How are "so called experts" picking the Brewers for 3rd Place?

[3and2Fastball]

If you look at WAR:

 

Losing Fielder, adding Gamel

 

Losing McGehee, adding Ramirez

 

Losing Betancourt, adding Gonzalez

 

Adding 1/2 season of K-Rod, adding 1/5 season of Greinke

 

All of that equals the Brewers being at least as good as last year, if not better. I'm not predicting 96 wins but there is no reason to believe the Brewers will be significantly worse

[paul253]

I think its a combo of them thinking Milwaukee may not be as good while other teams, especially Cincinnati, got better. St. Louis lost Pujols but the get Wainwright back and they added Beltran too. It should a nice race as I don't think any of those teams are significantly better than the other two.

[umphrey]

Because the Reds went all in and the Cardinals won the WS last year

 

I don't know if we are 3rd or 1st but I see the top 3 as a pickem.

[Schlitz001]

It seemed like last year the Brewers had a lot less injuries than the other clubs in the central. Besides Greinke's DL stint at the beginning of the year, the rotation was healthy and productive for the entire year. I could see the Brewers repeating this year, but not without a little good luck in the health department again. I think a lot of sportswriters have a hard time seeing past the loss of Fielder when they are making their predictions.

[pebadger]

This may just be my perception, but it seems to me that the Brewers pitching staff is still a bit underrated when compared to STL or CIN for a variety of reasons. STL and CIN are just sexier baseball traditions than is Milwaukee, too. I say that knowing full well that modern objective analysis is supposed to look past all that stuff, but I contend that old-time notions that reside deep in the mind die really hard.

[Bombers]

I usually go off Vegas odds and they have brewers W/L over/under placing them in 2nd. (84.5) ... Reds are 86.5.

 

Also the odds are the same for brewers/cards/reds on a futures bet for winning the central.

[owbc]

SI was wrong on 6 out of its 8 playoff predictions last year. The Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, and Cincinnati Reds were all forecasted to make the playoffs.

 

Out of ESPN's 50 or so baseball writers (there are too many on the page to count), not a single one had either the Cardinals or the Rangers in the World Series.

 

The "experts" are going to take the safe pick almost every time. The Brewers are somewhat of a bold choice, the small market stigma doesn't disappear overnight and they did lose a future Hall of Famer. But besides Kotsay, it will hurt to lose Prince also. The Cardinals are getting the irrational defending champs bump--I personally think they will finish 4th or lower. The Reds had a down year in 2011 and are a sexy pick for a rebound.

 

The Brewers' 96 win season was not overachieving in my opinion. If they didn't have a tough interleague schedule or a disaster on the left side of the infield, they would have won 100. Of course, it really all came together late in the season and a number of players had excellent or career seasons. You can't always expect that. But I think most people who closely follow the Brewers would consider 84-86 wins to be an underachievement this year. A modest regression is more likely--but far from certain.

 

Also--the most important factor--it is hard to anticipate deadline deals--and the K-Rod pickup was an important addition since the bullpen was having problems blowing games. Furcal made a huge difference for the Cardinals as well in 2011.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers are somewhat of a bold choice, the small market stigma doesn't disappear overnight and they did lose a future Hall of Famer. But besides Kotsay, it will hurt to lose Prince also.

I approve this message. Well done, sir.

[craigharmann]

The Cardinals have Mark McGwire teaching the "right way" of hitting and the Reds have Dusty Baker. How do you go against that awesomeness?

[Dollarbill13]

Take their 90-72 Pythagorean record from last year, subtract a win or two for the net talent loss and a win or two regression to the mean from the rotation (even though Greinke missed a month, Wolfie pitched way above expectations and we only used six starters last year) and you can pretty easily get to a mid-to-upper 80s projection for total wins.

[umphrey]

There are a lot of parallels between the 2012 Reds and the 2011 Brewers. Compare Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Cueto to Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Greinke, Gallardo.

[BradWI]

just be glad to fly under the radar. let the reds deal with the pressure of being expected to contend.

[craigharmann]

let the reds deal with the pressure of being expected to contend.

 

And Dusty killing the career of at least one starter in the process.

[Ennder]

Take their 90-72 Pythagorean record from last year, subtract a win or two for the net talent loss and a win or two regression to the mean from the rotation (even though Greinke missed a month, Wolfie pitched way above expectations and we only used six starters last year) and you can pretty easily get to a mid-to-upper 80s projection for total wins.

 

 

Do the same with the Reds and I don't see how you can make it to high 80s wins though. I don't have an issue with picking it Cardinals, Reds and Brewers in some order though. Personally I think the Reds pitching is still too weak but I don't think much of Cueto or his chances to stay healthy so that leaves it Latos and a bunch of mediocrity.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Even those that have the Brewers third admit they will contend in a 3 team race. There's a few sky is falling guys in the national press with Prince gone, but most guys get it. It's roughly 33% Reds, 33% Brewers, 33% Cards, 1% Field. I thought Melvin said it best in the 30 Clubs in 30 Days on MLB...it's 3 teams that are all built for 85 wins. I think he's right...and one will likely win 90 and the division.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

The Brewers' 96 win season was not overachieving in my opinion. If they didn't have a tough interleague schedule or a disaster on the left side of the infield, they would have won 100. Of course, it really all came together late in the season and a number of players had excellent or career seasons. You can't always expect that. But I think most people who closely follow the Brewers would consider 84-86 wins to be an underachievement this year. A modest regression is more likely--but far from certain.

