Multi year deal for AX? (Contract renewed 3/2)

[markedman5]

I know many here don't like long term deals for closers. As always it depends on the money and years but I've always liked AX. Glad he wants to be a Brewer for life.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/brewers-axford-talking-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Raw Biz]

I just don't understand it from the Brewers perspective. He's already 29 and under control for the next 5 years.

 

edit: I guess if they think he's going to continue to pitch like he did last year and he'll end up costing something like $15 mil/yr in arby. I think he'll continue to be solid but probably never pitch like he did last year. And Brewer's closers have had a tendency to blow up in the past. I just worry they're gonna give him like $10 mil/yr, which is ridiculous for just about any closer.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

You know, I was just reading the BP 2012 section on the Phillies and their silly expenditure of $50 Million on Papelbon, a near universally reviled player as being a huge risk, and thought about that in terms of Axford, a near universally beloved player (the anti-Turnbow, but maybe that's because Ax has Twitter and a sense of humor and Derrick didn't) and wondered how much that was worth OUTSIDE their pitching.

[PrinceEatMeat]

He won't get closer's money. It will just be a deal to buy out this year, and his 3 arby years. Will be reasonable. Ax probably just wants the financial security.

[logan82]

I just don't understand it from the Brewers perspective. He's already 29 and under control for the next 5 years.

 

edit: I guess if they think he's going to continue to pitch like he did last year and he'll end up costing something like $15 mil/yr in arby. I think he'll continue to be solid but probably never pitch like he did last year. And Brewer's closers have had a tendency to blow up in the past. I just worry they're gonna give him like $10 mil/yr, which is ridiculous for just about any closer.

I think we just wait to see what he will actually be paid before we make any judgements. Sure we have control of him for 4 years(5 years actually), including this year, but if he continues to pitch well he will be very expensive in arby.

[sheetskout]

He won't get closer's money. It will just be a deal to buy out this year, and his 3 arby years. Will be reasonable. Ax probably just wants the financial security.

 

Man, I hope you're right. I am NEVER for signing closers long term. It just doesn't work out most of the time (Brad Lidge, B.J. Ryan, Jonathan Broxton, Huston Street, etc)

 

It's not only that they can blow out their arms, but their seasons can quickly go bad making any long-term deal easily look like it wasn't worth it.

[igor67]

Can anybody provide an example of a closer besides Hoffman or Rivera who would have actually been worth a 5 year deal for big bucks starting after age 29? The guys is blast and all, but even the best closers, seem to regress to mere relievers after a few years.

[crewcrazy]

Can anybody provide an example of a closer besides Hoffman or Rivera who would have actually been worth a 5 year deal for big bucks starting after age 29? The guys is blast and all, but even the best closers, seem to regress to mere relievers after a few years.

 

One example of a big deal guy that still performed well: Billy Wagner made $10,750,000 a year for the Mets from 2006 through 2009 (age 34-37), and had a 2.35 ERA in 198 appearances. Racked up 252 strikeouts in 203.1 IP, 101 saves, 186 ERA+, 11.2 K/9, and a 4.13 K/BB ratio.

 

(Related: I had forgotten how really, really freaking good Billy Wagner was.)

 

Even with numbers like that, Baseball Reference had Wagner at a total of 5.2 WAR those years (FanGraphs had him at 5.0 WAR). Admittedly, WAR isn't a great stat to judge closers by, but it's just really hard for a relief pitcher to actually be worth that kind of money.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a deal with Axford if the Brewers thought they could get cost certainty and save a small bit of money, but he's also the kind of guy -- late blooming reliever who's had control issues in the past -- that ideally you'd go year-to-year with just so you don't get burned.

[brewtank34]

I'd be ok with a 3/14 deal for Ax.

[jerichoholicninja]

No thanks. Given his age, service time, the over value of his position, and the lack of reliability of success for relievers there is no reason to sign him. Trade him in a year or two is what I would like to see.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really see no reason to sign him to a multi-year deal when he hasn't hit arbitration yet. I'd rather just ride that out. Closer's very rarely stay reliable. If he keeps pitching well for a few more years, then we can talk. No need to right now, especially given our payroll situation.

[clancyphile]

I could go for a five-year deal, but the price probably can't go over $17.5 million on the deal.

 

Two reasons:

1. We have a closer for the next five years. One less position to worry about.

2. If other, cheaper options come in the next two or three years, Ax can then be traded - and if other teams overvalue closers, I bet the return on the deal would be pretty good.

[monty57]

I like the idea of signing young, pre-arby guys to buy out a couple FA years, but Axford isn't young, and he plays a position with a high flame-out rate. We already have him through his prime, so I hope that if this happens it is only a three-year deal to gain a little cost saving and price certainty through some arby years.

[jerichoholicninja]

I could go for a five-year deal, but the price probably can't go over $17.5 million on the deal.

 

1. We have a closer for the next five years. One less position to worry about.

.

 

Who was the last Brewers closer to last five years? Plesac maybe?

 

Hoffman, Turnbow, Kolb, DeJean, Leskanic all had success for about the same length of time as Axford has only to implode horribly. If you look around the league I don't think you would find a whole lot of closers that lasted 5 years.

[JohnBriggs12]

Forget the past closers. Axford's the best to ever wear a Brewer uniform and it's not close. The other guys were either near the end (Hoffman, Jones), headcases (Turnbow), or just didn't possess the electric stuff that Axford has.

 

I'd much rather give him $15-20 million over 4 years, than risk $80-90 million on Greinke. Is there a risk he could break down? Sure, but that's not a commitment that would result in the kind of dead money that Greinke breaking down would.

