Lucroy signs extension- Reportedly 5 years/$11 million

[Fear The Chorizo]

Also, when Marcum gave up the granny to Paul Goldschmidt he threw his glove like a 10 year old, but I seem to remember him having to call Lucroy to the mound that AB because of the signs. I remember thinking Marcum looked pissed at Lucroy even though he just gave up a grand slam.

 

I remember the same thing - at the time I thought Marcum couldn't see the signs Lucroy was giving him with a guy on 2nd base - I remember it being difficult for me to see Lucroy's signs from television. I also remember Lucroy coming out, either in the next inning or the next game, with white tape on his fingers - presumably so it was easier for pitchers to see his fingers.

[umphrey]

Lucroy's ability to get strikes called for his pitchers is undeniably valuable, but he's not a good hitter (yet), & his arm leaves a lot to be desired. I like the guy, but I'm not sure I see the need for this contract. The Brewers don't even get a year of free agency.

 

EDIT: D'oh. One year of free agency. Nevermind on that part.

 

Anyone have numbers on how he was throwing to 2nd? I thought it was about average.

[topper09er]

I wanted to post Lucroys defensive numbers from baseball-ref, but none of the options work in the new forum.

 

Mods, how do you make a table that is readable in this new format?!?!?!

 

Edit: never mind, still not as nice as the old style tables which looked exactly the same as on bb-ref

[CheezWizHed]

Before someone publishes his CS% from last year, one should note that the catcher is 1 of 4 people involved in CS. He is the biggest part of that, but a pitcher/1B holding the runner and a 2B/SS applying the tag also have varying involvement in ultimately a small sample (per year) number. The pitcher can be a huge influence. When Sheets was on the mound, you might as well ignore any CS/SB numbers for the catcher.

 

Having said that, Lucroy's arm is probably his weakest part of his game. But I thought his release time was still pretty good. Not sure about the accuracy.

 

But the think I like about Lucroy has been:

- Couldn't block balls in the dirt at first. So he worked on it and is considered very good at it.

- Wasn't ready offensively his first year, but it didn't effect his defense. Last year, he was at the MLB average. It wouldn't surprise me if he was above average going forward, maybe even an All-Star once.

- Seems like Wolf is working with Lucroy in ST this year. Not sure the "issue" originally, but some people don't click.

- I see improvements in all aspects of his game.

 

Side note on his OPS. Yahoo lists him at 265/313/391/703 last year. How do you add "313" and "391" to get "703?" I get 704... must be that new, new math. (ok, it was probably some rounding issue, it just looks funny)

-

[topper09er]

Lucroy

 

[pre]Year Inn A E DP Fld% PB WP SB CS CS% lgCS% PO

2010 655.0 44 5 6 .992 1 40 37 17 31% 29% 1

2011 1043.2 63 7 6 .993 1 62 77 30 28% 28% 0

Total 1698.2 107 12 12 .993 2 102 114 47 29% 28% 1[/pre]

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't have 2B-only data, but Lucroy was 28th of 30 catchers in 2011 MLB (link, min. 600 innings caught) in The Fielding Bible's Stolen Base Runs Saved (abbreviated as rSB). rSB "measures how many 'runs' a catcher contributes to their team by throwing out runners and preventing runners from attempting steals in the first place."

 

In the same innings-played sample, Luc was 8th-worst in terms of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), but FanGraphs notes that DRS isn't adequate alone for catchers, since they have very specific & unique skills/things asked of them.

 

Lucroy was 3rd-best in terms of CPP (Calculated Passed Pitches), which attempts to project how many passed balls a catcher 'should' have allowed, based on pitches caught/seen. Strangely enough, he was 7th-worst (again, of C with at least 600 inn. caught in 2011) in RPP, Passed Pitch Runs, which, "calculates the number of runs above / below average a catcher is at blocking pitches."

 

- Link to FanGraphs post explaining their catcher defense

 

 

Lucroy is a decidely below-avg. defensive catcher (aside from framing pitches), which jives with the draft-day scouting reports that he was a bat-first type of catcher. Beyond that, it seems his quick release helps compensate for an arm that isn't particularly strong or accurate... although I'm of the belief that lack of arm strength leads to poor accuracy when a guy tries to throw a ball harder than he's really adequately capable of doing. So in short, I think he has an accurate arm overall, but not when he has to add some extra mustard to his throws.

