PG Brewers top prospect list

[colbyjack]

This year we (Perfect Game) took our first stab at profiling the top 10 prospects for each MLB team, following the 2012 draft order to release those lists. Today the Brewers are finally up, a good thing considering they finished with the 4th best record in all of baseball in 2011.

 

David Rawnsley provides the analysis with a few names not typically found in Brewers' top 10 lists:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6667

[TooLiveBrew]

Pre-reading reaction: Ooh, a Brewers prospect rankings list I can actually get excited about

 

Post-reading:

- This is the most bullish report I've seen on Gennett. Patrick, are you as optimistic as your colleague seems to be? For better or worse, David seems to skip right over Gennett's lack of plate discipline, or at least his poor BB/K ratio thus far. And while citing some strong physical tools, there's also no mention of Gennett's (widely-considered-to-be) subpar defense at 2B.

 

- I'm officially excited about Brooks Hall; really encouraging profile on him at #10

 

- The quality of this report as a whole is really refreshing. This definitely isn't your stock 'stats & hearsay' prospect list.

[paul253]

It's nice to see Top 10 lists with decent comments about each player as opposed to a list thrown together. Nice work on this. I was surprised to see Hall's name on that list. A breakout year by him would be a nice surprise for a system needs some more stars. Hopefully this next draft can produce the same type of talent this past draft did, though the 2011 draft was apparently a once a decade type draft.

[colbyjack]

I was most surprised that David added Fiers, but he was pretty adamant about him being a top 10 guy.

 

And you're right TLB, he didn't address Gennett's defense, but obviously likes him quite a bit offensively. He didn't state it, but I'm sure if you asked him he would tell you that he would expect Gennett's plate discipline to improve as he progresses. I've really liked him as a hitter since his HS days as well, and was pretty excited when they signed him a couple of year ago. I'd probably put Green and Thornburg ahead of him, but it's hard to argue against that placement.

 

I appreciate the feedback. Like I said, this is our first time hitting minor league top prospect lists, as we see almost all of these guys ourselves, and our contacts allow us to find out how they're doing now beyond just the random reports and stats will tell you. I tackled the Pirates, A's, Tigers, Blue Jays and Indians lists, helped with the Reds and still have the Yankees to finish. I was banned from doing the Brewers as we wanted our reports to be as non-biased as possible.

 

Here is our minor league page with links to all of the team-by-team reports if you're interested:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/minors/default.aspx

 

As for the 2012 draft, while the college class isn't as strong, there is some good talent to be had, and in particular the HS OF class could rival that of 2005 (Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce, etc.).

[TooLiveBrew]

Bravo to PG for a very good first crack at MiLB team-by-team top prospect rankings. I'll have to check out the other organizations' rankings, too.

 

 

He didn't state it, but I'm sure if you asked him he would tell you that he would expect Gennett's plate discipline to improve as he progresses.

 

I definitely read that as being implied in his bit on Gennett as well. That is without a doubt, the single most glowing scouting report/prospect review I've seen on Gennett so far. Though I do have to question whatever source David used to get that Scooter is 5'10" & 165 lbs . I admittedly haven't seen him in person since the 2010 season, but then he looked closer to 5'7" & 140 lbs. than 5'10"/165 (I literally did a double-take at how small he was the first time I saw him play in person). I see Baseball Reference currently has him listed at 5'9"/164, but B-Ref's player page weights are notoriously unreliable.

 

 

I've really liked him as a hitter since his HS days as well, and was pretty excited when they signed him a couple of year ago. I'd probably put Green and Thornburg ahead of him, but it's hard to argue against that placement.

 

Interesting, and I appreciate your feedback.

[battlekow]

Thanks for the link, colby.

 

Rawnsley:

 

Bradley is a classic example of why scouts use the word projection so much. He was a skinny left hander at an Alabama high school topping out at 87 mph when he committed to Georgia Tech and went undrafted in 2008. Now he’s a 6-4/225 man topping out in the mid 90s.

Where would Bradley have been taken in 2008 had he not been (as) committed to Georgia Tech?

[Tedaldtada]

I read all of the lists available and I thought they were fantastic. I wish they went 20-30 players deep.

 

I think Thornburg is overlooked by everyone. Saw him pitch yesterday and he was nasty. Lucroy was quoted (by the TV guys yesterday) talking about how Tyler's last bullpen was one of the best he has personally ever seen.

 

Also heard Sedar say he watched Jed Bradley throw on a back field yesterday and he was very impressive.

