Outfield logjam: Trade one?

[JohnBriggs12]

"next offseason the equation will have to be whether Gindl + the return from trading Hart is equal or greater than holding Hart."

 

In theory that's the equation with every player every year. But these days you need to include dollars as part of the return too. I think given Melvin's nature, the changes made this year to the core were so significant, he didn't even consider pulling the plug on any deal involving Weeks or Hart. Not only could Gindl cause him to ponder the Hart/Gindl equation, a big year by Gennett could put a Weeks/Gennett equation in play as well.

 

With the potential need for starting pitching in 2013, he should be factoring all this in along with decisions involving any potential extensions for starting pitchers.

[brettac1]

I don't think there's any reason for Weeks to sweat Scooter Gennett being hot on his heels anytime soon, or for the Brewers to have to worry about making room for him. He's probably a utility/gritty small white fan favorite guy at best (a la Theriot), and that probably hinges on whether he can play an acceptable SS.

 

More likely, he gets traded down the line to a larger market team that's having a down year, who bring him up in September. He then has a good game or three, and ESPN starts Scootermania.

[Warning Track Power]

"next offseason the equation will have to be whether Gindl + the return from trading Hart is equal or greater than holding Hart."

 

In theory that's the equation with every player every year. But these days you need to include dollars as part of the return too. I think given Melvin's nature, the changes made this year to the core were so significant, he didn't even consider pulling the plug on any deal involving Weeks or Hart. Not only could Gindl cause him to ponder the Hart/Gindl equation, a big year by Gennett could put a Weeks/Gennett equation in play as well.

With the potential need for starting pitching in 2013, he should be factoring all this in along with decisions involving any potential extensions for starting pitchers.

 

Why are we constantly trying to make the Brewers a small market team when Attanasio obviously doesn't allow this team to be? Trading a 30 HR/year, average fielding while injury prone 2B to make room for Gennett is one of the dumbest moves the Brewers could make in my opinion. Rickie is only going to be 31 next year as well. And while Gennett may be the next David Eckstein (5'9", 164lbs), he likely won't bring the type of middle of the order pop that Rickie can from a traditionally non-power position.

 

This move would infuriate me to no end.

[monty57]

Weeks is signed through 2015, and Gennett spent last season in high-A. Weeks may get traded in the future, but I would guess it wouldn't be at least until after the 2013 season unless something unforeseen happens. In 2014 Weeks is due $11MM, and it is also when we will have to pay Ramirez $16MM, Yo $11.25MM, Braun $10MM and Axford & Lucroy hit arby, so how the rest of the team is made up may be a deciding factor. If we extend Greinke or have to pay veteran FAs to come in to make up our rotation, we may need salary relief. Plus, you never know what offer may be out there... in a couple of years it may be worth it to trade a mid-30's Weeks to whom we owe $22.5MM if we can get the right package in return.

 

The Hart situation is just closer to reality right now, as Hart is a FA after 2013, Gindl and Schafer are in AAA and we have Morgan, Gomez and Aoki in the majors. If we want to get something in return for Hart rather than just letting him walk, we will have to trade him at some time. The question would be whether that time would be mid-season 2012 (if we're out of it), next offseason, or mid-season 2013. I hope we're not out of it at trade deadline this year, so I think Melvin will have to look long & hard at trading Hart next offseason.

[reillymcshane]

Hang on to Hart (and Weeks) as they hit 25+ HR a year for the rest of their contracts. Enjoy it. They are both pretty good players - at times exceptional. They have both committed to the team by signing extensions in the past, and I like the idea of staying committed to them.

 

To replace them with anyone in our system in the next 1-2 years will result in a major drop off. The players we are discussing are not sure fire talents. This is not like having Prince behind Overbay. Or even Escobar behind Hardy. I'm not saying Gindl or Scooter can't become quality starters - but to peg them as guys who'll come close to replacing the talent of a Hart or Weeks is wildly optimistic.

 

At some point someone will have to replace Rickie and Corey - but why push those dates up when the options for filling their shoes aren't good?

[monty57]

At some point someone will have to replace Rickie and Corey - but why push those dates up when the options for filling their shoes aren't good?

