Mark Rogers

[endaround]

Rogers inability to stay healthy has doomed him starting.

[jerichoholicninja]

and if he takes the Santana path will be 30 (and I believe a free agent) by the time he's a full time starter.

 

[sarcasm]Yes, because we will be forced to do exactly what Santana did, because all SPs that move to the BP follow that exact path.[/sarcasm]

 

How about you try not to take things quite so literally? I posed the Santana example because he represents a SP that started out at the MLB level in the BP. Not because Rogers will do exactly the same, nor that he is exactly the same age, nor because he should go to the BP for exactly the same reason...

 

People were insinuating that moving Rogers to the BP signaled an end to him being able to start, ever. I was simply trying to show that it wasn't necessarily true.

 

I wasn't taking it literally I was trying to point out that Santana was much younger than Rogers is. Santana still had a few years to develop. Rogers doesn't have many, if any, developing years left. Now it's just about how to keep him healthy.

[reillymcshane]

The thing with Rogers is that even when healthy he wasn't a very good starter. He doesn't have three or four pitches he can throw consistently. It leads to a lot of balls, high walk rates, etc. He'd be done as a starter in 5 innings because he'd already thrown his pitch limit.

 

That is why i think he should be a reliever. Let him focus on mastering two pitches instead of three or four.

 

I will say this about Rogers - I don't recall his repertoire very well since it's been so long since I've seen him pitch. But if I recall, he seemed to struggle with his secondary pitches. Perhaps that's wrong. But I like the idea of simplifying things for him. I also wonder if it will help his arm, since he doesn't have to throw as many taxing pitches.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/143104846.html

Like it or not, Rogers was optioned to AAA Nashville today and will be stretched out as a starter. Personally, I'd rather have him as a reliever.

[paul253]

That last line of the article was right. The rotation should be pretty good in Nashville. You'd figure Peralta and Fiers would be 1 and 2 in some order. Rogers, Rivas, Scarpetta competing for the other spots.

[PrinceEatMeat]

That's true. I bet Nashville will do very well this year just because of their rotation.

[brewmann04]

who be the 5 guy since Scarpetta went to huntsville

[3and2Fastball]

Rogers sure made Torii Hunter look silly in one at-bat on Saturday. As everyone has said, he's got the talent, the question is whether he can stay healthy.

 

It is in the Brewers best interests for 2013 to keep Peralta, Rogers, Fiers, Rivas, Scarpetta and others stretched out and evaluated as starters, because it is likely that at least 2 of Marcum, Wolf & Greinke will be gone next season.

[HiAndTight]

The guy is finally healthy heading into spring.

 

I think the main point of putting him in the BP is to keep him that way. He keeps coming in healthy then having problems. Maybe the starter's work load isn't the problem, maybe it is.

 

With these SPs that consistently have injury histories, I don't see any harm in sticking them in the BP for a year or two and seeing how he holds up. Then you can revisit him as a starter later.

 

Johan Santana was moved to the BP because of a Rule V player, but it also helped him get used to the MLB batters before going back to starting the next year.

 

 

 

Probably the exception, not the rule. But regardless. I see Tyler Thornburg who has had no issues with healthy, Wily Peralta, a workhorse who has a history in '07 a TJ surgery. Scarpetta...very little injury concern. Bradley and Jugnman, not much injury history.

 

MY personal favorite Brooks Hall who has been pampered.

 

So with a long list of nice AAA starters(and I ALWAYS FRIGGIN FORGET FIERS) there is no shame in just leaving him in the pen and even pampering him in there. If the 8th and 9th are locked down, and you throw Rogers into the equation, there is no reason he can't play a Saito type role this year in that we don't pitch him on back to back's, take it easy on him, don't get him up and sit him down 3 times a game...etc..etc...

