Cespedes to Oakland

[Oldcity]

According to everyone on Twitter, 4 years/$36 million. Seems pretty out of nowhere, but the A's look like they'll be a force within a couple years. Loads of young talent.

[owbc]

Quite a surprise since most expected him to sign with Miami. But Ozzie Guillen wasn't sold on him and the initial offer was rumored to be for less than $30 million.

 

Despite the question marks, it's undoubtedly a good PR move for the A's.

[pitchleague]

wow, I did NOT see that one coming from anywhere at all. Oakland was probably THE last team I would have guessed would be in on him.

 

It sure seemed like Miami was going to get him.

[TooLiveBrew]

It'll be interesting to see how well Cespedes's game translates not only to MLB, but to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the whole league. If anyone was bear-ish on projecting him, as a hitter, when he was a free agent without a team, I can't imagine the projection would be very pretty with half of his home games at the Coliseum.

 

I agree with the others here so far... very unexpected signing. I understand many baseball fans have turned Billy Beane into a scapegoat for why new baseball stats are dumb, but I always enjoy following the moves he makes. Definitely very different style from a Doug Melvin, for example. Beane seems to have the luxury of good job security, which he's taken advantage of by making moves that seem to be more about long-term sustainability than the short-term.

[Invader3K]

Well, I guess they have to pay someone. Maybe if he plays really well and becomes a draw, it will help the A's pursuit of a new stadium.

[MVP2110]

I honestly am a little dissapointed he didn't go to the cubs. He also got less than I figured he would. If he turns out Oakland could have a solid team in a few years. If not they could also be a fail ofa team

[crewcrazy]

Beane seems to have the luxury of good job security, which he's taken advantage of by making moves that seem to be more about long-term sustainability than the short-term.

 

Helps that he owns a part of the team. IIRC, he just signed an extension through 2019, too.

 

It sounds like Cespedes spurned the Marlins because he didn't want the added pressure of playing in front of such a large Cuban base in Miami, and dealing with all of the Spanish-speaking media there. Nice move for Oakland, though. I've seen it mentioned that Cespedes' AAV is roughly what the new draft spending caps will be...it'll be interesting to see if teams that were willing to spend more in the draft start spending that extra money internationally.

[pitchleague]

I thought I had read that he was REALLY excited to play in Miami in front of Cuban fans. Maybe his thoughts changed on the subject?

[TooLiveBrew]

Helps that he owns a part of the team.

How have I avoided learning this up until now? Crazy.

[brettac1]

Yeah, Wolff gave him a piece of the team at the time of his last extension. It was very small, though.

 

Anyhow, this is awesome news.

[umphrey]

Since he's pretty much coming out of A ball, he's going to have to either adjust really fast or be really awesome for the last 2 years of the contract for it to be worth it.

[RockCoCougars]

I continue to be baffled by what Beane is doing. He seems to be from the Sal Bando school if you ask me. Kind of a constant retool/rebuild hybrid going on out there. Trading some guys before they get expensive, then turning around and overpaying someone. Signing old guys to plug holes, with 'prospects' flowing in and out of the system constantly. I know that Beane has street cred with the Sabermatic crowd, but you cannot use stats to justify this signing. High risk/high reward, I guess, but most of these international bonus babies have busted over the past 15-20 years.

 

I bet that Beane was the happiest guy in the world that the Angels and Rangers made all the moves that they did this summer.

[TooLiveBrew]

Since he's pretty much coming out of A ball, he's going to have to either adjust really fast or be really awesome for the last 2 years of the contract for it to be worth it.

This sells Cuban baseball way too short imo. It's not MLB, but it's definitely not like A-ball.

 

 

I know that Beane has street cred with the Sabermatic crowd

Beane has 'street cred' with the baseball crowd. Stats really don't have anything to do with this signing, so of course no one is trying to use them to justify anything. This is all about scouting, just like the Reds signing Aroldis Chapman.

[RockCoCougars]

Beane has 'street cred' with the baseball crowd.

 

That's far from universal, I'd say. This guy and his supporters are always pleading poverty, and then they go out and make a move like this, for a guy who has never played a pro game on American soil? This on top of giving Coco Crisp the contract that he just did? Meanwhile, he trades his closer for middling guys, because he's getting too expensive.... while he's stuck with Brian Fuentes (who wasn't really that great 5 years ago when he was 'good') for $5 million? According to what I see, at this point, he has roughly a third of his payroll tied up with Cespedes, Crisp and Fuentes.

 

Bottom line, Beane can do no wrong with his fans. He constantly is moving guys. If he makes a good trade like the Mulder trade, he is praised for 'selling at peak value'. If he makes a horrible move like the Holliday trade(s), his hand was forced due to payroll constraints. Meanwhile, he's finished above third once (in the easiest division to win in baseball) since the last of the Big 3 departed. All this while having one of his buddies (yes men) manage the team most of that time.

