2012 NL Central: Contenders Comparison

[TooLiveBrew]

Since there's a relatively clear-cut top tier of three teams in the Central for 2012, I thought comparing them position-by-position might be fun. For quick help, I used the depth charts from the official sites for the Reds & Cards. The checkmarks next to player names indicates which team 'wins' each category; I did my best to avoid any homer bias.

Bear with me... for some reason I can't get the code function/tags to format properly without first posting this mess & then going back to edit. See next post for the chart.

[TooLiveBrew]

 CIN MIL STL
SP1 Cueto Gallardo + Wainwright
SP2 Latos + Greinke Carpenter
SP3 Arroyo Marcum + Lohse
SP4 Bailey Wolf Garcia +
SP5 Leake + Narveson Westbrook

BP1 Madson Axford + Motte
BP2 Chapman + Rodriguez Salas
BPR +

C Hanigan Lucroy Molina +
1B Votto + Gamel Berkman
2B Phillips Weeks + Schumaker
3B Rolen Ramirez + Freese
SS Cozart Gonzalez Furcal +
LF Heisey Braun Holliday +
CF Stubbs Morgan/Aoki/Gomez Jay/Beltran +
RF Bruce + Hart Beltran/Craig

Bench +

EDIT: Finally done.

EDIT 2: "BPR" is my crude abbreviation for 'rest of bullpen'

EDIT 3: I should note these are my own personal guesses/predictions for the 2012 season, not overall player value

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I'm not sold on Latos. We'll have to see how he does away from Petco.

[MVP2110]

You don't have a checkmark by SS and I am assuming your counting on Braun getting suspended or no way Holliday is better than him?

[patrickgpe]

You don't have a checkmark by SS and I am assuming your counting on Braun getting suspended or no way Holliday is better than him?

close edge to furcal, but its close

[Raw Biz]

I like Freese a lot and I think Braun is definitely better than Holliday (unless you're taking into account suspension). Other than that, I'd probably agree with the rest.

[TooLiveBrew]

Still working on formatting it & finishing it up, sorry for the delay... stupid coding/tags

[Schlitz001]

Wainwrght is coming off of TJ surgery and Gallardo has the age advantage, but I would say that Wainwright is the better pitcher of the two.

 

I know it's still early, but do you have an idea of who will fill out the benches on both teams?

[TooLiveBrew]

I like Freese a lot and I think Braun is definitely better than Holliday (unless you're taking into account suspension). Other than that, I'd probably agree with the rest.

Yep, I weighed in (very unscientifically & unmathematically) other considerations... like age, durability, possible suspension in Braun's case, change in ballparks, etc.

Like I would say that Carpenter is the best of those three #2 starters, but given that he's entering his age-37 season, has averaged well over 200 IP for the past three seasons, & is pretty susceptible to injury, I went with Latos. And I didn't have Latos ahead of Greinke by much, if anything, that's probably closer to a coin-flip, and the #2 SP is probably the closest category amongst all three teams.

And on Freese, I get that he was insanely hot in the postseason & flashed some next-level hitting ability, but he's probably not much more durable at this point than Rolen or Ramirez, which is saying something. Freese was my 2nd place third baseman, if that matters to anyone.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wainwrght is coming off of TJ surgery and Gallardo has the age advantage, but I would say that Wainwright is the better pitcher of the two.

 

I know it's still early, but do you have an idea of who will fill out the benches on both teams?

1) Probably correct, but I think any objective comparison of those two at this point would have to be largely based on injury/durability... and Yo's major injury had nothing to do with his arm or delivery. Much like with Carpenter, the Cards have the most talented player of the three teams, but durability cuts into his value. And actually Wainwright is a great guy to discuss here, when healthy he's been that much better than either Gallardo or Cueto. I probably could've given the nod to the Cards there. Either way, all three teams are very close at SP1 & SP2, there's not much separation there.

2) Not really, to be honest. I almost left the Bench line blank & didn't pick any winner. All I did was dig around each team's official site's roster & depth chart pages; I probably compared four or five guys on each team, & would've missed any NRI guys (Izturis/Conrad) the Reds or Cards have signed. Even so, none of these three benches really looks all that great or terrible, and I think the Brewers have quite a bit of depth there, so I went with them. Another close category that I probably have zero business picking a 'winner' for. http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I'd take Greinke over Latos, I'd take him over Gallardo too though. I'd give the edge to Phillips at 2B. Weeks might have a higher peek but Phillips has been better over the long term by a pretty significant amount.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Latos is really getting punished for having been developed & brought up by the Pads. His ERA will inevitably jump now that half his games are in an extreme hitters' park, after playing half in the most extreme pitchers' park. But the guy can pitch, he's not just some fluky product of his park. Like I said, Greinke/Latos is a tossup for me, & Carpenter would be the clear choice if not for age & injury history.

[brettac1]

I think Devin Mesoraco will end up catching more games for the Reds than Hanigan, and he's going to be very, very good.

