5th worst off season according to Wall Street Journal

[ilovebeer]

I don't think it was that bad.

[Patrick425]

This is how they ranked the teams (from the article):

 

The Wall Street Journal examined every transaction this off-season and ranked each team by how well it fared. The numbers are based on FanGraphs projected 2012 wins above replacement (WAR).....rankings don't include contract extentions, promotions within organizations or players returning from injury.

 

The Brewers got a -5.6 and the Cards got a -8.5 (the Cards ranked 30th). Angels, Marlins, and Tigers were 1,2,3 with 13.3, 7.1, 5.5 respectively. Other NL Central teams: Cubs 0.3, Pirates 4.2, Astros 1.7.

 

Again none of this takes into account guys like Wainwright, Gamel, K-Rod for a full year, and I'm assuming it also does not include Aoki (not sure if FanGraphs has a WAR number on him).

[CheezWizHed]

[sarcasm]I always go to the WSJ for my sporting news.

 

By the way, ESPN told me that Google is a buy and hold...[/sarcasm]

[fondybrewfan]

So this ranking really didn't take into consideration the actual value of the contracts or anything? Just on talent alone obviously the Angels, Marlins, and Tigers had the best offseason; however the verdict is still out whether those transactions will pay off in the long run

 

I considered the Brewers offseason basically average; as in we more or less should expect a similar year in 2012 that we had in 2011. Maybe 96 wins is asking a little much again but 90 is certainly realistic.

[reillymcshane]

[sarcasm]I always go to the WSJ for my sporting news.

 

By the way, ESPN told me that Google is a buy and hold...[/sarcasm]

 

Sweet.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't know where things stand if you were to rank things, but I think that it's hard to spin things that it hasn't been a bad off season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Are we forgetting they lost Fielder? No matter how you cut it that is a big loss. They also lost Hawkins and Saito. Most observers that aren't blindly biased against Betancourt, see Gonzalez for Betancourt as a wash. Ramirez was seen by many as a reach for the contract he got. They added no starting pitching depth. The bench changes were cosmetic. Aoki is an unknown and might be no better than Kotsay. I'd say it's a pretty fair assessment.

[jjfanec]

I don't know where things stand if you were to rank things, but I think that it's hard to spin things that it hasn't been a bad off season.

 

It is only bad if Braun gets suspended. If he doesnt then I dont see why it would be.

 

Lose Fielder, Yuni, Casey, Hawkins, Kotsay, and Saito get Ramirez, Gonzalez, Veras, Aoki while bringing up Gamel.

 

Obviously Fielder hurts but we lost a couple guys who had almost negative value to the team like Casey, Yuni and Kotsay

[Warning Track Power]

I don't know where things stand if you were to rank things, but I think that it's hard to spin things that it hasn't been a bad off season.

 

I think the only thing that could make this a truly "bad" offseason for what the Brewers did or did not do as an organizations is a potential Braun suspension.

 

The replacement of 2011 Fielder/ McGehee/Betancourt with 2012 Gamel/Ramirez/Gonzalez has been discussed at great length on this board and I believe it is darn close to a push. Replacing 2011 Hawkins and Saito with 2012 Veras and Loe is definitely a downgrade but not a substantial enough one to warrant any huge concerns. I believe Kintzler will become a rock solid option in the 2012 bullpen and actually replace K-Rod as the 8th inning guy in 2013. The rotation remains in tact. The bench appears to have more depth than in 2011. I just don't see how this was a "bad" offseason.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't know where things stand if you were to rank things, but I think that it's hard to spin things that it hasn't been a bad off season.

 

I think the only thing that could make this a truly "bad" offseason for what the Brewers did or did not do as an organizations is a potential Braun suspension.

