and teams like the Brewers will be below .500 because they lost Fielder is what seems ridiculous. St. Louis lost Pujols, the best hitter in the game, the most feared guy in the NL. They will get Wainwright back but to expect Cy Young numbers from a a guy his first year back from TJ seems a bit high. Carpenter is hurt. Berkman exploded last year for his age and career progression,if I had to bet one way or the other I would go for regression. Furcal is always hurt and really didn't do much until he got to STL and had some timely hits. Freese may finally be healthy for a season, he's cut down on the drinking and night life by most accounts which contributed to some of his DL time. It isn't conjecture, I have plenty of friends in STL including guys who played with him in college/HS/minors and knew the rumors weren't just made up. The only reason STL even made the playoffs last year was due to an epic fail by the Braves. They also lost LaRussa and Duncan. Duncan somehow managed to polish the turds of other ML teams and squeeze a good year or two out of them. StL would let them walk and again they'd go back to previous mediocre at best results. Duncan is gone now and it will be interesting to see the effect on guys like Westbrook and Lohse.

 

I really don't see how anyone can claim this year's team will be much better as a base case for the season. Sure they should be in that mid 80's win range along with Milw and Cincinnati.

 

Milwaukee won't have Fielder but they will also not have the black hole that was McGehee at third either. The combined line of Fielder and McGehee is .259/.352/.458/.810 over 1292 PA. That number is not way above a possible line for a combined Gamel & Ramirez line. The Brewers also had Weeks miss the end of the season and Grienke miss the first month and will have KRod as a set up man for the full season moving Loe down the line. I have no problem saying the Brewers won't win as many games as last season, I don't think they will win as many. But to think the base case should be that the Brewers are going to fall off by 16+ games but expecting STL holds steady at worst or improves leaves me pretty skeptical.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm surprised a little by this idea that the Cardinals are going to take a step back.

 

How much of the roster do you guys know?

I think you really need to give this forum more credit. The Cards have a lot of talent, that's for sure. But even you can't deny that there are at least 4 key players who are huge injury risks, due to age and/or prior injuries.

 

Are there some here that can't admit the Cards will win 81 games? Sure, but you couldn't admit the same about the Brewers. So I think objectively the truth is obviously somewhere in the middle.

[dlk9s]

The bottom line is that the Reds, Cards, and Brewers should all be pretty good and any of the three could win the division. To pick one instead of the other isn't a big deal. Some ESPN analysts have picked the Brewers to win the division. John Kruk was weird in that he picked the Brewers to grab a wild card spot and then lose to the Tigers in the World Series.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think the Brewers are the best team in the National League.

 

Phillies have lost Oswalt, Utley is hurt and Howard is coming off a major injury, if you have concerns about the Brewers offense take a look at the Phillies

 

Reds- Lost Madson, Huge loss in the bullpen

 

Cards- Lost Pujols, LaRussa, Duncan and Carpenter is hurting

 

Braves- Not alot of offense unless Heyward re-emerges

 

Miami- Not sure what you have here

 

SF- Great pitching and bullpen, atrocious offense

 

 

GO BREW, they win 94 games and get to the World Series this year. Melvin pulls a deal at the deadline to help us get to the WS, can't predict WS winner

[Ennder]

I'm surprised a little by this idea that the Cardinals are going to take a step back.

 

How much of the roster do you guys know?

 

I'd be surprised if you could find a team in baseball that I can't speak intelligently about at least 80% of their roster(well maybe the Mariners/A's!), especially teams in the division. I don't like Berkman's chance to repeat what he did last year, I think Furcal's years as a quality SS are behind him though he won't be a black hole or anything. I expect some regression from Lohse (though obviously game 1 makes that look bad!). It is a good team but I don't think they were a legit 90 win team last year and I think they tread water at best in the off season.

 

I think it is a 3 team race that is going to be decided by the small margins that are so hard to project. How does Gamel do, how healthy do the Cardinals stay, Can any of the non Cueto/Latos Reds pitchers be productive this year etc. When I say something like I think the Brewers are an 88 win team it is like saying they will win 80-96 games, the margin of error is just huge in baseball.

