Lucroy signs extension- Reportedly 5 years/$11 million

[AZBrewCrew]

As a recent purchaser of a Lucroy jersey, I'm delighted by this news.

 

Me too hawing! I ordered a Lucroy BP jersey!

[Oldcity]

He's not an elite talent, and he has actually been below average offensively in each season.

Catchers in general are below average hitters. He has been a little worse than the average NL catcher hitting but not by much.

 

AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS

AL 0.238/0.305/0.391/0.696

NL 0.250/0.320/0.388/0.708

MLB 0.245/0.313/0.389/0.702

Lucroy 0.265/0.313/0.391/0.703

 

Yes, that is exactly what I was referring too. I said he's actually been below average offensively. You only proved my point.

[Oldcity]

This really surprised me

 

But any extra offensive production from Lucroy will be gravy at this point. His glovework provides immense value to the Brewers’ pitching staff. According to Mike Fast’s seminal work on catchers framing pitches, only Jose Molina betters Lucroy on a per-game basis. Lucroy’s ability to get umpires to call strikes saves 24 runs per 120 games – similar to the impact of an All-Star level bat.

 

-Jack Moore

 

This is the type of thing that won't show up in arbitration anyway. They look at archaic things like RBI, so it shouldn't be used in defense of this extension.

 

Invader3K said:

"He's not an elite talente"

 

Not elite, but he's still one of the best catchers in the NL right now. Even halfway decent catchers don't grow on trees, which is why guys like Rod Barajas still have a job in 2012.

 

He's definitely not one of the best catchers in the NL. He was tied for 12th in the NL in WAR among catchers. Kottaras had half the WAR as Lucroy in 1/4 the plate appearances.

[logan82]

I guess I am not sure why that is a problem since he plays catcher.

[dlk9s]

He's not an elite talent, and he has actually been below average offensively in each season.

Catchers in general are below average hitters. He has been a little worse than the average NL catcher hitting but not by much.

 

AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS

AL 0.238/0.305/0.391/0.696

NL 0.250/0.320/0.388/0.708

MLB 0.245/0.313/0.389/0.702

Lucroy 0.265/0.313/0.391/0.703

 

Yes, that is exactly what I was referring too. I said he's actually been below average offensively. You only proved my point.

 

You're talking like this some big "gotcha," like he's been so poor offensively. The difference between his numbers and the NL average is so small that I can't see how it is at all meaningful to say he's "below average." He's pretty much right at the average.

[dlk9s]

This is the type of thing that won't show up in arbitration anyway. They look at archaic things like RBI, so it shouldn't be used in defense of this extension.

 

Out of curiosity, do you know this for a fact? Like, there's pretty much no way that a player and his agent would research every stat, every comparison, and every analysis and then pick the most positive things to use at the hearing? I would be shocked if, say, Lucroy was going to an arby hearing this week and he didn't have that Fangraphs piece printed in triplicate. But maybe I'm being totally naive.

[Oldcity]

The reason for pointing out that he's average-ish offensively is to question the reason for this contract in the first place. It's not so difficult to find a 2 WAR catcher that they need to guarantee money to someone who hasn't even done that yet for the next five years.

[Oldcity]

This is the type of thing that won't show up in arbitration anyway. They look at archaic things like RBI, so it shouldn't be used in defense of this extension.

 

Out of curiosity, do you know this for a fact? Like, there's pretty much no way that a player and his agent would research every stat, every comparison, and every analysis and then pick the most positive things to use at the hearing? I would be shocked if, say, Lucroy was going to an arby hearing this week and he didn't have that Fangraphs piece printed in triplicate. But maybe I'm being totally naive.

Arbitration rulings are based on Elias, which uses the crappy RBI type stats.

[igor67]

Given the years and amount I think this should work out pretty well for the Crew. If Lucroy happens to have a 20 HR season or hit .300 at some point then it becomes a steal, just due to the inflated arbitration price that would bring. With the rather good amount of pitch framing skill, I think that puts LuCroy in the the top 1/2 to 1/3 of catchers. My concern methodologically, is that we seem to be finally making some progress more accurately measuring catcher defense (which seemed like the ultimate black hole of measurements back in the early Brewerfan days). The thing is that there are so many distinct catcher skills, framing, game calling, throwing, and blocking that looking at just one and pronouncing him a well above average defensive catcher is not the best approach. In rushing through some of that it seemed like he was middle of the road to slightly below average in some of the other skills. His framing is so good I'm sure he is an overall net plus with the glove, but it may not be as dramatic looking when all of the defensive skills are tallied in. Still there is a fair amount of value in having a guy who is solid across the board and one who might still improve noticeably in a few areas.

[MNBrew]

I like this deal a lot.

