Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??

[BraunsBoyfriend]

Here's a good article that answers a lot of questions brought up here. IT discusses why NBA teams tank and other sports don't, the value of the top player VS the #2 pick, economics and incentives and other things. If you haven't read "Wages of Wins" it might now make a whole ton of sense.

 

dberri.wordpress.com/2007...n-the-nba/

 

And then read this:

 

dberri.wordpress.com/2007...n-the-nba/

[BillScottCanRake]

Interesting articles. Thanks for the reading, tho I suspect to truly understand there is more reading involved. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BraunsBoyfriend]

I'd recommend picking up the book. It's almost tailor made for the Wisconsin NBA fan. It has a section on Brett Favre and the Chicago Bulls dynasty. It also talks about baseballs financial predicament and kind of comes to some conclusions with evidence that might not seem right intuitively. But it's backed up with solid evidence.

 

It's a fascinating book and one of the better basketball statistical analysis books. You don't need a math degree to keep up. If you have one all the better, but he eventually breaks down a complicated formula into a simple one.

 

If you have an economics degree or something of that sort then this is right up your alley. I don't have an econ or math degree (math minor however, yipee!) but economics is a hobby of mine as are statistics so this and "Money Ball" are a couple books I adore. If you're into "Freakonomics" you'll like this stuff.

 

The premise is, using the possession as the currency of a basketball game, just what is the best way to measure a players contribution to winning, the ultimate goal of the game? Players are assigned "Win Scores" based on a lot of factors. A Win Score is made up of all types of stats, time player and it also most impressively takes the players position into account. The results may be startling at times!

 

Of course, there is a section on defense. He does measure as much defense as he can but it's also very intangible. But even the author admits that this score is only an evaluator up to a point. It has to be used with observation, of course.

 

But what's most impressive is when you look back on any NBA team over the last 20 or so years that he has gone back and add up the Win Scores of every player on a team and the Win Scores add up +/- 2 wins to that of the teams! It's almost fool proof, with some margin of error. Most impressive.

[Big Reed]

in the year the spurs drafted Duncan, they did have a very bad record. they were not the worst team in the league that year. they had either the third or 4th worst record. Additionally, the odds for the first team getting the first pick were not as stacked as they are now. So it was kind of common for the third or 4th or 7th best team to get the first pick. the worst team was also not guaranteed anything.

 

many people have said the Spurs backed into the lottery because David robinson was injured. What was supposed to be a normal 6 week injury turned into a season ending injury as the Spurs told robinson to just rest until the season was over. if robinson had come back to play, when first expected, many experts believe the Spurs could have easily won 38-40 games and would not have been part of the lottery. however, after his injury and Elliot's injury, they just decided to toss in the towell on the season.