Outfield logjam: Trade one?

[JohnBriggs12]

The offset of losing 3/5ths of their rotation is they'd free up roughly $32 million in salary. I think Matt Cain would look nice in a Brewer uniform myself.

 

Just because we don't know today who will make up the 2013 rotation doesn't mean it won't actually be better.

[CheezWizHed]

We also would have options to put Peralta, Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Jungmann and Bradley into the starting rotation by then.

[monty57]

I'm starting to believe that our best option for CF right now may be Logan Schafer. Barring massive injuries, he isn't going to be our starter this year, but add his name to the "logjam." That's more reason for me to think that Morgan will be traded at some point. Now seems a good time to me, as we could play Aoki/Gomez in CF and bring Schafer up when we're sure he's ready. If not now, maybe it'll be at trade deadline or next offseason. I like Morgan (which is why I think he has some trade value), but he shouldn't hold Schafer back much longer.

 

As far as Matt Cain goes, he is deep into extension talks with San Fran. I watched one of their games this spring where they interviewed him, and he made it sound like he's there for the long haul. If not, then I'd absolutely love to have him, but I don't think he'll hit free agency.

 

As far as our minor league pitching options, I think Peralta will get some time at AAA and will then be the first option if a SP goes down with injury (Estrada's Option #1 now, but Peralta should be #1 soon). I'm sure he will be cemented in the starting rotation next year, but I can't see the Brewers starting two, much less three rookies in one season. If Peralta gets a good dose of MLB starting experience this season, which I think is probable as someone will get hurt at some point, and we can extend Greinke, then we should be able to field a rotation of Yo, Greinke, Peralta, Narveson, {Thornburg, Jungmann, Bradley} if one of the final three has a great season this year and "forces" the Brewers' hand. If they don't force the Brewers' hand, it is possible we'd exercise Wolf's option. If Greinke doesn't extend, then we are probably going to have to either have a "fire sale" (unlikely) or hit the FA market for a SP, which hasn't been Melvin's forte.

[paul253]

I think Schafer should be the starter next season. I like him a lot but we just have too many outfielders right now. Morgan and/or Hart should be traded before the start of next season. Carlos Gomez doesn't look like he's ever going to live up to his offensive potential. As soon as he starts getting expensive he should be gone as well. Schafer is the future in center field.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Morgan is traded, I see Schafer taking over that role in the platoon with Gomez, not Aoki. To me Aoki is going to be this year's version of Kotsay, a guy who'll fill in for Hart and Braun when he has his inevitable strained oblique, be used extensively to PH, and DH in AL parks. Schafer is the future in CF and there's no reason he needs to wait behind a 30 year old with no major league experience.

[Mr Southpaw]

Mets need a centerfielder

[JohnBriggs12]

Roenicke's comment that they kept Ishikawa to fill Kotsay's PH role is both interesting and revealing. So if Ishikawa is filling Kotsay's role, what is Aoki doing? One would have to believe they are shopping either Morgan or Aoki.

[TooLiveBrew]

Roenicke's comment that they kept Ishikawa to fill Kotsay's PH role is both interesting and revealing. So if Ishikawa is filling Kotsay's role, what is Aoki doing? One would have to believe they are shopping either Morgan or Aoki.

Well I don't believe they'd be able to trade Aoki until later in the season (I *think* they have to wait for a certain point & then he has to clear waivers, since he's a new FA signing... but I won't pretend to know for sure). So perhaps they're shopping Morgan, but I'd bet against Melvin being that flexible & creative.

 

So it's either Roenicke being dense & planning on using Ishikawa ahead of Aoki on the PH depth chart, or he just meant Ishikawa will primarily be used for PH duty (& not necessarily before Aoki)... and that would further underscore what a terrible decision it was to give a 25-man spot to a one-position defender who's swings from the same side as the starter at the only position he's capable of backing up.

[monty57]

Ha, I knew I'd find it. From 3/26/12 article on the Brewers' site:

 

Pestano is a right-handed pitcher, but Aoki has also shown a knack for hitting left-handers. He homered Sunday off Dodgers ace and reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw in a 10-pitch at-bat.

 

"This guy could end up being our 'right-handed hitter' on the bench, which sounds weird," Roenicke said.

 

This is why Ishikawa made the team. Roenicke intends on Aoki being the team's primary "RH bat off the bench" (even though he's left handed) and Ishikawa being the team's primary "LH bat off the bench." I'd bet Ishikawa will be the backup corner OF vs RH (which is dumb because defense matters, but I'll bet it happens) and Aoki will only play OF when Gamel sits and Hart plays 1B vs LHP.

