Ryan Braun exonerated, no suspension… Latest: MLB drops Eliezer Alfonzo suspension; case similar to Braun's (part 1)

[Nottso]

Reading between the lines, and using powers of deduction:

 

1. 100 percent positive that substance never entered my body

2. Treated like a nuclear weapon in Montreal, documented relentlessly

 

He's basically saying that it was tampered with. That someone added it. And there are only two other people (collector and son) who could have known whose sample it was. So I'm guessing we're going to learn a lot more about those two guys...

 

I came away with the same feeling, especially the remarks about the tester's son and whomever else ended up knowing whose sample that was.

[RightFieldCoder]

Reading between the lines, and using powers of deduction:

 

1. 100 percent positive that substance never entered my body

2. Treated like a nuclear weapon in Montreal, documented relentlessly

 

He's basically saying that it was tampered with. That someone added it. And there are only two other people (collector and son) who could have known whose sample it was. So I'm guessing we're going to learn a lot more about those two guys...

He wasn't supposed to tell his son, but he did. A great question is who else did he (or his son) tell? Maybe those two didn't do anything, but someone they told did? It would still make the tester guilty of leaking the confidentiality of the test taker.

[DuWayne Steurer]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-acquited-exonerated-testosterone-test-article-1.1027851

 

Mike Lupica basically insinuates that Selig had his hands on clearing Braun. He doesn't come right out and say it, but all you gotta do is read between a few lines.

[Nottso]

Also, Braun didn't say "the substance didn't enter his body intentionally", he said "100% NEVER ENTERED his body".

[Patrick425]

This is just killing me...please, someone answer this for me.

 

I keep hearing over and over that Braun is the first person to overturn a suspension. But as I've understood it all along, no one would know if a suspension had been overturned because in EVERY OTHER CASE, the confidentiality wasn't breached. We never should have known about any of this, especially now that he's been exonerated...am I wrong on that?

i think it's been reported by 'inside' sources that no one has ever beaten MLB in this situation (until now). Nothing, that i know of, has been officially released by baseball or any player. I think it's just multiple news outlets getting the 'inside' info from baseball.

 

Correct. Although you are right that it would be confidential, members of the media including Tom Haudricourt have reported that according to their sources familiar with the drug testing program, no player has ever won one of these appeals.

 

When this story first broke, I believe it was Jimmy Rollins that tweeted something that hinted that there have been players that have won their appeals in the past.

[trwi7]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-acquited-exonerated-testosterone-test-article-1.1027851

 

Mike Lupica basically insinuates that Selig had his hands on clearing Braun. He doesn't come right out and say it, but all you gotta do is read between a few lines.

 

No shock that he's on a show on ESPN.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-acquited-exonerated-testosterone-test-article-1.1027851

 

Mike Lupica basically insinuates that Selig had his hands on clearing Braun. He doesn't come right out and say it, but all you gotta do is read between a few lines.

 

I love how people can make that argument. I would think that if Bud was looking out for the Brewers as Commish, they would have more than 2 playoff appearances, 1 division title, 1 NLDS appearance and zero WS appearances in the 20 years as Commish. If he is assisting the Brewers win, I am a fan of a sad organization I guess. Get a clue!

[Menotti80]

ilovebeer said:

I have never wanted something so much as for Braun to be cleared, if he is cleared i will quit dipping.

 

clancyphile said:

If Braun is cleared, I will START dipping!

 

 

OK guys, time to pay up!

[Raw Biz]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-acquited-exonerated-testosterone-test-article-1.1027851

 

Mike Lupica basically insinuates that Selig had his hands on clearing Braun. He doesn't come right out and say it, but all you gotta do is read between a few lines.

 

Wow, what a turd. I can't believe people honestly believe that. Selig is the reason we have drug-testing, why would he want the system to fail? It just doesn't make sense.

[dhoffman19]

Right, although I think Rollins said he knew of a situation where MLB just kind of dropped the issue as opposed to a player actualyl winning an appeal from the arbitration panel.

[fondybrewfan]

I sure hope the Das Arby Ruling will be leaked because you know that that document will exactly lay out Braun's argument. Since Braun will get that memo I am sure it will somehow get leaked.

 

I also thought the press conference was well done; very well spoken. I was really hoping for more details that Carrol had aluded to or other details about the collector but I imagine that will come out in time.

[Dogger192003]

Anyone could come out and deny taking a substance. But what struck me more than anything else is the sample testing 3 times higher the level than any other previous test recorded by MLB. That in it of itself seems to be such an abnormal test that it should have been highly scrutinized by the testing program and possibly thrown out as invalid.

 

What else could account for this type of result?

[jjfanec]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-acquited-exonerated-testosterone-test-article-1.1027851

 

Mike Lupica basically insinuates that Selig had his hands on clearing Braun. He doesn't come right out and say it, but all you gotta do is read between a few lines.

 

Wow, what a turd. I can't believe people honestly believe that. Selig is the reason we have drug-testing, why would he want the system to fail? It just doesn't make sense.

 

Also isnt MLB angry about the ruling and looking at trying to take this the courts? So the head of the MLB tries to get Braun off crushing his own steroid program all well his "agency" is trying to pursue legal recourse. That makes sense

[Menotti80]

Carrol was on the Bill Michaels show earlier. I wonder if ther was any more insight...