 

Because if you hold them through their contracts you get nothing in return, but if you trade them you get something in return. There's no guarantee that we will be willing to pay either player whatever the new CBA says we'd have to pay in order to receive draft pick compensation (I believe the current contract is around $12MM which escalates every year).

 

This is certainly not absolute, but basically you trade them if the marginal difference between the player and his replacement + the return from trade +/- the cost difference > having the player for the remainder of the contract.*

 

Naturally, the return you will receive will decline as the "remainder of the contract" portion approaches zero, so a GM has to put together a lot of variables and make a determination on when (or if) the time is right to cash in on the remaining equity of a good player. It's much more complicated than simply saying "they're good, so hold them until their contracts run out." I like both of the players as well, and would like to keep them. I'd like to still have Fielder and Sabathia too. However, at some point, it makes sense to get some value in return for losing your stars.

 

*None of these (other than cost) are tangible numbers, so it's not a cut and dried decision. That's why teams pay so much for scouts and "stat guys."

[TheCrew07]

The argument for trading established prior to them hitting FA has been well established numerous times over numerous years on this site. Different posters, different approaches to the argument, same canned responses.

 

To claim ignorance or say that you don't get it simply means that have you haven't put any time into understanding the other side of the argument. It's near impossible to have intelligent conversation about roster management when X percentage of posters will dismiss prospects because they aren't established, Y percentage only wants to spend more money, and Z percentage wants to hang onto players until they have absolutely no value for a variety of reasons. There's very little room left in the grey area where organization building has to take place.

 

Fact is the Brewers are the smallest market in the game, the epitome of a small market. Yes small markets can spend in a perfect storm of fan support and revenue streams, but that hasn't been the Brewer's reality in the past and may not be our reality in the future. How long will the Brewers continue to draw over 3 million fans? Do we as a forum understand how significant and rare that has been in Brewer history? The Seligs didn't spend any money and had the organization over 100 million dollars in debt, we have no idea of the debt to income ratio of the team or any of the finances for that matter. People like to claim that Mark A can just continually borrow against the value of the franchise because that value keeps ascending, but is that a truly wise business practice? Isn't that basically what happened in LA regardless of where the money was going?

 

There is a fine line between being and veteran and being old, and it's much better to get rid of players a year or two too soon than to be holding on to an albatross contract for a player who's no longer performing. Every year under Melvin's tenure the Brewers have gotten older and more expensive, much of that has to do with the first wave reaching free agency, but the simple truth is that's not a healthy financial trend for the organization. At some point you must infuse young impact talent back into the MLB team or we end like Cubs of last year with a ton of bad contracts for under performing players way past their prime. The current Brewer financial model may not even be profitable, but if it is then it's clearly dependent on the incredible fan support the organization has enjoyed the last 3 years. That fan support is contingent on a winning team, and even teams that win year after year like Atlanta eventually see their attendance fall back and level off.

 

Certainly championships can be bought, but not at the payroll level the Brewers are working with. To win a championship in Milwaukee you need to maximize the impact you acquire through all 3 processes: the draft, trades, and FA while maximizing cost per win. You want to buy as many wins as possible below market value and I hate the game people are trying to play with K-Rod and Ramirez... trying to average out the dollars over the years or over other positions to justify the contract.

 

It doesn't work that way, in the end you're still paying X number of dollars for Y number of wins from that position. The Ramirez 16 million isn't really 12 million, it's 16 million plus a 4 million buyout... the contract is not movable unless we pickup a significant portion of the money. The contract is structured the way it because the Brewers can only afford so much in 2012 so they backloaded 2014 to get the average that Ramirez was looking for. I hope hope Ramirez is worth the money in 2012, I doubt Ramirez will be worth 12 million in 2013, I highly doubt he'll be worth 16 in 2014. If you want to aggregate production numbers go ahead, but using the Axford/K-Rod combination to justify the K-Rod salary for a setup guy, which is starting pitcher money, only reduces Axford's overall value when you lump in half of K-Rod's bloated salary for their combined production.

