Deep Down, what are your thoughts about Gamel?

[Bnowell4evr]

At best I think he can be James Loney but I'm expecting much worse.

[RightFieldCoder]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

I know there are different WARs, but Baseball Reference has him at -1.0 WAR in 2011 (-1.4 oWAR with a .4 dWAR). That would make him worse than a "replacement level" 3B on offense and about replacement level defensively. I agree about the dWAR, but will be horrified if his oWAR isn't at least 1.5 WAR better than McSuckee.

[Madtown343]

Why do people think Gamel is going to be bad defensively at 1B? He had good feet, very good range, and soft hands. He is more athletic than Fielder as well.

 

All of those attributes should make for a pretty good defensive first baseman. His only knock would be experience and improving on some of the nuances that come with the position. (picking throws, holding runners, etc.)

 

I think he will actually be above average both offensively and defensively, but like many have said only if he is given the reigns and allowed to play through some possible early struggles. Hart, Weeks, Hardy, and many other high prospect hitters were off to starts as bad as Gamel or worse.

 

He is reportedly in great shape, lost the surfer look, and is motivated to take control of his first real chance. Health and opportunity are all he can ask for the rest is up to him.

[monty57]

Why do people think Gamel is going to be bad defensively at 1B? He had good feet, very good range, and soft hands. He is more athletic than Fielder as well.

 

Not to mention that it should be easier moving from a corner IF position (3B) to 1B than it would be to move from the OF to 1B, and he was given a whole year in AAA to make the transition.

[Ennder]

The inexperience thing is pretty huge to me. I'd assume he is poor defensively to start and I'll be pleasantly surprised if he ends up average or better.

[TooLiveBrew]

At best I think he can be James Loney but I'm expecting much worse.

At best he can be a significantly better hitter than James Loney -- at best, I'd use Chase Utley as an offensive comparison. But keep in mind that's "at best."

Gamel has quite a bit more raw power than Loney does. I really think the thing that shines through brightest as shaping the opinions of fans who've only seen Mat play with the Brewers is lack of familiarity with him & his skillset. The automatic assumptions he's just another 1B who can't really hit (Loney), or that he's going to be a negative in the field... imo this is all due to unfamiliarity with him & not having seen him play.

I don't claim to be some expert, but I can at least say I've watched him several times via MiLB.tv over the past couple seasons in addition to watching him at the big-league level. And I can also say with full confidence that, unless he falls completely on his face and/or is benched really quickly, many fans are going to be downright shocked by how good of a hitter he is. He'll strike out, and some fans will never get over that (like with Weeks), but he'll absolutely hit... as long as he's given the chance to settle into being a big-league regular.

[jmeks23]

I've always liked Gamel, and although he's had some missteps I still think he has plenty of talent.

 

Honestly what still kind of bugs me to this day is he was 23 and a big-league ready bat in 2009, but struggled when he was getting PT so they went with McGehee. Now Mat is 26 and 3 good years of his career are gone just for the stop-gap that was Casey McGehee. Nothing against Casey, he played well enough to earn it in 2009, but now look where we're at. Mat could have been truly coming into his own at the MLB level if given the PT (or at least platooning McGehee) the last 3 years.

 

Instead of a top 100 prospect we now have comparisons to Lyle Overbay. It's kind of a short straw situation for Mat. I just hope my feelings are right and he will be a productive player in the majors, just like he has been for many years in the minors.

[Ennder]

I get what people are saying with the Loney comparison but I think that is underestimating his power a good bit. I think Sean Casey with more strike outs is a better comp for him. 20 HR power, good but not elite BB rate, should hit for a decent average but probably not as high as Casey did.

[rluzinski]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

Fine. You have your opinion, I have mine.

According to Fangraphs:

Hitting: -20.5

Base Running: -5.3

Fielding: 6.6

After adjustments, it equals +.3 WAR or almost perfectly average. Any veteran BF.neter is probably aware of the relatively large uncertainty of that fielding estimate, however. So yeh, I would be happy if Gamel had a 0 or better WAR but I probably wouldn't be happy if he played like McGehee last year, since Mcgehee's true defensive value was probably lower than estimated.