 

The replacement of 2011 Fielder/ McGehee/Betancourt with 2012 Gamel/Ramirez/Gonzalez has been discussed at great length on this board and I believe it is darn close to a push. Replacing 2011 Hawkins and Saito with 2012 Veras and Loe is definitely a downgrade but not a substantial enough one to warrant any huge concerns. I believe Kintzler will become a rock solid option in the 2012 bullpen and actually replace K-Rod as the 8th inning guy in 2013. The rotation remains in tact. The bench appears to have more depth than in 2011. I just don't see how this was a "bad" offseason.

 

I disagree. First of all, the Brewers lost probably one of the top 3-4 players that this organization has ever produced... for nothing that will help the team for the next few years, if ever. Second, Braun is probably going to get suspended for 50 games, with his past and future accomplishments forever tainted. Those two things are enough to rank things right at the top in my view.

 

In the final analysis, the team has lost roughly a third of the division winning team (and possibly Braun for 50 games), and replaced them with Ramirez, Gonzalez, Veras, Izturis, and some guys with little to no MLB track record. I know that some would argue that the defection of some of these guys is 'addition by subtraction'....

 

In my view, they lost a big chunk of power from the lineup, their bullpen has been weakened, and the bench is still bad. Moving forward, they have many more question marks than they did last year at this time. The only plus is that the rotation is coming back intact, though I have my doubts whether all of those guys (particularly Marcum and Wolf) will repeat 2012. The defense will probably be better, but it's not like the team has added a bunch of gold glovers.

[TURBO]

It always seems to me, that in trying to brush off the loss of Prince, we sometimes forget how much that man meant to our line-up.

 

It is ok to be in denial, that probably allows some of us to stay depression free, but anyone who can possibly say that losing Prince and replacing him with what we have done this off season is going to be a push, is off base in my opinion.

 

I'd say that around the middle of April, we will all know just how much he meant to this team.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't know where things stand if you were to rank things, but I think that it's hard to spin things that it hasn't been a bad off season.

 

I think the only thing that could make this a truly "bad" offseason for what the Brewers did or did not do as an organizations is a potential Braun suspension.

 

The replacement of 2011 Fielder/ McGehee/Betancourt with 2012 Gamel/Ramirez/Gonzalez has been discussed at great length on this board and I believe it is darn close to a push. Replacing 2011 Hawkins and Saito with 2012 Veras and Loe is definitely a downgrade but not a substantial enough one to warrant any huge concerns. I believe Kintzler will become a rock solid option in the 2012 bullpen and actually replace K-Rod as the 8th inning guy in 2013. The rotation remains in tact. The bench appears to have more depth than in 2011. I just don't see how this was a "bad" offseason.

 

I disagree. First of all, the Brewers lost probably one of the top 3-4 players that this organization has ever produced... for nothing that will help the team for the next few years, if ever. Second, Braun is probably going to get suspended for 50 games, with his past and future accomplishments forever tainted. Those two things are enough to rank things right at the top in my view.

 

In the final analysis, the team has lost roughly a third of the division winning team (and possibly Braun for 50 games), and replaced them with Ramirez, Gonzalez, Veras, Izturis, and some guys with little to no MLB track record. I know that some would argue that the defection of some of these guys is 'addition by subtraction'....

 

In my view, they lost a big chunk of power from the lineup, their bullpen has been weakened, and the bench is still bad. Moving forward, they have many more question marks than they did last year at this time. The only plus is that the rotation is coming back intact, though I have my doubts whether all of those guys (particularly Marcum and Wolf) will repeat 2012. The defense will probably be better, but it's not like the team has added a bunch of gold glovers.

 

Respectfully then we just share a different opinion. Do I think the 2012 Brewers win 96 games? No. Is that more a reflection on improvements from the Reds and Pirates? Yes.

 

To your points:

*Yes, the Brewers lost Fielder which will most certainly hurt. However, it is not like they signed Sean Berry to replace him. Regardless of the fact that he plays 3B and Fielder plays 1B, Ramirez was signed to replace Fielder. Gamel essentially replaces McGehee. I think it is very likely the Brewers can get 90% of what Fielder and McGehee gave the 2011 Brewers (51 HRs, 187 RBI) from Ramirez and Gamel.

