What if with Aoki, and Logan Schaefer's potential....

[3and2Fastball]

First of all, thank you for this fantastic resource and entertaining and informative forum. You all *rock* more than Week's bat as he awaits a pitch.... I'm a die-hard Brewers fanatic

 

My questions are in regards to Nori Aoki and how his development or lack thereof somewhat relates to

Logan Schaefer: it is clear that no-one really knows what the Brewers have in Aoki. If it turns out that he cannot hit MLB pitching (so far in an extremely small sample he hasn't) can the Brewers send him to Nashville?

 

The Brewers seem to at least know a little of what they have in Schaefer: great glove, and some potential with the bat. He could be the Brewers center-fielder of the future and if he continues to develop he and Gindl could make Gomez & Morgan expendable by the spring of 2013.

 

With Corey Hart possibly/likely to be out for the first week or three of the season, isn't it a huge roll of the dice to go with Aoki if he continues to struggle at the plate in the spring? I know it isn't wise to put too much stock in spring training stats usually, but with Aoki that is all we have to go on. Wouldn't it be wiser to go with Schaefer or even Gindl and send Aoki to Nashville (again I don't even know if that is an option, I suppose it should be)

 

Interested in your thoughts. Thank you

[Ennder]

Well if Hart starts on the DL I have to assume they keep a RH OF on the roster. Hart being on the DL frees up an extra spot and they already said they would go with 1 fewer pitcher early because of the extra days off. I'm not sure who that hitter will be but I don't think they have to rely on Aoki as a starter. Gomez can start full time and Morgan vs RHP, they just need to have someone else to start vs LHP.

[3and2Fastball]

I actually like the idea of Gomez starting full-time because of his defense. My concern is that Aoki might not be able to hit, period. If he's a guy off the bench or getting spot starts, I don't think he should be placed in that position until he can actually show that he can hit MLB pitching or AAA pitching.

[3and2Fastball]

Well if Hart starts on the DL I have to assume they keep a RH OF on the roster.

 

Who would that be, in that case? Schaefer & Gindl (and Aoki) are all LH hitters

[logan82]

With Aoki and Morgan on the roster, Gomez should never see RHP except late in games. Gomez is not a good hitter at all.

[Ennder]

With Aoki and Morgan on the roster, Gomez should never see RHP except late in games. Gomez is not a good hitter at all.

 

That is true unless Aoki looks horrible but even then they would probably bring up a prospect to do it. But the defense plays enough that he can do it for a week or two if need be.

[YEP]

We should probably give Aoki a bit more time before we decide he is terrible...

[Ennder]

We should probably give Aoki a bit more time before we decide he is terrible...

 

Nobody said otherwise, it was a what if question.

[CheezWizHed]

I know it isn't wise to put too much stock in spring training stats usually, but with Aoki that is all we have to go on.

 

Don't forget his years of Japanese stats. I'm not sure how Japanese competition compares with the MLB or AAA (I'm guessing somewhere in-between). But he really has more of a track record than Schafer.

 

The Brewers didn't spend millions on Aoki to give him 40 ABs and send him to AAA. He will have a longer leash than that. If ST stats meant all that much, we would just bring back Jeremy Reed.

[JohnBriggs12]

My feeling on Aoki is that he was brought in to be this years Kotsay, not to win the everyday CF job. In other words, a utility OF/PH who will give them professional AB's late in games and fill in anywhere in the OF. He doesn't have much power but his .408 lifetime OBP suggests he won't give up AB's either. A handful of AB's in 2 weeks in Arizona is completely meaningless.

 

Schafer is the guy to watch in this battle. If they think he's ready, then they should make a spot for him even if that means shipping out Morgan for minimal return. I'm not as down on Gomez as most. He adds something to the mix and platooning him with a young player like Schafer makes sense.

[endaround]

Up until he got to the PCL Schafer showed no power. Lets hold off on disregarding everything scouts have said based on less than 200ABs in a hitters league.

[monty57]

It's kind of funny that Yu Darvish is considered the second coming due to his play in Japan, but when it comes to Aoki it's looked upon as if he's never played past little league. He was a superstar in Japan, and although there may be an adjustment period he should be a decent player. That said, I like him much more as a CF than a RF, as his skillset seems to be good defense but weak arm, good OBP but little power... not really your prototypical MLB RF.

 

While I like Aoki, his signing confuses me. He seems to have been signed at least partially due to the Braun situation, but now that Braun's playing but Hart may miss some time, Morgan is being slated as the starting RF with Gomez in CF and Aoki on the bench. Briggs could well be right that Aoki will be "this year's Kotsay," but why commit around $10MM when "this year's Kotsay" probably could have been had for one-year/$800k? To me, Aoki's potential is to be a better Nyjer Morgan who can also hit lefties, but since we already have Morgan and Gomez, with Schafer probably MLB ready right now, Aoki seems to me to be an odd signing. Again, I like Aoki, but if all he is is a 5th OF/pinch hitter/defensive sub, I would far rather have signed a RH corner OF for $800k or so.