[bork]

I don't have the numbers, but I do know that Lucroy's second half CS numbers were a lot better than the first half. Missing spring training and recovering from the broken finger seemed to affect his throwing in the first half. He was much better in the second half.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't have the numbers, but I do know that Lucroy's second half CS numbers were a lot better than the first half. Missing spring training and recovering from the broken finger seemed to affect his throwing in the first half. He was much better in the second half.

I tried to see if you can sort by halves at FanGraphs, but you can't. So I looked at 2010 out of curiosity, again at least 600 inn. caught -

 

rSB: 8/33 (part of a 4-way tie for 8th-best rSB... behind a 4-way tie for 4th-best)

DRS: 13/33 (tied w. one player)

CPP: 5/33

RPP: 11/33 (tied w. one player)

 

Again, DRS isn't a good stat for catchers, but it's one of very few stats included for catchers at FanGraphs, so I used it here.

 

So I think the broken pinkie finger in ST 2011 is probably a very relevant detail to include if we're attempting to rate him as a defender. I wish we had a way to explore catching defensive data by month, or by season halves, but I don't know that it's readily available.

[homer]

The cost certainty and potential for improvement make this a solid deal, IMO. Not only that but if Greinke is comfortable with Lucroy and knows he'll be around the next five years he might be more apt to stay. I don't think that's really that big of a stretch.

[topper09er]

The cost certainty and potential for improvement make this a solid deal, IMO. Not only that but if Greinke is comfortable with Lucroy and knows he'll be around the next five years he might be more apt to stay. I don't think that's really that big of a stretch.

 

He was already guaranteed to be around for the next 4 years

[homer]

The cost certainty and potential for improvement make this a solid deal, IMO. Not only that but if Greinke is comfortable with Lucroy and knows he'll be around the next five years he might be more apt to stay. I don't think that's really that big of a stretch.

 

He was already guaranteed to be around for the next 4 years

 

 

Right, but I said five years

[RightFieldCoder]

Side note on his OPS. Yahoo lists him at 265/313/391/703 last year. How do you add "313" and "391" to get "703?" I get 704... must be that new, new math. (ok, it was probably some rounding issue, it just looks funny)

His slash line is really .2651/.3125/.3907/.7032. Both OBP(.313) and SLG(.391) get rounded up, but they aren't large enough to cause OPS(.703) to be rounded up.

[liveforoctober]

The cost certainty and potential for improvement make this a solid deal, IMO. Not only that but if Greinke is comfortable with Lucroy and knows he'll be around the next five years he might be more apt to stay. I don't think that's really that big of a stretch.

 

He was already guaranteed to be around for the next 4 years

 

 

Right, but I said five years

 

I think in terms of Greinke there is certainly a message being sent though. Yes, Lucroy would be here for 4 more years regardless... but this new contract still qualifies as "taking care of" one of your players. By guaranteeing that money, the Brewers have made that statement.

 

The Brewers have shown they are not the Brewers of old where you sign here to play only if you are out of options or it is the last place you can find a starting gig to boost your stock to get a better job later. In the last two seasons we have reached out and "taken care of" Braun, Weeks, Hart, Yovani, and now Lucroy. We have a reasonable set of new pitching and position prospects that are near major league ready to help the team .... Greinke is a smart guy, he can see all of this.

 

This contract is good for the team, but it also continues to emphasize that these aren't your dad's Brewers and if Greinke is willing to look long term, he will have a chance to win here.

[logan82]

I was thinking about it and I am not sure it actually buys out any FA years. He was a rookie in 2010, and has had one full season in 2011. A 5 year deal would cover this year plus 4 more which would only be through his arby years. He might be a Super 2 but that would only add an arby year not take away a year of club control. Unless I am forgetting something in the new CBA.

[thebruce44]

It should also be noted that RR basically ran Lucroy into the ground by not giving him full days off. His offensive numbers in the second half hurt his end of the season numbers. Its conceivable that he was an above average hitting catcher before playing every day caught up with him.

 

Hopefully his body gets used to catching every day, or RR gives him actual days off this year. I doubt Lucroy is going to tell his manager he needs an off day.

[CheezWizHed]

His slash line is really .2651/.3125/.3907/.7032. Both OBP(.313) and SLG(.391) get rounded up, but they aren't large enough to cause OPS(.703) to be rounded up.