[paul253]

there is no shame in just leaving him in the pen and even pampering him in there

 

I can certainly understand why people want to move him, but I think his value would diminish greatly if he does. Let's assume for a minute that he stays healthy all of 2013 (a big assumption I know) but with likely 2 rotation spots open in 2013 he is probably a good choice to fill one of them. Jungmann and Bradley are just too far away to be considered I think. If Rogers is moved into the bullpen, he's at best a 7th inning guy. And considering he's been starting his entire life, he may not just automatically pick up relief pitching and having to pitch 2 or 3 days in a row. We've kept him as a starter through all of his shoulder injuries. I say give him one more shot this season and if he doesn't cut it, then give him a chance to make the bullpen next season. The guy still has #2 type stuff. He just needs to learn that he doesn't have to strike every batter out.

[HiAndTight]

and if he takes the Santana path will be 30 (and I believe a free agent) by the time he's a full time starter.

 

[sarcasm]Yes, because we will be forced to do exactly what Santana did, because all SPs that move to the BP follow that exact path.[/sarcasm]

 

How about you try not to take things quite so literally? I posed the Santana example because he represents a SP that started out at the MLB level in the BP. Not because Rogers will do exactly the same, nor that he is exactly the same age, nor because he should go to the BP for exactly the same reason...

 

People were insinuating that moving Rogers to the BP signaled an end to him being able to start, ever. I was simply trying to show that it wasn't necessarily true.

 

 

Nor do I think anyone expects him to actually become Johan Santana.

 

The point was rather obvious I thought.

[HiAndTight]

there is no shame in just leaving him in the pen and even pampering him in there

 

I can certainly understand why people want to move him, but I think his value would diminish greatly if he does. Let's assume for a minute that he stays healthy all of 2013 (a big assumption I know) but with likely 2 rotation spots open in 2013 he is probably a good choice to fill one of them. Jungmann and Bradley are just too far away to be considered I think. If Rogers is moved into the bullpen, he's at best a 7th inning guy. And considering he's been starting his entire life, he may not just automatically pick up relief pitching and having to pitch 2 or 3 days in a row. We've kept him as a starter through all of his shoulder injuries. I say give him one more shot this season and if he doesn't cut it, then give him a chance to make the bullpen next season. The guy still has #2 type stuff. He just needs to learn that he doesn't have to strike every batter out.

 

 

 

I don't see Mark Rogers having any actual value right now to begin with, so losing "value," is a pretty relative term. If you get anything out of him this year, that's more value than he's previously had.

 

And saying he's "at best," a 7th inning guy...I don't understand where that possibly fits into the argument. That's got nothing to do with him and everything to do with who we've already got there. That doesn't mean he wouldn't be incredibly valuable in there. Having deep bullpen is more important today than ever before. I'd love to have 3 legit shutdown relievers, Loe someone who can handle lefties, and then a long man in Estrada/Parra. Obviously having Braddock as that loogy would be ideal.

 

And next year we should have several more minor league pitches ready to contribute. Peralta, Thornburg and an array of relievers should be kicking down the big league door.

 

Provided each continue to progress, and there isn't much reason to think either won't, we could do a lot worse than Greinke/Gallardo/Peralta/Thornburg and Narveson. And Scarpetta's a darkhorse IMO to step up this year and be ready to be a 6th or 7th option next year.

[paul253]

I don't see Mark Rogers having any actual value right now to begin with, so losing "value," is a pretty relative term. If you get anything out of him this year, that's more value than he's previously had.

 

If he has no value to begin with then why not just release him now and be done with it? Of course he has value. The guy obviously has talent and was drafted with the ceiling of a #1 pitcher. Injuries have set him back but it's not like the Mike Jones situation where he has lost 10 mph on his fastball and just doesn't have the talent to succeed anymore. Last year he had some freakish injury that you hardly ever see. The year before that he was healthy all year and even started a few games in the majors. While he is still a health risk, his shoulder has held up for two years now. If it holds up for a third year in a row, he's a viable candidate for the starting rotation next season when we could lose 3 guys, assuming he can fix his control issues a bit.

And saying he's "at best," a 7th inning guy...I don't understand where that possibly fits into the argument.

 

It fits in because you have to compare the value of a starting pitcher vs a middle reliever. If he succeeds as a starter this year and can hold down the #5 spot in 2013, he's much more valuable to the team than if he is a 6th or 7th inning reliever. Relievers are a lot easier to find that starters and a lot cheaper too. So why move Rogers to middle relief when he still has a viable shot at being a somewhat successful starting pitcher? Beside, it's not like if he fails at starting this season he can't move to the bullpen next season.

