Outfield logjam: Trade one?

[adambr2]

Curious as to how we will approach things especially if Braun isn't suspended.

Now I really have no idea what we will get from Aoki, that's one tough projection to make right now, but IF he does live up to the high end of possible expectations, what then? Admittedly, if Braun isn't suspended, Aoki probably doesn't get much playing time anyway. We'll have Gomez/Morgan in CF and Aoki probably just spot starting occasionally in CF and maybe once every week or two for Hart. Come to think of it, they could still work Aoki in pretty regularly by putting Hart at first once or twice a week for Gamel.

Of course, if Braun is suspended, you still have to figure things out after 50 games. Aoki will surely get plenty of PT under this scenario, and if the OF situation still works well, you've probably got some trade bait on your hands. Morgan was most productive last year, but if Gomez has a hot first couple months, you could really see his trade value go up because of his defensive ability and upside. Or could Aoki even be trade bait under this scenario?

[paul253]

I've always believed we should look into trading Corey Hart. I think we could get a very good pitching prospect back for him, and it would save a bunch of money. Of course if Braun is suspended 50 games you are kind of stuck.

[monty57]

I expect that if Braun is suspended we will see Aoki in LF, Gomez/Morgan in CF and Hart in RF with one of Gindl or Schafer as the 5th OF, who will probably see 10-20 PAs over the 50 games. When Braun returns (or if he is not suspended), Gindl/Schafer will go back to AAA, and Aoki and Morgan will fight it out for playing time as the LH CF platoon mate to Gomez, with Hart getting a start a week or so against LHP at 1B, when we will play an OF of Braun in LF, Gomez in CF and either Morgan or Aoki in RF.

 

It would make more sense to me, whether Braun is suspended or not, to pick up a RH corner OF bat and then trade Morgan when Braun comes back (if he's suspended) or right now if Braun is not suspended. Then we would have a potential platoon partner for Aoki while Braun's out, and someone RH to play RF when Hart plays 1B against LHP. Melvin has been pretty good at picking up over the hill veteran OFs for around $800k, so I'm kind of surprised we haven't seen one on an NRI.

 

If the latter case played out, I would think we could get something of value for Morgan, who is coming off a pretty good season. I'd look for either a good relief pitcher, which we need at the MLB level, or some good prospects to build up the farm. It could be argued that either of these would be more valueable than having both Morgan and Aoki on the MLB roster, as they're probably redundant.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree that Morgan and Aoki are reduntant especially considering how close Schafer is to the big leagues (and I think he's closer than we realize). An end of spring training deal would not shock me in the least. By then, they'll have a better look at Aoki, know more on Schafer, and probably have a need that's not apparent now crop up that requires immediate action.

[Warning Track Power]

I agree that Schafer is close as well but (assuming a Braun suspension) a LF/CF combo of Aoki in LF, Schafer/Gomez in CF could doom the season. That means the Brewers against RH would be starting 3 rookies (Aoki, Schafer and Gamel). Not the most ideal situation in my opinion.

[jjkoestler]

Nyjer has a bobblehead this year. There is no way the Brewers will trade him. Not sure if that should be in blue.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree that Schafer is close as well but (assuming a Braun suspension) a LF/CF combo of Aoki in LF, Schafer/Gomez in CF could doom the season. That means the Brewers against RH would be starting 3 rookies (Aoki, Schafer and Gamel). Not the most ideal situation in my opinion.

Aoki is 30. Gamel will be 27 in July. Schafer turns 26 in September. It's not like these guys are kids.

[Warning Track Power]

I agree that Schafer is close as well but (assuming a Braun suspension) a LF/CF combo of Aoki in LF, Schafer/Gomez in CF could doom the season. That means the Brewers against RH would be starting 3 rookies (Aoki, Schafer and Gamel). Not the most ideal situation in my opinion.

Aoki is 30. Gamel will be 27 in July. Schafer turns 26 in September. It's not like these guys are kids.

You know what I meant.