[ilovebeer]

Menotti80, i finished my last tin last night and not dipped all day.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Menotti80, i finished my last tin last night and not dipped all day.

 

It will be 5 years this April 15th for me. First month is killer. Hang in there!

[ilovebeer]

Thanks, I have been chewing a lot of gum today.

[Patrick425]

I still can't get over MLBs response to all of this. It just seems like it would have made a lot more sense to come out and say Hey, in this particualar case threre were definitley some issues with the problem. We want to work with the player's union to make sure that this never happens again and we want player to feel confident when they hand over that sample to the handler. Think about the doubt in every player's mind from this point on every time a guy shows up to the clubhouse with a cup in his hand.

 

I also think that Braun heavily indicated that their thought process is that this "handler" tampered with the sample somehow. He said something like "through the process we learned details about this person", but he didn't go into those details.

[topper09er]

On false positives:

 

As you can see, knowing a true "false positive" rate is dependant on knowing both how good the test is and the actual rate of cheaters in the population.

 

Well we do know that there have been 13 (50 game) suspensions + Braun, so 14 positive tests for steroids since 2005 (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/legendary/steroids_baseball.shtml). If we assume each player was tested 3 times/season (which is conservative based on Braun saying he has been tested 25 times in 5 years) that would mean there have been 3 tests*750 players*7 seasons = 15,750 tests performed, meaning a positive rate of 14/15750 = 0.0009.

 

None of the other 13 tests seem to be false positives based on: No player had the suspension overturned, no player came out and denied everything like Braun, no player gave a plausible explanation for what went wrong and how the test came out positive and no player tried to pursue further legal action after the case was settled, again like Braun. Even in the case of J.C. Romero who likely unknowing took something other than steroids which caused his suspension, he never challenged that the test result was incorrect, he claimed he did not knowingly cheat. This makes it look like the "false positive" rate for the 50 game steroid suspension is 1/15750 = 0.00006.

 

The odds that this false positive would happen to the star player of a team, say 1 out of every 25 players, is even more remote.

[Brew City Baseball Fan]

I am as big a fan of Ryan Braun that there is. And just as big of a Brewers fan, but I am dissapointed in what came out of the press conference this afternoon.

 

He is basically saying that the sample was tampered with by the admisitrator and I just dont believe that happened.

 

I hate to say it but theat guy from Balco that was interviewed early on and spoke about fast acting steroids might have been right on, considering that the level of testosterone is high but not unthinkable according to those in the know.

[jjfanec]

MLB could have just thrown the handler under the bus, instead they threw Braun. Weird choice if you ask me

[Menotti80]

good to hear man. keep it up!

[ilovebeer]

I bet Braun will sue the the guy.

[xisxisxis]

2. Treated like a nuclear weapon in Montreal, documented relentlessly

One of the key criteria for getting a laboratory accredited is having documentation of the entire process. You have to have a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Clear documentation of every important step/condition. Clear criteria for handling deviations from the SOP and ways of handling such a deviation or throwing out the sample because of the deviation. The process must be handled exactly the same every time or within certain acceptable parameters or it is considered deviating from the standard procedure. If there isn't a clear outline of how that lab handles the deviations then they would never be accredited. Now there are deviations from procedure that can't be anticipated, but usually as part of accreditation you must outline how you handle such unknowns. Why is this important? Because the validity of the test has only been proven under the exact SOP and procedures that are being reviewed for accreditation. As PEbadger nicely explained, False positives and False negatives are only know under the SOP, not under conditions that deviate from the SOP. That is why it is so important to follow the procedures. While we know that there may be a .001% false positive rate under the SOP. Deviating from the SOP, as happened in this case, could raise it to 10% or 50% or something substantial that is completely unknown because the test has never been done on samples treated in the same way. In this case it's "just" Braun's reputation, in the clinical setting it can destroy someones life (I was involved in a case several years ago where a women had a full hysterectomy and had her breasts removed because a reputable laboratory determined she had a BRCA1 mutation known to lead to breast and ovarian cancer. My lab actually found that she did not have the mutation and the woman has subsequently taken legal action against the testing lab). In the diagnostic area the process has the penultimate importance because you ONLY know what the parameters of the test (accuracy, false positives, false negatives) under the exact conditions outlined in the SOP. For Braun the sampling process failed and MLB has a major loophole they need to close. It would be in their best interest to make sure their is a tighter and better SOP in place for acquiring the sample from the individual and getting it to the lab. If the MLBPA wanted I think they could file a lawsuit to invalidate the current testing plan because the SOP for collection has not been linked to the laboratory testing SOP and that any findings are invalid using the current testing process.

 

One thing that occurred to me during Braun's press conference is that they should test at least 1 non-athlete at the same time and as many as 50% non-athletes at the same time so that there are samples of unrelated parties included in the process (say collect 10 players and 5 front office or office personnel). That way if there is a question of tampering in the future only the collector knows who is a player and who is a non-player. Any downstream tampering could likely hit a non-athlete. The way that it is now any tampering will implicate a player and lead to a perception that the person is guilty. Sharon in reception testing positive for Testosterone might cause one to pause at the validity of the tests or that special sauce she puts on her hamburgers.

[Patrick425]

I bet Braun will sue the the guy.

 

Maybe. However, generally when you sue, you sue all that could possibly be involved. The individual, the lab, MLB, ...pretty much anyone that has any association at all with this situation.