Outfield logjam: Trade one?

[paul253]

And hard not to agree that the Braves would be a logical target if Melvin would totally break character & deal a veteran for a young, cost-controlled player [smile]

 

This would be a really smart move in my opinion. Let's say you can get Delgado for Hart. Stick him in Nashville with Peralta and Rogers this season. One of them would probably be the first or second option (behind Estrada) should one of your starters go down. Then after the season is up you can decline the option on Wolf, opening one spot, and you have more insurance should Marcum and/or Greinke leave, and let's face it, the Brewers won't be able to afford both. As much as I like Jungmann and Bradley, they haven't even pitched in the minors yet and I don't think you can count on them for 2013. A 2013 rotation of Greinke, Gallardo, Narveson, Peralta, and Delgado/Vizcaino would look pretty good and help you get your finances back in order a bit. I really wish Melvin would explore this possibility.

[chadomac]

If you trade for Yunel Escobar, what do you do with the other shortstop you have signed already? Hart is definitely undervalued around here, you'd miss his bat if it was gone. He's not the outfielder you trade if you have to trade one.

 

With Braun in the lineup, I agree we have probably one too many left-handed-hitting outfielders, but I think they're worth more to the team than what we'd get in return.

[paul253]

Hart is definitely undervalued around here, you'd miss his bat if it was gone.

 

I'd value Hart more if he could put up the same numbers hitting 5th or 6th. I think he lowers his own value by having to bat first or second. His power would look a lot better lower in the lineup where it would result in more runs driven in. I also think he took a big step back last year in terms of speed, defense, and base running. I just wonder how well he is going to age and if his value might be at its peak right now. Melvin missed out on trading guys like McGehee and Turnbow at their peak. I don't want to see the same thing happen with Hart.

He's not the outfielder you trade if you have to trade one.

 

The problem is if you trade Gomez or Morgan you aren't going to get anything of substance in return. Gomez can't hit and Morgan is a little on the older side whose clubhouse antics have already lead to trades from two other organizations. You wouldn't get much more than a mid-ceiling prospect for either one. At that point you'd just be trading an outfielder for the sake of trading an outfielder. I don't want to trade Hart just because we have other capable outfielders. But if you can get an Arodys Vizcaino, a Randall Delgado or a Mike Minor, I think you do it.

[derflotr]

I'd value Hart more if he could put up the same numbers hitting 5th or 6th. I think he lowers his own value by having to bat first or second.

The guy with the most ABs is basically the most valuable offensive player on a baseball team.

[Eye Black]

Barring an early season injury to one of their starting outfielders the Braves may not be willing to give up either Vizcaino or Delgado for Hart. Their 2012 starting outfield doesn't actually look that bad with Prado, Bourn, and Heyward (assuming he bounces back this year), but they do lack depth with Jose Constanza as their only OF depth under 34 years old. That being said, I really like the Braves as a potential trade partner. Not only are they thin in OF depth at the MLB level, but also appear to lack MLB ready OF prospects. Couple this with Bourn's free agency after 2012, and the possibility Prado may have to fill in this year at 3B if Chipper Jones struggles in his age 40 season, and it sure looks like they would listen if Melvin called.

 

With Tyler Pastornicky slated as their starting SS this season, it would be worth checking in on what it would take to get Andrelton Simmons. My guess is the Braves want to hold onto both shortstops at the moment (one could be moved to 2B/3B), but if the Brewers could find a way to turn their OF depth into Simmons it would go along way toward solving their future hole at SS.

[NievesNoNO]

Maybe they wouldn't, I really don't know, but...

 

- Hechavarria, by all accounts, is a pretty highly touted SS prospect who is MLB ready. Kind of like our Hardy/Escobar situation. With Yunel signed through 2015, obviously someone has to go. Meanwhile, Toronto doesn't have much in the outfield besides Bautista -- Hart makes them a lot better offensively.

 

- Using WAR, at least, Escobar for Hart is a pretty fair deal, salaries notwithstanding. It's possible that in such a deal, we might have to throw in a prospect to get it done, but if there's a gap, it's minimal. If salary is an issue, we could fairly easily meet them in the middle -- take Hart + Escobar's salary for this year ($14M) and we each pay $7M, next year we each pay $7.5M.

 

 

I want to say I read somewhere that the Jays intend on moving Escobar to 2nd when Hechavarria is ready. Hart is definitely the man you'd move to get something. I just don't think now is the time. I'd demand an organization's top pitching prospect in return. Hart has been a top 10-15 OF over the past 2 seasons.

[KCBrewerfan34]

What kind of value does Morgan have out there?