 

I realize trading an established piece to actually become a better team can be a nebulous concept, it can be a difficult concept to see the value in. However cost per win is a pretty simple idea, and an idea that everyone should be willing to embrace, the lower the cost per win, the more efficiently we're spending money, which means the organization is healthier. The idea shouldn't be to just spend money because we can, the idea should be to spend money as efficiently as possible. I get that same people have made the same claims about going "all in" every year since 2008, I just don't think that's a reasonable approach to organization building. I realize that maybe people do that with their personal finances, spend everything they make and spend more on credit cards, but it's not a philosophy I personally subscribe to, nor would want any organization I care for to operate in that manner. I would rather the Brewers be paying significant portions of that debt away instead of operating on the fine line between the Red and Black every year. It's a very tenuous position and one that can't last forever.

 

In the same way we simply can't continue to trade away prospects for limited term solutions, it doesn't matter what the prospects become, it only matters what their value was at the time of the trade. Did we maximize the return for the value we have given up? I think the answer there is pretty clearly no... even Sabathia's acquisition directly led to the horrible rotations in 2009 and 2010. We paid for Grienke like he's a Sabathia, even though he's clearly been a step down for every year of his career but 1. Marcum wasn't equal talent for Lawrie, Cordero wasn't equal talent for Lee and Cruz, and so on down the list. People will point to the market trend and say that the Brewers got a deal for Greinke because pitching keeps becoming more expensive to acquire every year, but I think it's more prudent to keep each trade in it's proper context, where the market was at the time of the trade, than work on flawed justification.

 

Weeks just isn't a very healthy player, Hart isn't aging well, these are legitimate reasons to look to sell high on players. I'm not going to sit here and claim that Gennett is the answer at 2nd, I generally need to see to a larger body of work before I'm ready to make definitive statements about that. However to claim that the dominoes fell the way they did because that was the only way they could fall, and we need to keep player X because player Y is unproven, and statements similar in nature are simply fantasy. Trading for Sabathia wasn't the only answer, nor were any of the moves Melvin has made... they were simply the type of moves that he prefers to make. In the same way that spending money doesn't help you build a strong organization or ensure winning, the only certainty when you spend money in MLB is that the contract is guaranteed so the money is gone. Veterans are no more of sure thing than any prospect, there are risks associated with any move. Opinions will simply come down to however we chose on personal level to weigh that risk.

 

I'll say it one more time, I'd entertain offers for anyone but Gallardo or Braun, everyone else is aging, injury prone, expensive, or some combination of the 3. Identify core players early, sign them to team friendly deals buying out FA years (I realize the team assumes all the risk in that kind of deal), and rotate everyone else through maximizing their value as much as possible, even a Fielder type if they won't sign an early extension. Sometimes we'll have to plug a hole through FA, sometimes we should ride out contracts to FA, sometimes we should trade players early and go with the younger replacement. There is no one size fits all approach, I'm not into limiting options, but that's all the Brewers have done is limit their options through the way they've operated. Payroll flexibility isn't the goal, roster flexibility is the goal, having enough viable talent where the decision always doesn't come to cost, it can come down to what player provides the most value to the organization.

[endaround]

"Hart isn't aging well"

 

See this is why people have problems with your posts. Hart is coming off two great seasons, both better than the two before and yet you pretend he is aging poorly to fit your narrative.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or he could have been referring to how Hart is aging poorly, physically (at least athleticism- and speed-wise), not statistically.

[TURBO]

Or he could have been referring to how Hart is aging poorly, physically (at least athleticism- and speed-wise), not statistically.

 

...and in that sense, that statement is correct.

[monty57]

"Hart isn't aging well"

 

See this is why people have problems with your posts. Hart is coming off two great seasons, both better than the two before and yet you pretend he is aging poorly to fit your narrative.

 

There were a lot of valid points in the post. Whether you agree or disagree with the statement you quoted, do you use that one small tidbit of the post to completely disregard everything else in the post?

