2012 NL Central: Contenders Comparison

[brettac1]

Holiday has been pretty durable for most of his career.

[rluzinski]

No way is Greinke the 5th or 6th best starter among these three teams. In fact, ZiPS has Greinke as best:

 

Name ERA IP

Greinke 2.98 199

Wainwright 3.12 173

Latos 3.38 192

Gallardo 3.46 195

Carpenter 3.49 201

Marcum 3.51 151

Garcia 3.58 184

Cueto 3.63 173

 

These numbers are obviously not gospel but I think people are once again undervaluing Greinke and overvaluing Gallardo.

 

http://www.baseballthinkf...jections_cincinnati_reds

http://www.baseballthinkf...tions_milwaukee_brewers/

http://www.baseballthinkf...ns_-_st._louis_cardinals

[bork]

	CIN	WAR	ZiPs	MIL	WAR	ZiPs	STL	WAR	ZiPs
SP1	Cueto	4.3	110	Gallardo	2.7	117	Wainwright	5.9	121
SP2	Latos	2.6	119	Greinke	1.7	136	Carpenter	3.7	108
SP3	Arroyo	-0.5	83	Marcum	3.3	115	Lohse	2.6	86
SP4	Bailey	0.7	94	Wolf	3.1	100	Garcia	0.9	105
SP5	Leake	2.1	91	Narveson	0.9	94	Westbrook	0	83
		9.2	99.4		11.7	112		13.1	101
CL	Madson	2.2	132	Axford	2.7	132	Motte	1.4	120
SU	Chapman	0.6	104	Rodriguez	1.1	125	Salas	2.3	117
		2.8	118		3.8	129		3.7	119
C	Hanigan	1.8	92	Lucroy	1.2	85	Molina	3.9	101
1B	Votto	6.5	148	Gamel	-0.5	107	Berkman	5.2	132
2B	Phillips	4.1	104	Weeks	3	116	Schumaker	0.6	86
3B	Rolen	0.6	100	Ramirez	3.6	117	Freese	1.8	98
SS	Cozart	0.7	86	Gonzalez	1.1	81	Furcal	1.4	96
LF	Heisey	1.5	102	Braun	7.7	135	Holliday	4.1	132
CF	Stubbs	2.9	88	Morgan	2	83	Beltran	3.4	126
RF	Bruce	1.2	116	Hart	4	116	Craig	1.9	112
		19.3	105		22.1	105		22.3	110

ZiPs is ERA+ or OPS+. WAR numbers are from last year, except for Wainwright.

[reillymcshane]

It probably all comes down to staying healthy. The team that stays healthy will win it.

 

I worry more about the Reds than the Cardinals. The Cards have too many key players who are dangerously old or have significant injury history. Wainwright (coming of Tommy John), Carpenter (age), Berkman (age), Furcal (injuries), Beltran (age). Even Holiday is showing signs of age.

 

The Crew have Braun's suspension issue, plus the typical Weeks injury worries. Ramirez is getting old.

 

The Reds have some injury concerns, plus age with Rolen.

 

As I said to start, the team that stays healthy will win it.

 

Should be an exciting year.

[TooLiveBrew]

No way is Greinke the 5th or 6th best starter among these three teams.

 

Where did anyone say anything about this?

[stoutdude04]

I thought I heard or read that Chapman was going to be starting this year? Or maybe I'm thinking Feliz.

[Ennder]

No way is Greinke the 5th or 6th best starter among these three teams.

 

Where did anyone say anything about this?

Well if he is the 2nd best #2 out of the 3 teams it suggests that the #1's are all better than him and at least one #2 which makes him 5th best. I still think the biggest fault with this is Phillips not being the top 2B, he has just been better than Weeks over the past few seasons especially when you count durability.

[TooLiveBrew]

All I did was use the depth charts on the teams' websites. I think people are reading too much into this.

 

 

I still think the biggest fault with this is Phillips not being the top 2B, he has just been better than Weeks over the past few seasons especially when you count durability.

 

Well feel free to do your own, I said right off the bat this was a very informal thing.

[Ennder]

Sure it is subjective, it just seems odd because in this case it is so over the top clear cut.

 

Phillips WAR for the past 5 seasons.... 6.0, 4.4, 3.3, 3.3, 5.1. .784 OPS, very good defense.

Weeks WAR for the past 5 seasons.... 3.7, 6.5, 1.4, 2.6, 3.4. .805 OPS, giving him the benefit of the doubt we'll call it average defense.

 

Phillips has a better WAR over the past season, past 2 seasons, past 3 seasons, past 4 seasons and past 5 seasons. If you match it up by best season to worst season WAR Weeks loses almost every matchup as well.

 

At best if both healthy I'd think they are a wash but Weeks has so much more of an injury history this should be clear cut. Most of it I can just think to myself I disagree but it is close enough that I can just chalk it up to being subjective, 2B is just clear cut Phillips to me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes. My guess for next season is that Weeks stays healthy & outperforms Phillips. Maybe I'll be wrong. But it's not that big of a deal. Honestly please do one yourself, I'd love to see lots of other people's takes.

[jhart05]

CBS Sportsline has a power rankings out today. They have the Brewers behind the Kansas City Royals. The Brewers are 18th! Ouch. Here is their snip it on the Brewers.

Good business:[/b] Aramis Ramirez doesn't help the righty/lefty balance, but he remains a credible middle-of-the-order bat. Bad business:[/b] Replacing Yuniesky Betancourt with Alex Gonzalez is like replacing a gently stewed diaper with a decaying ferret. Shortstop may not be the easiest position to fill nowadays, but come on. Prognosis as of 11:14 a.m. GMT on Jan. 26, 2012:[/b] It would be a lot rosier if undercover Cardinals operatives didn't frame teetotaling family man Ryan Braun by slipping all that synthetic testosterone into his soup.

I can do without the comments, but as far as the rankings go, It's about where I think the Crew is this year. Maybe 3 spots higher.

[Ennder]

Yes. My guess for next season is that Weeks stays healthy & outperforms Phillips. Maybe I'll be wrong. But it's not that big of a deal. Honestly please do one yourself, I'd love to see lots of other people's takes.

I agree with almost everything so don't need to do one http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif. I'll take Greinke over Latos and Phillips over Weeks, rest of it I agree with and don't see where anyone can disagree outside of the Braun vs Holiday area. most of it is a complete no brainer.