 

*The Brewers only lost a big chunk of power from Fielder. However based on his track record, Ramirez alone could match Casey's and Yuni B's combined 26 HR from 2011, leaving Gamel and Gonzalez to combine to hit 38 HRs to match Fielder. I would say this is likely. So what did they lose?

 

*2012 Iztruis is likely better than 2011 Counsell. Yes?

 

*Saito and Hawkins will be missed I agree.

 

*What would make you believe the starters won't match 2011? That is unbased and purely speculative.

 

The possible Braun suspension looms as the biggest killer. However, that is not something the Brewers could have even remotely anticipated. If Braun is not suspended, then this offseason looks to be about a push for me. Not necessarily getting better but certainly not the worst I could have imagined.

[RockCoCougars]

Respectfully then we just share a different opinion. Do I think the 2012 Brewers win 96 games? No. Is that more a reflection on improvements from the Reds and Pirates? Yes.

 

I think on paper, this team is probably about 5-10 wins short of last year based on the talent of the roster alone. I hear your point on the improvements within the division (particularly Cincy), but I also agree with the WSJ that the Cardinals have been weakened even more than the Brewers. In my opinion, the team had a perfect storm of opportunity last season. Not even mentioning the fact that they feasted on a poor division, I can't ever remember a Brewers team that had better luck with injuries (especially with starting pitching) and such an effective bullpen (outside of Loe's mid-year struggles). The odds of either of those things happening again are pretty low. Kick in the fact that the potent 3-4 lineup duo will both likely be gone for the first two months, and in my view we are looking at a team that will likely win somewhere in the mid 80's (and I'm actually giving them some leeway, because they get to play the Astros, Cubs and Pirates so much. A few key injuries, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them under .500.

[monty57]

Yes, the Brewers lost Fielder which will most certainly hurt. However, it is not like they signed Sean Berry to replace him. Regardless of the fact that he plays 3B and Fielder plays 1B, Ramirez was signed to replace Fielder. Gamel essentially replaces McGehee. I think it is very likely the Brewers can get 90% of what Fielder and McGehee gave the 2011 Brewers (51 HRs, 187 RBI) from Ramirez and Gamel.

 

Well put WTP. Concise and easy to understand.

 

I think the Ramirez contract could look bad in a couple of years, but he should help make this year's lineup pretty good, especially if Braun is around all year.

 

To the title of the thread, it's kind of surprising that the Wall Street Journal would utilize a system which disregards cost and only takes into account production. Probably not the best valuation matrix.

[Baldkin]

In my opinion, the team had a perfect storm of opportunity last season. Not even mentioning the fact that they feasted on a poor division, I can't ever remember a Brewers team that had better luck with injuries (especially with starting pitching) and such an effective bullpen (outside of Loe's mid-year struggles).

 

I don't know. Are you forgetting they went into the season with 2 of their 8 defensive starters on the DL? That their most promising young bullpen arm missed almost the entire season? That their best starter missed 6 weeks? That the MVP missed 15 games in the middle of the year? That both of their primary CF's were on the DL for an extended period of time? That our All-Star 2B missed 6 weeks with an ankle injury? That the #2 and #3 bullpen options both spent extended time on the DL in the first half -- and it was so bad that Daniel Herrera was actually considered a viable option in the bullpen? That our Loogy had a hip injury that kept him from pitching almost the entire season?

 

They had a LOT of injuries. The fact that they won 96 games is, well, amazing. Yes, the starting pitching staff was amazingly healthy, but other than that... everyone got hurt.

[gregmag]

To me, what's important in the background of this discussion is just how bad the team's weak points were last year. Betancourt, McGehee, Counsell, Kotsay . . . these guys were a horrible drag on the team. I don't think DM pulled any genius moves, but to improve those spots you don't really have to. Replacing those four with Gonzalez, Ramirez, Izturis, and Aoki, with Green waiting in the wings looks to me like a substantial improvement.