 

All-in-all, I think it was a good post, and covered a lot of concerns I share. I've enjoyed watching the Brewers rise from being the worst franchise in baseball to becoming a perennial playoff contender, but I have some big worries. Most notably, Melvin has developed a problem with ever being a seller and as a team we seem to be getting awful gun-shy about trusting rookies. This is leading us to seemingly unsustainable payroll levels, and could very well lead us to a point where a few beyond-their-prime players are eating up most of our payroll and we have no talented league minimum players to fill in around them. The allusion to the current Cub roster is something I've feared as well.

 

We have to at least entertain all the options out there. To simply disregard the mere thought of trading Hart or Weeks (or anyone else) seems short-sighted. Sure they're good players, but there are other good players out there, and maybe we could find a team looking for an All Star RF who would give us good, young talent in return. We could get younger, better and cheaper. It's at least an option worth exploring.

[CheezWizHed]

Hang on to Hart (and Weeks) as they hit 25+ HR a year for the rest of their contracts.

 

Well, Weeks hit that once and 20 and over twice, so that is a bit of an overstatement for him, but he has good power for a 2B, which was more the point. Seems like lately people greatly overestimate Weeks power, especially in the lineup threads. He has good power for a 2B. Overall, he is more average power (4th or 5th on the team).

 

Honestly, the answer depends a lot what people are willing to trade in return for your players... I don't think to trade Hart or Weeks solely because of Gindl or Gennett. But depending on what you get in return with those players you might.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers simply cannot afford to trade Hart or Weeks at this point. There are already enough questions/possible holes in this lineup. Based on their pitching staff, the window is still open, but this season is going to determine the course of the next several if you ask me. Let's say Braun is suspended, a couple guys get hurt and this team starts to implode. If you can't lock in Greinke, you have to think about a rebuild moving forward. Then maybe you think about moving guys like that.

 

In a state where we watched the Packers do a 'retool' as opposed to a rebuild under Thompson (though I would argue that was a bit fortuitous), it makes sense to want the Brewers to do the same. I just don't think that the MLB/NFL are the same animal. In the NFL, you can stockpile draft picks, draft well and some of those guys make an impact immediately. In baseball, you are talking 3-4 years generally- best case. Admittedly, I'm not an expert on the farm system, but from what I've seen, there is not a lot of major league ready talent. Things seem pretty heavy toward the lower levels, which would indicate a new window in perhaps 4-5 years (if everything goes right). Like I said, above, 2012 is going to be a pivotal year for this franchise in my opinion.

[monty57]

RockCo, I agree that there is no way we're trading Hart or Weeks now. Whether one agrees with how the team has been built or not, we have a roster that should contend for the division, so we're not getting rid of any major pieces.

 

However, if we tank this season, Hart could be moved mid-season, and I think Melvin should really explore the option of trading Hart next offseason when he only has one more year on his contract and we'll probably need pitching. Barring something unforeseen, I think Weeks should be a Brewer until at least after the 2013 season.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Since Ryan Braun will be with the Brewers for opening day, what are the Brewers going to do with all of these OF's? Wasn't the reason why the Brewers went after Aoki was to take over for Braun should he be suspended?

[MNBrew]

If Aoki proves to be the real deal, then we have the blessing of nice depth and perhaps also some assets that could be traded to fill another need.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If Aoki proves to be the real deal, then we have the blessing of nice depth and perhaps also some assets that could be traded to fill another need.

 

Barring a major injury what is the need(s) of this team? I guess 1b if Gamel flops.

 

 

 

GO BREW

[Invader3K]

I could see one of Gomez/Morgan/Aoki being traded if the right move comes along. They won't just trade one to trade one, though.

[RockCoCougars]

The issue is that none of those guys have much trade value at this point. If you are planning to compete this year, you don't flip veterans for minor leaguers.

[adambr2]

Yeah, I do doubt that we will make a deal even with the nice depth.

 

Aoki is an unknown commodity, so it's unlikely that we'd get a good offer for him.

 

Nyjer probably has the most trade value of the "expendables", but the fact that it was only 1 year and there are some perceived character issues really make it unlikely. In other words, he's worth more to us than he probably is to anyone else.

 

Gomez is the only righthanded one of the bunch, so even if someone wants to pay a little more for his upside, it's doubtful he goes anywhere.

