Outfield logjam: Trade one?

[RockCoCougars]

In my opinion, some overrate Morgan's trade value while at the same time underrating his value to the team, if that makes any sense. To be honest, I don't expect anything from Aoki at this point. He might turn out to be good, he may turn out to be crap. Anything he does is gravy to me, as I don't put much stock in stats from Japan. I don't think that anyone is going to know what the Brewers have in Aoki until he gets some games under his belt. I agree that there is a lot of duplicitous talent here, but there is little trade value of the three likely on the MLB roster. If Schafer goes to Nashville and picks up where he left off, he would have the most value on the market of any of them.

[logan82]

Greinke (if not extended) would Garner plenty of interest, as any team would be willing to offer him a 1-year / $12MM deal which would garner them draft picks.

You only get pick compensation if the player spends the whole year on your team.

[paul253]

Greinke and Marcum would receive plenty of interest should they be dangled. Teams don't trade for guys like Greinke and Marcum so they can get draft picks. They trade for them because they think they can win the World Series. Milwaukee would have still traded for CC even if they didn't get comp picks for him. The new rule may affect what you get for him a little bit, but there will be plenty of teams interested in these two. My opinion at least.

[Eye Black]

Okay, I'm bored, so here's a shot at some possible trade partners (note that I don't follow prospects outside of the Brewers, so feel free to blast away):

 

1) Oft-injured Franklin Gutierrez is once again injured in Seattle. Ichiro is in RF and Carp in LF, so that blocks 28-year-old Casper Wells, who has some minor league accolades, but has only been able to gather 308 ABs in the majors.

 

2) The Mets aren't going anywhere, but they have Andres Torres in CF, so they may like to add some excitement to what is sure to be a lackluster season. I don't really know what they'd have to trade in return. They have Scott Hairston as a backup OF, who would fit the bill as a RH bat off the bench (career .740 OPS), but he alone wouldn't be enough for me to trade Morgan.

 

3) With Roger Bernadina as a starter, Washington could use a CF... too bad there is no chance Morgan's going there.

 

4) The Rangers look to be starting Craig Gentry in CF. With huge expectations on the season and Pujols in Los Angeles, they may be interested in an upgrade.

 

I'm sure other options will open up as Spring Training games get rolling.

 

I was as bored as you, because I also came up with a list of teams that could potentially improve their OF situation with Nyjer Morgan. In addition to Seattle, NYM, and Washington here are a few more....

 

White Sox - Alex Rios hit .204 vs. RHP's and .287 vs. LHP last year. Seems like a good platoon candidate with Morgan, but it isn't likely they are willing to platoon a guy they are paying $12 million to this year.

 

Indians - Looks like Grady Sizemore is going to be out with a back injury to start the year. Michael Brantley is going to cover CF until Sizemore's return, but if the Indians anticipate another injury plagued season from Sizemore they may be in the market for a CF'er

 

Royals - Adding Nyjer to their CF mix would take some pressure off of Lorenzo Cain. Not sure however if T-Plush would be a good fit with the youth movement in the clubhouse.

 

Reds - We would NEVER trade Nyjer Morgan to a division rival expected to challenge for the division title, but the Reds would improve significantly with a good LH platoon player in CF. Back to 2011 splits, Drew Stubbs had a BA/OBP/SLG line of .319/.418/.478 versus LHP's and a .226/.298/.338 line against RHP's.

 

 

While looking for compatible trade partners for Nyjer it becomes apparent that Milwaukee is probably the team that maximizes his opportunity for success. He certainly appears to carry much more value specific to the Brewers situation then he would for the majority of MLB teams. It makes it tricky for the Brewers to get a quality return for what they would be losing in Morgan.

[RightFieldCoder]

Also, as I mentioned earlier, I don't want Hart (and certainly not Braun) getting replaced on a regular basis for a "defensive specialist." Hart is a good hitter and Braun is elite. I'm not a big fan of continuously taking your best bats out of the lineup for 1/3 of a game. That strategy could take 100+ PAs from Hart & Braun and give them to Gomez, and put us in situations where Morgan has to face LHP because Gomez is already playing for Hart (that happened a few times at the end of last year when Roenicke employed this strategy).

 

I just had horrible flashbacks of '07 when Yost would take Braun out of the game and we would have to watch Counsell bat late against a lefty with the game on the line.

[Baldkin]

For that to take away 100 ABs, it would have to happen in every game they were winning AND the player would have to come up in the next inning.