 

Yeah, I figured that was it. I once proved to my math teacher that when she rounded each of my test scores prior to calculating my average, she gave me an "A-" grade. But by carrying the decimal out and calculating my average, I get an "A". When my report card came, I had an "A".

[umphrey]

I don't have 2B-only data, but Lucroy was 28th of 30 catchers in 2011 MLB (link, min. 600 innings caught) in The Fielding Bible's Stolen Base Runs Saved (abbreviated as rSB). rSB "measures how many 'runs' a catcher contributes to their team by throwing out runners and preventing runners from attempting steals in the first place."

 

In the same innings-played sample, Luc was 8th-worst in terms of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), but FanGraphs notes that DRS isn't adequate alone for catchers, since they have very specific & unique skills/things asked of them.

 

Lucroy was 3rd-best in terms of CPP (Calculated Passed Pitches), which attempts to project how many passed balls a catcher 'should' have allowed, based on pitches caught/seen. Strangely enough, he was 7th-worst (again, of C with at least 600 inn. caught in 2011) in RPP, Passed Pitch Runs, which, "calculates the number of runs above / below average a catcher is at blocking pitches."

 

- Link to FanGraphs post explaining their catcher defense

 

 

Lucroy is a decidely below-avg. defensive catcher (aside from framing pitches), which jives with the draft-day scouting reports that he was a bat-first type of catcher. Beyond that, it seems his quick release helps compensate for an arm that isn't particularly strong or accurate... although I'm of the belief that lack of arm strength leads to poor accuracy when a guy tries to throw a ball harder than he's really adequately capable of doing. So in short, I think he has an accurate arm overall, but not when he has to add some extra mustard to his throws.

 

This doesn't surprise me all that much. The quote about his pitch framing equivalent to an all star bat seemed like it was a cherry picked stat at best, and something that would be unreliable to quantify. Also thanks for posting more than the CS percentage, because that has the same flaws as something like fielding percentage (errors).

[MadScientist]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/milwaukee-locks-up-lucroy/

 

Favorite line out of this article is:

 

Lucroy’s ability to get umpires to call strikes saves 24 runs per 120 games – similar to the impact of an All-Star level bat.

 

I said this in my the prediction thread, Lucroy's value to this team is severly overlooked.

 

Looking at the Lucroy vs Varitek graphs in the original article http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 I wonder if the number of runs saved is an under estimate. It really looks like the Brewers pitchers are living on that low outside corner more than the Red Sox pitchers did with Varitek. If pitchers are not confident in getting the calls on the best pitches, they have to come in with more hittable pitches. Maybe the analysis takes this into account, but it's not clear from the analysis in the articles.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Contract details per Rosenthal.

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/breaking_down_lucroys_extension_with_brewers/10412794

[TheCrew07]

I like this move.

 

While Lucroy isn't an elite player by any stretch, I really don't see anyone coming up through the system who will push him in the near future and he's certainly an adequate MLB starter. The deal reflects his current level of production and isn't an overpay, plus it extends his service time with the MLB team to 7 1/2 years and we'd potentially be cutting bait with him at the appropriate time from an injury nexus perspective.

 

We're a good 3 years from having a replacement catcher if the guys who were in A ball last season start ascending. Garfield didn't play much with that horrible injury, but he didn't set the world on fire in his first go round with WI.

 

edit. I wanted to add that the Brewers have whiffed horribly recently on a bunch of FA contracts and people are still clamoring for them to be players in FA every year. The total money in a deal like this less than 1 year of Greinke, it's a solid move. When signing Braun and Yo for much high dollar amounts the team obviously assumes much greater risk, but those are the types of contracts that the team needs to sign to control costs. Give an elite player long-term security at a discount... if the player gets injured and never plays again it's still better than eating FA contracts for players that get injured on big money deals and never perform as an above average player again. There's still much less financial risk in a deal like Braun originally signed than there is signing Greinke to a FA contract. The dollars aren't even close.

[Madtown343]

Agreed and the cost certainty of luc plus Maldonado at the minimum for the next 3+ years is great for looking at the rest of our team.

 

Our catcher position should be locked up starter and backup for the next 5 years at an affordable rate and likely above league average skill set.