[GAME05]

what i'm reading a lot of is looking at the Cards and the Reds and focusing on their negatives to why they won't win as many as predicted or just why they're not going to succeed. but then when it comes to the Brewers, it's making estimations of progression and chemistry and everything else reasonably positive.

 

it doesn't seem fair to compare the three teams by subtracting negatives from the Cards and Reds, while adding positives onto the Brewers. just about any team would come out ahead if you do it that way.

[Ennder]

what i'm reading a lot of is looking at the Cards and the Reds and focusing on their negatives to why they won't win as many as predicted or just why they're not going to succeed. but then when it comes to the Brewers, it's making estimations of progression and chemistry and everything else reasonably positive.

 

it doesn't seem fair to compare the three teams by subtracting negatives from the Cards and Reds, while adding positives onto the Brewers. just about any team would come out ahead if you do it that way.

 

To be fair you are finding ways for the Reds to gain about 15 wins compared to the other teams, it isn't going to be a fair comparison no matter what with them. It takes a huge leap of faith in the Reds to assume they have any chance to compete this year, I'm not saying the leap of faith isn't warranted mind you but the logical argument based on last season is there is no way they should win the division. Cardinals vs the Brewers is going to be really subjective though, no way to get around that.

[Buckethead Brigade]

For those who follow MLBTR, they came out with their playoff predictions the other day. 3 out of the 5 have the Brewers winning the NL Central, with one writer having them losing the WS to the Yankees.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/mlbtr-writer-predictions.html

[HiAndTight]

It seemed like last year the Brewers had a lot less injuries than the other clubs in the central. Besides Greinke's DL stint at the beginning of the year, the rotation was healthy and productive for the entire year. I could see the Brewers repeating this year, but not without a little good luck in the health department again. I think a lot of sportswriters have a hard time seeing past the loss of Fielder when they are making their predictions.

 

 

We're also in a much better position than Cincy to replace any injured starter. The Cardinals sadly trump up with blue chip starters coming up, but Peralta is clearly ready to step in should we suffer an injury. And while Estrada should be the guy for a minor injury, Peralta should be the guy for a pitcher who's going to miss more than a couple starts. I like Estrada as the long man, but Peralta has dominant stuff. Of course that's a lengthy list of pitchers with equally impressive stuff who don't pan out....but, until proven otherwise, I see no reason not to be confident in him.

[Ennder]

Each of the past 3 seasons the Brewers have had the best looking team health report before the season. The Brewers don't usually take risks on injury prone players and the other teams do. Health is a skill and they have one of the better thought of medical staffs in baseball s well. This isn't some fluke that the team tends to stay healthy. The Cardinals are an extremely high risk team so they are going to live or die by the injury this year.

[3and2Fastball]

Disagree that Peralta is "clearly" ready. I hope he is, but so far he seems like a AAAA guy who struggles with location. Does he have the potential to overcome that? Absolutely. I don't trust any of Peralta, Fiers or Rogers to step up from AAA and be very good. Estrada is a legit #5 starter if needed but I'm concerned about Marcum's health and our lack of ability to cover for him if he falters or goes down. Wolf is a great #4 pitcher, as a #3 pitcher Wolf doesn't shine as compared to many other teams (Philadelphia, St Louis, San Francisco etc). Same with Narveson in terms of him as a #5 or a #4.

 

I do think the Brewers will be a very good team.

 

As far as St Louis goes, Freese is a real wildcard (no pun intended). Is he poised to become a superstar? Maybe. Carpenter being out will really hurt them though. And there is no replacing Pujols

 

Gamel/Ramirez can likely duplicate Fielder/McGehee but you take Albert Pujols off of a wild-card team and that is a mega loss. Berkman will likely not be the same without Pujols in the lineup, Beltran is often injured, I just don't see the Cardinals being strong contenders without Freese emerging as a 35 HR 1.000 OPS, .400 OBP guy

[Madtown343]

Peralta AAAA? Really?

 

I think you need to go back and look a little closer.n yes he has struggled in his two spring major league stints but he is just removed from a dominant season at AA and AAA, Early 20's, and dominant stuff.

 

Yea that's a guy I think has proven he is 4A.