 

In MLB:

-Aoki: 0 PA

-Schafer: 5 PA

-Gamel: 370 PA

 

They aren't kids but to expect them to produce like anything other than rookies, when only Gamel could truly be referred to as a one time top prospect, is unrealistic.

 

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'd be completely against trading one of our OF's. I like the 5 we have, especially with a Braun suspension looming. Gindl and Schafer should be playing everyday in AAA for another season, not sitting on the bench at the major league level. After this season we can start talking about trading someone to open up a spot, but for now we should keep the guys we have. They have the best chance of helping us compete. Trading Hart would be stupid. He's one of the most underrated bats in the league, and will be a huge asset now that Fielder's gone. Trading Morgan would be dumb too in my opinion for this year, because throwing Schafer or Aoki into the fire isn't something a team trying to compete should do. That also puts more pressure on Gomez as well, which I don't want. The playing time he has now is fine.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree that Schafer is close as well but (assuming a Braun suspension) a LF/CF combo of Aoki in LF, Schafer/Gomez in CF could doom the season. That means the Brewers against RH would be starting 3 rookies (Aoki, Schafer and Gamel). Not the most ideal situation in my opinion.

Aoki is 30. Gamel will be 27 in July. Schafer turns 26 in September. It's not like these guys are kids.

You know what I meant.

 

In MLB:

-Aoki: 0 PA

-Schafer: 5 PA

-Gamel: 370 PA

 

They aren't kids but to expect them to produce like anything other than rookies, when only Gamel could truly be referred to as a one time top prospect, is unrealistic.

A lot of rookies perform better than veterans. Is 6 of one, half a dozen of another whether you play rookies or washed up veterans hanging on. My point is because they are older and in Aoki's case has played before major league size crowds in Japan, they shouldn't be in awe of being in the big leagues and they should be able to perform to their talent level.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki is 30. Gamel will be 27 in July. Schafer turns 26 in September. It's not like these guys are kids.

You know what I meant.

 

In MLB:

-Aoki: 0 PA

-Schafer: 5 PA

-Gamel: 370 PA

 

They aren't kids but to expect them to produce like anything other than rookies, when only Gamel could truly be referred to as a one time top prospect, is unrealistic.

A lot of rookies perform better than veterans. It is 6 of one, half a dozen of another whether you play rookies or washed up veterans hanging on. My point is because they are older and in Aoki's case has played before major league size crowds in Japan, they shouldn't be in awe of being in the big leagues and they should be able to perform to their talent level.

[Warning Track Power]

Aoki is 30. Gamel will be 27 in July. Schafer turns 26 in September. It's not like these guys are kids.

You know what I meant.

 

In MLB:

-Aoki: 0 PA

-Schafer: 5 PA

-Gamel: 370 PA

 

They aren't kids but to expect them to produce like anything other than rookies, when only Gamel could truly be referred to as a one time top prospect, is unrealistic.

A lot of rookies perform better than veterans. Is 6 of one, half a dozen of another whether you play rookies or washed up veterans hanging on. My point is because they are older and in Aoki's case has played before major league size crowds in Japan, they shouldn't be in awe of being in the big leagues and they should be able to perform to their talent level.

If this were the case for all prospects then the term "bust" would never have been coined. If all our prospects performed to their talent level then 3B Antone Williamson, RF Todd Dunn and CF Chad Green would all just be putting the finishing touches on their amazing Milwaukee Brewer careers and lining up for induction in the HOF. But that's ok, we still would have the dynamic1-2 punch of J.M. Gold and Mike Jones leading us to the playoffs annually.

 

I'm not saying Gamel, Aoki and Schafer won't all be good. I am only saying expecting them to be anything other than rookies this season is not realistic.

[RockCoCougars]

If this were the case for all prospects then the term "bust" would never have been coined. If all our prospects performed to their talent level then 3B Antone Williamson, RF Todd Dunn and CF Chad Green would all just be putting the finishing touches on their amazing Milwaukee Brewer careers and lining up for induction in the HOF. But that's ok, we still would have the dynamic1-2 punch of J.M. Gold and Mike Jones leading us to the playoffs annually.