 

Usually this is a strategy the manager would use when up in the 9th, and (hopefully) double switching with the pitcher due up in the 10th or something.

I say usually, because I still don't trust RRR to make the right decision on this sort of thing ever. 4 or 5 times last year he didn't double switch with Axford when he brought in a defensive replacement.

[Eye Black]

Wow... Cutter was awful last year. I just looked at his numbers for the first time and they were brutal.

 

Hopefully the bloodlines work out a little better for the kid on the right.....

 

http://dodgersphotog.mlblogs.com/2012/02/25/22512-something-historical-raul-mondesi-and-raul-mondesi-jr-june-201995/

[jmeks23]

Think about when the Brewers got Morgan. Right before ST ended. If a trade is going to happen, it's going to happen towards the end of ST once they see how Aoki/Morgan are performing. So the speculation of a trade happening right now seems foolish, I mean they really haven't even seen the guys hit yet this year so why make a trade when you don't know. Injuries could happen too, and if you already traded a guy then what do you do.

[Team Canada]

...and Hart's out for a month with knee surgery, problem solved.

[Invader3K]

Just goes to show that these problems often work themselves out in MLB.

[monty57]

...and Hart's out for a month with knee surgery, problem solved.

 

He'll probably (hopefully) only miss a week or so of the season, during which time we'll likely have a CF playing RF. That's the reason this was a problem from the beginning... we have three CFs on the team and only two corner OF. Missing Hart for a week is no big deal, but I'd still like to have a better (preferably RH hitting) option as backup corner OF. Last year when Hart missed ST, he rushed back and put up terrible stats for a month or so. My guess is that after seeing Morgan facing off against LHP a couple of times, Hart will once again rush back, and play poorly for a month or so.

 

This doesn't solve the problem, it just showcases why it is a problem. It also showcases how a serious injury could cripple us this year. We've put together a team which is significantly over budget, and we are still pretty shallow when it comes to depth. We have 3 CF, one good SP at AAA and Green to backup 2b/3b. Other than that, we're very open to injuries, and unlike previous years, we probably won't have the resources to pick up a player to fill in when someone goes down.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just goes to show that these problems often work themselves out in MLB.

 

You'd be right, but they still have a surplus of left handed bats, and now they are critically short on right handed bats.

[MVP2110]

...and Hart's out for a month with knee surgery, problem solved.

 

 

This doesn't solve the problem, it just showcases why it is a problem. It also showcases how a serious injury could cripple us this year. We've put together a team which is significantly over budget, and we are still pretty shallow when it comes to depth. We have 3 CF, one good SP at AAA and Green to backup 2b/3b. Other than that, we're very open to injuries, and unlike previous years, we probably won't have the resources to pick up a player to fill in when someone goes down.

 

IMO we have above average depth. we have 2 guys in Gomez and Aoki that I would be fine having to step into a starting role due to injury. You have Green who is the back up at 1st/2nd/ and 3rd. And IMO he could be starting on quite a few teams. SS & C I agree we are thin but thats it in the lineup which is better than most teams. As far as Pitching I consider us to have 8 legit SP's. Peralta, Estrada, & Fiers I would trust to start if an injury occurred

[monty57]

...and Hart's out for a month with knee surgery, problem solved.

 

 

This doesn't solve the problem, it just showcases why it is a problem. It also showcases how a serious injury could cripple us this year. We've put together a team which is significantly over budget, and we are still pretty shallow when it comes to depth. We have 3 CF, one good SP at AAA and Green to backup 2b/3b. Other than that, we're very open to injuries, and unlike previous years, we probably won't have the resources to pick up a player to fill in when someone goes down.

 

IMO we have above average depth. we have 2 guys in Gomez and Aoki that I would be fine having to step into a starting role due to injury. You have Green who is the back up at 1st/2nd/ and 3rd. And IMO he could be starting on quite a few teams. SS & C I agree we are thin but thats it in the lineup which is better than most teams. As far as Pitching I consider us to have 8 legit SP's. Peralta, Estrada, & Fiers I would trust to start if an injury occurred

 

I'm probably higher on Aoki then most, but he does carry a big question mark at the moment. Gomez can't hit, and Morgan can't hit lefties. All three are fine CF's, but are probably well below average offensively if they have to put up significant time at corner OF, especially if they are not allowed to play only in favorable match-ups (i.e. Morgan only facing RHP). At this time last year, this board was about to blow up over the thought of Gomez playing everyday, and that was at CF. Nothing has changed with him, the only thing that has changed is that he was only used against LHP last year, and we got reminded (by being forced to watch Kotsay in CF) that he is a really good defender in CF. If he played everyday in CF and Morgan played everyday in RF, we would suffer.