And next year we should have several more minor league pitches ready to contribute. Peralta, Thornburg and an array of relievers should be kicking down the big league door.

 

And if they pan out they can compete for the rotation as well. Thornburg may possibly be ready but realistically, especially the way this organization carries itself, 2014 is a much more realistic option. He's only started 12 games above A ball so far. 2014 at the earliest, more likely 2015, is what I expect for Jungmann and Bradley. Scarpetta has really struggled with his control and hasn't even moved past AA yet so 2013 seems like a stretch for him as well. That leaves Peralta and Fiers for 2013. I like those two as much as anyone and of course they should be given the chance to win a starting job. But I'm not ready to just hand them the job in 2013 and not even let Rogers compete.

[CheezWizHed]

It fits in because you have to compare the value of a starting pitcher vs a middle reliever. If he succeeds as a starter this year and can hold down the #5 spot in 2013, he's much more valuable to the team than if he is a 6th or 7th inning reliever. Relievers are a lot easier to find that starters and a lot cheaper too. So why move Rogers to middle relief when he still has a viable shot at being a somewhat successful starting pitcher? Beside, it's not like if he fails at starting this season he can't move to the bullpen next season.

 

Everyone agrees that SPs are more valuable than RPs.

 

But I think most people are saying that Rogers has a 1% chance of staying healthy as an SP and a 50% chance as an RP it makes more sense to put him as an RP.

 

If he is injured, he has no value. Its not a matter of succeeding or failing as an SP anymore. Its about staying healthy.

[paul253]

But I think most people are saying that Rogers has a 1% chance of staying healthy as an SP and a 50% chance as an RP it makes more sense to put him as an RP.

 

No I get that, and I agree. But his shoulder has been fine for two years now. He just had some freak carpel tunnel injury last year. I've never even heard of a player missing time for that. And whose to say he's going to automatically stay healthy as a reliever? Pitching two or three days in a row may not be good for him. If people actually think he only has a 1% chance of staying healthy as a starter then I guess that's where our major disagreement is. I'm certainly not saying he isn't an injury risk, but I definitely think his odds of staying healthy are higher than 1%.

 

I also don't agree with the idea that having him pitch in the majors as a reliever is automatically better than seeing if he can succeed as a starter. For an organization that has such a terrible track record of developing pitchers, I think it's a chance they can afford to take, especially with Peralta and Fiers as fall back options. If he hurts his arm this year, or if he is pitching terribly through the all star break, then sure, move him to the bullpen to see if he does any better. But what happens if you move him to the pen right now and the throws up an ERA of 4.6? That's not all that useful to the organization either. We have plenty of guys who can do that.

 

So I guess to sum up, my disagreement is that I don't agree with the assessment that he's automatically going to get hurt if he continues starting and he's automatically going to stay healthy and succeed if he is moved to the bullpen. I still think he has at least a decent chance at succeeding as a starter and a decent chance is good enough for me to hope they keep him as a starter.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't recall putting "automatically" anywhere in regards to Roger's health. 50% and 1% are just made up numbers (and 50% is far from automatic...).

 

If you read back awhile, I'm actually advocating that we move him to the BP for a year or two. Limit his innings so he has a "better chance" of staying healthy. Anyone pitching him 3 days in a row would be fired immediately. Then after demonstrating he can stay healthy there, you can revisit him starting again. First goal with him should be to stay healthy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rogers has had 8 seasons (6 with any time spent on a mound in game action) to prove his ability to be a healthy & effective starter. To me, thinking he's suddenly going to be able to do it is being too optimistic. Get him in the bullpen in Nashville, get him working late innings & just letting that excellent stuff fly. The Brewers will need another setup man once K-Rod moves on, and I'd love for them to have more options than just overpaying for some other vet.

[HiAndTight]

It fits in because you have to compare the value of a starting pitcher vs a middle reliever. If he succeeds as a starter this year and can hold down the #5 spot in 2013, he's much more valuable to the team than if he is a 6th or 7th inning reliever. Relievers are a lot easier to find that starters and a lot cheaper too. So why move Rogers to middle relief when he still has a viable shot at being a somewhat successful starting pitcher? Beside, it's not like if he fails at starting this season he can't move to the bullpen next season.