 

I'm not saying Gamel, Aoki and Schafer won't all be good. I am only saying expecting them to be anything other than rookies this season is not realistic.

 

I agree. I think people are making risky assumptions regarding the 2012 potential of Gindl, Aoki and Schafer. All have relatively impressive numbers at the minor league level (yes, I consider Japan to be minor league), but all are far from a sure thing. I think that a lot of people have been spoiled by the recent immediate success of Fielder, Gallardo and Braun as along with the success of the batch of prospects including Weeks, Hardy and Hart (all struggled early). I've been a Brewers fan for a long time, and I can assure you that the development of this group of players is an exception as opposed to the rule, at least as far as the Crew is concerned. I've seen many better prospects than these guys fall flat on their faces.

 

I'm all for giving Gamel his shot to start along with giving Green a spot on the major league roster (neither have anything left to prove in the minors). However, while I'm willing to give Gindl, Schafer and Aoki a long look in the spring, at this point, my expectations of them are minimal.

[monty57]

Note that I said Gindl or Schafer would probably be up as the 5th OF if Braun's suspended, and would only get 10-20 PAs before being shipped back to AAA. I also said that the better option would be for the Brewers to pick up a RH vet corner OF to platoon with Aoki in LF while/if Braun's out. I'd keep the vet RH corner OF on when Braun's back and trade Morgan at that point if Aoki has looked capable in the 50 games he gets everyday play.

 

The key in all of this would be to find a veteran RH corner OF, and I really don't know who that would be at this point, which is why my "probable" scenario was:

 

I expect that if Braun is suspended we will see Aoki in LF, Gomez/Morgan in CF and Hart in RF with one of Gindl or Schafer as the 5th OF, who will probably see 10-20 PAs over the 50 games. When Braun returns (or if he is not suspended), Gindl/Schafer will go back to AAA, and Aoki and Morgan will fight it out for playing time as the LH CF platoon mate to Gomez, with Hart getting a start a week or so against LHP at 1B, when we will play an OF of Braun in LF, Gomez in CF and either Morgan or Aoki in RF.

 

If there is a better option for 5th OF if Braun is out, I will agree that Gindl & Schafer should play everyday at AAA. That "better option" is not Patterson (not issued an NRI), so my guess is that if Braun is suspended we will see Gindl or Schafer on the opening day roster unless Melvin/Roenicke think Conrad can play LF.

[paul253]

They aren't kids but to expect them to produce like anything other than

rookies, when only Gamel could truly be referred to as a one time top

prospect, is unrealistic.

 

Schafer would be much more highly looked upon if it weren't for his injuries. His defense is well above average and he has hit at every level he's been in. His OBP was over .400 last year in AAA, his first year at that level. I do think another year would do him well, but I also wouldn't be overly concerned about using him as a platoon player at the major league level if need be. Surely he'd hit at least as good as Gomez does and nobody seems to have a problem with Gomez playing. Schafer's defense isn't as good as Gomez's (whose is?) but it's better than Morgan's from what I hear.

 

I understand the hesitance to play three "rookies" but I also don't like this idea that veterans will automatically be better. Quite honestly there are plenty of players whom I'd be more concerned about playing center field than Logan Schafer and plenty of players I'd be more concerned about playing first base than Mat Gamel.

[JohnBriggs12]

Logan Schafer may not have high rankings by so-called experts that rate prospects, but within the Brewer organization, I believe he is very highly regarded. 2010 was a lost season for him but he rebounded with a very impressive 2011. It's not like he's a come out of nowhere guy. He was a 3rd round pick. If the Brewers deem he's ready then he probably is.