 

My favorite comparison for Axford is Jim Kern in his prime. Nobody for my money in the game overmatched hitters in the late 70's early 80's more than Jim Kern and that includes Gossage. Now Kern eventually broke down around age 34 but back then closers were logging a lot more innings.

[MillerParkSouth]

I would choose Greinke over Ax and it's not even close. Good closers are a heck of a lot easier to find than top of the rotation studs. I love Ax, but I really hope this is more about cost certainty and looks like a 3+1+1 deal at most because I just don't see a lot of upside to betting on him continuing his dominant trend (as much as I'd like him to).

[JohnBriggs12]

I would choose Greinke over Ax and it's not even close. Good closers are a heck of a lot easier to find than top of the rotation studs. I love Ax, but I really hope this is more about cost certainty and looks like a 3+1+1 deal at most because I just don't see a lot of upside to betting on him continuing his dominant trend (as much as I'd like him to).

 

If Greinke were a top of the rotation stud, I'd agree with you. But he only was for one season and that was 3 years ago. He's not even the top of the Brewer rotation and to keep him it costs $70 million more than what you need to buy out Axford's arby years.

 

By the way, Axford isn't a good closer. He's a great closer, and those aren't easy to find.

[chadomac]

I won't mind it much if it doesn't buy out anymore than 1 free agency year. If I were the Brewers I'd just continue to take my chances with him. Closers are the most overpaid players in baseball.

[Ennder]

Given the circumstances I imagine this is just going to buy out his arbitration years so he is cost controlled and it is easier to construct the roster in the future. I'm fine with that idea assuming they don't make some crazy overpay obviously.

[Invader3K]

Given the circumstances I imagine this is just going to buy out his arbitration years so he is cost controlled and it is easier to construct the roster in the future. I'm fine with that idea assuming they don't make some crazy overpay obviously.

 

Yeah, this is how I feel. I don't think they're going to give him a huge amount of dollars per year. It's more about cost certainty for the club, and Axford getting some financial security as well.

 

Greinke isn't really analogous to this discussion though, since Axford is under control for the next several years regardless. If we don't re-sign Greinke, he's gone and we only get draft picks.

[monty57]

Forget the past closers. Axford's the best to ever wear a Brewer uniform and it's not close. The other guys were either near the end (Hoffman, Jones), headcases (Turnbow), or just didn't possess the electric stuff that Axford has.

 

I'd much rather give him $15-20 million over 4 years, than risk $80-90 million on Greinke. Is there a risk he could break down? Sure, but that's not a commitment that would result in the kind of dead money that Greinke breaking down would.

 

My favorite comparison for Axford is Jim Kern in his prime. Nobody for my money in the game overmatched hitters in the late 70's early 80's more than Jim Kern and that includes Gossage. Now Kern eventually broke down around age 34 but back then closers were logging a lot more innings.

 

This isn't the issue, as unless they were planning on trading Axford in order to free up salary for Greinke, they are mutually exclusive events. Axford is under Brewers control and will be with the Brewers no matter what, while Greinke is not. The question at hand is whether the potential savings and cost certaity of signing Axford to a guaranteed contract is worth the risk the Brewers will assume of Axford getting hurt of flaming out during the guaranteed contract.

 

A secondary issue is whether buying out free agency years would be a net positive or net negative, as Axford will be in his mid-30's at that point and would be guaranteed an eight figure salary for the FA years. There is a lot of risk in that venture. Some would argue that paying him $10-15MM at his current age would be an overpay, so it would be hard to argue that the potential benefit of gaining a year of service time when he's four or five years older would be worth the added risk.

[paul253]

We have a closer for the next five years. One less position to worry about.

 

Just like we had a third basemen for the next four years when we extended Bill Hall

 

I'm just messing around but I am really opposed to this deal. I think closer is the most overrated position in baseball. Look at all the successful closers we've pulled out of nowhere in the last decade or so. Wickman, Turnbow, Torres, Axford, Dejean, Dan Kolb, Axford. Two of the worst closers we had were the expensive "established" closers we paid big money for in Gagne and Hoffman, though admittedly both were well past their prime. I just don't see any reason to extend him. Let him pitch and be cheap for the next few years and when he gets to get more expensive in his arby years trade him. He'll still be cheaper than the FA closers. Plus, if the Brewers are out of it this year or next year he'd be a key trade piece because of how inexpensive he is.

[zzzmanwitz]

Wickman, Turnbow, Torres, Axford, Dejean, Dan Kolb, Axford.

 

Yeah, but Axford is so good that we pulled him from no where TWICE!!!

[JohnBriggs12]

Wickman, Turnbow, Torres, Axford, Dejean, Dan Kolb, Axford.

 

Yeah, but Axford is so good that we pulled him from no where TWICE!!!

 

None of those guys ever had close to the year Axford had in 2011 or the year and 4 months since he was named closer for that matter. Throw out Fingers strike shortened MVP year and Axford posted the best year by a Brewer closer ever. He showed no signs of cracking in a season with the heat of a pennant race. His stuff was as good in October as it was in April and none of those guys listed had anywhere near his stuff. He's in the prime of his career. You can crow all you want that starting pitching blah blah blah that won them 96 games last year. Any time you have a closer saving 46 of 48, you have something special.

 

You don't think you can find starting pitching cheap? The A's signed Brandon McCarthy (who I had posted should have been a Brewer target) last year for $1 million and he arguably had a better year than Greinke, with a 3.25 ERA in 170 innings.

[TooLiveBrew]

(Related: I had forgotten how really, really freaking good Billy Wagner was.)

Yeah, the guy was incredible. He seemed to always get overlooked imo... whether it was from playing in Houston, or later playing in NY & not being Mo Rivera.