Multi year deal for AX? (Contract renewed 3/2)

[monty57]

MLB Network just announced that Axford's contract was renewed. I'd guess this is a formality, since they're discussing an extension.

[RockCoCougars]

Axford's the best to ever wear a Brewer uniform and it's not close.

 

Plesac was about as good as Axford for a longer period of time. He had filthy stuff until he banged up his arm (in 89?). The save percentage stats don't bear that out, but they weren't as gaudy for anyone back then. I believe Doug Jones had the record with like 16 conversions in a row or something.

[TURBO]

I don't like tying up big $ in a closer, especially a closer we have in control for the next 4-5 years.

 

If he is stil performing in 3 or 4 years, open up talks then...

 

Too much risk to tie up cash in a closer.

[paul253]

None of those guys ever had close to the year Axford had in 2011 or the year and 4 months since he was named closer for that matter. Throw out Fingers strike shortened MVP year and Axford posted the best year by a Brewer closer ever.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that we get rid of him. But he's under team control for what, like 4 more years? He broke out a little later than most and while he had a heck of a year, he'll be in his 30's by the time he can hit free agency. All I was getting at is that you can generally find a cheap closer who can provide you an ERA around 3 relatively easily. There is no need to spend big money on one, especially when you already have him and he is super cheap. The Brewers' finances are stretched thin enough and we desperately need to resign either Greinke or Marcum. There is no point in giving Axford $3 or $4 million dollars a year more than he makes now.

[monty57]

There is no point in giving Axford $3 or $4 million dollars a year more than he makes now.

 

I doubt we'd raise his current salary much. What he'd get out of it is a guarantee. If he gets hurt or flames out, he still gets paid. Therefore, teams can usually get a discount by guaranteeing a contract. It's also a way to get players to "give up" some free agent years, so the team can "control" the player longer. Finally, the team gains cost certainty, so they don't have to wait to see what the player is going to make in arbitration before figuring out how much money they have to spend. All of these are big pluses, and I'm a fan of signing extensions to star players who are still in their pre-arby years.

 

However, in Axford's case, he's old enough that the Brewers already "control" him through his prime, so what the Brewers will likely be buying out are "past the prime" or "decline phase" years. Also, he's in a role which traditionally has a huge flame-out rate. Put these two together, and the Brewers are taking a big risk that they will owe a lot of money to a pitcher to whom they'd rather not be obligated to pay a lot of money.

 

If this deal gets done, we have to hope that Axford is one of those few elite closers who can remain healthy and dominant into their mid-30's.

[dlk9s]

Man I love this guy. This morning he tweeted:

 

"Well at least my ERA is half of what it started at last year! #ThatsAStart"

 

I mean, how can you not love that?

[Madtown343]

Love the confidence. Hope he gets back out there today.

 

That said I am in the group that thinks you go year to year with relievers. Too much variance even with the good ones. I see almost all risk if we go the long term route with only minimal gain.

 

The team has two potential closer type arms in Thornburg and Manzanillo in my opinion at AA-AAA this year.

 

If Ax performs like he has, when his price goes through the roof he may be quite a trade chip too. Look at Bos? What would they pay for a guy like Ax? Ny after Rivera is gone?

 

The list of closers who make it for long stretches is so short. He is with the team for the foreseeable future, let him pitch, and let him earn his money.