[RockCoCougars]

The problem with Schafer is that from what I've seen, he projects to have basically the same skillset as Morgan, give or take. If Morgan was making huge money and/or had trade value, perhaps that's an opportunity, but I don't see either being the case as we stand. As for Gindl, guys with decent minor league stats have been a dime a dozen for the Brewers over the years. A few have turned out, some have been decent, and most have flopped. Not saying that will be the case, Gindl could turn out to be a stud, but as a rookie, I wouldn't count on him for much. Basically, with both these guys I think that it'd be better to let them play every day in Nashville until at least a semi-regular job opens up. If either came north with the team, I'd be willing to bet that they see little to no playing time.

[gregmag]

The problem with Schafer is that from what I've seen, he projects to have basically the same skillset as Morgan, give or take. If Morgan was making huge money and/or had trade value, perhaps that's an opportunity, but I don't see either being the case as we stand. As for Gindl, guys with decent minor league stats have been a dime a dozen for the Brewers over the years. A few have turned out, some have been decent, and most have flopped. Not saying that will be the case, Gindl could turn out to be a stud, but as a rookie, I wouldn't count on him for much. Basically, with both these guys I think that it'd be better to let them play every day in Nashville until at least a semi-regular job opens up. If either came north with the team, I'd be willing to bet that they see little to no playing time.

 

 

What prospect with comparable numbers to Gindl has "flopped"? Matt LaPorta, I guess. "Decent numbers" is a big generalization -- I suppose you could say Eric Farris has had "decent numbers" if you wanted to. But if we're trying to be more precise than that, what Caleb Gindl precisely did is OPS .862 in AAA as a 22 year-old. You're acting like that's random, meaningless information. I think it's very significant information. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but that's equally true of major league performance.

 

This generic dismissal of rookies based on nothing more than broad generalizations doesn't make any sense to me. First of all, not all rookies are created equal. Of course age matters. Older players, wherever they have been playing, are more experienced and (presumably) more mature. Aoki is in a completely different category; as someone pointed out, he has been playing under MLB conditions in Japan. Yes, all of the guys we're talking about will need to get acquainted with better breaking stuff than they've ever seen on a regular basis, and that's important. But they all have well-developed approaches, and they've made adjustments already at multiple levels.

 

People often act as if doubting rookies is some kind of safe assumption. It isn't. Going with a veteran can be every bit as risky as going with a rookie. The fallacy is that, if you go with a rookie and he flops, you can look at the foregone veteran and assume that he would have performed up to his past standards. But that just isn't reliable -- look at McGehee and Kotsay last year. It is quite possible that the Brewers could doom their chances this year by not giving enough PT to Aoki, Gamel, Green, Schafer, and/or Gindl. No safe assumption is available, so we need to make smart decisions instead.

[RockCoCougars]

The problem with Schafer is that from what I've seen, he projects to have basically the same skillset as Morgan, give or take. If Morgan was making huge money and/or had trade value, perhaps that's an opportunity, but I don't see either being the case as we stand. As for Gindl, guys with decent minor league stats have been a dime a dozen for the Brewers over the years. A few have turned out, some have been decent, and most have flopped. Not saying that will be the case, Gindl could turn out to be a stud, but as a rookie, I wouldn't count on him for much. Basically, with both these guys I think that it'd be better to let them play every day in Nashville until at least a semi-regular job opens up. If either came north with the team, I'd be willing to bet that they see little to no playing time.

 

 

What prospect with comparable numbers to Gindl has "flopped"? Matt LaPorta, I guess. "Decent numbers" is a big generalization -- I suppose you could say Eric Farris has had "decent numbers" if you wanted to. But if we're trying to be more precise than that, what Caleb Gindl precisely did is OPS .862 in AAA as a 22 year-old. You're acting like that's random, meaningless information. I think it's very significant information. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but that's equally true of major league performance.

 

This generic dismissal of rookies based on nothing more than broad generalizations doesn't make any sense to me. First of all, not all rookies are created equal. Of course age matters. Older players, wherever they have been playing, are more experienced and (presumably) more mature. Aoki is in a completely different category; as someone pointed out, he has been playing under MLB conditions in Japan. Yes, all of the guys we're talking about will need to get acquainted with better breaking stuff than they've ever seen on a regular basis, and that's important. But they all have well-developed approaches, and they've made adjustments already at multiple levels.