 

Now Hart could possibly bring something back, but that would be a bold move at best. You're not going to trade him for prospects. But what about a top 5-10 SS?

 

How about Corey Hart to Toronto, straight up for Yunel Escobar?

 

#1 - Toronto is a trade partner we're familiar with.

#2 - Yunel is reasonably signed for $5M a year through 2015, so it solves our SS problem not just now but for the long haul.

#3 - Jays get to finally move their possible SS of the future, Adeiny Hechavarria, into the everyday lineup, and get another big bat in the outfield with Bautista.

#4 - We solve our logjam in the outfield, get Schafer on the roster this year too, get another lefty bat in the lineup, get a very solid SS, and get plenty of reps for all of Morgan/Gomez/Aoki. We also get $4M of salary relief this year that Mark A. could either pocket or use on another reliever, etc, and $5M of salary relief for next year.

 

I know it's a risk, but would anyone not do this trade, and if so, why? And do you think it's a trade that Toronto would make?

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think the Brewers could even trade Aoki right away, since he's a newly-signed FA. I admit, though, that I don't know for sure... and I definitely don't have time to go dig for that answer right now. But iirc, they'd have to wait until the deadline that's set for newly-signed FAs... and again I don't recall what that is.

 

 

#2 - Yunel is reasonably signed for $5M a year through 2015, so it solves our SS problem not just now but for the long haul.

 

Why would this make sense for Toronto, though? Hart is only signed through 2013, and plays a position at which it's far easier to find offense.

 

And since I think that proposal slants so heavily in favor of the Brewers, yes, I'd do it But I just don't see why Toronto would.

[adambr2]

Maybe they wouldn't, I really don't know, but...

 

- Hechavarria, by all accounts, is a pretty highly touted SS prospect who is MLB ready. Kind of like our Hardy/Escobar situation. With Yunel signed through 2015, obviously someone has to go. Meanwhile, Toronto doesn't have much in the outfield besides Bautista -- Hart makes them a lot better offensively.

 

- Using WAR, at least, Escobar for Hart is a pretty fair deal, salaries notwithstanding. It's possible that in such a deal, we might have to throw in a prospect to get it done, but if there's a gap, it's minimal. If salary is an issue, we could fairly easily meet them in the middle -- take Hart + Escobar's salary for this year ($14M) and we each pay $7M, next year we each pay $7.5M.

[TooLiveBrew]

With Yunel signed through 2015, obviously someone has to go. Meanwhile, Toronto doesn't have much in the outfield besides Bautista -- Hart makes them a lot better offensively.

 

Understood, however the Blue Jays would have a lot of teams interested in Escobar given his service time & production. They could probably do better, in terms of long-term value, than Hart.

 

 

Using WAR, at least, Escobar for Hart is a pretty fair deal, salaries notwithstanding. It's possible that in such a deal, we might have to throw in a prospect to get it done, but if there's a gap, it's minimal.

 

I think you're downplaying the difference in salary/service time/team salary control too much. That, imo, is the whole discussion And fwiw, yes I do think Hart+[?] could work for Escobar. But I think you'd be looking at something like Thornburg as the "+ [?]" piece

[paul253]

Is Atlanta still looking for outfield help? If so they'd be an ideal trade partner. I count 8 starting pitchers they currently have that could be considered major league ready (Jurrjens, Hanson, Delgado, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Vizcaino and Hudson). I doubt they get Teheran Hanson or Beachy. Jurrjens and Hudson I don't want. But perhaps Hart for Vizcaino, Minor or Delgado?

 

I think I'd be ok with an Aoki/Gomez option for RF. You could always sign a veteran to be that 6th outfielder and have Schafer and Gindl right there in Nashville. You could stash Vizcaino or Delgado in the minors for a year or Minor (or Narveson) in the bullpen. If Atlanta doesn't want the salary maybe we could pay some of the salary and get them to throw in a low level prospect.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can see the t-shirts now... 'Aoki is a-ok'

 

And hard not to agree that the Braves would be a logical target if Melvin would totally break character & deal a veteran for a young, cost-controlled player