 

Since we signed Aoki, and have Gomez on the roster and Schafer in AAA, I'm for trading Morgan and picking up (either in the Morgan trade or elsewhere) a RH hitting corner OF. Gomez and Aoki could then platoon in CF until the Brewers are ready to bring Schafer up (I wouldn't mind playing Schafer now, but I highly doubt that happens), and the RH corner OF and Gindl could platoon in RF for the week or so that Hart may miss, and then Gindl can go back to AAA and the RH corner OF can be our #1 bat off the bench.

 

Instead, we'll put Gomez full time in CF and Morgan full time in RF and the Brewerfan board will light up every time Gomez faces a righty or Morgan faces a lefty. Aoki can collect his $2.5MM/yaer to pick up 200 or so PAs a year.

[3and2Fastball]

There really haven't been very many Japanese hitters in MLB and most of them have pretty glaring discrepancies between their Japan stats and MLB stats. The most glaring example, of course is:

 

Tsuyoshi Nishioka of the Twins, who put up a .226 BA and a scary bad .278 OBP last season. This was after hitting .346 with a .423 OBP in Japan in 2010! (Nishioka has a career .380 OBP in Japan)

 

Kosuke Fukudome had a .443 OBP and .963 OPS in Japan in 2007, his MLB OBP has been a solid .360 but with just a career .760 OPS.

 

I wasn't able to find So Taguchi's complete Japan stats, but his batting average in Japan appears to be fairly similar to his MLB stats (career .279 BA, .331 OBP in MLB)

 

Tadahito Iguchi provides interesting insight: before coming to MLB, Iguchi's last two years in Japan he hit .340 with 27 HR's and 109 RBI's in 2003 and hit .333 with 24 HR's and 89 RBI's in 2004 (both seasons in Japan). He had a couple of fairly productive seasons with the White Sox in 2005-2006 before bottoming out in 2008 with a .232 BA and .292 OBP (his career MLB BA was .268 with a .338 OBP). Really not awful career stats by any means, but what is interesting is that has since gone back to Japan and in the last 3 seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) he has posted a .281 BA and .389 OBP in Japan. In 2009, the season after hitting .232 with a .292 OBP in MLB, Iguchi hit .281 with a .391 OBP in Japan! The next season he hit 17 HR's, drove in 103 with a .412 OBP

 

Akinori Iwamura put up OK to pretty good MLB stats (he got on base well), .267 BA, .345 OBP but only a .720 career OPS. What is interesting about him is his huge power drop off coming to MLB: this is a guy who hit 44 HR's in 2004, 30 HR's in 2005, and 32 HR's in 2006 (all in Japan, with batting averages over .300 each of those years), then he goes to MLB and hits 7 HR's with Tampa and a .770 in 2007 (his age 28 year). .729 OPS the next season and 6 HR's

 

Kazuo Matsui posted a .267 BA, .321 OBP, and .701 OPS in his MLB career. 32 career HR's in 7 seasons. Kazuo Matsui hit 33 HR's in 2003 alone in Japan. (in 2002 he hit 36 HR's with a .332 BA in Japan). Kazuo Matsui had 7 straight seasons of batting over .300 in Japan until coming over to MLB in his age 28 season

 

Of course, Ichiro and Hideki Matsui have been very good to great MLB ballplayers. But even Ichiro had elevated stats (especially power stats) in Japan http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=ichiro

 

Check out Hideki Matsui's Japan stats, the guy was hitting like Mickey Mantle over there http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=matsui

 

My point here is not at all intended to be racially motivated. It is more that Japanese stats, so far, should be taken with a grain of salt and might be a lot more comparable to US college baseball stats than AAA or AA stats

[monty57]

No doubt the talent is much better over here. I just think it's funny that people (nationally, I'm not picking on anyone here) are so high on the top pitcher, but so low on the top hitter.

 

As I mentioned, I'm not looking for miracles from Aoki. From what I've heard, I'm kind of envisioning something similar to a Nyjer Morgan who can hold his own against LHP. Defense is defense, so if he played phenomonal defense in Japan, I expect the same here. He supposedly has a weak arm, makes good contact and gets on base, but has limited power. I just wonder why we signed the Japanese version of Nyjer Morgan when we already have Nyjer Morgan.

 

By the way, welcome to Brewerfan.

[3and2Fastball]

By the way, welcome to Brewerfan.

 

Thanks so much. This place is awesome.