 

If Aoki is for real I would look to deal him. the fanbase would probably have a meltdown LOL

[paul253]

Barring an early season injury to one of their starting outfielders the Braves may not be willing to give up either Vizcaino or Delgado for Hart

 

My thinking is that Atlanta may end up sticking some of these guys in middle relief which really diminishes their value. Atlanta was really high on Corey Hart a few seasons ago. If they still really like him perhaps they would be willing to give up one of their plethora of major league ready starters as opposed to having them waste away in the bullpen. The only bad thing in my argument is that even though some of them don't have anything left to prove in the minors, a few of them still have options and could just be set aside in AAA until they are needed.

[RightFieldCoder]

I'd value Hart more if he could put up the same numbers hitting 5th or 6th. I think he lowers his own value by having to bat first or second.

 

Somebody (official Brewers source like Hardricourt or McCalvy) tweeted something about this this past week. I can't find it now, with all that has happened. It said that Hart didn't dislike hitting in the 5 hole, he just didn't like hitting right behind Fielder.

[jjkoestler]

I'd value Hart more if he could put up the same numbers hitting 5th or 6th. I think he lowers his own value by having to bat first or second.

 

Somebody (official Brewers source like Hardricourt or McCalvy) tweeted something about this this past week. I can't find it now, with all that has happened. It said that Hart didn't dislike hitting in the 5 hole, he just didn't like hitting right behind Fielder.

 

Did Hart say why he didn't like hitting behind Prince? Pressure?

[Baldkin]

First base always smelled a little funny when Prince got done running.

[umphrey]

If you trade for Yunel Escobar, what do you do with the other shortstop you have signed already? Hart is definitely undervalued around here, you'd miss his bat if it was gone. He's not the outfielder you trade if you have to trade one.

 

With Braun in the lineup, I agree we have probably one too many left-handed-hitting outfielders, but I think they're worth more to the team than what we'd get in return.

 

We NEED to find a SS to take some PAs away from Alex Gonzalez and his vesting of $4M at 525 PAs. Trust me, people are not going to want that to happen come June.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd value Hart more if he could put up the same numbers hitting 5th or 6th. I think he lowers his own value by having to bat first or second.

Somebody (official Brewers source like Hardricourt or McCalvy) tweeted something about this this past week. I can't find it now, with all that has happened. It said that Hart didn't dislike hitting in the 5 hole, he just didn't like hitting right behind Fielder.

The funny thing is that, on his career, his OPS while hitting 1st or 2nd isn't really much better than his OPS batting 5th or 6th.

[monty57]

I understand the arguement for trading Hart for a SP for 2013 & beyond, but I think that there is absolutely no chance we are trading Hart right now. It could have devastating effects on our lineup, which will already be adjusting to playing without Fielder. I could see him traded next offseason, or even mid-season if we're out of it, but not now.

 

If an OF gets traded now, I think it should be Morgan, as I view Aoki as a Nyjer Morgan who can hit LHP. If we could trade Morgan for a backup RH corner OF plus a decent prospect I'd take it. We would then have Braun, Gomez/Aoki, Hart, with a backup who could be our primary RH bat off the bench, and could play RF against tough lefties when Hart gets his occasional starts at 1B. We'd save $1.5MM or so from our bloated payroll, which may help us pick up a players of need mid-season (another Hairston or bullpen help), and we'd slightly upgrade our weak farm system.

 

If we could get more than that, I'd be thrilled.

[TooLiveBrew]

If an OF gets traded now, I think it should be Morgan, as I view Aoki as a Nyjer Morgan who can hit LHP.

 

If your read on Aoki is correct, monty, then I would agree moving Morgan could make sense. And the scenario you propose is a good fit for this roster.

[paul253]

I don't think Morgan would bring much in return. Granted he had a pretty decent year last season, but he's a year older and a year closer to being expensive than when we got him. And all we gave up for him was Cutter Dykstra. I'd rather just keep Morgan then get a Cutter Dykstra type prospect who most likely won't pan out.

[brettac1]

Wow... Cutter was awful last year. I just looked at his numbers for the first time and they were brutal.

[monty57]

I don't think Morgan would bring much in return. Granted he had a pretty decent year last season, but he's a year older and a year closer to being expensive than when we got him. And all we gave up for him was Cutter Dykstra. I'd rather just keep Morgan then get a Cutter Dykstra type prospect who most likely won't pan out.

 

A lot can change in a year. What would we have received for McGehee after 2010 vs what we got after 2011? We picked up Axford for nothing, and he's almost untouchable now.