 

People often act as if doubting rookies is some kind of safe assumption. It isn't. Going with a veteran can be every bit as risky as going with a rookie. The fallacy is that, if you go with a rookie and he flops, you can look at the foregone veteran and assume that he would have performed up to his past standards. But that just isn't reliable -- look at McGehee and Kotsay last year. It is quite possible that the Brewers could doom their chances this year by not giving enough PT to Aoki, Gamel, Green, Schafer, and/or Gindl. No safe assumption is available, so we need to make smart decisions instead.

 

I'm not saying that Gindl is sure to be a bust. It's probably in the 50/50 range. As I've said, the Brewers have had a lot of guys like this fall flat on their faces in the past. I will give Gindl props for his young age and ability to produce as he's moved through each level of the system. Based on that, he could very well turn out to be a very good player, but even if that happens, odds are that he will struggle some at first. My major issue with bringing him up for Opening Day is that I don't believe that they would let him play everyday during the 50 game window (rightly or wrongly). More likely, he would sit on the bench a lot. I think that it would be better to let him play everyday down in AAA.

 

However, my opinion on this is subject to change if he tears up the Cactus League.

[monty57]

Good post Gregmag.

 

Gindl seems to have a good knack for getting on base, which is not a bad thing. The negatives I've read about him - those claiming his ceiling is as a 4th OF - stem from the belief that he doesn't have the prototypical body type of a corner OF. I hope the Brewers don't keep him down solely due to that stereotype. If he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out, but it should be due to his ability and not his height.

 

If we had not signed Aoki, I thought a good approach would have been to sign Johnny Gomes and platoon him in LF with Gindl for the first 50 games. Gomes destroys LHP and Gindl could have "gotten his feet wet" with pretty regular playing time in a platoon, and then gone back to AAA to play everyday when Braun returned, while Gomes could have been the RH power bat off the bench we're missing. If Gindl played adequately in the majors and continued to mature in AAA, the Brewers could think of trading Hart next offseason and supplanting him with Gindl.

 

As it played out, we did sign Aoki, so the above scenario will not transpire. However, we are still going to need a 5th OF if Braun is indeed suspended. I don't like the thought of wasting Gindl or Schafer on the bench for 50 games, but we really don't have much of a choice unless we think Conrad or Green can fill in LF or if we decide to go with four OF, three of which are probably best categorized as CF's.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gindl also didn't display good power outside of the west-coast PCL locales in 2011 iirc. I believe he's going to show that he's got legit power this season, but his otherwise impressive OPS from '11 was definitely inflated largely by the west coast parks.

[nate82]

I think I have said this a few times now but if you want to look at what kind of play Gindl could be just look at Matt Stairs and his numbers in the majors and also look at his numbers from the minors. Somewhat similar players in body type and performance in the minors though I believe Gindl got to AAA faster than Stairs did.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would take a Matt Stairs career in a second.

[JohnBriggs12]

It will take a realization that the the current mix of everyday players is not capable of playoff caliber baseball for them to turn to a guy like Gindl. Right now, they believe the current mix is playoff capable, but that can change quickly. Melvin is not bold enough nor is Gindl quite elite enough at this point for them to break open a spot for him by trading a piece like Hart. An even bigger season than he had in '11 could change the perception on Gindl though too and turn him into a more elite, core type prospect.

[monty57]

It will take a realization that the the current mix of everyday players is not capable of playoff caliber baseball for them to turn to a guy like Gindl. Right now, they believe the current mix is playoff capable, but that can change quickly. Melvin is not bold enough nor is Gindl quite elite enough at this point for them to break open a spot for him by trading a piece like Hart. An even bigger season than he had in '11 could change the perception on Gindl though too and turn him into a more elite, core type prospect.

 

True, but next offseason the equation will have to be whether Gindl + the return from trading Hart is equal or greater than holding Hart.