 

Digressing into minutae....In the points below, I don't get the assertion that he's "below average." All Lucroy numbers are at or above AL & MLB averages, and only his .313 OBP & .703 OPS are below the NL averages, and even then only by a mere .007 & .005, respectively.

 

His BA is 15 points above the NL average -- quite solid.

His OBP is microscopically below NL average -- not terrible but obviously room to grow in the BB department.

His power is microscopically above NL average -- essentially a push.

His OPS is microscopically below NL average -- essentially a push.

 

Overall, I'd say "league average" at worst thus far.

 

He's not an elite talent, and he has actually been below average offensively in each season.

Catchers in general are below average hitters. He has been a little worse than the average NL catcher hitting but not by much.

 

AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS

AL 0.238/0.305/0.391/0.696

NL 0.250/0.320/0.388/0.708

MLB 0.245/0.313/0.389/0.702

Lucroy 0.265/0.313/0.391/0.703

 

Yes, that is exactly what I was referring too. I said he's actually been below average offensively. You only proved my point.

[Oldcity]

I would have no issue with someone calling him an average catcher, but that doesn't change the fact that I didn't see a need to guarantee this money. I don't expect him to break the bank at any point, and he's under Brewer control that entire time either way.

 

I don't hate this deal or anything close to that. Just that I don't really see a need for it.

[umphrey]

Average catchers are not easy to find. 2013 UDFAs:

 

 

Catchers

Rod Barajas (37) - $3.5MM club option, no buyout

Josh Bard (35)

Henry Blanco (41) - $1.24MM mutual option

Ryan Doumit (32)

Koyie Hill (34)

Chris Iannetta (30) - $5MM club option with a $250K buyout; player can void

Gerald Laird (33)

Russell Martin (30)

Jeff Mathis (30)

Brian McCann (29) - $12MM club option with a $500K buyout

Jose Molina (37) - $1.5MM club option with a $300K buyout

Miguel Montero (29)

Mike Napoli (31)

Dioner Navarro (29)

Wil Nieves (35)

Miguel Olivo (34) - $3MM club option with a $750K buyout

Ronny Paulino (32)

A.J. Pierzynski (36)

Humberto Quintero (33)

David Ross (36)

Carlos Ruiz (34) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Brian Schneider (36)

Kelly Shoppach (33)

Chris Snyder (32) - mutual option

Yorvit Torrealba (34)

Matt Treanor (37)

[Eye Black]

18 MLB Catchers made $3 million or more last season. Seems like a safe bet the Brewers will be getting value at the Catcher position for the next 5 years.

[Schlitz001]

From the perspective of a Brewers fan who has seen a revolving door of catchers since the turn of the millenium (*cough* Johnny Estrada), it's nice to have Lucroy cost controlled for the next 5 years. It certainly wasn't necessary, but if Lucroy turns into Mario Mendoza at the plate tomorrow, losing $11 million over 5 years isn't the end of the world. On the other hand, Lucroy still has the potential to outperform this contract and the fangraphs article points out some of his more hidden talents.

[GAME05]

i can only think that his ability to call pitches/games will improve as he matures, too, making him all the more valuable.

[Moose]

I think this has to be a good deal. You all made excellent points regarding past stats. We also have to remember that Lucroy is only 25, the Brewers control his salary through his prime, and that two years ago he was in AA. If we can see similar improvement that Luc had from 2010-2011 he would be a playing hitting .275, with a .330 OBP. If he could walk a little more and K a little less he will be a great deal. Plus, he get down the squeeze bunt like no other. Time to get a Luc jersey!

[gregmag]

This really surprised me

 

But any extra offensive production from Lucroy will be gravy at this point. His glovework provides immense value to the Brewers’ pitching staff. According to Mike Fast’s seminal work on catchers framing pitches, only Jose Molina betters Lucroy on a per-game basis. Lucroy’s ability to get umpires to call strikes saves 24 runs per 120 games – similar to the impact of an All-Star level bat.

 

-Jack Moore

 

This is the type of thing that won't show up in arbitration anyway. They look at archaic things like RBI, so it shouldn't be used in defense of this extension.

 

This statement makes absolutely no logical sense. You pay a player based on what you think he's worth to you, based on the best information you have available to you. Maybe I'm mistaken and you've argued a lot of arbitration cases, but I think assuming that an adversarial process won't take available, meaningful information into account is a bad bet. Do you really think Lucroy's agent doesn't read Fangraphs?

 

Anyway, you're bent on defending a set viewpoint, and damn the complications. I think your point that Lucroy has been nothing special offensively is demonstrably true, but you're willfully disregarding quite a few sound points that people here have made about why this nonetheless may be a very good deal for the Brewers.

[dlk9s]

Look, here's the bottom line.