 

This makes more sense to Roenicke than using Conrad, who destroys LHP, as the RH bat off the bench, and using Aoki, who plays excellent defense, as a corner OF. Aoki's ability to hit LHP and RHP would make him a good option to occasionally rest Hart & Braun, but he'll pretty much rot on the bench while Ishikawa learns OF on the fly in MLB games.

[TooLiveBrew]

Monty, that post makes me want to break things.

[logan82]

Monty, that post makes me want to break things.

Ishikawa has played a total of 42 games in the outfield in his whole professional career going back to 2002.

[TooLiveBrew]

So you're saying he's got experience!

[logan82]

So you're saying he's got experience!

Yes, tons of experience. It isn't like he has never played OF in the majors.

[HiAndTight]

I think Schafer should be the starter next season. I like him a lot but we just have too many outfielders right now. Morgan and/or Hart should be traded before the start of next season. Carlos Gomez doesn't look like he's ever going to live up to his offensive potential. As soon as he starts getting expensive he should be gone as well. Schafer is the future in center field.

 

 

I disagree on Gomez. I picked him as my breakout guy thsi year, and he's looked exceptional all year long thus far.

 

He's taking pitching, staying back on the ball, he's also staying on top of the ball. He needs to go to right a bit more, but he's such a talented physical specimen and he's still plenty young that I think he is more than capable of breaking out still.

[HiAndTight]

Ha, I knew I'd find it. From 3/26/12 article on the Brewers' site:

 

Pestano is a right-handed pitcher, but Aoki has also shown a knack for hitting left-handers. He homered Sunday off Dodgers ace and reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw in a 10-pitch at-bat.

 

"This guy could end up being our 'right-handed hitter' on the bench, which sounds weird," Roenicke said.

 

This is why Ishikawa made the team. Roenicke intends on Aoki being the team's primary "RH bat off the bench" (even though he's left handed) and Ishikawa being the team's primary "LH bat off the bench." I'd bet Ishikawa will be the backup corner OF vs RH (which is dumb because defense matters, but I'll bet it happens) and Aoki will only play OF when Gamel sits and Hart plays 1B vs LHP.

 

This makes more sense to Roenicke than using Conrad, who destroys LHP, as the RH bat off the bench, and using Aoki, who plays excellent defense, as a corner OF. Aoki's ability to hit LHP and RHP would make him a good option to occasionally rest Hart & Braun, but he'll pretty much rot on the bench while Ishikawa learns OF on the fly in MLB games.

 

 

You think that may be a bit of an exaggeration? In 71 career AB's, he's got a .823 OPS vs LH'ers. Not exactly enough to say he destroys them.

[HiAndTight]

Roenicke's comment that they kept Ishikawa to fill Kotsay's PH role is both interesting and revealing. So if Ishikawa is filling Kotsay's role, what is Aoki doing? One would have to believe they are shopping either Morgan or Aoki.

 

 

And you think that one comment among hundreds can't be changed?

 

Anyway, we've seen what Aoki has been doing. He's been a great pinch hitter, and he's been the guy to get a start in the OF.

 

And one does NOT have to beleive anything. Morgan has more value to us, and Aoki is a great value off the bench. At least for this year. Moving forward, he can back up this year, we can perhaps trade Hart next year to clear payroll if we need it(which we won't, not with the massive additional revenue coming in next year for Greinke). But he could give us a legit leadoff hitter.

 

Schafer could take over the role Aoki is playing this year, or they could split time given Aoki's ability to hit left handers.

 

There is no reason to ruin a good thing. We have a very good OF with a lot of versatile defenders who can all hit and get on base(maybe not Gomez..yet, but I think he's coming around...and it's not like he's 30 years old...he's building confidence and maybe that's all he needs, god knows he's got the physical ability). I'd sacrifice the power if wanted a CF/RF combination of Gomez, Schafer and Aoki. Aoki could lead off, and what I've seen so far, there's nothing that suggests to me he couldn't be a fantastic leadoff hitter, Gomez, I've already said I think is going to break out. Even if it's just .285/.330/.440, he'd be a AS caliber CF'er with his defense. And Schafer reminds me of Steve Finley with perhaps a little less power.

 

The bottom line is what are we going to get for any of them at this point? We're flush in the pen, he's not expensive, and if you're not going to get much for him, there is no reason to replace him.

 

And by the way, this may come as a shock, but opening day rosters....are seldom the same even a month later, much less at the ASB. Conrad hits in AAA and he'll get his shot.

 

The myth about him destroying left handers is equal to saying that Gamel can't hit at the big league level. Except Gamel has more AB's in the bigs that were poor than Conrad has/had vs lefties that were productive. Not that I disagree. Just that I believe the facts are being distorted.

