Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??

[2hoophead]

Tell me what you make of this little nugget found in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today. I could not find it online so I will type it in as is:

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The NBA may consider examining it's draft lottery system after speculation some teams weren't trying their best to win late in the season, with the hope of improving their chances of getting the top pick.

 

NBA Commissioner David Stern would like the owners to talk about the current weighted lottery, which gives teams with the worst records the best chance of selecting No. 1.

He said he likes the system but wasn't happy with the way some teams played down the stretch.

 

"I haven't spoken to a lot of owners," Stern said. "On the end of the season and what teams do competitively, I think we should look at the lottery system and see whether it can be improved. I believe that."

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It appears to me, seeing the bottomfeeder's Bucks, Celtics, and Grizzlies all fell the maximum of three places last night, he was none too happy with way some teams obviously were trying to help themselves this way. Apparently it was way to obvious...

[sbrylski]

No..

[danzig6767]

The Northwest is hardly a dream scenario for the NBA in placing two young potential stars.They will be playing their home games when many people on the East Coast are going to bed and some in the Midwest are.

[brettac1]

There was no fix.

 

And there were more than three teams trying to lose games.

 

EDIT: 8,000. Woot.

[bullox]

I don't think the gist of the theory is that he was awarding the NW teams as much as penalizing the worst three teams in the league for their obvious tanking. Under the current lottery process, only three teams could slide down. Three teams did.

 

What happened last night was less likely than you getting heads on 10 straight flips of a coin. Try that out.

[paul253]

what if the system went like this. the teams that dont make the playoffs are in the lotterty, as it is now. But then best of those teams gets the best chance at number one and the worst team gets the lowest chance of all the lottery teams. That way a team will have to play well in order to improve their chances, and might just play their way into the playoffs.

[Mr QL]

Well, I'm believing it was fixed. Stern wanted to punish the teams that tanked(eledgedly). Just that simple. It was a 1 in 800 chance that the 3 worst teams all move back 3 spots. Then think about the last 3 and see that the 6th worst team have one it 3 times in a row. Just too much a coincidence for me.

[FVBrewerFan]

Conspiracy theories are lunatic fringe the way it is, and this one is even more ridiculous. Do you know how many other people would have to be "in on it?" In the media age we live in, you really think everyone can keep it a secret? The whistle blower would make millions selling the story. Not to mention he would be commiting a felony.

 

Then look at the process. The balls are under lock and key, they tumble and randomly pop up. Finally, there's just no way he would choose two teams in the PNW if somehow he could magically control the process AND keep it a secret,

[aracko]

Personally - the whole lottery thing doesnt make sense to me. Why can the top 3 teams only fall 3 spaces? Also - assuming the lottery starts at #13 - and goes to 1, the team with the most ping pong balls would be most likely to be drawn first in that 13th hole to me.

[trwi7]

Do you guys who think this is fixed not understand that every lottery team has an official inside to watch the lottery to make sure that it isn't fixed?

[trwi7]

Quote:

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But then best of those teams gets the best chance at number one and the worst team gets the lowest chance of all the lottery teams.

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That's ridiculous. Then when a team actually lacks legitimate NBA talent and ends up with the worst record they get screwed.

[pitchleague]

I don't believe that team officials are in the room with the pingpong ball machine. But I know that they use an independent judging firm or whatever to monitor the draft lottery. If they DID let a team official be in the room, they'd have to sequester them inside that room until the teams were revealed on television.

 

As for televising the actual process (as someone posted in the other thread) that would be quite dull because you'd have to sit through umpteen re-draws as a team's pingpong ball pops up for the umpteenth time after they've already been slotted. Although, now that I think of it, unless they changed it they only take the first 3 pingpong balls and then just slot the other teams by rank the rest of the way. It's been so long since I watched this (or cared) that I don't remember the logistics but that's how they did it last time I watched.

[berniebrewer4life]

No he didn't.

[BuckyTuba]

It's a lottery... meaning there's a chance of different things happening.

[trwi7]

Quote:

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If they DID let a team official be in the room, they'd have to sequester them inside that room until the teams were revealed on television.

