Do you think Albert Pujols will break the All-Time HR Record?

[3and2Fastball]

Pujols has 445 HR's right now and he's about to play in his age 32 season. He hit 37 HR's last year in a "down year" (for him) and the least amount of HR's he's ever had in a season was 32 (in 2007).

 

Hank Aaron had 755. Barry Bonds had 762.

 

Every player hits a decline at some point in his career, so theres no telling when that'll happen for Pujols. He'd need to average 30 HR's over the next 10 seasons to get within range.

 

If he averages 35 HR's over 6 seasons and includes a couple of 40 HR seasons, that'd put him around 735 HR's at the age of 40.

 

I think it'll be tough for him to pull that off... what do you think? How does his new home ballpark play into this, too?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Not a chance. He'll drop off sooner rather than later.

[TooLiveBrew]

Angel Stadium was 25th of 30 MLB parks in 2011, in terms of HRs. And beyond that, I have to imagine it's tougher on RHB HRs than LHB HRs, just given its outfield fence dimensions. It was 23d for HRs in 2010, then randomly 2d in 2009, and 17th in 2008. Hard to be sure, but given its dimensions & three of the past four seasons, it sure looks like a pretty HR-unfriendly park.

 

On top of that, the AL West includes OAK, SEA, & TEX, and the first two teams also play in HR-unfriendly parks. I think the ballparks in which he'll be playing most will, overall, hurt his chances to run down #763. With all that said, though, Busch Stadium's HR PF ranks for the past four seasons are (oldest to most recent), 19th, 28th, 26th, & 27th. This is, without a doubt, one of the best power hitters & hitters of all-time. So the 'general rules' need to be either thrown out, or at least considered with a bit more scrutiny.

 

I think he has a tangible shot at catching Hank & Barry, but if I were betting, I'd bet against it.

[topper09er]

Not a chance is pretty rediculous considering the historical context. He has the 4th most HRs through age 31 and the 2nd least PAs on the list. He has a whole season lead on Hank Aaron.

 

[pre]Rk Player HR Age PA

1 Alex Rodriguez 518 18-31 8482

2 Jimmie Foxx 464 17-31 7858

3 Ken Griffey 460 19-31 7736

4 Albert Pujols 445 21-31 7433

5 Eddie Mathews 422 20-31 7799

6 Mickey Mantle 419 19-31 7412

7 Frank Robinson 403 20-31 7651

8 Hank Aaron 398 20-31 7855[/pre]

 

The Bill James career estimator gives him a 26 percent chance to break the record with a projected average total of 685 HRs.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames/_/age/31/careertotal/445/yearone/37/yeartwo/42/yearthree/47/goal/763

[Ennder]

Unless he spits out a couple more 40 HR seasons somewhere in the next 3 or 4 I don't think he's likely to make it.

[RightFieldCoder]

Fielder has a 6% chance on that estimate to beat Bonds.

[craigharmann]

Honest answer? I sure hope not.

[CheezWizHed]

So did you mean the real HR record or Bond's juiced HR record?

[3and2Fastball]

So did you mean the real HR record or Bond's juiced HR record?

 

I tend to think of Aaron's 755 as the record, but Bonds' 762 would apply to the question, too, they are just 7 apart

[3and2Fastball]

Pujols' ability to DH the rest of his career (unlike Aaron & Bonds) may help

[topper09er]

Fielder has a 6% chance on that estimate to beat Bonds.

 

It also gives Hank Aaron a 4% chance of reaching 755 HRs after his age 31 season.

[Warning Track Power]

So did you mean the real HR record or Bond's juiced HR record?

 

I tend to think of the sacred numbers as 755 and 61 still but that's just me.

[3and2Fastball]

The Bill James career estimator gives him a 26 percent chance to break the record with a projected average total of 685 HRs.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames/_/age/31/careertotal/445/yearone/37/yeartwo/42/yearthree/47/goal/763

 

According to that estimator, Ryan Braun has a Zero % chance to do it. Not to be a math nerd but 0% would apply to Craig Counsell. Braun should at least get some type of chance, even 0.077 % ....And hey Braun might start hitting 45 bombs a year in 2016 when he moves to 1B!

[derflotr]

I think the better question is: How many more HRs does Pujols have to hit beyond Aaron's mark to keep Mike Stanton from beating both of them?

 

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/kk8/igndiscussion/mikestantonmuscle.jpg

[TooLiveBrew]

Don't forget about A-Rod. I realize he wasn't dismissed, 3&2 wanted to talk about Pujols. But Rodriguez is at 629, and if he puts up 30 HR/season, he'd have the record in 2016, his age-40 season. Very plausible, especially if he can stick around as a DH & play into his 40s. Hell, if he can stay that healthy & productive, we won't be talking about him chasing Bonds, we'll be talking about him chasing #800.

[TURBO]

I don't care who beats Bonds, whoever does it is my new favorite player.

 

I HATE Bonds.

[Funketown]

I think Pujols has a decent chance at 762, Bill James' 26% seems a touch high to me, but not way off.

 

If he can average 35 HR's per year for his first five and 25 HR's for his next five, he's pretty much there. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. Should Pujols go out there and have two huge HR seasons by his standards (45 or so) in his first couple of seasons, this becomes far more reasonable.

 

Like Hank Aaron, Pujols might not even need a 50 HR season to break the record. If that isn't a testament to Pujols' consistency, I don't know what is.

[reillymcshane]

Sure he has a chance, but I'd bet against him. Odds are that age and/or injury will catch up with him. That's my guess.

[Invader3K]

I've felt for a while that A-Rod will probably break it. I believe Barry Bonds himself has even said this.

[brettac1]

I think A-Rod has a better chance. It's a pretty huge deal to be that much closer to it than Pujols is.

[nate82]

On top of that, the AL West includes OAK, SEA, & TEX, and the first two teams also play in HR-unfriendly parks. I think the ballparks in which he'll be playing most will, overall, hurt his chances to run down #763. With all that said, though, Busch Stadium's HR PF ranks for the past four seasons are (oldest to most recent), 19th, 28th, 26th, & 27th. This is, without a doubt, one of the best power hitters & hitters of all-time. So the 'general rules' need to be either thrown out, or at least considered with a bit more scrutiny.

 

After this season you can add the Astros which their park is a launching pad for HR's with that short porch in LF.

[Funketown]

I love putting absurd data into a model like James' HR model and seeing what it tells me. I just entered a 19 year old stud who hit 10,000 home runs in each of his first two ML seasons. He only has a 97% chance of hitting his 20,001st homer. Shenanigans!

[TooLiveBrew]

On top of that, the AL West includes OAK, SEA, & TEX, and the first two teams also play in HR-unfriendly parks. I think the ballparks in which he'll be playing most will, overall, hurt his chances to run down #763. With all that said, though, Busch Stadium's HR PF ranks for the past four seasons are (oldest to most recent), 19th, 28th, 26th, & 27th. This is, without a doubt, one of the best power hitters & hitters of all-time. So the 'general rules' need to be either thrown out, or at least considered with a bit more scrutiny.

 

After this season you can add the Astros which their park is a launching pad for HR's with that short porch in LF.

Good call on Houston, forgot they're moving to the AL West. That will be hard to get used to for me.

[berniebrewer4life]

I don't think a drop in power is as much a concern at this point, as staying healthy. If he misses just 1 season(especially early), i think he's screwed.

[Nottso]

I hope not, just so that we never have to hear about it from the classiest fans in the known universe.

 

I also hope Pujols goes into the HOF as an Angel and praises god for getting him out of St. Louis and away from said fans.