And I will say it again, Gamel has 171 major league AB, so saying he has never hit in the majors is pretty close to like saying a highschool player has never hit well in the majors. All we really have to go by is what he has done in the minors and it looks pretty good. ZiPS projects him to have a .264/.341/.433 line, which sounds reasonable to me.

 

[bjkrautk]

Deep down, I don't care about him being a blocked prospect, the concerns about his defense at 3b or his work ethic generally. I care a little bit about his career OPS in the majors is under .700 (but only a little, since we're looking at less than 200 plate appearances spread across four seasons).

 

If he hits, I'll like him.

If not, I won't.

 

Anything north of an .800 OPS in his first full season of regular playing time in the bigs, and we're good.

[Bnowell4evr]

I get what people are saying with the Loney comparison but I think that is underestimating his power a good bit. I think Sean Casey with more strike outs is a better comp for him. 20 HR power, good but not elite BB rate, should hit for a decent average but probably not as high as Casey did.

I'd argue that Brewer fans are underrating Loney's power because of the stadium he plays in. Just look at his career home and road splits.

Home - .272/.335/.385/.719

Road - .302/.357/.479/.835

[monty57]

I've always liked Gamel, and although he's had some missteps I still think he has plenty of talent.

 

Honestly what still kind of bugs me to this day is he was 23 and a big-league ready bat in 2009, but struggled when he was getting PT so they went with McGehee. Now Mat is 26 and 3 good years of his career are gone just for the stop-gap that was Casey McGehee. Nothing against Casey, he played well enough to earn it in 2009, but now look where we're at. Mat could have been truly coming into his own at the MLB level if given the PT (or at least platooning McGehee) the last 3 years.

 

Instead of a top 100 prospect we now have comparisons to Lyle Overbay. It's kind of a short straw situation for Mat. I just hope my feelings are right and he will be a productive player in the majors, just like he has been for many years in the minors.

 

Of course, you can look at it another way and say that we could now have a player going into his first year of arby, who we could lose in a couple seasons, and instead we have the same player at league minimum who we will have for the next five seasons. We will have Gamel at a relatively inexpensive price tag through his prime. It stinks for Gamel, but is good for the Brewers.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd argue that Brewer fans are underrating Loney's power because of the stadium he plays in. Just look at his career home and road splits.

I'm familiar with Loney's H/R splits, but his past two seasons of performance on the road have stunk as much as his performance at home. He's just not a powerful hitter. If a Loney-caliber hitter (based on what I think Loney's talent is, not small sample splits) is all Gamel winds up to be, I'd be disappointed.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'd argue that Brewer fans are underrating Loney's power because of the stadium he plays in. Just look at his career home and road splits.

I'm familiar with Loney's H/R splits' date=' but his past two seasons of performance on the road have stunk as much as his performance at home. He's just not a powerful hitter. If a Loney-caliber hitter (based on what I think Loney's talent is, not small sample splits) is all Gamel winds up to be, I'd be disappointed.[/quote']You got a point about Loney's H/R splits the last 2 years but I don't consider 1500 PA's to be a small sample size. Zips projects Gamel with 16 HRs over 135 games which is pretty much James Loney level if he played at a different park.

[Warning Track Power]

I'd argue that Brewer fans are underrating Loney's power because of the stadium he plays in. Just look at his career home and road splits.

I'm familiar with Loney's H/R splits' date=' but his past two seasons of performance on the road have stunk as much as his performance at home. He's just not a powerful hitter. If a Loney-caliber hitter (based on what I think Loney's talent is, not small sample splits) is all Gamel winds up to be, I'd be disappointed.[/quote']You got a point about Loney's H/R splits the last 2 years but I don't consider 1500 PA's to be a small sample size. Zips projects Gamel with 16 HRs over 135 games which is pretty much James Loney level if he played at a different park.

 

Gamel with 16 HR in 2012 would be workable for me assuming he hits .270-.280 and drives in 75-85 runs.

 

Keep in mind super prospect Freddie Freeman went .282, 21 HR, 76 RBI in 2011. Anything approaching those numbers from Gamel in 2012 would be great year 1 production in my opinion.