 

 

This is dead on. Don't forget about not having Weeks for a couple months. Right now, I'd say the Brewers are a safe bet to win 90+ games.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think you can pencil the Brewers for 90+ wins after they lost the most important bat in their lineup. Yeah Fielder was poor defensively, but he anchored the lineup that struggled to score all season long when he wasn't hitting well. I like the Brewers' staff and they will have an improved defense from last season. Offensively, I think it's tough to just look at Fielder+McGehee vs Gamel+Ramirez as a wash. The best pitchers in the NL Central are righties, and arguable the best lefthanded power bat in the NL over the last few seasons isn't on the Brewers anymore.

 

If the Brewers stay relatively healthy and Gamel doesn't fall on his face, the Brewers are in a great position to win the division. I like the Reds more than the Cards, but any of the 3 teams could win the division if the breaks go their way.

[Ennder]

The Cardinals are the team that needs absolutely everything to bounce their way to win 90 games imo, assuming carpenter misses any real time, of course they managed to have that happen last year when wainwright got hurt.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't think it is inconcievable that the Brewers could finish 3rd. There are three really good teams in division and atleast one of them is going to underperform. I hope it isn't the Brewers but obviously it could happen. You could make a very strong case for any of the Brewers, Reds, or Cards.

[JohnBriggs12]

This may just be my perception, but it seems to me that the Brewers pitching staff is still a bit underrated when compared to STL or CIN for a variety of reasons. STL and CIN are just sexier baseball traditions than is Milwaukee, too. I say that knowing full well that modern objective analysis is supposed to look past all that stuff, but I contend that old-time notions that reside deep in the mind die really hard.

 

The experts paid closer attention to the pitching in the playoffs, and the Brewer pitching was awful.

[JohnBriggs12]

There are a lot of parallels between the 2012 Reds and the 2011 Brewers. Compare Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Cueto to Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Greinke, Gallardo.

 

Bruce doesn't belong in that discussion. He's more Corey Hart than he is Ryan Braun. He gets rated on what people think he can do, not what he's actually done. When did Latos become the 2nd coming? A 3.47 ERA last year in the AL West? He'll be solid but expect more like 3.80 in GAB.

 

I'm on record as saying the Brewers will dearly miss Fielder and that's not meant as a knock on Gamel either. He just affected the lineup so much. Ramirez doesn't have near that affect. Braun has never been in a lineup with no Prince and that's going to affect him. Gonzalez is only an upgrade in the minds of Betancourt haters. He won't be.

 

I think the division is up for grabs. But my worry is that if the mainstays of the Cardinal lineup stay healthy, they are the team to beat. Yeah Albert is gone, but Holiday, Berkman, and Beltran have all produced in their careers without Albert as a teammate. You can't say the same about Weeks, Braun and Hart who've all played almost entirely with Prince as a rock in there.

[umphrey]

There are a lot of parallels between the 2012 Reds and the 2011 Brewers. Compare Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Cueto to Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Greinke, Gallardo.

 

Bruce doesn't belong in that discussion. He's more Corey Hart than he is Ryan Braun. He gets rated on what people think he can do, not what he's actually done. When did Latos become the 2nd coming? A 3.47 ERA last year in the AL West? He'll be solid but expect more like 3.80 in GAB.

 

I'm on record as saying the Brewers will dearly miss Fielder and that's not meant as a knock on Gamel either. He just affected the lineup so much. Ramirez doesn't have near that affect. Braun has never been in a lineup with no Prince and that's going to affect him. Gonzalez is only an upgrade in the minds of Betancourt haters. He won't be.

 

I think the division is up for grabs. But my worry is that if the mainstays of the Cardinal lineup stay healthy, they are the team to beat. Yeah Albert is gone, but Holiday, Berkman, and Beltran have all produced in their careers without Albert as a teammate. You can't say the same about Weeks, Braun and Hart who've all played almost entirely with Prince as a rock in there.

 

Pre 2011 though, Greinke was coming off an underwhelming year after a previous Cy Young and changed teams. Latos had a lights out rookie year and an underwhelming year last year. Bruce at 25 isnt much different from Braun pre MVP. Id take Greinke and Braun today no question, but the Reds have the same potential we did a year ago. Its just potential, but you cant say it isnt eerily similiar.

[homer]

The Cardinals are the team that needs absolutely everything to bounce their way to win 90 games imo, assuming carpenter misses any real time, of course they managed to have that happen last year when wainwright got hurt.

 

 

Ding! Ding!

 

The Cards are really old all over the field. They will have to be extremely lucky with injuries to stay on top of the division.

[Ennder]

Pre 2011 though, Greinke was coming off an underwhelming year after a previous Cy Young and changed teams. Latos had a lights out rookie year and an underwhelming year last year. Bruce at 25 isnt much different from Braun pre MVP. Id take Greinke and Braun today no question, but the Reds have the same potential we did a year ago. Its just potential, but you cant say it isnt eerily similiar.

 

I think it really depends on what you think of the 2010 Reds. I see them as a team that had a bunch of guys over-perform like Arroyo, Stubbs, Rolen, Wood so last years pretty major regression to me was not a fluke of any type. But if you believed in the 2010 Reds then yeah I think they are a good bet to be this years version of the 2011 Brewers.

[Madtown343]

I can live with hype for the reds. They are exciting and have talented young players, and added a new ace and bullpen.

 

I can't stand that every analyst overlooks a team built around a core of berk, furcal, Holliday, Beltran, carpenter, and wainwright and does not even mention the idea that injuries are not only a possible issue (case with every team and sport) but a highly likely one with this list.

 

Not to mention you have the unexpected and no history to back the rise to stardom of freese and to some extent motte as closer. I think they have way more questions than answers on that team and yet all the experts can talk about is the names on the back of their jerseys.

 

With some luck, and with health biting STL I would not be shocked to see them finish behind Pitt.