 

Green has never played 1B, so I don't know why people keep putting him there. Same with Ramirez. Our backup 1B is either Hart (putting Aoki or Morgan in RF) or Ishikawa (?-sp). If Green is allowed to play everyday at AAA, then he'll probably do fine as a replacement for 2B/3B if Weeks or Ramirez go down, but I worry that they'll bury him on the bench until someone's hurt, making it very difficult to put up decent numbers when he is needed everyday. Either way, as much as I like him, Green is far from a "sure thing" prospect. If he was, Ramirez wouldn't be on the team.

 

Peralta will probably enjoy a good career as an MLB starter. Fiers & Estrada not so much. In any case, most rookie SP have a hard time in their first go-round. I'm glad we're getting to a point where we have some young insurance at SP, but if we have a situation where we have a couple of SP go down for an extended period, we're probably not making the playoffs. If the Brewers decide to dip to AA to bring some talent up, then we have more quality depth, but they have been very hesitant to do that in the recent past (the last one I remember was Villanueva).

 

Melvin has built this team by signing good players to big contracts and trading away a lot of our young talent to bring in other good players. That's left us a little thin in the "injury insurance" department, and it has probably left us with no funds to bring in replacements (like trading for a good SP mid-season if someone gets hurt). Peralta is the only "Top 100" prospect we have that is likely to see any time at the MLB level anytime soon, so I'd argue that we aren't covered really well this year.

 

Sorry for bringing this off-topic. To topic, whether Hart is hurt or not, I feel that we'd be better if we could move one of our three CF for a comparably talented corner OF. Gomez is our only righty, I don't think it's "legal" to trade Aoki, so to me that would mean moving Morgan for a RH-hitting corner OF of around equal overall value to Morgan. I don't know if this is feasible, but if it is, I'd like to see it done, and Hart's injury makes me more interested in seeing it happen.

[MVP2110]

What teams truly have starting caliber players though ready to jump in and start on a whim when a player goes down. Not many examples out there. Gomez Aoki & Green are as close as your going to get IMO.

[monty57]

I may be overreacting, but with the potential of losing 3/5 of our starting rotation after the sesaon, this is as close to an "all in" season as we've seen. The massive increase in the payroll makes me think Mark A / Melvin also believe this is an "all in" year.

 

I'd hate to think that an "all in" year, with a $100MM+ payroll, we would have to routinely watch Morgan face lefties or Estrada pitching on a regular basis. On the surface, it's possible that we have more depth than last year, but (A) we got lucky we didn't have many SP injuries last year, (B) we had Fielder, who played everyday and single-handedly made up for holes elsewhere, and © we had money to add some key pieces like K-Rod and Hairston late in the season.

 

I like the team we have, so I hope I'm just overreacting on this. To topic, I also hope Hart doesn't miss much, if any, time, and I hope that Roenicke plays Aoki everyday in RF for any games Hart misses. I do think he has the possibility to be a good everyday player, but I don't think he's going to get the PAs to prove it, as my guess is Roenicke will go with Gomez in CF and Morgan in RF, which is probably where most of my angst is derived.

[adamds22]

I think the Brewers are moving more towards a we are going to be competitive and challenge for the division every year than a "we're all in this year" type of a team. We've increased payroll a ton in even the last 5 years so I don't think the Brewers are going to be a one and done team anytime soon. Sure there will probably be down years and maybe I am just overly optimistic but we are building around the right players and locking them up early. Yes we may lose 3/5 of our pitching staff next year which if we do we probably won't contend in 2013 but that doesn't mean that we won't be right back in contention in 2014 and I personally HIGHLY doubt that the ownership lets 3 starting pitchers walk after this season.

 

As far as Hart, this is the reason we have 3 CF's right now. Yes we won't be as productive but who is as productive when their starter is out with an injury. In my opinion we are way better off than most MLB teams as far as OF depth goes and hopefully Hart will be back shortly after the start of the season. There is no need to trade any of our OFers right now, maybe at the All-Star break if we see what we can get out of some of the unknowns (Gindl, Schaefer, Akoi). Couldn't hurt to give these guys some time to increase their stock at the same time. We have a lot of unknowns in the OF this year behind the 4 starters which we know what to expect from and I'm not sure we would get much benefit out of trading Gomez or Morgan.