 

Lucroy has shown to be a decent enough hitter in his 200 games so far in the majors and the Brewers management almost certainly believes he can/will improve based on his minor league success and his (though I'm obviously not privy to this) strong work ethic. Overall, he's been pretty solid defensively, too. His ability to throw out base runners still needs work, but he was tremendous at blocking balls and helping his pitchers get strikes. From everything I can tell, he seems to be quickly developing into a team leader, as well.

 

All that adds up to Lucroy being a guy the Brewers would like to hang onto for a while. The team is taking a small risk that they are wasting money if he doesn't develop any further in exchange for cost certainty and a possible long-term bargain and he is potentially sacrificing a bigger payday for salary security. On the Brewers' end, it's a pretty minimal risk with a hell of a lot more upside than downside. Makes total sense.

[Oldcity]

This really surprised me

 

This is the type of thing that won't show up in arbitration anyway. They look at archaic things like RBI, so it shouldn't be used in defense of this extension.

 

This statement makes absolutely no logical sense. You pay a player based on what you think he's worth to you, based on the best information you have available to you. Maybe I'm mistaken and you've argued a lot of arbitration cases, but I think assuming that an adversarial process won't take available, meaningful information into account is a bad bet. Do you really think Lucroy's agent doesn't read Fangraphs?

 

Anyway, you're bent on defending a set viewpoint, and damn the complications. I think your point that Lucroy has been nothing special offensively is demonstrably true, but you're willfully disregarding quite a few sound points that people here have made about why this nonetheless may be a very good deal for the Brewers.

 

I'm not bent on anything. I said earlier that I don't hate this deal or anything, just that I don't see the need for it. And I'm not disregarding points. I am not disputing that he does a fine job framing pitches.

 

And I'm realizing now that I confused arbitration hearings with Type A free agents. The Type A rankings use the Elias stats, not arbitration hearings. My mistake and apologies.

[topper09er]

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but seriously what is his deal with Randy Wolf? They say Wolf has complicated signs, but is Lucroy too stupid to figure them out? What does Kottaras do with Wolf that Lucroy can't? Was it possible that Wolf just did not want to deal with a rookie's learning curve, or might Lucroy have problems with other pitchers' signs down the road.

 

Also, when Marcum gave up the granny to Paul Goldschmidt he threw his glove like a 10 year old, but I seem to remember him having to call Lucroy to the mound that AB because of the signs. I remember thinking Marcum looked pissed at Lucroy even though he just gave up a grand slam.

[MJLiverock]

I can see both sides of the reaction and really don't think either is wrong. Lucroy is an average catcher, nothing wrong with that, I'll take it in comparison to the guys the Brewers have used regularly in the last 15 years. He is young has some upside. I don't agree with the statements claiming he is one of the best catchers in the league, I think that is what draws out some of the criticisms from people, the over statement of his results, probably because he is better than past Brewer catchers. He is a solid option, doesn't do anything really exceptional (the framing thing could be one, but hard to really measure and compare).

 

While it is nice to have certainty, the Brewers didn't really lock him up, he was already controlled for 4 more years. While true that average catchers are getting $3-$4MM a year, Lucroy wasn't going to be getting that until his later arbitration years.

I am glad that according to some reports the team is getting a 5th year, that first free agency year. If I was going to buy out all the arby years I would want to get at least that first year of free agency. That is where the real upside for the Brewers probably lies. I have no problem with the deal, but Lucroy was going to be here regardless of doing this, but if they got an additional year then great because an average catcher in 4 or 5 years during his final arby or first year of FA, will probably cost $5MM per.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lucroy's ability to get strikes called for his pitchers is undeniably valuable, but he's not a good hitter (yet), & his arm leaves a lot to be desired. I like the guy, but I'm not sure I see the need for this contract. The Brewers don't even get a year of free agency.

 

EDIT: D'oh. One year of free agency. Nevermind on that part.

[Baldkin]

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but seriously what is his deal with Randy Wolf? They say Wolf has complicated signs, but is Lucroy too stupid to figure them out? What does Kottaras do with Wolf that Lucroy can't? Was it possible that Wolf just did not want to deal with a rookie's learning curve, or might Lucroy have problems with other pitchers' signs down the road.

 

Lucroy never got to catch Wolf in ST before this season.

I can see why Wolf wouldn't want him learning his habits and rhythms on the fly during the regular season.

[brewmann04]

good move people forget the issues we had with Catcher before Lucroy Arrived.

[topper09er]

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but seriously what is his deal with Randy Wolf? They say Wolf has complicated signs, but is Lucroy too stupid to figure them out? What does Kottaras do with Wolf that Lucroy can't? Was it possible that Wolf just did not want to deal with a rookie's learning curve, or might Lucroy have problems with other pitchers' signs down the road.

 

Lucroy never got to catch Wolf in ST before this season.

I can see why Wolf wouldn't want him learning his habits and rhythms on the fly during the regular season.

 

Still, how hard could it be? Cant he just catch a few side sessions and get it down?