 

I'd be thrilled and pretty surprised if Aoki turns out to be as good as Morgan. I'm not a huge Morgan fan due to his antics but there is no denying his production on the field. A .363 career OBP vs RHP in MLB is very helpful to any team. And Morgan had a .370 career OBP as a minor-leaguer (vs both RHP & LHP). I wasn't able to find Morgan's minor league splits but I bet they are off the charts!

[Ennder]

To be fair Nishioka had a pretty terrible injury early in the season so not sure he is the best person to compare. Fukudome produced about what I expected against RHP but he never did figure out how to hit LHP.

 

I don't expect much out of Aoki myself because MLB is a power and patience game and those aren't his strengths.

[TooLiveBrew]

My feeling on Aoki is that he was brought in to be this years Kotsay, not to win the everyday CF job. In other words, a utility OF/PH who will give them professional AB's late in games and fill in anywhere in the OF. He doesn't have much power but his .408 lifetime OBP suggests he won't give up AB's either. A handful of AB's in 2 weeks in Arizona is completely meaningless.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the Kotsay-role note. The thing I like about Aoki is that he's actually going to be good to have playing defense, and he'll probably be able to hit like Kotsay in a worst-case scenario. But I also agree with you that it's far more likely that he's going to turn in solid at-bats, as he has his whole career. Morgan is proof that you don't need to have tons of raw power or a huge BB rate to be an effective (complementary) hitter.

 

I'm not as down on Gomez as most. He adds something to the mix and platooning him with a young player like Schafer makes sense.

I think "most" here have been advocating Gomez as the small half of a CF platoon for some time now.

[JohnBriggs12]

monty57,

 

I think they bid on Aoki strictly because of the Braun situation. But even if you count that $2.5 million, they are only committed to another $2.5 million over the next 2 years for a total of $5 million, not $10 million. The rest is all performance bonuses (which I assume if he plays only as much as Kotsay, he won't reach anyway) and option year salary and bonuses for 2014 which he likely will never see. Bottom line is he has to be clearly better than the other options to earn those bonuses and nothing we've seen so far suggests that he is.

 

Schafer on the other hand could be forcing their hands a bit. At 26 (he'll be 27 in September) does it make any sense to have him sit in AAA at the expense of Nyjer Morgan? Morgan is a good major league player, but he's not Prince Fielder either. Fielder would block anyone, but not so much Morgan. If you really project Schafer to be an everyday major league CF, now (or by June at the latest) is the time to put him out there.

[monty57]

I don't expect much out of Aoki myself because MLB is a power and patience game and those aren't his strengths.

 

But it's morphing into a defense and OBP game, and those are his strengths. At least they're supposed to be... we'll have to see how it actually plays out. Personally, I doubt he'll get enough PAs this year to prove anything one way or the other. Roenicke has already said he plans on playing Morgan in RF and Gomez in CF while (if) Hart is out. Switch-hitting Conrad is rumored to be on the short-list to make the 25-man roster, so he will be the #1 bat off the bench. Why did we spend so much money to sign Aoki to a multi-year deal to be a 5th OF?

 

On a side note, I think with Fielder gone, Morgan is going to LOOGY'd to death this season. I wouldn't doubt if close to 1/3 of his PA's come against LHP, especially if Roenicke continues his late-2011 trend of using Gomez and Morgan as late-inning defensive replacements for Hart.

[TooLiveBrew]

Schafer on the other hand could be forcing their hands a bit. At 26 (he'll be 27 in September) does it make any sense to have him sit in AAA at the expense of Nyjer Morgan? Morgan is a good major league player, but he's not Prince Fielder either. Fielder would block anyone, but not so much Morgan. If you really project Schafer to be an everyday major league CF, now (or by June at the latest) is the time to put him out there.

 

I think you're right, & it really seems that Doug Melvin freezes when faced with what to do about a young player who's looking ready for MLB. If he can learn to not panic about young players, the Brewers currently have a lot of guys who could cheaply fill the complementary roles. But instead, he spends millions on a player in Aoki that he hadn't even sent a scout to see?

[JohnBriggs12]

My mistake. I had Schafer a year older. He's 25 and will be 26 in Sept.

 

Still if the Brewers see him as a starting CF, and see him as ready now, you make room for him in the very near future if not now.

 

If they see him as a 4th or 5th outfielder tops, then you keep Morgan another year.

[Madtown343]

I think if a team blew you away with an offer for Morgan I would move him. Otherwise Logan can benefit from a first half at AAA.

[3and2Fastball]

Aoki had a good at-bat in the Angels game, worked the count to 3-2 after fouling of a 0-1 bunt attempt, fouled off a few and then got a solid single up the middle on a tough pitch. He has such a bizarre swing, with his back almost turned to the pitcher, the front leg kicking up as high as the knee of his back leg and then it looks like he's almost falling backwards as he swings....

 

I really hope he becomes a solid player. I remain convinced that he'd be better off starting the season playing every day in AAA