[Bnowell4evr]

I don't think theres any way we lose 3/5 of our rotation. If Greinke and Marcum both left then we would pick up the option on Randy Wolf. Not to mention Greinke seems like he plans on sticking around a while.

[TooLiveBrew]

...and Hart's out for a month with knee surgery, problem solved.

Depth is always, always, always a good thing. Sorry to see this injury to Corey, but I'm glad the Brewers have Aoki in the mix as well as Gindl & Schafer.

 

 

Just goes to show that these problems often work themselves out in MLB.

You'd be right, but they still have a surplus of left handed bats, and now they are critically short on right handed bats.

If only RH-hitting corner outfielders were relatively cheap & easy to find

[adambr2]

I don't think theres any way we lose 3/5 of our rotation. If Greinke and Marcum both left then we would pick up the option on Randy Wolf. Not to mention Greinke seems like he plans on sticking around a while.

 

On the surface I would think that Wolf would need to have an awfully good year to justify a $10M dollar option, but when you look a little more at it, you're right. If you don't keep him then you have to pay him a $1.5M buyout anyway. So you really have to call the option $8.5M.

 

If he has similar numbers to 2011 then it would be hard to say he's not worth it for one more year.

 

That being said, I hope that we have learned that going into a season with Gallardo and Wolf as our two best starters isn't going to result in a very successful season.

[monty57]

Okay, I've gotten over the shock of seeing Weeks, Hart and Marcum out with injuries. I've climbed back from the ledge a little as I watched Weeks play well yesterday and heard Marcum will resume "baseball activities" in 2-3 days. We have a good team, and do have some depth at some positions. I like Aoki and I like Taylor Green. I'm glad our young pitchers are finally getting near-MLB ready, and I'm thrilled at the mere rumor that Greinke and the Brewers are "deep into talks" of an extension.

 

That said, Schafer looked really good in CF, and if he hadn't gotten injured, we probably never would've made the Hardy for Gomez trade, and would've just started Schafer in CF two years ago. Seeing him healthy adds even more fuel to my fire that we should try to find a decent corner OF for Morgan. We're over-covered in CF, but weak in the backup corner OF spot. I like Aoki much more as Gomez' platoon partner in CF than I like him as a RF (his arm and lack of power are supposed to be his biggest weaknesses, and they're pretty much requisite for a RF). Seattle's CF has a torn pectoral muscle, and they have surplus corner OFs (Ichiro's not going to sit for a rookie), so give Jack Z a call and see if a deal can be struck. A good RH backup corner OF will do wonders for this team.

[jmeks23]

Kind of a side-note and also kind of related but isn't it interesting that the last 5+ years it seems like our starting lineup is exclusively RHH's and our bench/backups are almost exclusively LHH's. Funny and annoying at the same time. Just seems like we can't produce starting level LHH's, or bench-level RHH's.

 

 

As far as the OF situation, I really think a guy like Schafer deserves a chance. No offense to T-Plush, but I would rather see Schafer take your spot in the platoon, with Aoki playing as well.

[Warning Track Power]

As far as the OF situation, I really think a guy like Schafer deserves a chance. No offense to T-Plush, but I would rather see Schafer take your spot in the platoon, with Aoki playing as well.

 

If we knew what we had in Aoki already I would be more apt to agree with this. My fear is we deal Morgan, Aoki is not an adequate hitter in MLB and Schafer is thrust into the everyday lineup and CF sinks or swims with him as he will get most of the starts in CF. While I think he is ready for this, I am not 100% sold on the idea just yet.

[monty57]

Aoki is not an adequate hitter in MLB and Schafer is thrust into the everyday lineup and CF

 

Roenicke's the manager. The guy who stuck with McGehee until the final week of the season when we had Green in AAA with a .900+ OPS. I don't think we'd have to worry about Schafer getting too much PT. I'd be more worried that if Morgan were to be traded Roenicke would play Gomez every day while hitting him in the 2 hole.

[CheezWizHed]

The guy who stuck with McGehee until the final week of the season when we had Green in AAA with a .900+ OPS.

 

I'm a big Green fan, but that statement isn't entirely fair either. I think RR stuck with McGehee too long, but there is no certainty that Green was going to hit better either. Hitting .997 anywhere is impressive, but its a big step up to the majors. And we were in the midst of a pennant race.

 

He did bench Casey in the playoffs, so he did it when it counted.