 

Of course losing Fielder is a big deal. But some people seem to approach that loss almost mystically, like Fielder's value is immeasurable or something. It isn't; it's as finite and concrete as any player's value. Fangraphs had Fielder worth 5.5 wins last year. If that seems low to you, remember that the guy is an absolute liability in the field and on the basepaths, which has always cut into his value. So let's say Fielder's presence gets you 6 wins. If you're pessimistic about Gamel / backup options, I'd say 2 wins is a pretty dire projection. (This isn't about WAR. If those numbers seem wrong to you, fine, but you need to back up your critique.) So, if things break badly, that's four wins -- a major loss. But the upgrades at other positions should make up for it. Ramirez over McGehee alone would have gotten us three games, and while I expect Aramis to regress somewhat, even if he's pretty bad he'll make up for half the loss of Fielder -- because McGehee was a disaster.

 

The biggest danger this season, it seems to me, comes from pitching health. JohnBriggs mentioned the failure to add rotation depth, which I think is kind of a silly complaint given that we have five healthy returning starters, and what good pitcher is going to sign up for sixth starter duty . . . but he makes a good underlying point that we can't possibly have the health luck that we had last year. A lot will depend on whether Peralta is ready to step up. Similar thing with the bullpen -- if some of our minor leaguers can contribute, then our depth is fine. It isn't like Hawkins and Saito were world-beaters -- they only pitched 75 innings between them, well enough to improve the team by a win, but they're old and thus likely to regress.

[Ennder]

I think on paper, this team is probably about 5-10 wins short of last year based on the talent of the roster alone

 

On opinion we may be 5-10 wins short, on paper we most certainly are not assuming Braun isn't suspended. There is no reason this roster can't make a playoff push this year. But as someone else mentioned, this wasn't a 96 win team on paper last year either, it was more of a 90 win team that found a few extra wins. This year we are more like an 87-88 win team that has to hope to find a few extra wins again. There isn't an elite team in the division so it is certainly plausible that we could win it.

[MVP2110]

I don't understand how some people can be upset with this bench? I think this is one of the strongest benches we have had in quite awhile. Aoki imo could develop into a solid starter and has talent to be a better than average 4th of. Gomez's d is absolutely amazing as is his ability to be a late inning pinch runner. Izturis can cover the whole infield late in games and should be adequete to give guys a day off. and either Conrad or Green should be a solid power option and the #1 or 2 pinch hitter.

 

As for replacing Fielder I believe the Brewers did as good a job as they could of. Ramirez, Gamel, & Gonzalez should be able to match the equivalent of Fielder, McGehee, & Yuni when you count in defense. We will have a full year of Krod this year. I fully expect 90 wins this year and 87 or 88 if Braun is suspended. Which imo should put us right in the division race

[RockCoCougars]

In my opinion, the team had a perfect storm of opportunity last season. Not even mentioning the fact that they feasted on a poor division, I can't ever remember a Brewers team that had better luck with injuries (especially with starting pitching) and such an effective bullpen (outside of Loe's mid-year struggles).

 

I don't know. Are you forgetting they went into the season with 2 of their 8 defensive starters on the DL? That their most promising young bullpen arm missed almost the entire season? That their best starter missed 6 weeks? That the MVP missed 15 games in the middle of the year? That both of their primary CF's were on the DL for an extended period of time? That our All-Star 2B missed 6 weeks with an ankle injury? That the #2 and #3 bullpen options both spent extended time on the DL in the first half -- and it was so bad that Daniel Herrera was actually considered a viable option in the bullpen? That our Loogy had a hip injury that kept him from pitching almost the entire season?

 

They had a LOT of injuries. The fact that they won 96 games is, well, amazing. Yes, the starting pitching staff was amazingly healthy, but other than that... everyone got hurt.