[LouisEly]

Scooter Gennett's line from Brevard (21 years old, 2nd professional season):

 

.300/.334/.406, 601 PA/35 xbh, 27BB:69K

 

Logan Schafer's line from Brevard (22 years old, 2nd professional season):

 

.313/.369/.446, 505 PA/43 xbh, 38BB:53K

 

Gennett is generally considered to have below average defense at 2B, Schafer is genrally considered to have above average defense at CF.

 

So... who should be #4 and who should be #6?

[TooLiveBrew]

Stats aren't the main reason why Gennett was ranked where he was, I thought that was pretty obvious from reading the entry on Gennett. I agree with you about having Schafer ahead of Gennett, fwiw.

[homer]

Excellent write up. As good if not better than the big boys....and free to boot! I'll be making more trips to PG for sure.

[LouisEly]

Not saying Gennett is a bad player - I did say he should be #6.

 

I'm saying that people undervalue Schafer, and that he's a better hitter than people think.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm saying that people undervalue Schafer, and that he's a better hitter than people think.

I couldn't agree more. And he might actually already be the second-best CF defender in the organization, and there's some pretty good competition with Aoki & Morgan in the mix.

[3and2Fastball]

This is a great article, thank you for it... I do think Caleb Gindl is a Top 5 prospect and I predict he'll be the best of the bunch by the end of their collective careers. A .390 OBP (.862 OPS) as a 22 year old in AAA is very impressive

 

I disagree a little on Peralta, who I think projects to be only a little better than Narveson, but maybe I just haven't seen him at his best yet. Jungman & Bradley look to be legit great prospects.

[nate82]

I'm saying that people undervalue Schafer, and that he's a better hitter than people think.

I couldn't agree more. And he might actually already be the second-best CF defender in the organization, and there's some pretty good competition with Aoki & Morgan in the mix.

 

I wouldn't say he is undervalued. He is what he is. Schafer reminds me a lot of Brady Clark offensively and Bernie Williams defensively. His value will almost always be in his defense playing CF but if Schafer could somehow improve his OBP skills he could be what Bernie Williams was offensively at best but I am going to go with Schafer being more like Brady Clark offensively.

 

Now a note I really love Schafer as a prospect as I see him as a key component for the Brewers going forward but Schafer really is what he is. Schafer is probably a 4th OF or a platoon player (not a bad thing). Schafer may give you a year or two here or there with some really nice numbers but he really isn't anything special.

[TooLiveBrew]

In other words, he's basically Nyjer Morgan, but some people think his defense is or could be better than Nyjer's. And since Morgan is older, more expensive, & coming off a great season, he makes sense to shop.

[endaround]

And most scouts think his defense is just OK and so is a significant downgrade from Morgan.

[TooLiveBrew]

"Most scouts"? I really have never read anything that calls Schafer's defense just "ok". Athletic ability? Yes. Defense? No.

[endaround]

Everything I've seen listed all his tools as decent except for power which he has never really shown until 2nd half of last year. Now some have said he's better than that but Morgan is one of the best defensive CFers in the game. Morgan in a part time role was a 4 win player last year. It is really hard to expect that to be replaced easily.

[LouisEly]

Having seen both Morgan and Schafer play OF in person, I'll say Schafer is just as good as Morgan if you adjust slightly for Schafer having a lot less experience. I watched a split-squad spring training game two weeks ago where Schafer played pretty much the whole game in LF. There was a line drive hit into the left-center gap; Schafer almost ran it down, but even more impressively picked the short-hop off the wall clean and in one motion spun and fired a laser to the SS cut-off guy who was barely off the infield dirt close to 3B to hold the runner at 3B who started the play at 1B. I don't see Morgan making that throw, and I've seen Morgan get turned around on enough balls over his head to say that Morgan is not a significantly better defensive OF than Schafer. Morgan may be better right now, but give Schafer another year or two of experience and he'll be right there.

 

As for power, as I posted above, Schafer had a .446 SLG% in his second year of pro ball at Brevard as a 22-year-old, compared to Gennett's .406 SLG as a 21-year-old at the same level. In the game I watched Schafer was a home run shy of the cycle, and his triple bounced off the CF wall. He should have had a second triple except for an unlucky bounce that kicked off the wall down the right-field line right to the RF; if that ball goes into the corner he has a triple. Keep in mind, Schafer's been hurt the last two years which tends to have an impact on power.