Deep Down, what are your thoughts about Gamel?

[Raw Biz]

Taylor Green is listed at #2 on the depth chart at 1B. If Green is hitting .325 at AAA, while Gamel is languishing, I don't think they will wait long to make a switch. Aoki still isn't showing up in the depth chart, but I find in interesting that they had Green listed 3rd in LF having never played an inning in the OF in the minors. It would appear that had they not signed Aoki, they were ready to stick Green out there for 50 games. That would have made things interesting when Braun got back if Green were outhitting Gamel.

How accurate are those depth charts? I always thought that was just the web guys (like McCalvy) guessing about who will back up what.

Yeah I don't put much stock into any online depth charts because the people in charge (i.e. managers, coaches, etc.) can change their minds a lot quicker than someone who updates a webpage.

[CheezWizHed]

Deep down, I think Mat Gamel might have just replaced YB in BF forums. At least the YB of the preseason...

 

I also think he is the biggest question mark on the team. We pretty much know what we will get out of our other starters, but large swings in the predictions for Mat.

 

I predict that it "clicks" for him this year with a solid chance to play everyday and he has a 800 OPS.

[monty57]

Deep down, I think Mat Gamel has always been a good hitter, and will be a good hitter at the MLB level. The biggest obstacle will be Roenicke if he gives Gamel a short leash and routinely benches him to put Hart at 1B. If Braun is suspended, I don't think this will be much of an issue for at least the first 50 games, so Gamel should get almost two months of continuous PT and I hope he shines.

 

Deep down I also believe that if Gamel is not successful, it will be very difficult for any rookie position player to ever garner playing time in Milwaukee in the near future.

[MLS1965]

6 year season ticket holder in Nashville I've know Mat since he first arrived here. I saw a big improvement last year when he played 1st. It looked like he was enjoying himself. It was funny too. Early last season we talked and I just said " Dude.. 1st base..?" Mat chuckled and with a grin said "Yea, I've not played first since little league"

[thebruce44]

Deep down, I don't know why people are so against him.

 

I think he will eventually top out as a 4-5 WAR player who will hit .300+ and be around 25-30 HRs. This year, I would like to see him be above average on offense, which I don't think is out of the question at all. I expect his defense to be better than Prince's and I think he will continue to develop at 1B, making the other infielders better.

I agree but here are some of the reasons I can think of for why people are down on him

1. Don Money's and Ken Macha's comments. Both were pretty hard on Mat

2. Mat seeming to come in out of shape the year he had a chance to make the team out of Spring Training

3. Over-reaction to small-sample size the last two year when he was a pinch hitter

4. The Prince Factor - It is hard to follow Prince

 

I've brought this up in another thread, but who hasn't Money trashed in the media at this point? I'm a fan of making sure these kids have thick skin, but I don't know if I like it coming from their coach. Still though, I can see how people would run with some of his comments. Don't forget, TH basically made it his life's mission to make Gamel look bad too, just as he did with Weeks previously. We saw how that worked out for Tom.

[brettac1]

Deep down, I'm excited to see him get a legitimate chance to play at the MLB level. I expect him to take the ball and run with it.

[logan82]

Deep down, I'm excited to see him get a legitimate chance to play at the MLB level. I expect him to take the ball and run with it.

Wrong sport dude. You are thinking of football.

[Baldkin]

I expect he'll hit around .300, OBP 60ish points higher than that, and slug a bit over .400.

 

Also, he is going to wow some people with his defense at 1B and make a lot of people realize how bad Prince really was with the glove.

[JJHardy7]

Deep down, I think Gamel will have a good year. I've been a fan for awhile. I think his biggest issue is replacing Fielder. He could be an average 1B this year and that won't be enough for most people.

 

I just hope he gets the playing time. It's time to see what we can do and stop having sample size debates or comments about how he can or can't hit MLB pitching. Time to see if he can over an extended period of time!

 

I think if Mat clicks...this team will have a legit chance to get in the playoffs.

 

Also, I really hope he doesn't become the YB.

[Mike]

I think the bad attitude talk, etc must be thrown out the window. There are many players in the history of the game that are jackwagons. GM's and field managers do not care about that, they care about production. The best thing to tell Gamel is "Don't think Mat, it will only hurt the team".

 

Having said that, there is no doubt that he has hit MiLB RH pitching well and I would expect that to continue. I would also bet (having watched him in many Nashville games) to struggle against LH pitching. It is not a coincidence that Milwaukee feels the same way otherwise they would not have asked Corey to "play some 1B".