 

Lucroy's progression and Maldonado as the second catcher will improve defense at the position, and an eventual loss of kottaras will not be an issue considering he is not used offensively as the left handed side of a catching platoon anyways.

 

I like George's bat, but his defense will make me happy to see MM as the back up in 2013 and the future.

[BCZF]

Im glad for him.. Bout time the backstop was paid attention to

[TooLiveBrew]

I think in terms of Greinke there is certainly a message being sent though. Yes, Lucroy would be here for 4 more years regardless... but this new contract still qualifies as "taking care of" one of your players. By guaranteeing that money, the Brewers have made that statement.

 

The Brewers have shown they are not the Brewers of old where you sign here to play only if you are out of options or it is the last place you can find a starting gig to boost your stock to get a better job later. In the last two seasons we have reached out and "taken care of" Braun, Weeks, Hart, Yovani, and now Lucroy. We have a reasonable set of new pitching and position prospects that are near major league ready to help the team .... Greinke is a smart guy, he can see all of this.

 

This contract is good for the team, but it also continues to emphasize that these aren't your dad's Brewers and if Greinke is willing to look long term, he will have a chance to win here.

The first team I think of in terms of 'taking care' of keeping other players signed & paid is the Cardinals. At the time of the Holliday extension, all the MLB-covering talking heads were spouting that without extending Holliday, the Cards had no shot at re-signing Pujols. That sure worked out for them.

 

I get all the assumptions about how Greinke may be taking this signing (& others), but I definitely hope the reason this contract was tendered is because it's a good idea to keep Lucroy in the fold at a reasonable price. And, also, I get how that would/could impact Greinke's decision or situation, but I just hope Greinke wasn't used as anything close to a major reason why Luc was extended.

 

 

I was thinking about it and I am not sure it actually buys out any FA years. He was a rookie in 2010, and has had one full season in 2011. A 5 year deal would cover this year plus 4 more which would only be through his arby years. He might be a Super 2 but that would only add an arby year not take away a year of club control. Unless I am forgetting something in the new CBA.

It's hard to know, given the language used so far, if this is a 5-year extension counting this season, or if the extension starts after this season. Because you could be right, & that's the thinking I used when I said earlier in this thread that I was miffed the deal didn't buy out any FA seasons. Has anyone put out any specific numbers on when this extension starts & ends?

 

EDIT: I should've read PrinceEatMeat's post # more closely. Per Ken Rosenthal, if Lucroy doesn't qualify for Super 2 status, the breakdown is

 

$500,000 signing bonus.

$500,000 in 2012.

$750,000 in ‘13.

$2 million in ’14.

$3 million in ’15.

$4 million in ’16.

$5.25 million club option or $250,000 buyout in ’17.

So the deal basically buys out one year of FA if the Brewers still want Lucroy. If not, the buyout is pretty cheap. Fwiw, the Rosenthal piece PEM linked to also has numbers for the contract if Luc qualifies as a Super 2.

[umphrey]

There isnt much better than club options with low buyouts. I only wish there were more.

[TooLiveBrew]

Some good quotes from Lucroy, via Adam McCalvy's Brewers.com piece:

 

"I remember after being drafted we were in Casper, Wyoming, on a road trip at 3 o'clock in the morning in the middle of nowhere," Lucroy recalled. "You're out there in the middle of these mountains, and I remember being awake and sitting there thinking, 'What am I doing here right now?' I never thought five years from then I'd be sitting here. So it's definitely a blessing. It's a lot of fun."

...

"It's not all about the money for me," Lucroy said. "I believe this organization gives me the best chance to get better, just because of the fact that you're playing with people that care. This works best for me and my family. You really can't ask for anybody better to work with than these guys and our coaching staff. It's easy to play, it really is. It was a very fair deal based on what I've done, and I couldn't ask for anything better."

...

"I don't want to be content with anything," Lucroy said. "I'm a strong believer that if you think you have it figured out, you don't. This game will punish you if you think you know everything.

 

"For me and my family to be able to extend my career here and hopefully longer than that, that's all l can ask for. ... I want to to be able to be comfortable with people. I want to know people, I want to be friends with people. I want my kids to play with other players' kids. Here, that's possible for me. With this behind us now, we can move forward and try to win a championship."

Quotes in the article, too, from Melvin, Weeks, Yo, & Roenicke.