[TooLiveBrew]

You got a point about Loney's H/R splits the last 2 years but I don't consider 1500 PA's to be a small sample size. Zips projects Gamel with 16 HRs over 135 games which is pretty much James Loney level if he played at a different park.

I'm trying not to examine this based on statistical production, but appx. talent level instead. I don't think Loney compares well as a hitter to Gamel. The only way he compares well is that he's not a very good hitter for a 1B, and that's what people have already started to label Gamel. Take a look at Loney's MiLB numbers -- even in the offense-crazy western PCL he didn't really hit home runs with any regularity. These guys are just not good comparisons imo. I can't guarantee that Gamel will prove his doubters wrong, but I think it's better to examine him from a scouting standpoint than a statistical one at this point. Even if you go with stats, Loney's MiLB career doesn't even come close to Gamel's.

The funny thing, to me, on the stat-based Gamel examinations, is that two seasons of a throwaway number of PAs is what has everyone concerned (beyond assumptions about his character). If the Brewers had never given Mat cups of coffee in 2010 & '11, you're looking at a guy with a MLB career OPS of about .760, and who the casual fan wouldn't assume "can't hit big-league pitching". But an unproductive 15 PAs in '10, & 26 PAs in '11 so greatly affect the small sample that is Gamel's MLB career up to now, that instead people are convinced this is just another failed prospect we're talking about here. In the closest thing he's ever had to meaningful big-league playing time, Gamel has already basically matched Loney, and that was two full seasons ago. Mat's a better hitter now than he was in '09, and as he continues to develop & display his skills, hopes for just a mid-.700s OPS will be a thing of the past imo.

[Raw Biz]

TooLiveBrew]

You got a point about Loney's H/R splits the last 2 years but I don't consider 1500 PA's to be a small sample size. Zips projects Gamel with 16 HRs over 135 games which is pretty much James Loney level if he played at a different park.

I'm trying not to examine this based on statistical production, but appx. talent level instead. I don't think Loney compares well as a hitter to Gamel. The only way he compares well is that he's not a very good hitter for a 1B, and that's what people have already started to label Gamel. Take a look at Loney's MiLB numbers -- even in the offense-crazy western PCL he didn't really hit home runs with any regularity. These guys are just not good comparisons imo. I can't guarantee that Gamel will prove his doubters wrong, but I think it's better to examine him from a scouting standpoint than a statistical one at this point. Even if you go with stats, Loney's MiLB career doesn't even come close to Gamel's.

The funny thing, to me, on the stat-based Gamel examinations, is that two seasons of a throwaway number of PAs is what has everyone concerned (beyond assumptions about his character). If the Brewers had never given Mat cups of coffee in 2010 & '11, you're looking at a guy with a MLB career OPS of about .760, and who the casual fan wouldn't assume "can't hit big-league pitching". But an unproductive 15 PAs in '10, & 26 PAs in '11 so greatly affect the small sample that is Gamel's MLB career up to now, that instead people are convinced this is just another failed prospect we're talking about here. In the closest thing he's ever had to meaningful big-league playing time, Gamel has already basically matched Loney, and that was two full seasons ago. Mat's a better hitter now than he was in '09, and as he continues to develop & display his skills, hopes for just a mid-.700s OPS will be a thing of the past imo.

That is probably the best post I've seen written on Gamel. Nice job TLB. Like you said, you can't really go off MLB stats because there basically isn't anything there. If people would instead focus on his MiLB stats, scouting reports, their eyes, and possibly even what he did with semi-regular PT as a 23 year old, then I think they will have a better understanding of what to expect. His 10/11 numbers, the crap about his showing up out of shape 3 years ago, Money's comments, etc. should be given little, if any, weight IMO.

[Bnowell4evr]

TooLiveBrew]

Bnowell4evr wrote:

You got a point about Loney's H/R splits the last 2 years but I don't consider 1500 PA's to be a small sample size. Zips projects Gamel with 16 HRs over 135 games which is pretty much James Loney level if he played at a different park.