 

A year ago, when people thought of Morgan, they probably thought of him charging a mound or yelling at a fan. Now they probably think of his hit propelling the Brewers to the NLCS, and all of the T-Plush craze amongst the fans. Also, once Roenicke realized Morgan was on the team, he used him well last year, so his numbers look good because they're not weighed down with a bunch of PAs vs LHP. When used correctly, Morgan has always been a valueable player.

 

I wouldn't expect a huge return, but we'd get a lot more than we paid. A lot of teams would like a .350+ OBP good defense CF. We just happen to have an extra one of those, so it might make sense to trade one of them.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

I wouldn't expect a huge return, but we'd get a lot more than we paid. A lot of teams would like a .350+ OBP good defense CF. We just happen to have an extra one of those, so it might make sense to trade one of them.

 

An extra .350+ OBP CF? Who's the other .350 OBP+ CF? It's not Gomez, that's for sure.

 

It may be hard to believe but last year may have been Gomez worst year offensively. Yes, he had his highest OPS of his career, but he also had the lowest AVG and OBP of his career (neither of which have ever been any good anyway).

 

Gomez is great on defense but he is no where near the player you would trade Morgan to get him on the field more. Even if he was to platoon with Morgan or Aoki in CF, his splits are not all that much more favorable against lefties. Morgan may have trade value but unless Aoki can replace his production trading him would be a negative.

[monty57]

 

I wouldn't expect a huge return, but we'd get a lot more than we paid. A lot of teams would like a .350+ OBP good defense CF. We just happen to have an extra one of those, so it might make sense to trade one of them.

 

An extra .350+ OBP CF? Who's the other .350 OBP+ CF? It's not Gomez, that's for sure.

 

It may be hard to believe but last year may have been Gomez worst year offensively. Yes, he had his highest OPS of his career, but he also had the lowest AVG and OBP of his career (neither of which have ever been any good anyway).

 

Gomez is great on defense but he is no where near the player you would trade Morgan to get him on the field more. Even if he was to platoon with Morgan or Aoki in CF, his splits are not all that much more favorable against lefties. Morgan may have trade value but unless Aoki can replace his production trading him would be a negative.

 

No, certainly not Gomez. He's allergic to getting on base.

 

I mentioned above that I think Aoki is very similar to Morgan (good defense but a weak arm, good contact, good OBP, little power), only Aoki seems to be able to hit LHP, which Morgan can't do. With Braun winning his appeal, we now essentially have three CF's and no backup corner OF. If I were Melvin, I'd at least test the market to see what Morgan would bring in, and if a deal can be struck, then I'd place Aoki into the role Morgan played in 2011, while picking up a veteran RH bat.

 

I'm not overly worried if we go into the season with Morgan, Gomez and Aoki on the roster, as they can all help the team. The worries I do have are:

 

- That we don't have a good RH bat on the bench, which could be solved if our 5th OF were a RH corner OF.

- If we have two good defensive OF on the bench, I could see Roenicke replacing Hart late in games (as he did at the end of last season) far too often. Hart's one of our better hitters, and giving those PAs to Morgan/Aoki/Gomez could bite us as the # of PAs adds up.

- If Aoki or Morgan is on the bench, they will be the #1 LH bat, regardless of situation, so if Green is on the roster, he will not see the light of day

- If Hart is indeed going to get starts at 1B, it would be against LHP (Gamel is a lefty). Replacing him with Aoki or even worse Morgan doesn't seem ideal.

- Aoki may get buried. He has the potential to be a really good player, and he may only get a handful of starts all season.

[TooLiveBrew]

If I were Melvin, I'd at least test the market to see what Morgan would bring in, and if a deal can be struck, then I'd place Aoki into the role Morgan played in 2011, while picking up a veteran RH bat.

 

Unfortunately, I think if the bolded part were true, the answer would be, "I'd be paralyzed by fear of trading a 'proven' player like Morgan for an unproven guy in Aoki... a guy who I didn't even bother to scout before signing to a multi-year contract."

 

Believe me, monty, in this instance, I definitely wish you were "Melvin" instead of it actually being Melvin as GM. However, as it stands, I think the Brewers will keep both Aoki & Morgan, and Aoki will wind up buried on the bench unless Morgan starts the season ice-cold & Aoki replaces him & hits a lot right away. In other words, Aoki is pretty expensive injury depth & overall depth. Frustrating thought.

[nate82]

I am not worried about Aoki getting playing time as Braun and Hart have been injured or hurt themselves at one point in a season for the last two years I believe. I believe Aoki is going to get plenty of playing time spelling Hart on occasion and whenever Braun needs a day off. Depending on Aoki's defense he could also be a late game replacement.

 

If you were to trade Morgan I am not sure you would get much of anything in return for him. You would be lucky to get anything better than what was given up for him last year. Gomez probably has the most value trade wise if a team is absolutely in love with his potential over his results but again I am not sure you would get much in return.