 

Timing is everything in life. He was handed the keys to a Cadillac, and got lucky drafting two college pitchers right away. Yeah, it was cool that did things like moving Scott Hatteberg to first, but come on. I'm tired of the apologists pleading poverty. Beane gets all the props and street cred, but if there was ever a genius 'Moneyball' GM during this time, it was Terry Ryan. Ryan inherited a mess, with similar or worse fiscal constraints and built that organization into a winner.

 

Bottom line, if Beane hadn't written the book, do you think that he would still have a job with the A's? I say no.

[umphrey]

Since he's pretty much coming out of A ball, he's going to have to either adjust really fast or be really awesome for the last 2 years of the contract for it to be worth it.

This sells Cuban baseball way too short imo. It's not MLB, but it's definitely not like A-ball.

 

He had a triple slash in 2011 of .333/.424/.667 last year. That avg and obp don't even crack the top 30 in those leagues. Slugging .667 was good for 5th best.

 

2 years ago in 2010 he hit .345/.426/.617 and it wasn't good enough to get him into the all star game.

 

He hasn't been hitting MLB pitching or anything close to it. Look at some of the stats in his league, they are insane.

 

Cuban stats

[gregmag]

Beane has 'street cred' with the baseball crowd.

 

That's far from universal, I'd say. This guy and his supporters are always pleading poverty, and then they go out and make a move like this, for a guy who has never played a pro game on American soil? This on top of giving Coco Crisp the contract that he just did? Meanwhile, he trades his closer for middling guys, because he's getting too expensive.... while he's stuck with Brian Fuentes (who wasn't really that great 5 years ago when he was 'good') for $5 million? According to what I see, at this point, he has roughly a third of his payroll tied up with Cespedes, Crisp and Fuentes.

 

Bottom line, Beane can do no wrong with his fans. He constantly is moving guys. If he makes a good trade like the Mulder trade, he is praised for 'selling at peak value'. If he makes a horrible move like the Holliday trade(s), his hand was forced due to payroll constraints. Meanwhile, he's finished above third once (in the easiest division to win in baseball) since the last of the Big 3 departed. All this while having one of his buddies (yes men) manage the team most of that time.

 

Timing is everything in life. He was handed the keys to a Cadillac, and got lucky drafting two college pitchers right away. Yeah, it was cool that did things like moving Scott Hatteberg to first, but come on. I'm tired of the apologists pleading poverty. Beane gets all the props and street cred, but if there was ever a genius 'Moneyball' GM during this time, it was Terry Ryan. Ryan inherited a mess, with similar or worse fiscal constraints and built that organization into a winner.

 

Bottom line, if Beane hadn't written the book, do you think that he would still have a job with the A's? I say no.

 

Rock Co., I keep finding myself writing contrary posts to you the past few days -- please know it's not personal. You just make your points clearly and with good detail, which gives those of us who might respectfully disagree with you a lot to chew on.

 

A few points here: First, Beane didn't write Moneyball. Michael Lewis did. Lewis is no cutout, either; he's a heavy-duty writer. So whatever sins we can properly lay at Beane's feet, we can't say he wrote or engineered his big star turn.

 

Second, I think you're drawing a really broad caricature of sabermetrics types, which fits no one whom I personally know. The thing about sabermetrics types is that, while we can be overzealous, obnoxious, and flat-out wrong, we're generally not stupid. I think Moneyball is mostly right in the credit it gives Beane, but I don't think he has been any kind of super-GM, and I think he has made a whole lot of bad moves. In my experience, statheads have been among the Beane's sharpest critics, because statheads, when they're on their game, follow evidence and logic wherever they may lead.

 

Finally, you seem to be falling into the trap that you accuse Beane's fans of falling into -- taking your position to an absurd extreme. He got the keys to the Cadillac, got lucky, and only deserves credit for doing some cool things? Come on. For whatever mistakes the man has made, he still deserves credit IMHO for bringing advanced stats into the front office, attacking the game's economic structure with an economically based team-building strategy, and winning some. That doesn't warrant a statue or anything, but I think it made for a pretty excellent book.

 

I do think you're right to praise Terry Ryan. The two guys just have different styles and strengths. If I were starting out as a baseball executive, I would want to study both of them, among others.