 

So, he can't hit LH pitching and he is not strong defensively..........other than that he is a good player.

[TheCrew07]

I have a ton of confidence in Mat's natural athletic ability, what I don't like is the way the Brewers have wasted his service time, nor do I like the way this is setting up.

 

I said what I had to say about the 1B situation in the Hart to 1B thread, but I'm concerned that if Mat struggles early he'll start pressing and I don't like where it will go from there. He'll get benched, press when he gets back in the line-up, and he'll experience a season like Escobar's 2010 where he's never allowed to play through anything and become the whipping boy. Confidence is such a fragile thing for most people, it's almost easier for me to root for ultra confident guys like Braun and Lawrie. I worry(ied) more about those guys putting their tools together than I did them going into a mental funk, for most of the rest of young players, even Prince when he came up and in his first full season, I find myself hoping for the best and fearing the worst. Part of that I'm sure is that I want so badly for our home grown players to succeed that I struggle balancing my enthusiasm and homerism after following them for years in the minors against the reality that on average a certain percentage of prospects will fail. I just want the failures to be other teams' prospects.

 

If Mat is given a chance to settle in he will hit (I like the 300 ABs number thrown out earlier), in that I have no doubt. I think his natural fielding ability and range will surprise people, I'm curious how well he'll do digging balls and around the bag. Someone in a different thread pegged his WAR for this season at something like 1.5, (maybe it was .5?), whatever it was I think Mat could have been an average MLB 1B in 2008, if he plays to his potential there's no reason he couldn't be a 3 WAR or better player this season. He's always walked, hit for average, and hit for power, other than his body language in 2009 and the rigged competition that saw McGehee take the 3B job, there aren't many flaws to complain about other than an improving K rate and the fact that he's not going to hit HRs like Fielder did.

 

Personally I'd feel quite a bit better about the situation if Gamel had been given an equal opportunity to beat out McGehee in 2009 and was moving to 1B because of defensive deficiencies instead of having languished in the minors waiting for opportunity to open up in 2012. I'm not looking to get into another circular debate about that situation, I just honestly believe that given an equal opportunity he beats out McGehee rather easily, even with his spring training "issues" (I use that term loosely, I think most of that was overblown) that season. However the fact that he didn't report early, overslept the first or second day, and then got hurt seemed to put him in Macha's doghouse and the rest is history. It's been my experience that today's youth is simply higher maintenance and you're going to have work through some issues that didn't happen much in the past, it's a different generation with a much different take on life. I think the situation was needlessly escalated by the coaching staff and the media. Now he's the guy breaking into the big leagues while following a legend, the organization already publicly announced a back up plan, and a significant portion of the fan base expects him to fail miserably.

 

He's been backed into a corner with no margin for error and I sincerely hope Mat seizes the opportunity this time and comes out swinging. I believe he's got the talent to be a legit .850-.900 OPS hitter in the majors and I've never personally wanted a prospect to succeed as much as I do Gamel. Please Mat, please play well.

[thebruce44]

Having said that, there is no doubt that he has hit MiLB RH pitching well and I would expect that to continue. I would also bet (having watched him in many Nashville games) to struggle against LH pitching. It is not a coincidence that Milwaukee feels the same way otherwise they would not have asked Corey to "play some 1B".

 

So, he can't hit LH pitching and he is not strong defensively..........other than that he is a good player.

Other than last year, he has hit LH pitching better than RH pitching, even in Nashville. Did you only watch him last year?

I don't think he is a platoon candidate. That swing should hold up no matter what arm the pitcher uses.

[TheCrew07]

As far as Wolf goes, he's been fine, he's just not a #2. I originally said by the final of year of his deal he'd be our 4th or 5th best pitcher and be making that kind of money, which was the basis for my disdain. Obviously I didn't count on acquiring Greinke or Marcum, I was thinking that Hardy and Fielder would be traded for pitching and Parra would work, not to mention our minor league arms were shining much brighter then, but I'm still not thrilled about paying Wolf's contract to our 4th starter. Yes I get that it's a positive from a talent standpoint to have that deep of a rotation, but I would have rather the Brewers went about it a different way. I'm not one of these people who think the Brewers should be maxing out the payroll every year just because they can, I'm more concerned with how they spend money than if they actually spend it. This is why I bag on Melvin, because we have vastly different opinions of where the value lies in baseball and the best way to build a team, we are simply polar opposites.