[fondybrewfan]

I will also add that if Freese is anything near what he was in the postseason; him and Aram might be neck and neck.

 

Also it it very close between Phillips and Weeks, I wouldn't give either one a clear edge.

 

Basically I think you have 3 very evenly matched teams

[TooLiveBrew]

At catcher, I think the Brewers are probably third out of three already, even if Hanigan does wind up playing the bulk of the season (he's listed as the starter at C on the Reds' website, so I just went with that). Hanigan's defense (iirc) is notably better than Lucroy's. If Mesoraco does indeed wind up winning the job & performing well, then the Brewers are just that much further behind at catcher.

Basically I think you have 3 very evenly matched teams

Yep, even though the motivation for doing this was that it seems to be a close, three-horse race, I was surprised just how close the decisions are at each position, & how close the tallies wound up, overall.

[TooLiveBrew]

do you have an idea of who will fill out the benches on both teams?

To dig into this a bit further, I think you start with the Brewers' bench candidates: Green, Kottaras, Aoki/Plush/Gomez, Izturis, Conrad, Schafer, Wheeler

 

I don't think I'm missing anyone there, could be though. Kottaras, Conrad & Green are the closest things to power bench bats the Brewers have right now, which to me is the #1 offensive element of a bench. Izturis & Green should handle the IF pretty well for reserves, Kottaras and Aoki/Plush/Gomez all seem to be givens to make the 25-man. Schafer & Wheeler will probably be sent to Nashville, & if the Brewers like what they see from Conrad's bat, Green might wind up repeating AAA as well.

 

Overall a decent bench group for the Brewers, but nothing to me that screams 'optimal bench'

[owbc]

Interesting discussion. I agree there is no clear-cut winner, injuries and deadline trades are going to have a big impact most likely.

 

If you added a check for coaching, I would give it to the Brewers. The Cards/Cubs have too much inexperience to make a determination at this point, although Roenicke had plenty of questionable decisions in 2011.

[jjkoestler]

I cannot see the check marks. Did Yuku eat them?

[TooLiveBrew]

I cannot see the check marks. Did Yuku eat them?

Hmm... I did copy & paste the checkmarks, let me try a different icon... went with a plus sign

[jjkoestler]

I cannot see the check marks. Did Yuku eat them?

Hmm... I did copy & paste the checkmarks, let me try a different icon... went with a plus sign

Thanks. I can see the plus signs.

[jjkoestler]

 CIN MIL STL
SP1 Cueto Gallardo + Wainwright
SP2 Latos Greinke + Carpenter
SP3 Arroyo Marcum + Lohse
SP4 Bailey Wolf Garcia +
SP5 Leake + Narveson Westbrook

BP1 Madson Axford + Motte
BP2 Chapman Rodriguez + Salas


C Hanigan Lucroy Molina +
1B Votto + Gamel Berkman
2B Phillips Weeks + Schumaker
3B Rolen Ramirez + Freese
SS Cozart Gonzalez Furcal +
LF Heisey Braun + Holliday 
CF Stubbs Morgan/Aoki/Gomez Jay/Beltran +
RF Bruce Hart + Beltran/Craig I'd rather have Braun for 112 games than Matt Holliday for 162. 

[jjfanec]

CBS Sportsline has a power rankings out today. They have the Brewers behind the Kansas City Royals. The Brewers are 18th! Ouch. Here is their snip it on the Brewers.

Good business:[/b] Aramis Ramirez doesn't help the righty/lefty balance, but he remains a credible middle-of-the-order bat. Bad business:[/b] Replacing Yuniesky Betancourt with Alex Gonzalez is like replacing a gently stewed diaper with a decaying ferret. Shortstop may not be the easiest position to fill nowadays, but come on. Prognosis as of 11:14 a.m. GMT on Jan. 26, 2012:[/b] It would be a lot rosier if undercover Cardinals operatives didn't frame teetotaling family man Ryan Braun by slipping all that synthetic testosterone into his soup.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, that 'piece' is startlingly unprofessional & juvenile. Not to mention moderately researched at best.

[umphrey]

The Reds are the best team to me. Latos will be good, Leake and Cueto are good. Arroyo is crazy bad though. They have some flaws on offense like Stubbs and Rolen are awful.

The Cards are a house of Cards, they have some upside as a team, but losing TLR/Duncan is going to affect them...and Pujols of course. Wainwright, Carpenter, Freese, Furcal, Holliday, Beltran, Berkman, relying on all of those guys to stay healthy would scare the hell out of me. I think they are set up for a massive crash next year.

The Brewers, not as good as last year, but fairly similar team.

right now, Reds > Brewers > Cardinals

[craigharmann]

I'd rather have Braun for 112 games than Matt Holliday for 162. 

Holliday for 162 is laughable! He'll probably miss 10 games with a hangnail, 15 with a headache and 25 with an undetermined "ouchie".