 

The starting pitching was the focus of my argument (only 7 Estrada starts during Greinke's recovery). I'd bet everything that I own that's not going to happen again. That said, the regulars were pretty durable as well. Lucroy missed about a week, Hart and Braun missed a few. The only notable extended injuries were Weeks and Gomez, and both were back for the playoffs. This link indicates that the Brewers hitters were towards the bottom of the league in days on the DL (I'd assume that the pitching DL are mostly Saito and Parra).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2011-disable-list-spreadsheet-and-team-information/

 

I'd be surprised if they are that lucky again. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Ramirez doesn't hit the DL at least once during the season, and you know that a few other guys will get hurt.

[Ennder]

To be fair the Brewers almost always have good team health reports when BPro does them, they don't sign many high risk players. The medical staff is well respected and they have a mostly veteran pitching staff that is out of the injury nexus at this point. Marcum scares me a little bit because of the way he broke down in the playoffs but overall we have one of the more likely rotations in baseball to stay healthy. There will be injuries for sure but there is no guarantee that it will be worse than last season.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't understand how some people can be upset with this bench? I think this is one of the strongest benches we have had in quite awhile.

 

I don't see it. Gomez isn't really a bench guy, especially if Braun is suspended, but lets assume that you have a bench of Gomez, Aoki, Green, Izturis and Kottaras. Gomez is great off the bench (primarily as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, not so much as a PH), but then you have four guys who combined for less than 200 MLB PA last season. I'm not sure how you can project or expect much from them, outside of Kottaras who is an OK #2 catcher with the stick but a defensive liability- in my view, in the bottom half of MLB backups. Green is a wild card, could be solid, but he may rot on the bench regardless. Aoki is an extreme wild card, he could be anything from Ichiro light to completely overmatched. Izturis, is what he is, a 25th man at this point. If everything pans out could this be one of the strongest benches in the league? Yes. It could also turn out to be one of the worst. Toss in a few injuries and things really get thin.

[Ennder]

I'd like the bench a lot more if Aoki was a LH power hitting OF than basically another Morgan. We could really use some LH pop that can play OF and CI (and no Branyan can't play OF anymore).

[MVP2110]

 

I don't see it. Gomez isn't really a bench guy, especially if Braun is suspended, but lets assume that you have a bench of Gomez, Aoki, Green, Izturis and Kottaras. Gomez is great off the bench (primarily as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, not so much as a PH), but then you have four guys who combined for less than 200 MLB PA last season. I'm not sure how you can project or expect much from them, outside of Kottaras who is an OK #2 catcher with the stick but a defensive liability- in my view, in the bottom half of MLB backups. Green is a wild card, could be solid, but he may rot on the bench regardless. Aoki is an extreme wild card, he could be anything from Ichiro light to completely overmatched. Izturis, is what he is, a 25th man at this point. If everything pans out could this be one of the strongest benches in the league? Yes. It could also turn out to be one of the worst. Toss in a few injuries and things really get thin.

 

Even if Aoki only bats .230/.290 with little power and Green bats .250/.310 and hits for 8-10 hrs I still think thats pretty solid from the bench. when you look around the league who has the potential for better bench than us? not many teams imo. There are a lot of people that wanted to start Green this year and others wanted to trade Morgan when we signed Aoki. I think we have 1-2 starting caliber players (Gomez & Green) another with starter potential(Aoki) and a defensive wiz(Izturis) with an average back up catcher. That sounds pretty nice to me.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm sure that I'll get laughed out of here for this, but I think that the Yankees got a steal in Ibanez. He's pegged as the semi-regular DH though (correct?), so I highly doubt that he would have bypassed that opportunity to come off the bench for the Brewers.

 

I'm starting to covet the Yankees bench (Andruw Jones, Chavez, etc. potentially Branyan and Hall).... except for Dickerson.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm sure that I'll get laughed out of here for this, but I think that the Yankees got a steal in Ibanez. He's pegged as the semi-regular DH though (correct?), so I highly doubt that he would have bypassed that opportunity to come off the bench for the Brewers.

 

I'm starting to covet the Yankees bench (Andruw Jones, Chavez, etc. potentially Branyan and Hall).... except for Dickerson.

 

I covet a lot of things about the Yankees...mostly their TV contract. Sigh....