 

Even if Wolf falls flat on his face this season or gets injured the deal was one of Melvin's better moves in FA, which is probably a net positive even from my perspective. Wolf has certainly been a step up from Suppan, Davis, Looper, Gagne, Hoffman, Hawkins, and Riske deals where guys only performed for half their contract, if that. I'm not willing to call it a step in the right direction because I'm fiercely opposed to signing FA pitching, but the move certainly hasn't weighed the team down at all.

[logan82]

So, he can't hit LH pitching and he is not strong defensively..........other than that he is a good player.

 

Th platoon thing was covered before but he should be good on defense and probably above average for a 1B. His weakness at 3B was throwing. Not much throwing to do at 1B.

[Eye Black]

I saw the comparison to Overbay, and that's what I've expected as well. There have been lots of similarities in their career paths (long term prospect status, hit the heck out of the ball in the minors, blocked in the majors, with relatively poor early MLB performance on a small sample, right down to both being 27 years old when given the shot in Milwaukee).

If he approaches Overbay's inaugural season in Milwaukee I would be thrilled. That would go well beyond my expectations and cement his place in the every day line-up.

Looking at Baseball Reference, J.T. Snow is another LH hitting 1B who didn't "break out" until his age 27 season. While he had more MLB experience at age 27 (just under 200 games), he put up very similar stats to Mat's in the minors.

 

[Ennder]

Wolf was never meant to be a #2 pitcher and he wasn't paid like one. #2 money would be something like $14M a year like say Ryan Dempster or Jake Peavy made. #3 money is more like $10M a year like Ted Lilly. Wolf has been an above average #3 pitcher by stats so far during the contract so unless he falls flat this season it is going to come out as a big win. I was more than a little worried that this 3rd year is the part that we would regret so hopefully I was wrong.

[razzzorsharp]

Deep down I still enjoy baseball more than winning. With that in mind what excites me about this upcoming season is not the prospects of playoffs or even the World Series, it's the thought of a guy like Gamel, a player that I have been watching/following for years, finally getting his chance. I don't know what he will do, but I, along with many others it seems, hope that he gets a fair shake from the management, fellow players, and the fans before any rush to judgement is made.

[jhart05]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

[Ennder]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

[umphrey]

Wolf was never meant to be a #2 pitcher and he wasn't paid like one. #2 money would be something like $14M a year like say Ryan Dempster or Jake Peavy made. #3 money is more like $10M a year like Ted Lilly. Wolf has been an above average #3 pitcher by stats so far during the contract so unless he falls flat this season it is going to come out as a big win. I was more than a little worried that this 3rd year is the part that we would regret so hopefully I was wrong.

 

 

I think in hind sight it was a solid signing. Personally I really value what he brings to the table as a lefty who pitches a lot of innings and is consistent, despite not having great stuff.

[danzig6767]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

I won't take it because i don't care what WAR stats said about Casey last year, he sucked and if Gamel plays at the same level, he should be benched much sooner than McGehee was and i'm a big supporter of Matt.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I don't see how anyone can say McGehee was anything other than terrible in 2011. There's a reason he didn't start in the playoffs. Gamel having that type of season would be a disaster for his career at this point.

[jhart05]

I think Gamel will be marginally better than the 2011 version of McGehee.

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

Fine. You have your opinion, I have mine.

[Mass Haas]

Could someone do the homework and determine how many (potential) LH starting pitchers the Crew might face, let's say, over the first six weeks? Obviously it will be an inexact estimate. Will Mat be sitting in series one vs. Jaime Garcia, for instance? Would love to see Mat starting in say, 45 of the first 50 contests.

[Ennder]

I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it!

I won't take it because i don't care what WAR stats said about Casey last year, he sucked and if Gamel plays at the same level, he should be benched much sooner than McGehee was and i'm a big supporter of Matt.

His defense really wasn't bad at all last year, wouldn't surprise me if he was actually above average there. I would tend to agree that he is a good case for those who dislike WAR though since he was pretty miserable overall. My post was meant to be lighthearted but it obviously wasn't taken that way given the responses to it. If Gamel can put up a positive WAR though I'd be fine with it even if it is just something like a 0.3. Obviously in his case it would probably be negative fielding and positive hitting. I'm betting he is more of a 1-2 WAR type player, .800 OPS with bad defense.