 

If the Brewers still have this problem next year and depending on how well Gamel plays in the current upcoming season you could probably see Hart being traded in the off season. If the Brewers are doing poorly this year Hart will probably be all the talk at the trade deadline. I am not sure Greinke or Marcum will garner much interest or at least the amount you would have seen in the past due to the new CBA rules. Hart really is the biggest chip that the Brewers have trade wise.

[monty57]

I am not sure Greinke or Marcum will garner much interest

 

Greinke (if not extended) would Garner plenty of interest, as any team would be willing to offer him a 1-year / $12MM deal which would garner them draft picks. Marcum is more of a question mark, depending on how he pitches up to trade deadline... was the end of last season something to worry about?. That said, point taken that Hart would be a big trade possibility if the Brewers are out of it at the deadline, and should definitely be shopped next offseason.

 

If you were to trade Morgan I am not sure you would get much of anything in return for him. You would be lucky to get anything better than what was given up for him last year.

 

We would almost certainly get more than we gave up, as we got him from a team that was dumping him for nothing because he didn't get along with management. In Milwaukee, he was the centerpiece of a team that seemed to get along very well, and more importantly he played well. Now, I don't expect a tremendous return, but as I mentioned earlier, I think the Brewers would be better off this season if we could just get a RH-hitting backup corner OF and a decent prospect.

 

I am not worried about Aoki getting playing time as Braun and Hart have been injured or hurt themselves at one point in a season for the last two years I believe. I believe Aoki is going to get plenty of playing time spelling Hart on occasion and whenever Braun needs a day off. Depending on Aoki's defense he could also be a late game replacement.

 

I guess it depends on your definition of "plenty of playing time." Aoki is a superstar in Japan. That doesn't mean he'll be a superstar over here, but late inning defensive replacement with 2-3 starts a month isn't "plenty of playing time" for a good player, it's only "plenty of playing time" for a 5th OF. I hope Aoki is better than that. He would also almost certainly be the #1 LH bat off the bench, which means Green will be buried if he is on the bench.

 

Also, as I mentioned earlier, I don't want Hart (and certainly not Braun) getting replaced on a regular basis for a "defensive specialist." Hart is a good hitter and Braun is elite. I'm not a big fan of continuously taking your best bats out of the lineup for 1/3 of a game. That strategy could take 100+ PAs from Hart & Braun and give them to Gomez, and put us in situations where Morgan has to face LHP because Gomez is already playing for Hart (that happened a few times at the end of last year when Roenicke employed this strategy).

[JohnBriggs12]

If you trade for Yunel Escobar, what do you do with the other shortstop you have signed already? Hart is definitely undervalued around here, you'd miss his bat if it was gone. He's not the outfielder you trade if you have to trade one.

 

With Braun in the lineup, I agree we have probably one too many left-handed-hitting outfielders, but I think they're worth more to the team than what we'd get in return.

 

We NEED to find a SS to take some PAs away from Alex Gonzalez and his vesting of $4M at 525 PAs. Trust me, people are not going to want that to happen come June.

 

I completely agree that Gonzalez is going to be awful and people will be wanting a new SS by June. Hart for Escobar seems reasonable. But I might wait and see what Aoki looks like and I think the Jays want to see Hechavarria play another half season at AAA.

 

I'd look for a buyer for Morgan, not to open up a spot for Aoki, but to open up a spot for Logan Schafer. I see Aoki as a complimentary type player that can fill in occasionally and get you good AB's. Sort of like a Skip Schumaker. He's not an everyday major league corner OF.

[monty57]

Okay, I'm bored, so here's a shot at some possible trade partners (note that I don't follow prospects outside of the Brewers, so feel free to blast away):

 

1) Oft-injured Franklin Gutierrez is once again injured in Seattle. Ichiro is in RF and Carp in LF, so that blocks 28-year-old Casper Wells, who has some minor league accolades, but has only been able to gather 308 ABs in the majors.

 

2) The Mets aren't going anywhere, but they have Andres Torres in CF, so they may like to add some excitement to what is sure to be a lackluster season. I don't really know what they'd have to trade in return. They have Scott Hairston as a backup OF, who would fit the bill as a RH bat off the bench (career .740 OPS), but he alone wouldn't be enough for me to trade Morgan.

 

3) With Roger Bernadina as a starter, Washington could use a CF... too bad there is no chance Morgan's going there.

 

4) The Rangers look to be starting Craig Gentry in CF. With huge expectations on the season and Pujols in Los Angeles, they may be interested in an upgrade.

 

I'm sure other options will open up as Spring Training games get rolling.