[RockCoCougars]

Rock Co., I keep finding myself writing contrary posts to you the past few days -- please know it's not personal. You just make your points clearly and with good detail, which gives those of us who might respectfully disagree with you a lot to chew on

 

Thanks for the post. Absolutely not personal. I argue with the folks on here the same way as I do my friends at the bar. I will fully admit that I'm a tad overbearing, 'old school', set in my ways and stubborn (see my lengthy debates about the value of 'taking a walk'). Though I may come off in text as a 'know it all', I try not to. I am by no means a baseball expert, as attested by my record in fantasy baseball (though if Rich Harden and Jake Peavy ever bounce back in the same season, look out...) I try to admit when I was wrong, (Randy Wolf) but don't do so nearly as much as I do when I was right (probably 10 percent of my posts have been dealing with Suppan/Riske). At any rate, I will fully admit that I have a preference for the 'baseball card stats' that I grew up with. I also dig the long ball, probably undervalue defense and overvalue any player who came up through the Brewers system... however I have no faith in prospects until they produce. I blame these things mostly on the fact that I was scarred by the Gorman Thomas trade and the fiasco that followed the next few years.

 

Back to the Beane thing. I will admit I've never read the book, I was aware that it was written by someone else- wasn't sure if it was a ghost writer or not. Even though he didn't write it, I don't think that you can deny that the book has enhanced Beane's reputation. Personally, I just feel that Beane was in the right place at the right time. He inherited a ton of good (though perhaps 'enhanced') guys like Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, Hudson, etc. in a weak division. He did score huge with Zito and Mulder, I'll give him that, but he was very lucky that those guys were so good, so fast. It would have been fairly unprecedented for one guy to make the jump so fast from college, let along two. The stat theories are interesting, but would Beane have had the same success had he taken over the Brewers at the same time he took over the A's? I doubt it. I feel the same way about Theo Epstein. What has he done that Brian Cashman has not (played with an expensive toy)? Bottom line, championships are won on the field, not in Baseball America, Fangraphs, etc. The A's W/L pct. under Beane the past 5 years is roughly the same the Brewers had under the last 5 years of Bando's regime. Beane keeps making interesting moves, but the results aren't there, and almost inevitably we get the same 'payroll limitation' excuse that Bando used.

[TooLiveBrew]

He had a triple slash in 2011 of .333/.424/.667 last year. That avg and obp don't even crack the top 30 in those leagues. Slugging .667 was good for 5th best.

 

2 years ago in 2010 he hit .345/.426/.617 and it wasn't good enough to get him into the all star game.

 

He hasn't been hitting MLB pitching or anything close to it. Look at some of the stats in his league, they are insane.

 

Cuban stats

I'd guess the talent level would be something equivalent to a midpoint between AA & AAA in the US (think guys we'd label as AAAA types). I don't disagree that Cespedes could wind up being well overhyped.

[umphrey]

He had a triple slash in 2011 of .333/.424/.667 last year. That avg and obp don't even crack the top 30 in those leagues. Slugging .667 was good for 5th best.

 

2 years ago in 2010 he hit .345/.426/.617 and it wasn't good enough to get him into the all star game.

 

He hasn't been hitting MLB pitching or anything close to it. Look at some of the stats in his league, they are insane.

 

Cuban stats

I'd guess the talent level would be something equivalent to a midpoint between AA & AAA in the US (think guys we'd label as AAAA types). I don't disagree that Cespedes could wind up being well overhyped.

 

Yeah I wouldn't disagree with that. What I don't get is why Oakland would only sign him for 4 years since he'll enter as more of a prospect than a true veteran, by the end of that contract he'll probably be close to his ceiling. I thought a team would want 6 years of control for Cespedes. They will put a lot of effort into developing him for 2 maybe 3 good years and watch him leave as a UFA, best case scenario.

[Funketown]

Is something wrong with those stats? Check out what Jose Abreu did in 212 AB's:

 

.453/.597/.986, and in case you didn't try adding those, that's BA/OBP/SLG.

 

I'm looking forward to watching Cespedes, but I can't help but think the guy is going to disappoint.

[bullox]

Is something wrong with those stats? Check out what Jose Abreu did in 212 AB's:

 

.453/.597/.986, and in case you didn't try adding those, that's BA/OBP/SLG.

 

 

 

33 jacks to go along with it. Every 6.4 ABs.

 

Bonds hit one every 6.5 ABs in his season of 73.

[CheezWizHed]

I keep finding myself writing contrary posts to you the past few days

 

gregmag, if its not you, then its someone else... someone has to do it.

[Roscoe Chill]

Billy Beane is hilarious. That is all.

[3and2Fastball]

Cespedes is my prediction for AL Rookie of the year. This guy is a beast. His HR swing in yesterday's game was epic.

[LouisEly]

Is something wrong with those stats? Check out what Jose Abreu did in 212 AB's:

 

.453/.597/.986, and in case you didn't try adding those, that's BA/OBP/SLG.

 

I'm looking forward to watching Cespedes, but I can't help but think the guy is going to disappoint.

 

That's nothing compared to Kim Jong-il's slash line of .997/.999/3.992. He once made an out on purpose so he could get to a parade in his honor on time.