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They showed them sequestered in the room yesterday.

 

And as for televising it that would be the worst thing to watch ever.

 

1. Nobody at home would know what was going on because they wouldn't know the combinations that were picked.

 

2. You would find out who got the #1 pick first instead of last.

[bullox]

assuming the lottery starts at #13 - and goes to 1, the team with the most ping pong balls would be most likely to be drawn first in that 13th hole to me.

 

It doesn't. Three balls are selected. Picks 1, 2, and 3. The rest of the lottery is in order of W-L record starting at 4.

 

I don't really believe that it was fixed. It just seems like an awful lot went right for Stern if he wanted to see the tankers punished.

[trwi7]

Quote:

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It just seems like an awful lot went right for Stern if he wanted to see the tankers punished.

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The Sonics and Hawks tanked as well.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

It's not fixed and last night was proof the system works. Everyone was freaking out that Memphis, Boston and Milwaukee were tanking and going to run away with the top pick. But not a single one of those teams had a 50% chance or better of getting the 1 OR 2 pick. the worst team had around a 45% chance of getting a 1 or 2.

 

Is it rare that the top 3 would fall out? Yeah, it's pretty unusual and the first time it has happened. But it's not a mathematical impossibility.

 

It sucks but it happens.

 

Also, the top 3 teams I believe all share at least a number in the hopper. There are 14 balls in it the hopper. If that one single numbers isn't drawn, they all will lose out. So if they all have #1 in their 4 number sequence and #1 doesn't pop out, none of them will make it.

 

Other leagues don't have a lotto because 1 players can't change a teams fortunes like it can in the NBA. In the NBA you have 5 total players playing offense AND defense. A single players contributes a lot to a teams outcome. More than any other major sport with drafts. Therefore, there is much more incentive for teams to come in last place by throwing a season to ensure they get this elite player, like LeBron, Oden/Durant, Duncan, etc.

 

The lotto probably isn't needed every year because there aren't always elite players coming out. The previous 2 years with Bargnanni and Bogut are good examples. Yeah, they were good players and better than most in the draft, but nothing you would tank for. But then yeas like this come around where it makes just too much sense to tank for greatness.

 

So the lottery has to be in effect every year because who decides if the top player(s) are elite enough to lotto over?

 

In the end 3 really bad teams won the top 3 spots in the lotto. The top 2 teams are bad teams....were bad teams. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

The system works. Tanking doesn't guarantee anything. Changing the system would be knee jerk at best considering it could be argued it worked better and for its intended purpose this year better than ever.

 

Good for them, sucks for us.

[bullox]

The Sonics and Hawks tanked as well.

 

They can only 'punish' three teams. Ended up being the worst three teams.

[paul253]

As for televising the actual process (as someone posted in the other thread) that would be quite dull because you'd have to sit through umpteen re-draws as a team's pingpong ball pops up for the umpteenth time after they've already been slotted

 

thats not how it works. they dont put a whole bunch of ping pong balls in with team names on there and keep having to pick again if they pick the same team. it works some way with 4 digit combinations on the balls and each team being given a combination

[dadofandrew]

Yes, Portland is such a huge TV market.

 

A conspiracy is silly enough, but one that makes no sense?

[bullox]

A conspiracy is silly enough, but one that makes no sense?

 

Did you even read the thread?

[dadofandrew]

Yes, and it makes no sense.

 

Seattle will probably be moving soon, so I doubt the NBA really wanted them to do well either.

[pitchleague]

sorry, again, I haven't watched this in years so I didn't know how it works anymore.

 

Can you elaborate at all on these codes and how it works? A link that tells about it perhaps?

[BraunsBoyfriend]

pitchleague, Google is your friend. Learn it, use it, love it.

 

The first result on a query of "nba lottery rules":

 

Under the system, 14 ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a drum. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Prior to the Lottery, 1,000 combinations are assigned to the Lottery teams based on their order of finish during the regular season. Four balls are drawn to the top to determine a four-digit combination. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the number one pick. The four balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated to determine the number two and three picks. (Note: If the one unassigned combination is drawn, the balls are drawn to the top again.)