 

 

My point is how can you turn around and talk about all this value he has as a starter, how he has the talent to be an ace, and then at the same time say he's "just a middle reliever," in the BP?

 

And it's not like we're the Pirates and we're talking about Gerritt Cole. We're a legitimate contender this year. We've got a plethora of potential starters who don't break down with such consistency.

 

The only reason he'd "only," be a middle reliever is because of who we already have established as a 8th or a 9th inning reliever.

 

And to respond to your last statement, it's also not like we can't move him to the rotation after staying healthy and contributing to the big league team for ONE year. At the very least, it'd be nice to get something out of him at some point. If he can stay healthy as you're suggesting this year, I'd rather use up whatever he has left in that shoulder for the big league club. If he stays healthy, let him compete next year for the rotation.

 

 

As for your statement about having value....I don't want to argue semantics, but he's not a top prospect anymore. He's a guy who's one more injury away from BEING cut as you say. He hasn't done anything for the Brewers yet, and I doubt anyone would give up anything for him. I don't consider a guy like that to have a whole lot of value.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't mind him trying one more year in the minors as an SP or RP. Just let the guy pitch and see what results he can get after the carpal tunnel surgery. If he pitches well, consider him part of the 2013 plans and a possible call up. If not then say goodbye. Either path is fine with me. Just getting anything out of a former 1st round pick is a success at this point.

[paul253]

Just wanted to bump this thread to see how people view Rogers' season. Obviously control has been an issue but his last three starts now have been pretty good. A line of 19 IP 9 hits 2 ER 5 BBS 20ks. If this season goes in the tanks do we give him some starts to see what he has? Do we give him a chance at the rotation next season and if he fails put him in the pen? Does he immediately go to the pen and focus on two pitches to help improve the control? I believe he is out of options so Nashville isn't a possibility. It's Milwaukee or bust in 2013.

 

I was a heavy advocate of letting him start all year and I do nor regret that stance. Unfortunately unless these last three starts are the beginning of a new trend I don't think he has really answered any questions. The good news is obviously his health and I believe this is now his third season in a row without any shoulder or elbow issues. I'd be inclined to let him continue to get starts this season and let him compete for a rotation spot next season with Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. If he fails use him in the pen and tell him to focus on two pitches.

[igor67]

I want to believe, but how many of these poor control guys seem to keep teasing with stretches where they find it? Letting him continue to start in AAA seems pretty easy at least until a starter gets dealt. A bigger question might be how is he used in September?

[paul253]

Can someone who has seen him a couple times help me out with something? Is his control off on all of his pitches? Or is it just his secondary pitches?

[HiAndTight]

Just wanted to bump this thread to see how people view Rogers' season. Obviously control has been an issue but his last three starts now have been pretty good. A line of 19 IP 9 hits 2 ER 5 BBS 20ks. If this season goes in the tanks do we give him some starts to see what he has? Do we give him a chance at the rotation next season and if he fails put him in the pen? Does he immediately go to the pen and focus on two pitches to help improve the control? I believe he is out of options so Nashville isn't a possibility. It's Milwaukee or bust in 2013.

 

I was a heavy advocate of letting him start all year and I do nor regret that stance. Unfortunately unless these last three starts are the beginning of a new trend I don't think he has really answered any questions. The good news is obviously his health and I believe this is now his third season in a row without any shoulder or elbow issues. I'd be inclined to let him continue to get starts this season and let him compete for a rotation spot next season with Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. If he fails use him in the pen and tell him to focus on two pitches.

 

 

I view him differently. He's been dominant, and perhaps last years debacle is behind him and he's back to his 2010 form.

 

Homer Bailey just dominated us after him being a pitching machine for us and suffering a plethora of bumps along the way.

 

I'm not convinced, but I'm a lot more optomistic than last year.

[paul253]

Looks like he'll be to start Sunday. Good for him. Hopefully he keeps the walks and home runs down and has a good game.