I'm trying not to examine this based on statistical production, but appx. talent level instead. I don't think Loney compares well as a hitter to Gamel. The only way he compares well is that he's not a very good hitter for a 1B, and that's what people have already started to label Gamel. Take a look at Loney's MiLB numbers -- even in the offense-crazy western PCL he didn't really hit home runs with any regularity. These guys are just not good comparisons imo. I can't guarantee that Gamel will prove his doubters wrong, but I think it's better to examine him from a scouting standpoint than a statistical one at this point. Even if you go with stats, Loney's MiLB career doesn't even come close to Gamel's.

The funny thing, to me, on the stat-based Gamel examinations, is that two seasons of a throwaway number of PAs is what has everyone concerned (beyond assumptions about his character). If the Brewers had never given Mat cups of coffee in 2010 & '11, you're looking at a guy with a MLB career OPS of about .760, and who the casual fan wouldn't assume "can't hit big-league pitching". But an unproductive 15 PAs in '10, & 26 PAs in '11 so greatly affect the small sample that is Gamel's MLB career up to now, that instead people are convinced this is just another failed prospect we're talking about here. In the closest thing he's ever had to meaningful big-league playing time, Gamel has already basically matched Loney, and that was two full seasons ago. Mat's a better hitter now than he was in '09, and as he continues to develop & display his skills, hopes for just a mid-.700s OPS will be a thing of the past imo.

This is a great post but you also have to remember that Loney was a lot younger at each level compared to Gamel. When they were 20 Loney was playing in AA meanwhile Gamel was just in A ball which is a big difference considering power tends to come with age. You had to wait until they were 22 to judge their careers equally at the same level.

Loney @ age 22

AAA - .380/.426/.546/.973

MLB - .284/.342/.559/.901

Gamel @ age 22

AAA - .238/.304/.381/.685

Loney @ age 23

AAA - .279/.345/.382/.727

MLB - .331/.381/.538/.919

Gamel @ age 23

AAA - .278/.367/.473/.839

MLB - .242/.338/.422/.760

[nate82]

Deep down my biggest fear is that Gamel comes into spring training and does something stupid like injure himself while taking batting practice because he didn't warm up correctly or something that he does that lands him in the dog house where he never gets out of it and is either traded or DFA'd because of that.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I still have hope for Mat. All I want for him is to get a legit shot to keep the job. Obviously following Prince is a huge obstacle for him and I hope fans are patient with him in a full time role. It's hard to ignore what he did in the minors so I hope he gets a fair chance and he sinks or swims. Not to mention we really need his low salary in this payroll.

[TooLiveBrew]

[Y]ou also have to remember that Loney was a lot younger at each level compared to Gamel.

 

This is a good counterpoint. However, the difference in power potential/ability between both players is pretty apparent, not to mention that Loney's PCL experience (Las Vegas) was significantly more hitter-friendly than Gamel's at Nashville.

 

Another kinda funny or odd thing in looking at Loney & Gamel is that Gamel easily could have been a MLB regular at the same age Loney became one (23), but we all know how that wound up for Mat. Here's hoping 2012 is a better story.

[BrewCrewForever]

Deep down, I like Gamel a lot. Always have. Thought he got a bit of a raw deal in 2009 and after that he sure seemed to have a bit of a lazy attitude. However, he is a very talented hitter who still has some promise. I think he will make the most of this opportunity.

 

I think in his first full, big league season he can hit .270/.350/.475 with 20 HR and a bunch of doubles. If he puts up a line close to that I would be pretty happy. Anything above that and I would be ecstatic.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Deep down my feelings for Mat are conflicted. While I'm having fun with him in the short term, I just don't see the relationship turning into something worthy of a long term commitment. So I guess if I'm being honest I'll enjoy my time spent with Mat, but I might have a little affair on the side. Basically I'd like Mat to stay interested but only until I can find my Prince that sweeps me off my feet.

[dunder]

Wow, we have a lot of time in the world these days. We have 62 pages of posts about if Braun has a cold sore.

Then we are going to disect every time Gamel came onto the field, way back to A ball, what expresssion he had on his face and what it means.

I just want to watch Mat play. I am thinking Overbay right now. But, honestly, the guy should get two years in the majors before he is released. His expression as he took batting practice in 2007? I dont care. Maybe he had a hemorrhoid.

[igor67]

Deep Down II

.220 .281 .390 .672

 

Is super Prospect Mike Trout's line after 135 PAs and people still like him.