 

I also believe Conrad should be starting.

[Oldcity]

Ellsbury out at least six weeks. Just read that they'd like a left-hander. Wonder what they'd trade for Morgan?

[RWeeksFan23]

That's actually a good idea, I wonder if they'd be interested in him.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just watching Morgan this year, and even last year, I think Aoki could easily take his place. With how Gomez is looking too, he could even start most games with Aoki playing against tough RHP. I highly doubt we'd see much drop-off at all without Morgan. Gomez is a superb CF, and he has more speed. Doubt we'd miss Morgan much at all. Aoki puts up much better at-bats too. He fits in fine at the top of the order. Gotta figure Morgan will have a fairly long leash though given how he played last year, but it's pretty obvious that he's been outplayed by Gomez and even Aoki in limited at-bats.

[alwz4gbp]

I thought of the Boston scenario as well but realistically, what could the Brewers get for him? I think he has more value to us than anything we'd get in return.

[jerichoholicninja]

Like I said in the K-Rod thread, Boston is going to get desperate. They've lost their closer and center fielder for big chunks of the season. They can't just ride it out in a division with New York, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They will give up a lot to somebody at some point and get not much in return.

[HiAndTight]

I'm starting to believe that our best option for CF right now may be Logan Schafer. Barring massive injuries, he isn't going to be our starter this year, but add his name to the "logjam." That's more reason for me to think that Morgan will be traded at some point. Now seems a good time to me, as we could play Aoki/Gomez in CF and bring Schafer up when we're sure he's ready. If not now, maybe it'll be at trade deadline or next offseason. I like Morgan (which is why I think he has some trade value), but he shouldn't hold Schafer back much longer.

 

As far as Matt Cain goes, he is deep into extension talks with San Fran. I watched one of their games this spring where they interviewed him, and he made it sound like he's there for the long haul. If not, then I'd absolutely love to have him, but I don't think he'll hit free agency.

 

As far as our minor league pitching options, I think Peralta will get some time at AAA and will then be the first option if a SP goes down with injury (Estrada's Option #1 now, but Peralta should be #1 soon). I'm sure he will be cemented in the starting rotation next year, but I can't see the Brewers starting two, much less three rookies in one season. If Peralta gets a good dose of MLB starting experience this season, which I think is probable as someone will get hurt at some point, and we can extend Greinke, then we should be able to field a rotation of Yo, Greinke, Peralta, Narveson, {Thornburg, Jungmann, Bradley} if one of the final three has a great season this year and "forces" the Brewers' hand. If they don't force the Brewers' hand, it is possible we'd exercise Wolf's option. If Greinke doesn't extend, then we are probably going to have to either have a "fire sale" (unlikely) or hit the FA market for a SP, which hasn't been Melvin's forte.

 

 

I just started a thread about this. I'd much rather have a fire sale than hit the FA market. Who are we going to go after? Hamels? Meh, sure. 5 years 110? I guess. I'd rather have Grienke as I think he'll prove more durable. Cain already signed. James Shields? Great, another elite pitcher. I don't see either coming to Milwaukee though given the other options available.

 

Boston will likely go after one of those two hard. The Phillies may put up a fight to keep Hamels. The Angels, Tigers, Rangers....I just don't see us ending up with one of the top three pitchers on the market, all 3 of whom are legit ace types.

 

I fear we'll re-sign a pitcher like Marcum to an inflated contract, 4/50 and then try and sign a guy like Jorge Dela Rosa for 2 years and 18 million dollars or some other such nonsense.

 

We have the money. There isn't any question about that anymore. Signing Grienke may be one of the most important moves this franchise makes or has made. With him and a couple of our guys in the minors coming up and reaching their ceilings, the Brewers could certainly win a WS.

[brettac1]

Nyjer Morgan would be a good fit in the gaping CF hole in Boston.

 

I definitely don't see Boston going out and over-paying for a guy just for the hell of it. They are a smart organization, and they'll get smarter once they can figure out a way to force Valentine out of there after this season.

[monty57]

We have the money. There isn't any question about that anymore.

 

You've mentioned that a couple of times, and I hope you're right, but saying it's so doesn't make it true. I certainly still have questions as to whether we can pay Braun and Greinke over $40MM/year between the two of them while still trying to field a competitive team around them.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Marlins have lost Bonifacio for up to 6 weeks are are reported to be looking outside the organization. The Brewer OF isn't quite as crowded now with Hart playing some 1B, but it might be an opportunity to pick up something of value for Morgan.